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February 24th-25th Plains/GL's Winter Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Based on the knowledge of the LRC, I'm inclined to believe that we will see a rather vigorous storm system ejecting out of the CO Rockies into the central Plains and eventually cutting up towards the GL's.  There is rather convincing ensemble agreement that a potential major storm takes shape this weekend.

 

Let's discuss....

 

The latest GEFS are trending stronger and wetter across the Plains and Upper MW...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_22.png



#2
CentralNebWeather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:45 PM

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NWS Hastings AFD::

Precipitation
chances returns to the area early Sat morning through Sat
evening, but there are differences with how strong/organized the
system is, will it be a closed system or an open wave. Kept
precipitation type simple at this point with it being several days
away, but at this point would think much of it would be snow,
with more uncertainty for ssern portions of the County Warning Area.

#3
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:43 PM

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0z ICON with a big jump NW from 12z and 18z.

#4
jcwxguy

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:54 PM

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Not a good trend for se nebraska today

#5
jcwxguy

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:55 PM

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Def nw this run gfs

#6
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:56 PM

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Nam and gfs world aparts at hr 84

#7
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:56 PM

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Damnit. Every time a thread is started it jinxes us here. lol


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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#8
CentralNebWeather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:57 PM

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GFS north. I am on Southern edge. Looks like precipitation issues

#9
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Looks like thermals an issue here at 90. Might not last too long though.

#10
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Gem takes the low from central IL to central MI

Crush job here

https://weather.gc.c...ast/135_100.gif

#11
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:01 PM

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Check out the differences in H pressure at 72

GFS

https://www.tropical...018022100&fh=72

GEM

https://weather.gc.c...ast/492_100.gif

GEM has a 1025 H over southern IA while GFS is north into northern parts of minny

Big implications in the track because of it

#12
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:03 PM

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GFS blitzer. That’s at 10:1. Also includes the Thursday system

Attached Files



#13
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:04 PM

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Nam has the high pressure over IA as well

http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=conus&dpdt=

So it’s basically Nam/GEM vs icon/gfs so far

Let’s see what ukie and euro say

#14
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:15 PM

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Nam has the high pressure over IA as well
http://www.pivotalwe...2&r=conus&dpdt=
So it’s basically Nam/GEM vs icon/gfs so far
Let’s see what ukie and euro say


I love these showdowns. You got this one.

#15
james1976

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:36 PM

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2"of crust....ill pass.
Few days to go yet however.

#16
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:38 PM

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I love these showdowns. You got this one.


I rather be in your area right now

Gfs got this

#17
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:45 PM

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Ukie only goes out to 72 I guess

It’s 8 mb weaker than gfs tho at hr 72

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=072

#18
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 February 2018 - 11:36 PM

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I'm just glad to see some drought relief.
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#19
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 03:55 AM

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00z Euro...includes the earlier system...



#20
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 04:00 AM

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Starting to see some consistency between the GEFS/EPS with this one and its remarkably similar to the track the Oct 6th/7th storm took.  00z GEFS total qpf looks mighty juicy as well does the 00z EPS snow mean.

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_23.png

 

 

 

IMO, this is a C NE/NW IA/MN/N WI snow storm...



#21
GDR

Posted 21 February 2018 - 05:09 AM

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Alright keep it that way

#22
Money

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:01 AM

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SPS gonna get crushed

#23
Snowshoe

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:21 AM

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Arkansas is going to have some serious flooding issues! 


Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#24
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:52 AM

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SPS gonna get crushed


12z ICON says differently fwiw. Probably not worth too much.

#25
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:57 AM

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12z GFS not backing down on a MSP crush job...

#26
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:59 AM

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That’s a beauty right there...going neg tilt at the perfect spot
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#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:00 AM

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Oh my....

#28
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:02 AM

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According to the GFS, this run official bombs it out in 24 hours (1002mb into a 978mb storm)...
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#29
Stormgeek

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:29 AM

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Hopefully we can keep this look going. Things have been trending up so far instead of backing down. It seems that it is usually opposite. From what I have seen models usually overdo wrapped up systems and can underdo open waves passing through the region in the medium/long range, leading to some surprises. Definitely liking the looks of this, especially since the Euro is somewhere in the ballpark.



#30
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:31 AM

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That’s one heck of a storm it’s showing no doubt. 12z GEM starting to play catch up. 999 low as it crosses northern Lake Michigan.

#31
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:30 AM

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Holy crap are the GEFS juiced up for MN

#32
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:38 AM

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Holy crap are the GEFS juiced up for MN


Haven’t seen something like this in a long time...both consistency and precip amounts.

Attached Files


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#33
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:40 AM

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Haven’t seen something like this in a long time...both consistency and precip amounts.


Just better hope this doesn’t do the NW trend if the stronger solutions continue.

#34
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Just better hope this doesn’t do the NW trend if the stronger solutions continue.


Always a concern for sure. I plan for the worst and hope for the best.

#35
snowstorm83

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

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Euro taking the goods straight through Norfolk. It's like the atmosphere doesn't know any different and this is the only thing it knows how to do.


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#36
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:17 AM

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12z Euro jumps onboard with an amped solution...

#37
Snowlover76

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:26 AM

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stick a fork in this one for Lincoln 


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#38
CentralNebWeather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:29 AM

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12Z Euro looks like a nice hit from my area to the northeast through Norfolk (no surprise there).  Only seeing the weather.us images, so hard to tell amounts, possibly 8+ I think in some places.  (colors very hard to read so might be off).  If anyone has the Euro snow map and can post it, that is always appreciated. 



#39
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:30 AM

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 I plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=f1OCE3fh2dg



#40
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Damnit

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#41
buzzman289

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:36 AM

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its ugly for CR



#42
CentralNebWeather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:41 AM

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Nothing is set in stone so don't lose hope.  I have seen too many storms this year that looked like sure things hit someplace else.  Still a couple of days away.  I was supposed to be hit by the massive blizzard in January (1 day out) that was a dud here.  I assume nothing, hoping for the best and expecting less.  


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#43
hlcater

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:41 AM

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its ugly for CR


We weren't ever really in the game with this one. As soon as it got within 6 days, models were consistently showing NW of here, which is more than typical of these sort of systems.
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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#44
LNK_Weather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:43 AM

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If Norfolk gets one more thing that we don't I'll need to be admitted to an asylum.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#45
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:03 AM

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Lol i have no sympathy for anyone in Minnesota and South Dakota that posts here. You guys have already had a couple major snow storms, its time to spread the wealth further south. Im all for getting one last big one to get us to average winter amounts then have spring come rolling in.


  • jaster220 likes this

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 13.50"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#46
Tony

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:26 AM

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Nothing is set in stone so don't lose hope.  I have seen too many storms this year that looked like sure things hit someplace else.  Still a couple of days away.  I was supposed to be hit by the massive blizzard in January (1 day out) that was a dud here.  I assume nothing, hoping for the best and expecting less.  

This one is going to be a hard cutter with nothing to stop it. Onto next week



#47
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:30 AM

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Lol i have no sympathy for anyone in Minnesota and South Dakota that posts here.

 

Tell me something I don't know...


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#48
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:31 AM

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If Norfolk gets one more thing that we don't I'll need to be admitted to an asylum.

 

<Prepares Admittance Forms>

 

I hope your Obamacare will cover it; psych wards are pretty expensive...

 

Moreover; once you check in...it is not so easy to check out.



#49
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:35 AM

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 its time to spread the wealth further south.

 

And I thought you were against socialism...


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#50
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Nothing is set in stone so don't lose hope. 

 

"Hope is a dangerous thing"

___Ellis Boyd Redding