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June 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#351
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 06:09 AM

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Happy Father's Day to all the parents out there!  Hope you all can enjoy the day with family today, whether it be at the pool, lake/beach, maybe some outdoor grilling or indoors in the A/C!  What a difference this morning here in the city where I have been staying over the past few days.  Yesterday, it was in the low 70's and comfy DP's at 9:00am, today, it's already a soupy, hot and humid 89F/75F.  The air feels so thick out there today.

 

Gosh, I haven't felt this type of airmass since the summer of '16 when we had numerous hot/humid days as such.  That summer was not an ideal bon fire year that's for sure.  With that being said, relief is on the way but we have to get through the next 2 days for what will be a week long deluge of storms and some places may have torrential rainfall.  00z Euro spitting out nearly 15" of rain near OMA through Friday, way over done, will it happen???  Likely not, but the idea of potential flooding in the central Plains/MW this week is on the table.  Crazy summer pattern with an unusual cut-off trough spinning slowly across the central CONUS.


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#352
Hawkeye

Posted Yesterday, 06:58 AM

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Yeah, models have really become wet, with showers and perhaps a storm for several days beginning Monday.  The euro also has us maxing our near 70 for a few days.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#353
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 09:44 AM

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Mesoscale discussion....tornado watch being issued for MSP and points north:
Regional soundings and VWP data sampled relatively uni-directional
flow parallel to the front, such that upscale growth into several
bows/lines/clusters is expected. In turn, as instability grows, a
scattered damaging wind threat will likely evolve eastward from
Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula. Convective evolution may temper
the hail/tornado threat some, but backed flow near a
modifying/retreating outflow boundary may support semi-discrete
development, primarily from the MN/WI border eastward. This would
locally increase the hail/tornado threat, likely around mid/late
afternoon. Considering these threats, a watch will likely be issued
within the next hour or s

#354
BrianJK

Posted Yesterday, 12:07 PM

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So much for the cap. Storms firing up

#355
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 02:22 PM

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Happy Father's day friends. Hope you all have had a good one!
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#356
Hawkeye

Posted Yesterday, 02:49 PM

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The colors on the drought monitor site should continue to get beaten back into the sw plains.

 

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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#357
St Paul Storm

Posted Yesterday, 06:00 PM

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Localized 3-5” of rain was supposed to have started hours ago and not even a drop here. Storms have literally missed me in all directions by a few miles. Tornado Watch cancelled.

#358
CentralNebWeather

Posted Yesterday, 07:44 PM

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Northern Nebraska is the big winner this summer for severe weather. Night after night after night ..... after night...... I watch from not a very far distance, as storms form to my west and move northeast on a nightly basis. This area might be turning into a tropical rain forest, (only partially joking), first with their amazing winter snowfalls and now their rain and thunderstorms the last 2 months. #jealous.
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#359
gabel23

Posted Yesterday, 07:50 PM

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Northern Nebraska is the big winner this summer for severe weather. Night after night after night ..... after night...... I watch from not a very far distance, as storms form to my west and move northeast on a nightly basis. This area might be turning into a tropical rain forest, (only partially joking), first with their amazing winter snowfalls and now their rain and thunderstorms the last 2 months. #jealous.


Your right, crazy how lucky they have been this year but, I would say that’s the repeating pattern...aka the LRC. I don’t understand it enough to say this or that will happen but the repeating storm after storm is too much of a coincidence. This storm coming up this week will hit the same areas that have been hit so far this year; lucky for me my area has been one of the lucky ones!
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#360
CentralNebWeather

Posted Yesterday, 08:09 PM

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Your right, crazy how lucky they have been this year but, I would say that’s the repeating pattern...aka the LRC. I don’t understand it enough to say this or that will happen but the repeating storm after storm is too much of a coincidence. This storm coming up this week will hit the same areas that have been hit so far this year; lucky for me my area has been one of the lucky ones!


Tom has great knowledge of the LRC. This would be a good case study for it. Talked to a guy last night at a wedding dance who has cattle that he puts out to pasture in the Sandhills of Nebraska. He said he has never seen the grasses this lush and green. Always stories of the haves and have nots relating to weather no matter where you live. May switch around next year to favor above normal precipitation in the southern part of the state if there is some type of El Niño. Long ways down the road yet to see if that transpires or not.
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