Jump to content

Welcome!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Jan 18th-20th Potential Winter Storm. Can this be The One??

Snow Storm Raging Chicago
- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#51
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:17 PM

Clinton

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 417 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

Hits the same areas that just got hit

Sorry guys I snuck into Chicago and stole Toms snow magnet!



#52
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:17 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18963 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

18z GFS...



#53
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:19 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 18963 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Sorry guys I snuck into Chicago and stole Toms snow magnet!

Tug-a-War!  Haha, it sorta worked for the last one over here after days of watching the models showing my area riding the edge.  Good luck and hopefully we can both get hit good.


  • jaster220 and Clinton like this

#54
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:20 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

There are major 500 mb changes showing on the GFS the last few runs.  First and foremost is the slowing of the main energy coming in from the west.  It's trending toward the slower euro.  What Iowa needs is for the Hudson Bay vort lobes to back off a bit so the main energy doesn't get suppressed.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_z500_vort_us_fh144_trend.gif

 

True dat, but those further east could argue we want it to dig more and have a chance to come NE stronger.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#55
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:24 PM

Clinton

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 417 posts
  • LocationWarrensburg, MO

Tug-a-War!  Haha, it sorta worked for the last one over here after days of watching the models showing my area riding the edge.  Good luck and hopefully we can both get hit good.

I expect we will both do well.  Good luck to everybody and man its great to have storms to track!


  • Tom and jaster220 like this

#56
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:41 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

@Jaster

 

how do the ensembles look?

 

13/12z GEFS looked rather suppressed actually. Not good for SMI.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#57
East Dubzz

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:42 PM

East Dubzz

    Advanced Member

  • Mods
  • 3192 posts
  • LocationDubuque, IA
Man, can’t seem to catch a break this winter. Hopefully some things change!
  • Snowshoe and jaster220 like this

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 15.99"

July rainfall total: 1.79"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.16" (4/28)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#58
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:54 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

GFS certainly caught onto the beefed up qpf potential from 12z to 18z!

 

Attached File  20190113 12z GFS SN h171.GIF   53.9KB   2 downloads

 

vs 18z

 

Attached File  20190113 18z GFS SN h156.GIF   55.86KB   1 downloads


  • Niko and Clinton like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#59
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 02:58 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

13/12z GEFS looked rather suppressed actually. Not good for SMI.

Thanks amigo! We will see so many changes in this one....boy, it will be a long week :lol:


  • Stormhunter87 likes this

#60
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:07 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

WOW!

 

2myvlgz.jpg



#61
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:20 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

WOW!

 

2myvlgz.jpg

 

Haha! Midwest, always the bridesmaid, never the bride


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#62
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:36 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Local weatherman just said that there is potential for a big snowstorm for SMI. Way too early to even remotely know what will happen. Bears watching he said.



#63
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:38 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Haha! Midwest, always the bridesmaid, never the bride

;) :P

 

Looks like an inner runner for them, although, from Philly to Bos gets buried from 12"+ on this run. Too bad is not 48hrs away. :lol:



#64
Money

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:51 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8613 posts

Man, can’t seem to catch a break this winter. Hopefully some things change!


Steal Toms snow magnet from Clinton
  • jaster220, TOL_Weather and Clinton like this

#65
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2019 - 03:56 PM

Hawkeye

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2595 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The northeast US can get totals like that because they aren't limited to 0.5"/hr rates like us.


  • jaster220, Bryan1117 and snowstorm83 like this

season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#66
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 04:34 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

The EC right now is looking great.....a lot of snow for them. Hopefully, we can get in on some action too. We will see how all of this plays out. Still couple of days away.



#67
Stacsh

Posted 13 January 2019 - 05:50 PM

Stacsh

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 349 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, MI
This will be South. At least for Michigan folks. This Will be a record for least snowiest winter Ever. Depressing. Southern Jet FTW. WWE (Worst Winter Ever). Enjoy the snow everyone else.

#68
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:01 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

This will be South. At least for Michigan folks. This Will be a record for least snowiest winter Ever. Depressing. Southern Jet FTW. WWE (Worst Winter Ever). Enjoy the snow everyone else.

 

Not sure this comes all the way into GR turf, but those of us 94 and south can at least share in the fun IF things go our way. Just for giggles, the 18z GEFS mean snow axis was a bit further north than it's 12z. Last minute north trends happened with this last storm, nothing says can't happen again. Many 13/12z EPS member had good snows way north in MI. One even whiffed Marshall to the north.

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_174.png


  • Tom, Bryan1117 and Clinton like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#69
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:30 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

In my gut, I really feel that with a stronger shortwave and surface reflection, the idea of WAA getting the liquid line up to I-70 as shown here by the 13/18z FV3 makes a lot of sense.

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#70
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:45 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

This will be South. At least for Michigan folks. This Will be a record for least snowiest winter Ever. Depressing. Southern Jet FTW. WWE (Worst Winter Ever). Enjoy the snow everyone else.

Way too soon to even know where, when and how far S/N this far out. Give it time. Either we will get snow or we will not. Thats the beauty of weather.



#71
Stormhunter87

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:38 PM

Stormhunter87

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 944 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE
Icon going way south.

#72
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:39 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Way too soon to even know where, when and how far S/N this far out. Give it time. Either we will get snow or we will not. Thats the beauty of weather.

 

This. 14/0z ICON goes so far south it whiffs this entire sub-forum


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#73
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:40 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Icon going way south.

 

Not sure how well it's reading the strength of the arctic HP, but it comes down like a hammer and pushes it so far south it never recovers any latitude. Discouraging to say the least


  • Clinton and Stormhunter87 like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#74
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:55 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

14/0z GFS @84 looks warm, north, and weak fwiw. Lots to sort out yet peeps - don't touch that dial

 

EDIT- that's the little forerunner wave on Thurs, not the main event.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#75
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:06 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

14/0z GFS at h120 snow advancing to ORD, h126 in SWMI :)  RN/SN line to STL-ish


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#76
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:07 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

GFS through 141- note this also contains weak first wave. 

 

Attached File  USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_141.gif   63.8KB   0 downloads


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#77
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:11 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

GFS through 141- note this also contains weak first wave. 

 

attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOWI72_sfc_141.gif

 

Again that HP crashes the party and it can't make the turn N. Just gets squished eastward and weakens. IF these models are over-playing that HP movement, it would change how this plays out quite a bit for those that need it to at least keep moving east.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#78
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:13 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

cmc is well N of the GFS.


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#79
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:16 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Icon going way south.

 

..and 14/0z GGEM with axis NORTH of mby - hahahahaha

 

gem_asnow_us_28.png


  • Niko and Snowshoe like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#80
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:17 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6437 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

:rolleyes: Something tells me this is far from set in stone


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#81
jlp

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:21 PM

jlp

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 51 posts
  • LocationNew Berlin WI
Cmc fills the snow hole in Wisconsin. Going to be a long week of inconsistent models.
  • jaster220 likes this

#82
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:41 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

UKIE has a nice track for those (assuming) in most of IA (esp E) N.IL and  maybe S.WI. Hard to tell without precip maps. 


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#83
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:45 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

Right now - nearly all the guidance I have see agress pretty good on loc of the L at HR 120. (pretty consistent also)  IT's between that and HR 144 that differences occur. So one would think 24 hours from now..... Yeah right.


  • jaster220 likes this

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#84
jlp

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:52 PM

jlp

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 51 posts
  • LocationNew Berlin WI
Today was a good day. According to the models everyone was a winner at one point.
  • Niko and jaster220 like this

#85
jcwxguy

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:11 PM

jcwxguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1758 posts
  • LocationGretna, NE

*
POPULAR

Ukmet qpf

Attached Files


  • Niko, Tom, Hawkeye and 3 others like this

#86
hlcater

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:23 PM

hlcater

    Awesome

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1682 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

Ukmet qpf

 

Very large area of 12+ inches, even the 0.5-0.75" QPF would likely yield 8-12 inches as this storm(for the first time this season) has a solid possibility of higher ratios. GFS says 15:1???


  • Tom, jaster220, Grizzcoat and 1 other like this

2018-19 Snowfall:

 

TOTAL: 48.0"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan. 22: 5.0") (Jan. 26: 1.5") (Jan. 28: 3.0") (Jan. 31: 3.1") (Feb. 10: 1.2") (Feb. 12: 8.2") (Feb. 17: 7.8") (Feb. 20: 4.0")

 

Formerly NWLinn


#87
Money

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:24 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8613 posts
Gfs ensembles had a noticable shift north
  • jaster220 likes this

#88
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:35 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

FV3 also a good hit for E.NE / most of iA / N.IL into S.MI. Long ways to go on this one but the models are pretty consistent at a pan handle low forming at HR 120 with Arctic air ready to plunge. 


  • Niko, Tom and jaster220 like this

2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#89
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:37 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

..and 14/0z GGEM with axis NORTH of mby - hahahahaha

 

gem_asnow_us_28.png

Gives my area 10+..... :lol:...too bad its not 36-48hrs away.


  • jaster220 likes this

#90
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:38 PM

Hawkeye

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2595 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

The storm is there.  We just need the pieces to come together just right... or at least not wrong.  I guess I'll be staying up for the euro this week.


  • Niko, Tom, jaster220 and 1 other like this

season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#91
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:45 PM

Niko

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6812 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

The storm is there.  We just need the pieces to come together just right... or at least not wrong.  I guess I'll be staying up for the euro this week.

Me too....starting on Thursday :lol:



#92
Stormhunter87

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:47 PM

Stormhunter87

    Forum Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 944 posts
  • LocationPapillon, NE
Fv3 looking better but also showing a storm after this one hmmm.
  • Clinton likes this

#93
TOL_Weather

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:21 PM

TOL_Weather

    Opinions don't care about your feelings

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4993 posts
  • LocationHolland, OH

Fv3 looking better but also showing a storm after this one hmmm.


That would be the best clipper we've ever had here if that next wave comes to fruition. The GFS models have been the only ones to show it thus far though so I'm fully expecting it to disappear. Clippers are a whole different animal and when only one model 9 days out is showing it it's probably best to bet on it not happening.
  • Stormhunter87 likes this

2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 7 (Last: 6/25/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#94
jcwxguy

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:28 PM

jcwxguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1758 posts
  • LocationGretna, NE
Euro solid hit for Lincoln/Omaha and points south and east
  • Clinton likes this

#95
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:29 PM

Hawkeye

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2595 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

I can't see the precip maps, yet, but the euro appears to be another crush job for areas just south and east of Iowa... maybe better than 12z.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#96
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:30 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

Classic IA midwinter storm on the Euro. Alse elsewhere. Will post a map soon but the ratios looks to be unreal in IA> 


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#97
snowstorm83

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:32 PM

snowstorm83

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 490 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE

Columbus Ohio gets crushed on the Euro. Poor I-95 cities look about 3-5".


2018-19 Winter in Lincoln, NE: 55.5" of snow (2nd snowiest on record)


#98
Grizzcoat

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:32 PM

Grizzcoat

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2161 posts
  • LocationCentral Iowa

DSM-

 

FRI 18Z 18-JAN  -8.6    -3.9    1025      78      91    0.01     553     534   
SAT 00Z 19-JAN  -8.4    -5.7    1023      83      99    0.01     552     534   
SAT 06Z 19-JAN  -8.3    -8.5    1024      86      97    0.37     551     532   
SAT 12Z 19-JAN  -9.3    -9.9    1025      82      95    0.16     550     531   
SAT 18Z 19-JAN -10.5   -12.3    1028      74      88    0.02     549     528


2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#99
jcwxguy

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:33 PM

jcwxguy

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1758 posts
  • LocationGretna, NE
Remember this is 10:1

Attached Files



#100
Money

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:34 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8613 posts

Remember this is 10:1


Whats it like to the East of that?





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Snow, Storm, Raging, Chicago