June 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Splendid forecast for my area, but the extended does show some heat and humidity building. The 3 H's are returning and this time it will be hotter than what we experienced back in late May.

[St Paul Storm]

"Father's Day Weekend Torch" is in store for nearly all of us this coming weekend.  The A/C's will be humming and those who have seen recent rains will have to deal with nasty humidity this weekend.  Both Hurricane Bud and the tropical disturbance in the GOM will produce ideal "ridging" conditions across the region.  You can't ask for a better heat wave setup in the summer.

 

Geeze, near 80F DP's across the MW this weekend if the 00z GFS is right...down right nasty...

 

 

I was looking at the GFS before I logged on here. Man that would be nasty. Temps around 90 with dews in the upper 70s. Perfect grillin weather for Fathers Day!

[NEJeremy]

Ended up with about 1.8" of rain between the two "events" yesterday, a heavy morning tstorm and then the severe weather yesterday afternoon/evening. Didn't have any hail or wind at my place though.

[jaster220]

Splendid forecast for my area, but the extended does show some heat and humidity building. The 3 H's are returning and this time it will be hotter than what we experienced back in late May.

 

Seeing nothing (yet) to indicate that part. Marshall hit 95F then and it was even hotter west towards Lk Michigan. I'm seeing 88-90F for Sunday depending on the source. Not saying that it can't go up like it did in May, but right now that's the "hot" day. Which, btw, I'd be fine with. Wouldn't even bother with the a/c

[james1976]

[Tom]

A great test is evolving among many mets hyping a return to more heat right around the Summer Solstice and through the rest of the month.  After reviewing the LRC's pattern, the Week 1-2 period should form the "North American Vortex" across Canada.  This should last about 10-14 days, give or take a few days.  In essence, I believe another active period of weather may be in store and we should see several fronts established across the MW/GL's or sharp CF's swing through right when astrological Summer begins.  Let's see how this evolves.

[Niko]

Seeing nothing (yet) to indicate that part. Marshall hit 95F then and it was even hotter west towards Lk Michigan. I'm seeing 88-90F for Sunday depending on the source. Not saying that it can't go up like it did in May, but right now that's the "hot" day. Which, btw, I'd be fine with. Wouldn't even bother with the a/c

I hope it does not get as hot as predicted by my local weatherman that I watch on TV. Hopefully, it remains in the 80s. AC and Sprinklers have been working ovatime so far. To make matters worse, it remains dry.

[Niko]

Currently in the upper 70s and a tad humid w weak storms to my north.

[james1976]

DMX regarding the weekend heat wave. Kinfa funny how they worded it for Friday:

Friday through Tuesday...the main forecast concern was focused on

the heat wave beginning Friday and lasting into early next week.

Confident in three consecutive days of max temperatures well into

the 90s from Friday through Sunday. There were a couple minor

changes with the ongoing forecast, but significant enough that the

heat index forecast was shifted higher. Both Friday and Saturday

afternoons are likely to be slightly windier with models in good

agreement with the deeper mixing. Friday is expected to see the

stronger winds and with highs in the mid-90s and dew points in the

lower 70s, it`ll feel like a blast furnace Friday afternoon.

Saturday, and even Sunday, will not provide any relief. Winds

appear to be weaker and the dew points look to be slightly higher

with less mixing. Regardless, sultry heat index values in the

triple digits are expected during the peak heating all three days

Friday to Sunday. The biggest thing to monitor is the surface dew

points over the weekend as the current forecast still might be a

degree or two too low, especially if the mixing does not

materialize. Overnight lows remain in the 70s over the weekend,

providing little relief the heat and confidence is increasing a

headline might be needed by Friday through Sunday.

[Minny_Weather]

All around beautiful this evening here in Fargo. Temp of 71°F and scenes like this. I'm adding Fargo to my list of places to consider moving next year. Cold Winters make Fargo a turn-off for most, but I consider it a turn-on, especially with June evenings like this.

[OKwx2k4]

All around beautiful this evening here in Fargo. Temp of 71°F and scenes like this. I'm adding Fargo to my list of places to consider moving next year. Cold Winters make Fargo a turn-off for most, but I consider it a turn-on, especially with June evenings like this.

Man, I'd live in Fargo in no time flat. My kind of place! Anywhere that can still do 50/70 with low dewpoints in mid-summer is for me! Looks like I'm gonna lose 5 pounds by this weekend with the heat indexes. Yugh.

[OKwx2k4]

Lol. I looked at Fargo just now. Cons are listed as cold winters, isolation, and low ethnic diversity. Lol. How are cold winters and peace and quiet cons to living there? Unemployment is around 2%. Homes average 200k. High education rate. They must be doing something right in Fargo.

[Tom]

Looking forward to seeing some sunshine today as the fog is clearing up finally.  Been stuck underneath a thick stratus over the past couple days.  Felt like I was living in Seattle or something.  It's amazing how the lack of sunshine can have a mental impact on the human psyche.  

 

The heat wave coming up this weekend is legit and it will "feel" hotter than the first one back in May.  High temps may come close to the 97F mark, which is the highest temp recorded at ORD this season.  I am almost certain a lot of us will be under Heat Advisories in a day or two.

[BrianJK]

Looking forward to seeing some sunshine today as the fog is clearing up finally. Been stuck underneath a thick stratus over the past couple days. Felt like I was living in Seattle or something. It's amazing how the lack of sunshine can have a mental impact on the human psyche.

 

The heat wave coming up this weekend is legit and it will "feel" hotter than the first one back in May. High temps may come close to the 97F mark, which is the highest temp recorded at ORD this season. I am almost certain a lot of us will be under Heat Advisories in a day or two.

Time will tell where we eventually end up on temps this weekend, but it’s going to be downright hot regardless. Heard several claims that the MDW heat wave would be the hottest of the year for many (which could verify) but just thought that was a pretty bold claim to make considering summer hadn’t even started yet. And as you mentioned, it’s without question going to feel much more uncomfortable for everyone with the high humidities.

[Niko]

Its hazy outside now w sunshine and its humid w temps in the 70s and making it into the 80s later today. Heatwave coming for the weekend, as 3+ days marks a heatwave. Mid to upper 90s looking likely. Ugh!

[Minny_Weather]

Lol. I looked at Fargo just now. Cons are listed as cold winters, isolation, and low ethnic diversity. Lol. How are cold winters and peace and quiet cons to living there? Unemployment is around 2%. Homes average 200k. High education rate. They must be doing something right in Fargo.

I can understand cold Winters for those who don't like cold, but quiet? I've been here for 2 days and I love how laid back it is here. Low Ethnic diversity? My question to that is who the hell cares who all live here. It's mainly Scandinavians. Just who happened to settle here. Nobody should consider that a turn-off, and if you do you have issues.

[BrianJK]

Got 98 in the P&C for Sunday

[Hawkeye]

I sure am thankful we got our much-needed 2+" soaker a few days ago, because Sunday and Monday were a bust and now the potential pre-heat mid to late-week storminess is fading.

[Tom]

I sure am thankful we got our much-needed 2+" soaker a few days ago, because Sunday and Monday were a bust and now the potential pre-heat mid to late-week storminess is fading.

Not if you believe the higher Rez NAM brothers! Our areas are not out of the woods just yet to see some pre-heat boomers. We have been in an active region this season so I wouldn’t doubt that we would see some more rain.

[CentralNebWeather]

98, 98, 99, 93. Our forecasted high temps Thursday- Sunday. Quadruple yuck.

[westMJim]

Wow, in looking at the first 12 days of this month one can only say it has been a very nice start to the summer season. So far this month the average high at Grand Rapids is 75.3° and the average low has been 57.0° the mean for the month so far is almost average at just +0.4°  and so far the month has seen only 12 HDD (31 would be average) and only 30 CDD (40 would be average) The next 3 days look it continue that trend before we see some very warm temperatures this weekend.

[Tom]

Sheesh, I wasn't messing around, this cloudy spell over here was very rare!

 

 

Today's sun is especially welcomed!! Upon further review with weather historian Frank Wachowski, the 0% possible sun 6/10-12 was the cloudiest spell in June in 102 yrs--since 1916!

Mo

 

 

[Tom]

This is what I'm talking about, I hope the 12z GFS is onto the idea of drenching rains and suggesting a multi-day severe wx threat across the central Plains as the tropics "marry" a summer time frontal boundary next week, which, of course is the "Summer Solstice Week".

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I can understand cold Winters for those who don't like cold, but quiet? I've been here for 2 days and I love how laid back it is here. Low Ethnic diversity? My question to that is who the hell cares who all live here. It's mainly Scandinavians. Just who happened to settle here. Nobody should consider that a turn-off, and if you do you have issues.

See folks just don't know a good thing when they see it I guess. Lol

[CentralNebWeather]

This is what I'm talking about, I hope the 12z GFS is onto the idea of drenching rains and suggesting a multi-day severe wx threat across the central Plains as the tropics "marry" a summer time frontal boundary next week, which, of course is the "Summer Solstice Week".

 

That would be welcome news around here. Center Pivot irrigation is now running full speed as I took a drive out in the country yesterday. Cloudy and very nice now but the south wind is bringing in moisture, combined with abundant sunshine the next 4 days will lead to a #heatwave

 

 

[Tom]

@ Hawkeye, RPM model nails E IA and parts of IL Thu-Fri period...higer rez models starting to pick up on the idea...we'll see how it evolves...

[Tom]

I hear a lot of talk of a hot finish to the month of June, but the LRC may provide us a clue to think the opposite is to be true.  Today's 12z Euro op and EPS show the development of the "North American Vortex" quite well by the Summer Solstice.

 

Monster Hudson Bay ridge, replaced by a trough in about -7-9 days...

 

 

 

 

 

12z EPS Day 10-15 illustrating the idea of an active pattern....NW Flow...here we go!

 

[clintbeed1993]

I can understand cold Winters for those who don't like cold, but quiet? I've been here for 2 days and I love how laid back it is here. Low Ethnic diversity? My question to that is who the hell cares who all live here. It's mainly Scandinavians. Just who happened to settle here. Nobody should consider that a turn-off, and if you do you have issues.

 

Yep, nothing screams good living like the fantastic diversity of Chicago and Detroit.

[Iowawx]

@ Hawkeye, RPM model nails E IA and parts of IL Thu-Fri period...higer rez models starting to pick up on the idea...we'll see how it evolves...

Do you have the image of that model? I would love to see some more severe storms, hopefully during the daylight hours.

[Niko]

Luckily, the upcoming heatwave does not last long. It cools off into the 70s w storms on Tuesday IMBY.

[Tom]

Do you have the image of that model? I would love to see some more severe storms, hopefully during the daylight hours.

No I don’t...but it’s similar to what the NAM is showing...

[OKwx2k4]

Yep, nothing screams good living like the fantastic diversity of Chicago and Detroit.

:lol:

[Tom]

Just awesome, both the GFS and Euro are turning VERY wet across KS and the southern Plains next week.  I would like this to continue over the next few days.  My gut was right and the models are turning around towards a wetter solution.  This type of pattern suggests to me that some locals in the drought  regions may see a ton of much needed moisture and potentially erode the drought all together.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just awesome, both the GFS and Euro are turning VERY wet across KS and the southern Plains next week. I would like this to continue over the next few days. My gut was right and the models are turning around towards a wetter solution. This type of pattern suggests to me that some locals in the drought regions may see a ton of much needed moisture and potentially erode the drought all together.

That is what some local mets are saying around here Tom. Just need to get through these next 4 days. Forecast is trending hotter here, now 98-103 with humidity. Throw increased moisture into the air from irrigation and it looks brutal. Fortunately corn is still short or the moisture that a corn stalk adds would make it feel like the tropics.

[Tom]

That is what some local mets are saying around here Tom. Just need to get through these next 4 days. Forecast is trending hotter here, now 98-103 with humidity. Throw increased moisture into the air from irrigation and it looks brutal. Fortunately corn is still short or the moisture that a corn stalk adds would make it feel like the tropics.

I was thinking about that the other day.  If it were end of July that would be a different outcome.  Ya, the idea of a wetter pattern next week looking better each day.  Hope you score some storms!

[james1976]

I hear a lot of talk of a hot finish to the month of June, but the LRC may provide us a clue to think the opposite is to be true. Today's 12z Euro op and EPS show the development of the "North American Vortex" quite well by the Summer Solstice.

 

Monster Hudson Bay ridge, replaced by a trough in about -7-9 days...

 

 

 

 

 

12z EPS Day 10-15 illustrating the idea of an active pattern....NW Flow...here we go!

 

DMX morning afd mentioned this

[WBadgersW]

I'm going to be in Duluth this weekend for the Grandmas Marathon. Looks like some stormy weather this weekend up there.

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside. Fantastiko!!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

I was thinking about that the other day. If it were end of July that would be a different outcome. Ya, the idea of a wetter pattern next week looking better each day. Hope you score some storms!

So Tom, you went to St Lous recently? Did you take I-55 from Chicago? I have relatives who live in Bloomington IL so we have driven both directions from there. 2 years ago we went to the Lincoln Library and Museum in Springfield, what a tremendous place.

[Tom]

So Tom, you went to St Lous recently? Did you take I-55 from Chicago? I have relatives who live in Bloomington IL so we have driven both directions from there. 2 years ago we went to the Lincoln Library and Museum in Springfield, what a tremendous place.

Yes, I-55 straight shot into STL. I’ve never been to Springfield, just drove through it many times. The Land of Lincoln!