Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. ).
At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream. Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC. What are your thoughts on that?
I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season. I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation. Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther. I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.
My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season. When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop. Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada. I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.
Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October!