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October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1
stuffradio

Posted 29 September 2017 - 09:00 AM

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Happy October! Will we see our first frost this month? It's possible!


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#2
stuffradio

Posted 29 September 2017 - 02:26 PM

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Prolly should call this the Phil Jesse and Tim thread. That's what it's gonna end up being until something noteworthy weather related happens....

That would break the template we've had for monthly weather threads, so I don't think I will do that.



#3
Front Ranger

Posted 29 September 2017 - 08:19 PM

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FWIW. Years with similar, developing -ENSO.

 

Attached File  cd174.29.59.10.271.22.18.6.prcp.png   437.43KB   0 downloads


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4
Geos

Posted 30 September 2017 - 10:41 AM

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Happy October! Will we see our first frost this month? It's possible!

 

Would be nice. Had a light frost here last October on the 11th and 12th.

 

*Pinned*


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#5
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2017 - 10:58 AM

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12Z ECMWF just skims us with the trough next week... not even any precip shown.

 

Then it shows another ridge nosing in at day 10... very nice pattern.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png



#6
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:38 AM

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The greening up continues... first picture in the late summer and second picture taken just now:

 

20121153_1392801804121357_57705001012377

 

20170930_123623.jpg


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#7
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:42 AM

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12Z ECMWF just skims us with the trough next week... not even any precip shown.

Then it shows another ridge nosing in at day 10... very nice pattern.


Looks like a cool and dry run overall.

#timandjesseharmony

#8
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:55 AM

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Looks like a cool and dry run overall.

#timandjesseharmony

 

Yeah... its completely dry after the lingering showers tomorrow.  

 

9 consecutive dry days in October would be a wonderful thing in my book... particularly after being drenched here.  And should make for some great fall scenery.  



#9
Farmboy

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:56 AM

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It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month.

#10
Geos

Posted 30 September 2017 - 02:15 PM

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It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month.

 

What was that like?


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#11
wx_statman

Posted 30 September 2017 - 02:31 PM

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What was that like?

 

Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/

 

https://gis.ncdc.noa...summaries/daily

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...DD60FA3756D.pdf



#12
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2017 - 04:47 PM

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Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor.   WTF???

 

We need rain so desperately here!    It stopped around noon.   Getting the sprinklers out again.    The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.  

 

ATX_0_1.png



#13
snow_wizard

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:22 PM

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Prolly should call this the Phil Jesse and Tim thread. That's what it's gonna end up being until something noteworthy weather related happens....

 

This trough is pretty noteworthy.  Going to get chilly in the coming days.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#14
snow_wizard

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:24 PM

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It would be cool to see another October 2002-type air mass later in the month.

 

I was never impressed with 2002.  The October 2003 and 2006 cold snaps were much more real IMO.  2002 was more of a dry air low level cold situation.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#15
Farmboy

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:25 PM

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The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?

#16
snow_wizard

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:26 PM

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FWIW. Years with similar, developing -ENSO.

 

attachicon.gifcd174.29.59.10.271.22.18.6.prcp.png

 

Technically this will be two La Nina winters in a row.  Having a Nino between them was really weird.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#17
wx_statman

Posted 30 September 2017 - 05:37 PM

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I was never impressed with 2002.  The October 2003 and 2006 cold snaps were much more real IMO.  2002 was more of a dry air low level cold situation.

That's true, but it was still a remarkable setup. A massive ridge of high pressure (height sd's 4+) over the Canadian arctic drove a chunk of the Hudson Bay low all the way into Montana. We didn't really have a GOA ridge or any northerly flow, but we sure maximized the radiational cooling after the mass advection of continental air from the E/NE.

#18
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2017 - 10:51 PM

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The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?


Last year. Before that I think you might have to go all the way back to 2015.
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#19
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2017 - 10:53 PM

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Helped my dad move up to Port Townsend today. That's a nice area.

I heard we missed a pretty heavy downpour with some thunder and lightning here at home.

#20
snow_wizard

Posted 30 September 2017 - 10:58 PM

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The thunderstorms associated w/ this front and the one a couple weeks ago really remind me of spring. I don't recall weather like this in the fall. Anyone know the last time we had fall thunderstorms?

 

It does happen reasonably often.  More often in seasons that give way to colder winters.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#21
wx_statman

Posted 30 September 2017 - 11:52 PM

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Helped my dad move up to Port Townsend today. That's a nice area.

I heard we missed a pretty heavy downpour with some thunder and lightning here at home.

 

That's a neat area. I had dinner at Manresa Castle once. Super expensive...I wasn't the one paying.  :lol:



#22
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:07 AM

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The ECMWF is very sharp with next weekend's trough.  Looks much more the like the GEM.  I love seeing a repeating pattern like this in October.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#23
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:49 AM

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Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/

 

https://gis.ncdc.noa...summaries/daily

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...DD60FA3756D.pdf

You can also get imagery here. http://www.meteociel...region=&mode=0 Here is Octoboer 10th 2002.  Just leave it set to Toutes les Cartes if you want all the imagery.   Scroll pass the Europe ones for the NA ones at the bottom.   :)

 

You won't believe the amount of imagery they have.  It's quite addicting actually.


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#24
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:51 AM

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It does happen reasonably often.  More often in seasons that give way to colder winters.

Makes sense actually as in that scenario it's easier to fire up convection due to sharper air mass differences where in stable falls/winters there is less difference.


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#25
Geos

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:23 AM

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Look it up. You have a degree in Geosciences and GIS, don't you? You know how to navigate data sources. 

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/

 

https://gis.ncdc.noa...summaries/daily

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...DD60FA3756D.pdf

 

Thanks for the links. I was on my phone, so it wasn't as easy - otherwise I wouldn't have asked.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#26
Geos

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:24 AM

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Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor.   WTF???

 

We need rain so desperately here!    It stopped around noon.   Getting the sprinklers out again.    The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.  

 

ATX_0_1.png

 

Couldn't help but notice the convergence like zone over your area now.

...or uplift type effect.

 

ATX.N0Q.20171001.1022.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#27
Geos

Posted 01 October 2017 - 02:30 AM

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You can also get imagery here. http://www.meteociel...region=&mode=0 Here is Octoboer 10th 2002.  Just leave it set to Toutes les Cartes if you want all the imagery.   Scroll pass the Europe ones for the NA ones at the bottom.    :)

 

You won't believe the amount of imagery they have.  It's quite addicting actually.

 

Wow, very cool.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#28
crf450ish

Posted 01 October 2017 - 04:13 AM

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Remember this blast?

http://www.meteociel...region=&mode=0 

#29
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:04 AM

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1.25 inches would be a major winter storm here.

 

 

Rain band is split right over I-90 corridor.   WTF???

 

We need rain so desperately here!    It stopped around noon.   Getting the sprinklers out again.    The 1.25 inches since last night is not enough.  

 

 



#30
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:15 AM

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Thanks for the links. I was on my phone, so it wasn't as easy - otherwise I wouldn't have asked.

 

No problem! I would have waited till I wasn't on my phone, and looked it up myself. I guess that's my curiosity. 



#31
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:20 AM

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That's a neat area. I had dinner at Manresa Castle once. Super expensive...I wasn't the one paying. :lol:


All the Victorian architecture up there is pretty cool. Some of the best examples in Washington since the town experienced a boom in the 1880s, then the economy declined rapidly in the early 1890s. Sharply enough where the buildings weren't destroyed and replaced by more modern structures like in many places.

I'm trying to get a feel for the climate up there. I know they are pretty strongly influenced by the Olympic rain shadow (less than 20" a year), but I imagine they must also be exposed to some fairly cold Fraser outflow in the winter sometimes.

#32
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:27 AM

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Here's a different kind of stat. 

 

PDX finished September with 9 days at/above 86 degrees, one of only 9 Septembers to do so:

 

10 days @ 86+: 1974, 1987, 1989, 2011

9 days @ 86+: 1944, 1975, 1991, 1993, 2017

 

Of those 9 Septembers, 2017 had the coolest average maximum at 77.5F. So this is another way of quantifying the variability we saw last month, with plenty of cold troughing in the second half of the month to offset a near-record amount of hot days. 



#33
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 08:40 AM

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All the Victorian architecture up there is pretty cool. Some of the best examples in Washington since the town experienced a boom in the 1880s, then the economy declined rapidly in the early 1890s. Sharply enough where the buildings weren't destroyed and replaced by more modern structures like in many places.

I'm trying to get a feel for the climate up there. I know they are pretty strongly influenced by the Olympic rain shadow (less than 20" a year), but I imagine they must also be exposed to some fairly cold Fraser outflow in the winter sometimes.

 

I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. 

 

Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010.


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#34
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:17 AM

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I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. 

 

Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010.

 

Sounds pretty similar to the climate here, but I think the rain shadow has even more of an influence down there.



#35
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:25 AM

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I remember reading about that when I was up there. Up until the early 1890's they were competing with Seattle for top-dog status in the Puget Sound. I think the Panic of 1893 and the depression that followed killed them off. 

 

Climate wise, I think they're in a transitional zone. Partly in the Fraser outflow zone, part lower Puget Sound, and part Juan de Fuca. That area can get slammed during NW'erly CAA events with the overwater trajectory picking up moisture from the Strait. Sequim got something like 14" in November 2010.

 

The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage.


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#36
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:26 AM

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Just like last winter the GFS is struggling with a possible cutoff low to our SW or WSW interfering with a trough trying to dig down from the north.  The 6z had no cutoff low so the trough solidly dug in while the 12z has the cutoff low there again causing the trough to deflect.  The 0z GEM and 0z ECMWF agreed with the 6z GFS so for now going with a sharp trough scenario seems reasonable.  


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#37
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:30 AM

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The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage.

 

I totally agree.  The available data for snowfall in that area looks pretty wimpy though.  Probably a number of situations where they miss out.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#38
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Wow the 12z sure is an extremely mild run.

#39
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:50 AM

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I totally agree.  The available data for snowfall in that area looks pretty wimpy though.  Probably a number of situations where they miss out.

 

Yeah, anecdotally I can't remember too many events where that area was a sweet spot. It seems like they always miss out a bit in one setup or another, and they're obviously pretty moderated by water being on the edge of a little peninsula.


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#40
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:00 AM

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Sounds pretty similar to the climate here, but I think the rain shadow has even more of an influence down there.

 

Definitely. Sequim only averages 16" of precip per year. Even out to Coupeville the average is only 20". 



#41
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:03 AM

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Yeah, anecdotally I can't remember too many events where that area was a sweet spot. It seems like they always miss out a bit in one setup or another, and they're obviously pretty moderated by water being on the edge of a little peninsula.

 

That makes sense that they would more often miss out rather than be in the best of all worlds situation. Being surrounded by water is never a good thing in our climate zone.



#42
Jesse

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:07 AM

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That makes sense that they would more often miss out rather than be in the best of all worlds situation. Being surrounded by water is never a good thing in our climate zone.


I was thinking the same thing. They are way out at the end of a narrow peninsula, with open water on three sides.

I'm curious how often they even see a hard freeze.

#43
wx_statman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:16 AM

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I was thinking the same thing. They are way out at the end of a narrow peninsula, with open water on three sides.

 

They do have some gems, although they seem to be few and far between. I like the 17.5" on January 5, 1982. Similar NW'erly blast to November 2010, where PDX experienced CAA from the N/NW without any gorge influence. 



#44
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:26 AM

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That makes sense that they would more often miss out rather than be in the best of all worlds situation. Being surrounded by water is never a good thing in our climate zone.

 

How did they do in Dec 1996/Nov 2006/Feb 2011? Those were pretty big events on the other side of the Strait.



#45
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:29 AM

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They do have some gems, although they seem to be few and far between. I like the 17.5" on January 5, 1982. Similar NW'erly blast to November 2010, where PDX experienced CAA from the N/NW without any gorge influence. 

 

I think that one is pretty dubious, looks to me like it got entered on WRCC wrong.

 

https://www1.ncdc.no...E921F214D09.pdf

 

That was a significant event for NW WA, but I'm not aware of any daily totals that high.



#46
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:32 AM

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August and September were both record warm months at Shawnigan Lake. Looking like the streak ends with October, thankfully.
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#47
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:41 AM

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12z euro is the furthest east with next weekends trough, of the 3 main models.

#48
crf450ish

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:42 AM

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Just like last winter the GFS is struggling with a possible cutoff low to our SW or WSW interfering with a trough trying to dig down from the north. The 6z had no cutoff low so the trough solidly dug in while the 12z has the cutoff low there again causing the trough to deflect. The 0z GEM and 0z ECMWF agreed with the 6z GFS so for now going with a sharp trough scenario seems reasonable.


No offense but I consider the GFS to be a total joke after what I witnessed last winter and the majority of this year so far. It doesn't know if it's coming or going 99.9% of the time. Even veteran mets around the country agree that the Euro is far more accurate than the GFS. Considering how accurate the Euro was with this recent string of Atlantic hurricanes.... I'd wager that it's the one to place bets on.

#49
Geos

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:42 AM

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The northern Olympic Peninsula as a whole does very well with snowfall during strong Fraser River outflow thanks to overwater trajectory and orographic lifting against the mountains. Port Townsend is kind of on the edge of that, though, and seems like they tend to rely a little more on convergence zone action whereas Port Angeles and Sequim rely more on the upslope flow with an arctic frontal passage.

 

They get a whole variety of weather there. You're right though. Port Townsend was on the very edge of the Fraser River outflow snow event last winter. Sequim and Port Angeles got nailed though.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

Total moisture 2017: 28.86", 10/16

Season low so far: 33°, 10/14

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 0.0"


 


#50
BLI snowman

Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:44 AM

BLI snowman

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  • 5500 posts
  • LocationRidgefield, WA

They get a whole variety of weather there. You're right though. Port Townsend was on the very edge of the Fraser River outflow snow event last winter. Sequim and Port Angeles got nailed though.

 

Yeah, it seems like the COOP stations around town measured just a few inches or less last February. Pretty wimpy.