March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Grass has been really slow to get going down here too. You must live in a warm bubble.

 

I don't think so.   They were mowing at my office last Friday morning and in North Bend yesterday.    We might have been helped up here by consistent snow cover during the cold periods. 

 

Here are a couple pictures right now...

 

 

[Phil]

Grass has been really slow to get going down here too. You must live in a warm bubble.

Increasing solar radiation begins warming the soil and stimulating the trees/roots right around now, even in the coldest years. The soil type, degree of moisture/rainfall, snowcover, and diversity of tree species plays into it, obviously.

 

Buds were still growing here through last week, even as temps repeatedly fell into the teens, and trees were caked in ice.

[ShawniganLake]

Grass has been really slow to get going down here too. You must live in a warm bubble.

I would estimate my mowing contracts are starting about 2-3 weeks later than average ( since 2004). Probably as much as 5 weeks later than last year.

[Jesse]

121% today, down 21% from just two weeks ago. Not worried yet, just mentioned how I don't want to go down the same path as last year and lose most of our snowpack early.

I feel ya. Luckily the outlook seems to be cool and wet western spring. We really are due.

[Jesse]

Increasing solar radiation begins warming the soil and stimulating the trees/roots right around now, even in the coldest years. The soil type, degree of moisture/rainfall, snowcover, and diversity of tree species plays into it, obviously.

 

Buds were still growing here through last week, even as temps repeatedly fell into the teens, and trees were caked in ice.

On no doubt. Sun angle/intensity seems to be the number one player when it comes to phenology. Temperatures are secondary but still play a role.

 

How did the trees that were blooming in February then got frozen out in March fare? Are they just dead now?

[TT-SEA]

At 6 a.m. it was 44 up here and 33 down in the valley... now it has shot up to 53 down in the valley.     East wind surfaced of course.

[Jesse]

A "cold" east wind gusting to 30mph at PDX. That is fairly rare for this late.

 

It has really picked up here the last few hours too. Some gusts probably 35-40.

[TT-SEA]

On no doubt. Sun angle/intensity seems to be the number one player when it comes to phenology. Temperatures are secondary but still play a role.

 

How did the trees that were blooming in February then got frozen out in March fare? Are they just dead now?

 

Here is a great site that goes into lots of detail about the cherry trees in DC and updates each day at this time of year...

 

https://cherryblossomwatch.com/tag/2017-cherry-blossoms/

[Phil]

On no doubt. Sun angle/intensity seems to be the number one player when it comes to phenology. Temperatures are secondary but still play a role.

 

How did the trees that were blooming in February then got frozen out in March fare? Are they just dead now?

The trees are alive, but most of the blooms/buds were killed and don't appear to be coming back this year. Very depressing to watch the brown, dried up flower petals blowing down sidewalks as if they were autumn leaves.

 

Luckily for us, the cherry blossom tree in our yard hadn't begun flowering yet, so at least half of the flower buds appear to be viable, though many were killed regardless. The oldest, largest trees seem to know a fake-out when they see one, so they appear to be okay as well. We run about 2 weeks behind DC in terms of flowers and the leafing out cycle, so we're in somewhat better shape than downtown.

[TT-SEA]

The cherry blossoms at UW in Seattle are supposed to be in full bloom in 6 days... no cold weather damage it appears.   Just delayed by about 2-3 weeks from last year's very early bloom.

 

http://komonews.com/news/local/uw-cherry-blossoms-expected-to-be-in-full-bloom-next-sunday

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a lot more rain in the mountains below about 6-7,000' the next week. Most of the moisture falls in the pre-frontal warm sector and then moisture is sparse once the snow levels drop to about 3,000'. Hopefully this changes once we get into April. 

[Phil]

Here is a great site that goes into lots of detail about the cherry trees in DC and updates each day at this time of year...

 

https://cherryblossomwatch.com/tag/2017-cherry-blossoms/

Bad news is that temperatures will drop into the low/mid 20s later this week, immediately following a few days with highs in the 60s/70s. This could induce further damage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the latest CFS runs, April does hold some potential to be cool and wet. 

[Kayla]

Looking at the latest CFS runs, April does hold some potential to be cool and wet. 

 

Euro weeklies show April could be another great month for the Western US snowpack as well.

 

It's the year that just keeps giving!

[TT-SEA]

This is the spot to be today... very warm on this deck.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is the spot to be today... very warm on this deck.

 

Looks nice. Raining down here today.

[TT-SEA]

Upper 50s out here now and still sunny... very nice day.

[TT-SEA]

Clouds thickening... WRF was too slow with the advance of the precip and clouds this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain really picking up here in Salem.

[FroYoBro]

Clouds thickening... WRF was too slow with the advance of the precip and clouds this morning. 

What about the lord Euro?

[TT-SEA]

What about the lord Euro?

 

Yeah... it was right on track but it does not come out until later and I missed it.  

[dairyd]

Grass has been really slow to get going down here too. You must live in a warm bubble.

 

That is really variety dependent.  Now that we are at the equinox, photoperiod is plenty long enough for significant growth spurts for most cool-season grasses such as ryegrass, fescues, orchards, and bluegrasses.  If you have late-season or drought tolerant hybrids those would probably be slower to grow in this weather, there may also be winter kill as not all varieties/hybrids have good winter hardiness.  Some C4 seed has made its way on the shelves and that definitely won't grow or green up in this weather.  The grass here is growing about 1/2"-3/4"/day this week, but I plant hybrids to be aggressive in the cool spring. 

[Jesse]

Pleasant day in Downtown Vancouver. Started the day off with filtered sunshine and ended it with some nice dark clouds. There might be a chance at a scattered thunderstorm or two tomorrow. Currently 8º / 47º and overcast.

 

Do you miss the PNW climate?

[Jesse]

That is really variety dependent.  Now that we are at the equinox, photoperiod is plenty long enough for significant growth spurts for most cool-season grasses such as ryegrass, fescues, orchards, and bluegrasses.  If you have late-season or drought tolerant hybrids those would probably be slower to grow in this weather, there may also be winter kill as not all varieties/hybrids have good winter hardiness.  Some C4 seed has made its way on the shelves and that definitely won't grow or green up in this weather.  The grass here is growing about 1/2"-3/4"/day this week, but I plant hybrids to be aggressive in the cool spring. 

 

Good information. Thank you!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

28F here this morning with heavy frost. Just a hint of green is starting to show on my otherwise brown lawn

 

It's greening up pretty quickly here, there hasn't been a freeze here since Mar 6th.

[DareDuck]

Will be spending the next couple days in Portland. Thinking I'll go over Santiam through Salem because I like that drive better than by Hood. Hoping for a tstorm tomorrow afternoon.

[Jesse]

Will be spending the next couple days in Portland. Thinking I'll go over Santiam through Salem because I like that drive better than by Hood. Hoping for a tstorm tomorrow afternoon.

 

Are you going to cut north down the North Santiam toward Detroit, or continue West over Tombstone Pass and down the South Santiam? I think the latter is more scenic, albeit slower and narrower.

[WeatherArchive]

Do you miss the PNW climate?

Vancouver BC IS the PNW.  If anything it represents it the best actually with Seattle following close behind for good or bad depending on your personality.   Vancouver if you like cold like I do is more exciting then most of us down here.

[Jesse]

Vancouver BC IS the PNW.  If anything it represents it the best actually with Seattle following close behind for good or bad depending on your personality.   Vancouver if you like cold like I do is more exciting then most of us down here.

 

Fred moved to Philadelphia and is only back in the PNW on business. Hence the question.

[ShawniganLake]

It's greening up pretty quickly here, there hasn't been a freeze here since Mar 6th.

Yea. I will be starting my Victoria mowing contracts this week.

[DareDuck]

Are you going to cut north down the North Santiam toward Detroit, or continue West over Tombstone Pass and down the South Santiam? I think the latter is more scenic, albeit slower and narrower.

Probably north through Detroit tomorrow. Maybe on the way back I'll go over Tombstone since I won't have a time constraint.

[snow_wizard]

I kind of do. The low sun angles, the clean air, the right mix of dampness and walking out into some warm sunshine on a spring day. I am hoping that I get my snowbug taken care of while I live in Philly, so that when I do come back, I dont have a mental breakdown over 3 inches of snow for a season total.

I have a feeling our average will be much higher than that over the next 4 or 5 years. This solar min is going to be a doozy.

 

I would think you should get plenty of warm days there in the spring. This area isn't noted for having warm / sunny springs anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SWS out for moderate to strong tstorms tomorrow in the valley.

[Jesse]

SWS out for moderate to strong tstorms tomorrow in the valley.

 

Decent band of heavy rain about to cross PDX right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent band of heavy rain about to cross PDX right now.

I was just outside. It is raining. Hard.

[TT-SEA]

I was just outside. It is raining. Hard.

Not a drop here yet... my fertilizer is waiting.

[Front Ranger]

Could be most active t-storm day in quite awhile for you all today. Good luck!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining as I get up and around this morning. Hopefully we get a nice day when I am back on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

Raining as I get up and around this morning. Hopefully we get a nice day when I am back on Sunday.

 

Looking doubtful now for Sunday.   ECMWF has been aggressively bringing in the system that day.  

[TT-SEA]

A memory popped up on facebook from this day in 2014 so I started scrolling from there forward to see how spring progressed... we seem to be about on track with that year.   Maybe a little slower.   I kept scrolling and was reminded how crazy early everything was in 2015 and 2016.