September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Not a cloud to be found in the sky. Amazing weather.

[Niko]

As far as the tropics go, they remain active. As a matter of fact, models are expecting 2 name storms to continue in the Atlantic (Lee and Maria) which could be affecting the SE coastline.

[Minny_Weather]

Using my fireplace for the first time ever this evening. It's cold out! Sad it's only lasting for a couple days. Looks like our next chance for cool weather after tomorrow is around next weekend.

[OKwx2k4]

Using my fireplace for the first time ever this evening. It's cold out! Sad it's only lasting for a couple days. Looks like our next chance for cool weather after tomorrow is around next weekend.

Can't wait for fireplace and woodsmoke season here.

 

Getting cool enough nights to take their toll on leaves a little bit but it's been warm a couple of weeks during the day and going on 4-5 weeks of dry. Huge flip from my cool rainy summer. Hope the drought doesn't ruin my foliage season.

[jaster220]

Can't wait for fireplace and woodsmoke season here.

Getting cool enough nights to take their toll on leaves a little bit but it's been warm a couple of weeks during the day and going on 4-5 weeks of dry. Huge flip from my cool rainy summer. Hope the drought doesn't ruin my foliage season.

It's been noted these same warm conditions happened in several years leading into a La Nina most recently 07 & '10, so it's not all bad. Just need moisture badly.

[Niko]

It's been noted these same warm conditions happened in several years leading into a La Nina most recently 07 & '10, so it's not all bad. Just need moisture badly.

Yes...moisture, a ton of moisture from mother nature.  That front that was expected for Monday...well, not happening. It dried out.

[Niko]

Not a leaf moving out there currently. Omph with clear skier and a little humid temps in the 60s and falling into the 50s by morning with dense fog.

[Tom]

As far as the tropics go, they remain active. As a matter of fact, models are expecting 2 name storms to continue in the Atlantic (Lee and Maria) which could be affecting the SE coastline.

Maria looks like another direct hit for the second time in just as many weeks for the Lesser Antilles and then the U.S. Virgin Islands.  Not good.  Richard Branson's private island is in the path once again.

[Tom]

GFS is flashing almost a late Autumn/early Winter set up with a strong cold front setting up shop right over the Plains states.  Warm humid air pumping north bound along a strong Autumn cold front should produce copious amounts of rain for a lot of our members out west.  I could see training thunderstorms out of this.

 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

Yesterday was kind of a weird day. Had some early-morning storms that didn't drop much rain and then in the morning it was in the mid 70s, but then the cold front moving through and it dropped to the low 60s by noon and for the rest of the day. Stayed cloudy and cool all day long and then around 8 o'clock storms formed behind the cold front and moved through. Ended up with a little over an inch of rain yesterday with the majority falling last night. Also the lighting was pretty crazy last night causing a couple of house fires here in Omaha. The science behind lightning has always fascinated me. Yesterday it was cool and cloudy all day and then the storms formed and had crazy lightning, but you can have days with 5000 Cape and severe weather and the lightning isn't that bad!

[Minny_Weather]

The GFS and Euro have finally agreed on something more than 7 days out! A strong cold front will move in next week around the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Sadly, they cannot agree on the intensity. If you go with GFS, this could bring the coldest temps of the season so far. If you look at Euro, it is weak sauce which will bring temperatures ALL THE WAY back down to normal. Right now, I'm thinking we see a happy medium between the two.

[Niko]

Maria looks like another direct hit for the second time in just as many weeks for the Lesser Antilles and then the U.S. Virgin Islands.  Not good.  Richard Branson's private island is in the path once again.

Those places down there are taking a hard hit this year, unfortunately.

[Niko]

Another fascinating day out there. Deep blue skies and building warmth. Temps will soar once again into the 80s.

[Tom]

The GFS and Euro have finally agreed on something more than 7 days out! A strong cold front will move in next week around the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Sadly, they cannot agree on the intensity. If you go with GFS, this could bring the coldest temps of the season so far. If you look at Euro, it is weak sauce which will bring temperatures ALL THE WAY back down to normal. Right now, I'm thinking we see a happy medium between the two.

Yup, I think the GFS wins given the state of the teleconnections and the pattern we have seen since August.  Canadian HP's have been underplayed so get ready to see some chilly weather finally.  I know you have been waiting a long time for it.  GEFS do show this colder air knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies.

[Niko]

I am glad we are getting this warmth now because I'd rather have it warm now, than, in November and December.

[Tom]

Yellowstone Park...Winter has arrived...

 

[Niko]

Yellowstone Park...Winter has arrived...

 

Ahhh...the beauty of snow.

[Tom]

NE Peeps, 12z GFS back with a stronger HP and is showing daytime highs in NE both Sat/Sun in the 40's/50's!  Ouch~!  A couple days earlier some will be in the 90's basking in heat and humidity.  I can already see people getting sick in this type of yo-yo pattern.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.31" of rain overnight, our first rain in weeks.

[gabel23]

NE Peeps, 12z GFS back with a stronger HP and is showing daytime highs in NE both Sat/Sun in the 40's/50's! Ouch~! A couple days earlier some will be in the 90's basking in heat and humidity. I can already see people getting sick in this type of yo-yo pattern.

 

 

I had a big golf game planned in Columbus next Saturday, Man that would be a cold day of golf! I could put up with it as long as it's not raining

[Minny_Weather]

I had a big golf game planned in Columbus next Saturday, Man that would be a cold day of golf! I could put up with it as long as it's not raining

Man do I have news for you.

[jaster220]

NE Peeps, 12z GFS back with a stronger HP and is showing daytime highs in NE both Sat/Sun in the 40's/50's!  Ouch~!  A couple days earlier some will be in the 90's basking in heat and humidity.  I can already see people getting sick in this type of yo-yo pattern.

 

 

That's why peeps live in the plains, lol

[Niko]

Currently 85F IMBY. Man, its a warm late Summer day!

[Niko]

 

[gabel23]

Man do I have news for you.

What's the news??

[Minny_Weather]

What's the news??

GFS, which is the model I am siding with at this point, has rain the entire day Saturday. Don't cancel anything yet, still 6 days away.

 

The reason I am believing GFS is because Euro has the very strong cold front stalling out and staying around the I-80 corridor the entire week. That would mean epic storm action, but seems unrealistic for this time of year and there is no obvious reason for it to stall.

[Niko]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL122017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204706_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Tom]

@ Jaster, you getting a soaking?

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, you getting a soaking?

Roger that Major Tom! Legit T-storm here after idk how long??

[jaster220]

And some very close strikes/thunderclaps like we've been missing all year. First time all of 2017 that I had to scurry around closing windows. Usually happens multiple times a season. ☺

[jaster220]

Last check an hour ago and my NWS zone called for 30% chance of rain. Most of this season, an 80% day failed. Sometimes it looks like Ma Nature just loves to troll Met's!

[Tom]

Roger that Major Tom! Legit T-storm here after idk how long??

I'm jelly man! We have had nothing but sun and clouds today. Cold front pushed through about an hour ago and the temps are sliding. Was a bit more humid today. Looking forward to the cooler air through Tuesday.

[james1976]

Only reached 67 today imby. What a difference! Also picked up 0.80" of rain overnight.

[westMJim]

Here at my house I had a high today of 90° at the airport it looks like the official high will be 88° there is a chance that it got higher between hours but if that 88° is in fact the high for the day this will be the warmest (official) warmest September 17^th at GRR since a reading of 91° in 1955.

Also while there are showers and thundershowers to the east and southeast no rain here today!

[Niko]

Looks like maybe and I mean maybe, I will get a t'stm late tanite!!!!!!

 

Okay, back to playing pool.

[jaster220]

I'm jelly man! We have had nothing but sun and clouds today. Cold front pushed through about an hour ago and the temps are sliding. Was a bit more humid today. Looking forward to the cooler air through Tuesday.

LOL @ how a 30% risk has turned into a flood advisory! It stormed a good 90 mins and we may have scored 1.5 to 2" of windy rain. Temp was 86 now down to 68. At the airport winds went NW and gusted to 26 for a bit.

 

I would love to think we turned some imaginary corner with this, but I'm just going to be glad for the surprise moisture and run with it.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=flood%20advisory

[Niko]

TWC crew already in parts of the EC ready to start reporting for Jose.

[Tom]

LOL @ how a 30% risk has turned into a flood advisory! It stormed a good 90 mins and we may have scored 1.5 to 2" of windy rain. Temp was 86 now down to 68. At the airport winds went NW and gusted to 26 for a bit.

 

I would love to think we turned some imaginary corner with this, but I'm just going to be glad for the surprise moisture and run with it.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=flood%20advisory

Amen amigo!

 

Anywho, I decided to take a glance at the 18z GEFS and they are showing what I thought would happen to close out the month.  Noticably, a cooler trend is being advertised...first out in the Plains, then swinging east.  Looks like the East Asian Theory & BSR might be working out.  12z EPS also trending towards an amplified N.A. pattern by Day 10.  

 

Furthermore, the early season cold brewing up in Eurasia off a building snow pack may seemingly intensify a big trough out in East Asian Week 2.  Look how the cold air spills off the mainland into Japan.  

 

 

Day 6-10...warmth near Japan through the next 10 days....BUT...

 

 

 

Day 10-14...this may be an important clue for the open of October for our pattern...look at the cooling taking place in the central Plains....

 

 

 

 

12z EPS show the flip starting....

 

[OKwx2k4]

It looks to me like several EPS members must have a bowling ball loaded into the SW. I like it!

[OKwx2k4]

Another look at what Tom posted.

 

 

 

Just nice stuff. Can't complain a bit.