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ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Tom

Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:34 AM

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Yes. That's what the facts are starting to add up to.

I just read that the latest ECMWF seasonal suggests a slow start to winter in the northeast which fits my thinking of early season ridging along the east coast.  Signs pointing to an early season trough carved out in the central CONUS.


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#52
james1976

Posted 08 July 2018 - 04:10 PM

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Is this why the Locust have been singing for the past week? Haha. I could be wrong but that usually doesnt happwn til August around here.
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#53
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 July 2018 - 10:31 AM

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So I just saw the CPC outlook for OND, and it's looking like a moderate Nino then. What I did is I took every year here that had an ENSO of +1.5 to +2.0 in Lincoln in the OND period, because I think that's what we'll be looking at then, and compared it to each of those Winters. The Winters with an ENSO in that window were 1955, 1965, 1972, 1982, 2002, and 2009. 1982 was 2.2, but I figured it's better to err over than under with this one so I included it. I don't see PDO being too much of a factor with the strength of this Nino, but I'll mention that it is weakly positive. We're in a period where PDO is naturally warm, big whoop. I think the ENSO will be main factor in the Pacific this year. I noticed that El Nino Winters tend to be way more front-loaded, then back off as the year goes on. However, that seems to not quite be the case with moderate Ninos. Of the years I listed, only the Winters of 1972-73 and 2009-10 had their snowiest month be in the OND period in Lincoln. Then I looked at temperatures, and most of them had one thing in common: All of those years I listed except 1955 had fast starts to Fall. September was well below normal, and October was cold. However, every year I listed except 2009 brought no significant cold snaps once Thanksgiving hit all the way throughout December. Hopefully this year ends up like a 2009, even though 2009 had a -PDO.

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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5 (Last: 9/1/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 (Last: 9/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 8 (Last: 9/1/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#54
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 July 2018 - 07:37 PM

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So I just saw the CPC outlook for OND, and it's looking like a moderate Nino then. What I did is I took every year here that had an ENSO of +1.5 to +2.0 in Lincoln in the OND period, because I think that's what we'll be looking at then, and compared it to each of those Winters. The Winters with an ENSO in that window were 1955, 1965, 1972, 1982, 2002, and 2009. 1982 was 2.2, but I figured it's better to err over than under with this one so I included it. I don't see PDO being too much of a factor with the strength of this Nino, but I'll mention that it is weakly positive. We're in a period where PDO is naturally warm, big whoop. I think the ENSO will be main factor in the Pacific this year. I noticed that El Nino Winters tend to be way more front-loaded, then back off as the year goes on. However, that seems to not quite be the case with moderate Ninos. Of the years I listed, only the Winters of 1972-73 and 2009-10 had their snowiest month be in the OND period in Lincoln. Then I looked at temperatures, and most of them had one thing in common: All of those years I listed except 1955 had fast starts to Fall. September was well below normal, and October was cold. However, every year I listed except 2009 brought no significant cold snaps once Thanksgiving hit all the way throughout December. Hopefully this year ends up like a 2009, even though 2009 had a -PDO.


Good post sir.

#55
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 July 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Good post sir.


Don't assume my gender.

But thank you, madame.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5 (Last: 9/1/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 (Last: 9/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 8 (Last: 9/1/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#56
Tom

Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Here's the latest ECMWF ENSO Nino plume...looks similar to the CFSv2 in terms of strength...

 

 

 

ps2png-gorax-green-006-6fe5cac1a363ec152



#57
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:23 AM

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Don't assume my gender.

But thank you, madame.


Touché. :lol: Apologies.

#58
Tom

Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:48 AM

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The NMME ensemble suite not as bullish on the strength of the NINO...

 

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

 

nino34.rescaling.NMME.png



#59
Tom

Posted 14 July 2018 - 03:56 AM

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Hot off the press and the latest JAMSTEC model backed off from the previous months idea of the Nino peaking near the Strong category.  The size and over strength subsided this run.

 

 

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Autumn...some notable changes I've notice that popped up on this run is the cooling of SST's compared to previous runs just south of the Aleutians and more warmth across W/NW NAMER.

 

 

ssta.glob.SON2018.1jul2018.gif

 

Winter...

 

ssta.glob.DJF2019.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Modoki NINO forecast looking solid...

 

ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1jul2018.gif



#60
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 July 2018 - 07:51 AM

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Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. :lol: Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. :lol:).

#61
Tom

Posted 14 July 2018 - 01:59 PM

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Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. :lol: Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. :lol:).

At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream.  Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC.  What are your thoughts on that?

 

I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season.  I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation.  Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther.  I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.

 

My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season.  When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop.  Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada.  I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.  

 

Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October! 

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#62
Tom

Posted 15 July 2018 - 04:30 AM

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JMA monthlies showing convection to spark in the central PAC going forward suggesting the beginnings of the central-based (modoki) Nino will emerge.

 

Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

SST's by Sept indicating a better "look" across the central PAC with a blip of warmer waters forming right, dead center in the central PAC.

 

 

 

Y201807.D1000_gls.png

 

 

By Oct, it grows a bit but not to much...

 

Y201807.D1000_gls.png


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#63
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 July 2018 - 06:01 PM

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At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream. Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC. What are your thoughts on that?

I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season. I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation. Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther. I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.

My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season. When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop. Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada. I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.

Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October!


I think you hit the nail on the head. Few more events to look for or sit and observe over the next few weeks but right now, things are running down a pretty good track for a nice close to summer, a beautiful autumn and a possible fast starting winter. Seeing more rainfall chances routinely verify and some different types of wx patterns vs the norm of the last 4-5 years is always a positive sign that something new is ahead for once and that the atmosphere is doing a decent job of responding to ENSO already. That only adds to my confidence that my initial and very early call for a "head-fake" was wrong and that the Niño is here to stay. Love the NPac look. Just gotta get that ridge out west soon to carry things into Fall and heat the NEpac to last into winter. As Tom said, an active EPO and SSW with that set-up in place already, would be enough to go boldly with a colder forecast if all were to work out. Those 2 points alone could be what drives the whole winter.

#64
Tom

Posted 25 July 2018 - 02:56 AM

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In a perfect world, I'd like to see the warm blob just underneath the surface of the water near 120W to shift a bit farther west in time.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#65
westMJim

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:38 AM

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As of this morning here is summery of how July 2018 has been around the state of Michigan. The list is the station, mean temperature, departure from average, rain fall for July and the number of days of 90 or better so far this summer. Grand Rapids 75.6 (+3.1) 2.21” 15 days of 90 or better. Lansing 74.2 (+2.6) 0.89” 15 days. Muskegon 74.5 (+3.4) 1.31” 9 days. Detroit mean 76.6 (+2.9) 0.90” 17 days of 90 or better. Flint 72.3 (+1.7) 1.13” 12 days. Saginaw 74.2 (+3.1) 1.24” 10 days of 90 or more. Alpena 72.2 (+4.9) 2.05” 13 days of 90 or better. Houghton Lake 71.1 (+4.0) 2.57” 8 days of 90 or better.  Sault Ste Marie 71.3 (+6.2) 1.14” 5 days of 90 or better. Marquette 67.6 (2.1) 2.48” only 1 day of 90 or better.

As you can see the warmest location is Detroit the warmest compared to average is Sault Ste Marie the coolest location is Marquette.  



#66
Tom

Posted 25 July 2018 - 07:39 AM

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If these type of trade winds continue across the equatorial PAC, we may see models back off some on the strength of the Nino next month.

 

Di8r32SX4AIDgWz.jpg



#67
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 July 2018 - 12:08 PM

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In a perfect world, I'd like to see the warm blob just underneath the surface of the water near 120W to shift a bit farther west in time.

wkxzteq_anm.gif


Yes. I think if we don't want to see the cold fronts slide off the SE coast, we need to see a west shift. Maybe not but I thought same thing.

#68
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 July 2018 - 12:09 PM

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If these type of trade winds continue across the equatorial PAC, we may see models back off some on the strength of the Nino next month.

Di8r32SX4AIDgWz.jpg


Puts head-fake to warm neutral back on the table too.

#69
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 July 2018 - 03:14 AM

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Looking like I should have stuck with my initial call for the "head-fake" at the very beginning. :( I was pretty solid on that decision when I made it. Neutral winter 2018 is where I'm going to lock in at and if I'm wrong, well, we all know it wouldn't be the first nor will it be the last time for sure. :lol: -AO, EPO, and -NAO for the win.

#70
Tom

Posted 31 July 2018 - 03:50 AM

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Looking like I should have stuck with my initial call for the "head-fake" at the very beginning. :( I was pretty solid on that decision when I made it. Neutral winter 2018 is where I'm going to lock in at and if I'm wrong, well, we all know it wouldn't be the first nor will it be the last time for sure. :lol: -AO, EPO, and -NAO for the win.

You still thinking warm ENSO-Neutral???  At the minimum, I'm a believer a weak Nino is in the cards.  I do see evidence of the models backing off of the "wamer" look.  For instance, the CFSv2 has clearly "cooled" its look over the central PAC over the last 30 days for its August outlook.

 

July 1st run...

 

CFSv2.SST.20180701.201808.gif

 

Today's last run for July...I mean, it literally trended from a borderline mod/strong Nino, into a weak Nino!

 

CFSv2.SST.20180731.201808.gif



#71
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 July 2018 - 02:56 PM

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You still thinking warm ENSO-Neutral??? At the minimum, I'm a believer a weak Nino is in the cards. I do see evidence of the models backing off of the "wamer" look. For instance, the CFSv2 has clearly "cooled" its look over the central PAC over the last 30 days for its August outlook.

July 1st run...

CFSv2.SST.20180701.201808.gif

Today's last run for July...I mean, it literally trended from a borderline mod/strong Nino, into a weak Nino!

CFSv2.SST.20180731.201808.gif


While we may waffle around the .5 mark for a few months to close the year, in terms of "official" Niño, (whatever that is nowadays with the movable parameters climatologists love to use) I just can't say we get there in the trimonthlies. I'm going to lock that in for good. I should have back in May when I was thinking that way initially.
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#72
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 12:26 PM

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I'm hearing the latest Euro Seasonal showed another downtrend in the strength of the modoki Nino.  Signaling the idea of a weak central-based Nino may be in the cards.  JAMSTEC comes out later this week and I'm very curious to see if it, to, trends lower in strength.



#73
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:20 PM

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The next Niño burst will pop right over the dateline. While it still will not be enough to get a Niño off the ground, seeing the forcing shift west and the Alutian low develop over the top of it is really the highlight I'm looking for. Don't need a real Niño to get the job done. Just enough to set a tempo and pump a little moisture. My tempered optimism took a boost, no doubt.

#74
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:42 PM

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There's still room to go '09s route with this thing, which would make it a bust for me but it will have to start a fire right there and keep it going, imo, to have any chance.

Attached File  u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif   182.1KB   0 downloads
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I want this to be a Niño honestly. I'd be happy to be wrong if this works to set it off.
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#75
Tom

Posted 13 August 2018 - 04:20 AM

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Here's a comparison of last months run off the Euro Seasonal to the current run showing the "cooler" Nino trends.

 

July's run...

 

ps2png-gorax-green-006-6fe5cac1a363ec152

 

Current run...notice the dip south for the month of August which the model is suggesting strong indication of easterlies dominating through month's end.

 

DkatbckX0AAHnYt.jpg

 

ps2png-gorax-green-005-6fe5cac1a363ec152



#76
Tom

Posted 13 August 2018 - 04:28 AM

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Hmmm, some considerable sub-surface cooling has evolved across the equatorial PAC of late...there's even some cooler waters growing.  #Ninoheadfake???  @ Okwx, your call may have been the right one buddy.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#77
jaster220

Posted 13 August 2018 - 07:02 AM

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Hmmm, some considerable sub-surface cooling has evolved across the equatorial PAC of late...there's even some cooler waters growing.  #Ninoheadfake???  @ Okwx, your call may have been the right one buddy.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I'm not an ENSO expert at all, but knowing we just had a mega-Nino in '15-16 would argue against even a modest Nino imho. It also seems like every year we go through this period of the models saying "a Nino is coming, a Nino is coming" only to have them back off. I swear these models are program biased to see everything as leading to a hot, hotter, or hottest solution. Ofc, a weak Nino traditionally treats the Lwr Lakes very well so I'd vote for that outcome any day. The rarity of it does  cause me to NOT expect it, even if models want to forecast such. In my mind, a weak Nino is one of those things in life you can only count after it has transpired, not before. It's like the 30 foot putt on the golf course. You know that over a lifetime, you'll make 1 or 2 of those, but there's no way to tell when until it happens, lol


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#78
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 August 2018 - 06:15 PM

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Hmmm, some considerable sub-surface cooling has evolved across the equatorial PAC of late...there's even some cooler waters growing. #Ninoheadfake??? @ Okwx, your call may have been the right one buddy.

wkxzteq_anm.gif


It has obviously given a 2009 moderate style Niño flair to the atmosphere anyway though. If longer term looks are right for winter, it did exactly what it needed to do regardless of where it finishes.
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#79
Tom

Posted 14 August 2018 - 03:32 AM

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From 3 months out, the JMA monthlies did a good job overall predicting the SST's across the central PAC.  Notice that it was showing a much weaker signal for the warming waters across the central PAC.

 

Here was the June run for Sept...

 

Y201806.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Current run for Sept...some subtle differences in the SST's in the N PAC, but overall, it did it's doing a very good.  

 

Y201808.D0900_gls.png



#80
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 August 2018 - 03:06 PM

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From 3 months out, the JMA monthlies did a good job overall predicting the SST's across the central PAC. Notice that it was showing a much weaker signal for the warming waters across the central PAC.

Here was the June run for Sept...

Y201806.D0500_gls.png


Current run for Sept...some subtle differences in the SST's in the N PAC, but overall, it did very good.

Y201808.D0900_gls.png


Wow. I'd say it did very very well.

#81
jaster220

Posted 15 August 2018 - 12:09 PM

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From 3 months out, the JMA monthlies did a good job overall predicting the SST's across the central PAC.  Notice that it was showing a much weaker signal for the warming waters across the central PAC.

 

Here was the June run for Sept...

 

Y201806.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Current run for Sept...some subtle differences in the SST's in the N PAC, but overall, it did very good.  

 

Y201808.D0900_gls.png

 

Ya lost me there buddy. It's still August so how can we tell how it did for next month? Did I miss something?



#82
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 August 2018 - 02:25 PM

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Ya lost me there buddy. It's still August so how can we tell how it did for next month? Did I miss something?


Hes just covering the month to month changes in the forecast. They were comparisons between last months Sept forecast vs this month's.

#83
jaster220

Posted 16 August 2018 - 08:56 AM

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Hes just covering the month to month changes in the forecast. They were comparisons between last months Sept forecast vs this month's.

 

K, I can get that. Just that his past-tense wording threw me, lol 

 

Things could change dramatically tho in a month's time (mid-Sept), but it seems that his arguement is that the waters will continue to trend cooler in region 3.4 thus away from a significant Nino signal. Sounds like he's betting on the JMA painting a more accurate picture for next winter. 


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#84
Tom

Posted 20 August 2018 - 03:20 AM

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Ya lost me there buddy. It's still August so how can we tell how it did for next month? Did I miss something?

My bad, that was a grammar check.  I edited my post to reflect what I meant to say.  Anyway, I saw this post from Ryan Maue and the ribbon of warm waters across the N PAC, along with the warmth building over the ENSO 4.0 region is encouraging going forward.

 

Dk7aP0nVsAEEr9m.jpg

 

I know its still way to early, but it struck me to see the opposite SST orientation when comparing the recent '16-'17 Winter that pounded the west/NW coast.  The current ribbon of warmth, nearly opposite when comparing to the ribbon of cold.  I'm really curious to see which model ends up right with what happens in the N PAC this season.  If, by the end of Oct, the waters across the NE PAC are still warm, then I'd be more confident we see a +PDO this coming cold season.

 

anomnight.11.17.2016.gif


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#85
Tom

Posted 08 September 2018 - 03:38 AM

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Where did all the warm water go???  Boy, what a "head fake" all the models (except the CFSv2) which have all trended cooler across the equatorial PAC.  It's no wonder that a stronger Nino is becoming less likely.  Sub surface warmth has but all dissipated dramatically in recent weeks.  Not only that, but favorable westerly bursts have been non existent.  We'll have to see how this evolves over the course of the next 4+ weeks, but I'm starting to think that a modest weak Nino is in play, instead of a stronger weak/mod event.

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Notice all the cooler waters coming off of South America???  Is this a response from their record cold Winter???

 

sstaanim.gif


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#86
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2018 - 08:49 AM

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Where did all the warm water go??? Boy, what a "head fake" all the models (except the CFSv2) which have all trended cooler across the equatorial PAC. It's no wonder that a stronger Nino is becoming less likely. Sub surface warmth has but all dissipated dramatically in recent weeks. Not only that, but favorable westerly bursts have been non existent. We'll have to see how this evolves over the course of the next 4+ weeks, but I'm starting to think that a modest weak Nino is in play, instead of a stronger weak/mod event.


wkxzteq_anm.gif


Notice all the cooler waters coming off of South America??? Is this a response from their record cold Winter???

sstaanim.gif


Head fake indeed. Still possible we never make official Niño even, in my opinion. The great aspect of this is that eastern Niño regions look to not only stay cool but could likely cool further. Couple this with the warmth off the Baja of Mexifornia and you have the *perfect* southern stream primer. I bit at this, incorrectly in 2015 and 2016 and now know why it fails and produces monster ridges. For it to properly teleconnect to a southern branch dominant pattern, you have to go warm over cool there. The years above were warm over warm. Just another positive, if you ask me.
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#87
Tom

Posted 08 September 2018 - 08:55 AM

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Head fake indeed. Still possible we never make official Niño even, in my opinion. The great aspect of this is that eastern Niño regions look to not only stay cool but could likely cool further. Couple this with the warmth off the Baja of Mexifornia and you have the *perfect* southern stream primer. I bit at this, incorrectly in 2015 and 2016 and now know why it fails and produces monster ridges. For it to properly teleconnect to a southern branch dominant pattern, you have to go warm over cool there. The years above were warm over warm. Just another positive, if you ask me.

Exactly, that is something I also picked up on and learned as well.  BTW, the Long Lead CPC seasonal came out with their forecast and it shows a near picture perfect scenario for Winter.

 

 

casst_anom.3.png

 

 

However, it's 500mb/Temp forecasts are blow torch...something is wrong with this picture...the image above reminds of seeing maps in the late 70's seasons.

 

cahgt_anom.3.png

 

 

cat2m_anom.3.png



#88
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2018 - 08:59 AM

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Exactly, that is something I also picked up on and learned as well. BTW, the Long Lead CPC seasonal came out with their forecast and it shows a near picture perfect scenario for Winter.


casst_anom.3.png


However, it's 500mb/Temp forecasts are blow torch...something is wrong with this picture...the image above reminds of seeing maps in the late 70's seasons.

cahgt_anom.3.png


cat2m_anom.3.png

The blowtorch is an overstated Niño feedback in my opinion or a misread of continental Arctic HP maybe. I noted that the CFS does that and I'm not sure why.

Theres just nothing that supports that idea at all. Too strong, too far east.
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#89
jaster220

Posted Today, 06:28 AM

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This is from a news article already a month old, but found the embolded statement worth noting.

 

The official forecast is for an El Nino that tops out at one degree Celsius warmer than average. This would be right on the line between a moderate strength and strong El Nino. It wouldn't be warm enough to forecast a warmer than average winter in Michigan with high certainty. But it would be warm enough to know that a warmer than average winter is possible.

The forecasting of ocean temperatures a few months in the future is still not real accurate. Typically we see the ocean temperature forecast change by one-half of a degree either colder or warmer as we get closer to winter.

The thing to keep an eye on is the ocean temperature forecast. If we see the models and the official forecast increasing the El Nino strength, it would be truly time to get happy or sad about Michigan's winter.

 

That +/- half a degree will make or break it for #puremichigan. Let's hope it heads in the right direction. 



#90
Niko

Posted Today, 10:26 AM

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This is from a news article already a month old, but found the embolded statement worth noting.

 

 

That +/- half a degree will make or break it for #puremichigan. Let's hope it heads in the right direction. 

:)