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ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Tom

Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:34 AM

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Yes. That's what the facts are starting to add up to.

I just read that the latest ECMWF seasonal suggests a slow start to winter in the northeast which fits my thinking of early season ridging along the east coast.  Signs pointing to an early season trough carved out in the central CONUS.


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#52
james1976

Posted 08 July 2018 - 04:10 PM

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Is this why the Locust have been singing for the past week? Haha. I could be wrong but that usually doesnt happwn til August around here.
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#53
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 July 2018 - 10:31 AM

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So I just saw the CPC outlook for OND, and it's looking like a moderate Nino then. What I did is I took every year here that had an ENSO of +1.5 to +2.0 in Lincoln in the OND period, because I think that's what we'll be looking at then, and compared it to each of those Winters. The Winters with an ENSO in that window were 1955, 1965, 1972, 1982, 2002, and 2009. 1982 was 2.2, but I figured it's better to err over than under with this one so I included it. I don't see PDO being too much of a factor with the strength of this Nino, but I'll mention that it is weakly positive. We're in a period where PDO is naturally warm, big whoop. I think the ENSO will be main factor in the Pacific this year. I noticed that El Nino Winters tend to be way more front-loaded, then back off as the year goes on. However, that seems to not quite be the case with moderate Ninos. Of the years I listed, only the Winters of 1972-73 and 2009-10 had their snowiest month be in the OND period in Lincoln. Then I looked at temperatures, and most of them had one thing in common: All of those years I listed except 1955 had fast starts to Fall. September was well below normal, and October was cold. However, every year I listed except 2009 brought no significant cold snaps once Thanksgiving hit all the way throughout December. Hopefully this year ends up like a 2009, even though 2009 had a -PDO.

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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#54
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 July 2018 - 07:37 PM

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So I just saw the CPC outlook for OND, and it's looking like a moderate Nino then. What I did is I took every year here that had an ENSO of +1.5 to +2.0 in Lincoln in the OND period, because I think that's what we'll be looking at then, and compared it to each of those Winters. The Winters with an ENSO in that window were 1955, 1965, 1972, 1982, 2002, and 2009. 1982 was 2.2, but I figured it's better to err over than under with this one so I included it. I don't see PDO being too much of a factor with the strength of this Nino, but I'll mention that it is weakly positive. We're in a period where PDO is naturally warm, big whoop. I think the ENSO will be main factor in the Pacific this year. I noticed that El Nino Winters tend to be way more front-loaded, then back off as the year goes on. However, that seems to not quite be the case with moderate Ninos. Of the years I listed, only the Winters of 1972-73 and 2009-10 had their snowiest month be in the OND period in Lincoln. Then I looked at temperatures, and most of them had one thing in common: All of those years I listed except 1955 had fast starts to Fall. September was well below normal, and October was cold. However, every year I listed except 2009 brought no significant cold snaps once Thanksgiving hit all the way throughout December. Hopefully this year ends up like a 2009, even though 2009 had a -PDO.


Good post sir.

#55
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 July 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Good post sir.


Don't assume my gender.

But thank you, madame.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#56
Tom

Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Here's the latest ECMWF ENSO Nino plume...looks similar to the CFSv2 in terms of strength...

 

 

 

ps2png-gorax-green-006-6fe5cac1a363ec152



#57
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 July 2018 - 11:23 AM

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Don't assume my gender.

But thank you, madame.


Touché. :lol: Apologies.

#58
Tom

Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:48 AM

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The NMME ensemble suite not as bullish on the strength of the NINO...

 

nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

 

nino34.rescaling.NMME.png



#59
Tom

Posted 14 July 2018 - 03:56 AM

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Hot off the press and the latest JAMSTEC model backed off from the previous months idea of the Nino peaking near the Strong category.  The size and over strength subsided this run.

 

 

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Autumn...some notable changes I've notice that popped up on this run is the cooling of SST's compared to previous runs just south of the Aleutians and more warmth across W/NW NAMER.

 

 

ssta.glob.SON2018.1jul2018.gif

 

Winter...

 

ssta.glob.DJF2019.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Modoki NINO forecast looking solid...

 

ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1jul2018.gif



#60
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 July 2018 - 07:51 AM

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Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. :lol: Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. :lol:).

#61
Tom

Posted 14 July 2018 - 01:59 PM

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Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. :lol: Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. :lol:).

At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream.  Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC.  What are your thoughts on that?

 

I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season.  I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation.  Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther.  I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.

 

My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season.  When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop.  Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada.  I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.  

 

Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October! 

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#62
Tom

Posted 15 July 2018 - 04:30 AM

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JMA monthlies showing convection to spark in the central PAC going forward suggesting the beginnings of the central-based (modoki) Nino will emerge.

 

Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

SST's by Sept indicating a better "look" across the central PAC with a blip of warmer waters forming right, dead center in the central PAC.

 

 

 

Y201807.D1000_gls.png

 

 

By Oct, it grows a bit but not to much...

 

Y201807.D1000_gls.png


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#63
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 July 2018 - 06:01 PM

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At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream. Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC. What are your thoughts on that?

I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season. I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation. Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther. I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.

My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season. When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop. Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada. I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.

Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October!


I think you hit the nail on the head. Few more events to look for or sit and observe over the next few weeks but right now, things are running down a pretty good track for a nice close to summer, a beautiful autumn and a possible fast starting winter. Seeing more rainfall chances routinely verify and some different types of wx patterns vs the norm of the last 4-5 years is always a positive sign that something new is ahead for once and that the atmosphere is doing a decent job of responding to ENSO already. That only adds to my confidence that my initial and very early call for a "head-fake" was wrong and that the Niño is here to stay. Love the NPac look. Just gotta get that ridge out west soon to carry things into Fall and heat the NEpac to last into winter. As Tom said, an active EPO and SSW with that set-up in place already, would be enough to go boldly with a colder forecast if all were to work out. Those 2 points alone could be what drives the whole winter.