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January Weather In the PNW

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#101
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:52 AM

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Have had snow on the ground for both last New Year’s Day, and today’s! 😀

Attached Files


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#102
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:55 AM

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Have had snow on the ground for both last New Year’s Day, and today’s!

 

Nice first pic. Didn't realize you could see Oregon from your house. ;)



#103
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:57 AM

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That was a good winter farther north. November blast and February blast. We had a huge snow storm in January too. (17”). I would assume expectations for the Oregon coast are pretty low in winter. You should consider moving farther north. 🤔


I want to move to Bend actually. Dry hot summers and usually at least a bit of snow in the winter with much colder temps. Sadly I am suffering from fairly significant epilepsy so I'm stuck where I'm at for now.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#104
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:57 AM

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What do you think caused the prolonged global warming from 1700-1950? Certainly that wasn’t us.

Just FWIW, from 2000-present, the CO^2 increase has added 0.479W/m^2 of radiative forcing as viewed from the TOA boundary. Meanwhile, swings between phases of the northern annular mode in boreal winter alter the radiative forcing to the surface by over 10W/m^2 based on measurements from MERRA/AIRS/CERES, or in other words, equal to almost a tripling of CO^2 concentrations.

 

I just want to see the WPAC's teeth get kicked in. Seems its unforeseen prowess fits well with the background warming we have seen and are continuing to see.


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#105
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:57 AM

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You’d really think we were in a strong El Niño looking at the 12z Euro.

At least the cold air stays fairly close to the west, anything is possible if we can keep it close.
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#106
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Nice first pic. Didn't realize you could see Oregon from your house. ;)

Think BIG Jesse...BIG! Deep snow, long snow, cold snow!!

#107
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Must have missed them living on the coast then. Strange that an Arctic blast with offshore flow wouldn't be felt out there.

I remember Scott Sistek posting a blog about being ready to give up on La Niña in late Jan, 2011 so it must not have been that cold.

 

This was early January 2011... looked pretty good here.  

 

165718_120108248057392_4267754_n.jpg?oh=

 

Followed by this in late February 2011...

 

175276_132006033534280_1903364_o.jpg?oh=

 

 

And this was earlier that season in November: 

 

52671_109093152492235_1167966_o.jpg?oh=a


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#108
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:01 PM

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Taking an average of SEA, BLI, and OLM December ended up -1.0.  The month consisted of really weird blend of fake cold, real cold, and low level seepage, but it was pretty wintry.  Pretty hard to complain about the month with the white Christmas and all.  The month ended up being exactly what I predicted.  Now if January can deliver.  Still a lot of hope IMO.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#109
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:03 PM

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This was early January 2011... looked pretty good here.

165718_120108248057392_4267754_n.jpg?oh=

Followed by this in late February 2011...

175276_132006033534280_1903364_o.jpg?oh=


And this was earlier that season in November:

52671_109093152492235_1167966_o.jpg?oh=a

You’re getting old...look how young your kids looked!

#110
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:03 PM

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I just want to see the WPAC's teeth get kicked in. Seems its unforeseen prowess fits well with the background warming we have seen and are continuing to see.

 

There is still nothing that has happened that is not within the scope of natural cycle.  We did have the 50 foot plus sea level rise that happened before people were any kind of a factor.  I still say we are going to see a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple of years with the solar min and post super Nino crash.

 

It's pretty hard to understand where you are coming from after the awesome winter you guys had last time around.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#111
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:03 PM

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Taking an average of SEA, BLI, and OLM December ended up -1.0.  The month consisted of really weird blend of fake cold, real cold, and low level seepage, but it was pretty wintry.  Pretty hard to complain about the month with the white Christmas and all.  The month ended up being exactly what I predicted.  Now if January can deliver.  Still a lot of hope IMO.

 

PDX ended up -0.6, but at least had a monthly average in the 30s at 39.8F.

 

They would have ended up a good deal cooler if it weren't for the torch the last four days of the month. But I agree with you, it was a wintery feeling month on the whole. Having snow on the ground and highs 35 or lower for four days around Christmas was nice.



#112
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:04 PM

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Have had snow on the ground for both last New Year’s Day, and today’s!

 

 

This was New Years Day last year.   We have absolutely no snow this year... not even a patch.  :)

 

15844914_1195132990554907_75985106655155


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#113
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:04 PM

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There is still nothing that has happened that is not within the scope of natural cycle.  We did have the 50 foot plus sea level rise that happened before people were any kind of a factor.  I still say we are going to see a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple of years with the solar min and post super Nino crash.

 

It seems like people have been predicting a sharp crash in global temps the next couple of years since this forum started. Phil is the pied piper. :lol:



#114
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:06 PM

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I want to move to Bend actually. Dry hot summers and usually at least a bit of snow in the winter with much colder temps. Sadly I am suffering from fairly significant epilepsy so I'm stuck where I'm at for now.

 

Where on the coast did you live again?

 

And sorry to hear that.



#115
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:10 PM

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This was New Years Day last year.   We have absolutely no snow this year... not even a patch.  :)
 
15844914_1195132990554907_75985106655155

The patch was the remains of my Christmas morning driveway shoveling.

Attached Files



#116
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:14 PM

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It seems like people have been predicting a sharp crash in global temps the next couple of years since this forum started. Phil is the pied piper. :lol:

 

It pretty much has to happen.  We have yet to see the post Nino crash this time around that has happened with past super Ninos.  I think the next two years could be really impressive.  We shall see I guess.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#117
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:20 PM

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My sister and family are skiing at Mt. Hood Meadows today and they said they are sweating and skiing in sweatshirts.   45 degrees with blinding sun reflecting off the snow.  :)



#118
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:21 PM

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The 12z GEM was actually quite good and only difference between it and the ECMWF is the ECMWF splits the block which causes the eastern lobe of the block to shove cold off to our east again.  A more consolidated block (which is highly possible) could give us a GEM type result.  It's pretty easy to see on this frame how the block being split ruins the pattern.

 

At any rate until this MJO plays out I'm going to remain optimistic.  No way we will get the same results from every MJO position.  5 is the magic region for us and the ECMWF shows us in 4 just after the 10th, with every sign the wave will progress to 5.  The models will change at some point if the Maritime Continent wave verifies.

 

 

Attached Files

  • Attached File  cold.png   210.66KB   0 downloads
  • Attached File  cold.png   192.55KB   0 downloads

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#119
dolt

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:22 PM

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With nearly 48 inches of rain in 2017, Seattle has experienced the wettest four-year stretch in recorded history.

Seattle typically gets about 37.5 inches of rain each year, but for four years in a row the city has recorded more than 44 inches, according to National Weather Service data. That is the first time in more than 120 years of weather records.

 

https://www.seattlet...corded-history/

 

Much drier down here.

 

2014: 37"

2015: 31"

2016: 41"

2017: 32"

 

Eugene is the new Redding.



#120
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:23 PM

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I just want to see the WPAC's teeth get kicked in. Seems its unforeseen prowess fits well with the background warming we have seen and are continuing to see.


You’re definitely correct about that. The connection between the west-Pacific and warm climate regimes is something all climate scientists (alarmists and deniers alike) agree on. They just disagree on which is the chicken and which is the egg.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#121
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:24 PM

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If Bryant is on here today I would be interested to get his take.  He has some talent with this stuff and I have missed his input.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#122
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:26 PM

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There is still nothing that has happened that is not within the scope of natural cycle. We did have the 50 foot plus sea level rise that happened before people were any kind of a factor. I still say we are going to see a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple of years with the solar min and post super Nino crash.

It's pretty hard to understand where you are coming from after the awesome winter you guys had last time around.


Well, sea levels have risen almost 400 feet since the last glacial maximum. They’ve actually fallen a few meters since the Holocene thermal maximum around 7-5kyrs ago. The 12-15” rise since 1700 is a small wiggle by comparison.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#123
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:27 PM

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You’re definitely correct about that. The connection between the west-Pacific and warm climate regimes is something all climate scientists (alarmists and deniers alike) agree on. They just disagree on which is the chicken and which is the egg.

 

It would be pretty shocking to not see a major global cooling set in this year.  Just too many things argue for it.  That having been said you know how Mother Nature can be.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#124
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:29 PM

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Well, sea levels have risen almost 400 feet since the last glacial maximum. They’ve actually fallen a few meters since the Holocene thermal maximum around 7-5kyrs ago.

 

Wow!  I thought my number might be too low, but that is insane.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#125
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:30 PM

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You’re definitely correct about that. The connection between the west-Pacific and warm climate regimes is something all climate scientists (alarmists and deniers alike) agree on. They just disagree on which is the chicken and which is the egg.


I recall that convection shifting to the IO was even part of your 1993-esque early summer forecast for us last year. Didn’t really pan out.

I’ve noticed you have done great with the timing of warm spells and ridging out here, but any troughing or significant cool spell for us seems to be much more fickle/difficult to predict, and has a much higher bust potential.

#126
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:33 PM

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Just hit 32, another chilly day.

#127
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:33 PM

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It would be pretty shocking to not see a major global cooling set in this year. Just too many things argue for it. That having been said you know how Mother Nature can be.


You’ve been saying this for years dude.

#128
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:34 PM

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The 12z GEM was actually quite good and only difference between it and the ECMWF is the ECMWF splits the block which causes the eastern lobe of the block to shove cold off to our east again. A more consolidated block (which is highly possible) could give us a GEM type result. It's pretty easy to see on this frame how the block being split ruins the pattern.

At any rate until this MJO plays out I'm going to remain optimistic. No way we will get the same results from every MJO position. 5 is the magic region for us and the ECMWF shows us in 4 just after the 10th, with every sign the wave will progress to 5. The models will change at some point if the Maritime Continent wave verifies.


Phase 5?


#129
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:34 PM

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It would be pretty shocking to not see a major global cooling set in this year. Just too many things argue for it. That having been said you know how Mother Nature can be.


Major cooling takes some time..the oceans have a very high thermal capacity. There needs to be a circulation change that starts removing more OHC through an increase in tropical convection and wind speed..aka a negative global annular mode. That hasn’t happened yet.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#130
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:36 PM

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The 12z GEM was actually quite good and only difference between it and the ECMWF is the ECMWF splits the block which causes the eastern lobe of the block to shove cold off to our east again. A more consolidated block (which is highly possible) could give us a GEM type result. It's pretty easy to see on this frame how the block being split ruins the pattern.

At any rate until this MJO plays out I'm going to remain optimistic. No way we will get the same results from every MJO position. 5 is the magic region for us and the ECMWF shows us in 4 just after the 10th, with every sign the wave will progress to 5. The models will change at some point if the Maritime Continent wave verifies.

Phase 5?


Attached File  A12E35BA-FDE4-4972-A492-BDBB10F52410.png   347.96KB   0 downloads

#131
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:52 PM

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I recall that convection shifting to the IO was even part of your 1993-esque early summer forecast for us last year. Didn’t really pan out.

I’ve noticed you have done great with the timing of warm spells and ridging out here, but any troughing or significant cool spell for us seems to be much more fickle/difficult to predict, and has a much higher bust potential.


So far, that’s definitely been true. I’ve done better on this side of the country, but you guys seem to have had more cards stacked against you
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#132
Jesse

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:54 PM

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So far, that’s definitely been true. I’ve done better on this side of the country, but you guys seem to have had more cards stacked against you


Just one card. Joker/WPAC.
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#133
BLI snowman

Posted 01 January 2018 - 12:55 PM

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Much drier down here.

 

2014: 37"

2015: 31"

2016: 41"

2017: 32"

 

Eugene is the new Redding.

 

I'm pretty convinced that EUG's rain gauge has changed or become faulty. Compare their precip record to Cottage Grove's, which has a similar historic average, and is even further south aka more Redding-ized.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu...iMAIN.pl?or1897



#134
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:02 PM

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Where on the coast did you live again?

And sorry to hear that.


In Hebo, near Pacific City. It's much nicer in Monmouth, as last winter illustrated with a lot more snow in the valley compared to the coast.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#135
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Just one card. Joker/WPAC.


:lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#136
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:08 PM

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You’ve been saying this for years dude.

 

The super Nino only ended about a year and half ago.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#137
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:10 PM

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Yup.  In spite of what that shows many of our big blasts come with phase 5.  I've been watching this stuff for years and I'm 100% on that.  When the wave gets to the MC it causes the SOI to skyrocket.  That often triggers a favorable pattern change for us.  It is possible the sequence of events that triggers a Western trough happens when the MJO is in 5, but the wave may be progressed beyond that when it actually hits.  Maybe that accounts for the graphic not matching up.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#138
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:13 PM

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Yup. In spite of what that shows many of our big blasts come with phase 5. I've been watching this stuff for years and I'm 100% on that.

I don’t know how accurate those NOAA panels are but that is interesting. Maybe it’s an all or nothing type of thing for us.

#139
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Just hit 32, another chilly day.

 

No doubt the northern half of the state has some low level cold air in play.  The Fraser outflow is still cold and yet higher elevations near there are much warmer.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#140
snow_wizard

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:17 PM

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I don’t know how accurate those NOAA panels are but that is interesting. Maybe it’s an all or nothing type of thing for us.

 

I added some to my post that you might want to read.  I think 5 triggers it, but the wave may be move beyond by the time it actually hits us.  I guess it would be more proper to say 5 sets it in motion.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#141
wx_statman

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:42 PM

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The December monthly record? Wow.

 

Yeah, -40 was the monthly record at the old COOP station that existed from 1908-1999. The current readings are coming from an ASOS station in town. Still, they bottomed out at -44 this morning. Within 3F of the all-time record at the old COOP, which was -47 in January 1916. 


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#142
Deweydog

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:45 PM

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2018z!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#143
Eujunga

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:51 PM

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I'm pretty convinced that EUG's rain gauge has changed or become faulty. Compare their precip record to Cottage Grove's, which has a similar historic average, and is even further south aka more Redding-ized.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu...iMAIN.pl?or1897

 

I wish I could provide some local data for comparison, but my rain gauge kept getting clogged with leaf debris when I was away, rendering the rain readings useless.

 

I recently installed a new screen with an improved design, so hopefully I'll get more consistent readings in the future.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#144
Phil

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:55 PM

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Yeah, -40 was the monthly record at the old COOP station that existed from 1908-1999. The current readings are coming from an ASOS station in town. Still, they bottomed out at -44 this morning. Within 3F of the all-time record at the old COOP, which was -47 in January 1916.


That’s impressive! Thanks for the information.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#145
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 01:56 PM

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Yeah, -40 was the monthly record at the old COOP station that existed from 1908-1999. The current readings are coming from an ASOS station in town. Still, they bottomed out at -44 this morning. Within 3F of the all-time record at the old COOP, which was -47 in January 1916.


January 1916. 👍 😍

#146
Jake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 02:10 PM

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Topped out at 33F today after a low of 26.  A pleasantly chilly New Years day.  



#147
Jake

Posted 01 January 2018 - 02:14 PM

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18Z looking promising out to 138


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#148
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2018 - 02:17 PM

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18Z looking promising out to 138


A step in the right direction. But we need a lot more notches to move. Still not many freezing temps for the lowlands.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#149
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2018 - 02:22 PM

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Topped out at 33F today after a low of 26. A pleasantly chilly New Years day.

Same here, ground is quite hard and frost in the shade still.

#150
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 January 2018 - 02:32 PM

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I want to move to Bend actually. Dry hot summers and usually at least a bit of snow in the winter with much colder temps. Sadly I am suffering from fairly significant epilepsy so I'm stuck where I'm at for now.

Bend is amazing. Wow, really sorry to hear that. I hope things improve soon.

 

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00z GFS in 3 hours 53 minutes