March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

I had a light dusting of snow overnight and some wet flurries this morning.

[Geos]

Made it to 32 deg. here. Bright and blue today!

[Jesse]

Frosty morning earlier at 31, now 42 with bright sunshine. Great day.

[dairyd]

maybe the euro is going to come through with a shot of  genuine spring.

 

[ShawniganLake]

I had a light dusting of snow overnight and some wet flurries this morning.

A light coating of slushy snow overnight here. Low of 30F.

[Jesse]

PDX even got a freeze this morning.

[Bryant]

Looks nice and rainy for the foreseeable future

[FroYoBro]

Beautiful Sunday before more gross weather.

[Jesse]

Beautiful Sunday before more gross weather.

Life truly sucks.

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully setting us up for a sunny hot summer.

[dairyd]

This morning's runs pushing Wed's system to the west/north.  Thankfully, looks like it could be a lot drier for Puget Sound than expected.

 

[Jesse]

Hopefully setting us up for a sunny hot summer.

The cool to seasonable late-March weather/death ridge summer correlation is pretty undeniable.

[Jesse]

No matter how this summer shakes out, at least we are setting ourselves up for a nice and green one. No drought issues like the past few years. Snowpack and groundwater are all doing well and that is only going to improve over the next few weeks.

 

Hard to believe at this point last year we were just a few weeks away from our first flirt with 90 in the western lowlands. I think Kelso hit 90 on 4/7 or something ridiculous. A more normal spring this year doesn't bother me a bit.

[ShawniganLake]

The cool to seasonable late-March weather/death ridge summer correlation is pretty undeniable.

Absolutely. I think it's unavoidable at this point.

[Jesse]

Today is absolutely gorgeous.

[charlie]

Yeah, it's beautiful. I can't wait to see how green everything is in a month or two!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We could use a little bit more mountain snow. The snow pack has been melting off pretty quickly here the last few weeks. That was part of the problem last year. Low snow pack and it all melted off very early. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[charlie]

Here's the lates SWE from SNOTEL sites... looks slightly above average over WA/OR, well-above average for CA. But I agree - we don't want a quick meltoff.

[ShawniganLake]

All of BC has a lower than average snowpack. So a cooler March and April would be good in that regard. The Fraser river basin is at a 1in 15 year low. "The March basin index for the entire Fraser River basin is at 83%, which is approximately a 1-in-15 year low snowpack or the 10th lowest March index in the past 65 years."

 

Table 1 - BC Snow Basin Indices – March 1, 2017

Basin

% of Normal

 

Upper Fraser West

66

 

Boundary

59

 

Upper Fraser East

66

 

Similkameen

83

 

Nechako

95

 

South Coast

90

 

Middle Fraser

84

 

Vancouver Island

72

 

Lower Fraser

95

 

Central Coast

84

 

North Thompson

87

 

Skagit

98

 

South Thompson

87

 

Peace

64

 

Fraser River – Entire

83

 

Nicola

83

 

Upper Columbia

87

 

Skeena-Nass

74

 

West Kootenay

91

 

Stikine

52

 

East Kootenay

99

 

Liard

45

 

Okanagan

86

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All of BC has a lower than average snowpack. So a cooler March and April would be good in that regard. The Fraser river basin is at a 1in 15 year low. "The March basin index for the entire Fraser River basin is at 83%, which is approximately a 1-in-15 year low snowpack or the 10th lowest March index in the past 65 years."

 

Table 1 - BC Snow Basin Indices – March 1, 2017

Basin

% of Normal

 

Upper Fraser West

66

 

Boundary

59

 

Upper Fraser East

66

 

Similkameen

83

 

Nechako

95

 

South Coast

90

 

Middle Fraser

84

 

Vancouver Island

72

 

Lower Fraser

95

 

Central Coast

84

 

North Thompson

87

 

Skagit

98

 

South Thompson

87

 

Peace

64

 

Fraser River – Entire

83

 

Nicola

83

 

Upper Columbia

87

 

Skeena-Nass

74

 

West Kootenay

91

 

Stikine

52

 

East Kootenay

99

 

Liard

45

 

Okanagan

86

Interesting

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here's the lates SWE from SNOTEL sites... looks slightly above average over WA/OR, well-above average for CA. But I agree - we don't want a quick meltoff.

Good data! Thanks!

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting

I would assume it's a result of the overall jet suppression we have seen this winter.

[charlie]

No problem Andrew! Higher elevations look to add to their snow totals this week... looks like over 10 inches of liquid-equivalent precip in Klamath Range/Sierra Nevada over the next 10 days.

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

I would assume it's a result of the overall jet suppression we have seen this winter.

What I was thinking. Can't remember having a year where so many lows passed at the Columbia or south.

[charlie]

What I was thinking. Can't remember having a year where so many lows passed at the Columbia or south.

 

Yeah, we can thank our huge ridge over the North Pacific for that.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I would assume it's a result of the overall jet suppression we have seen this winter.

 

I think overall this winter has had below normal precipitation in this region. Hopefully we can avoid another parched April-June, the last 2 springs were pretty bad for drought conditions.

[Jesse]

We could use a little bit more mountain snow. The snow pack has been melting off pretty quickly here the last few weeks. That was part of the problem last year. Low snow pack and it all melted off very early.

The snowpack is doing hugely better than it was at this time last year. Especially in mid-elevations.

 

But yeah lots of mild rain the past two weeks hasn't helped. I'm glad to see generally cooler systems in the forecast going forward.

[DareDuck]

We could use a little bit more mountain snow. The snow pack has been melting off pretty quickly here the last few weeks. That was part of the problem last year. Low snow pack and it all melted off very early.

Yup we need a boost for our higher elevation snowpack. Down 30" around 6000' and very little snow around 5000'. Same thing happened last spring. We had a great snowpack decimated by a record warm spring.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The snowpack is doing hugely better than it was at this time last year. Especially in mid-elevations.

 

But yeah lots of mild rain the past two weeks hasn't helped. I'm glad to see generally cooler systems in the forecast going forward.

Last year was one of the worst snow pack years in record though.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome day... wall-to-wall sunshine all day and totally calm here. Got the lawn raked and fertilized and the garage cleaned out and all the sleds and shovels put away and also got the garden tilled and ready to go for summer.

 

 

 

And had lunch and a cold beer on the deck. Felt like 70 on our deck in the sun with no wind. It always feels warmer than it really is in our area on sunny, north wind days because it so calm here.

 

Seems like everything is catching up quickly. The blackberry and salmon berry bushes are now leafing out and when they get going it really starts to look lush again. Its only March 19th and I was not expecting to see the under brush coming to life so fast after this winter. But we have had no meaningful freezing weather in 10 days and none in sight so that must be the key.

[Dave]

I went snowmobiling last weekend.  There's a shitload of snow left, much better than an average season,  even down to around 2000 feet.  No worries about runoff this year.  The only worry I have is if they let all the water out of Detroit Lake too quickly like they seem to do most years.  

[snow_wizard]

People are actually worried about drought and low snowpack. Wow.

[TT-SEA]

People are actually worried about drought and low snowpack. Wow.

 

 

It cannot get any wetter... and the snowpack in the mountains is so dense because there has been almost no melting all winter.

 

But it did not rain today... so probably some drought concerns starting to rise!

 

Interesting article in the Seattle Times yesterday about coping with the endless rain.   Jesse will love this one. 

 

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/rain-and-more-rain-is-in-our-dna-your-seattle-survival-stories/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain amounts mean nothing, snowpack is where it is at.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51/29 here today. Pleasant. Certainly never felt like 70.

[Jesse]

Last year was one of the worst snow pack years in record though.

And this year is running around 130% of average. So good compared even to a normal year.

[Jesse]

Yup we need a boost for our higher elevation snowpack. Down 30" around 6000' and very little snow around 5000'. Same thing happened last spring. We had a great snowpack decimated by a record warm spring.

Your area is running 124% of normal for snowpack. I really wouldn't be too worried.

 

The next 7-10 days should feature a lot of snow above 5,000'.

[TT-SEA]

51/29 here today. Pleasant. Certainly never felt like 70.

 

It was 56 here.   

 

Our deck faces to the south with the house on the north and east side.     It was warm... easily felt like 70 while we were eating lunch.  I am sure it was actually 70 right on the deck.   Its totally cheating of course but it awesome.   When its actually 70... it feels like 85 and you need the umbrellas up for shade.   When its above 80... we go to the other deck.  

[Jesse]

51/29 here today. Pleasant. Certainly never felt like 70.

Jä it was 55/31 here today. We took a hike out in the Gorge and it was a little chilly around Cape Horn with a moderate east wind, even in the sunshine.

 

Plants are still way behind in the Portland area too. Plum trees still haven't blossomed, and they usually are in full bloom by the end of the first week of the month.