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California Drought-Weather Discussion 2014

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#51
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 29 January 2014 - 04:51 PM

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The air quality here in Socal has been really lousy the last 3 days with a mixture of smog / fog or whatever, and has just been plain ugly. I am ready for a change to wetter weather, which we have a chance of tomorrow and into Friday morning, but nothing like a classic mid-winter storm down here. It is certainly good to see Norcal getting some much needed rain and snow, but unfortunately, it looks as if it will be dry again next week and I certainly hope it doesn't stay dry again for weeks on end like it was earlier this month.



#52
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 29 January 2014 - 04:53 PM

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Inversion creating wide difference in temps coast to inland.  Ocean temps [60-63f] promotes stratus.

 

Welcome back to the forum!



#53
Utrex

Posted 31 January 2014 - 06:49 PM

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A good storm that we need:


GFS_3_2014013118_F288_PCPIN_96_HR.png
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#54
iFred

Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:55 PM

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I hope this works out for you guys, a dry California evokes visions of "Escape From LA"



#55
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 01 February 2014 - 01:09 AM

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I hope this works out for you guys, a dry California evokes visions of "Escape From LA"

 

.01" fell here in Orange last night with about 5-10 minutes of rain, which is also the monthly total for January. A very poor month for rainfall, indeed. The last measurable rain here was way back on December 19. I surely would like to see the storm depicted on that model run posted above to verify, but it is still 10+ days out and anything could change before then.



#56
richard mann

Posted 01 February 2014 - 03:05 AM

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-
 
130920-140131_precip_nwrfc-t.jpg
130920-140131 precip nwrfc
 
130920-140131_precip_canvrfc-t.jpg
130920-140131_precip_canvrfc
 
130920-140131_precip_conus-t.jpg
130920-140131_precip_conus

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

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#57
richard mann

Posted 01 February 2014 - 03:50 AM

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(.. connected to post just above.)

Recent NWS WFO "Weather Stories", related.

a-will_storm_door_open-t.jpg
Storm door

b-final_numbers-days_without_precip-t.jp
Days without precip.

c-outlook_ncal-t.jpg
Current outlook N Ca

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

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#58
Andie

Posted 01 February 2014 - 10:19 AM

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Article on the drought with some troubling photos.
This year fire season look scary.

http://www.huffingto...kusaolp00000003

Hoping the best for you all for rain. I know our drought height was horrible. We are better but not out of the woods totally.
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#59
Eujunga

Posted 01 February 2014 - 03:08 PM

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.01" fell here in Orange last night with about 5-10 minutes of rain, which is also the monthly total for January. A very poor month for rainfall, indeed. The last measurable rain here was way back on December 19. I surely would like to see the storm depicted on that model run posted above to verify, but it is still 10+ days out and anything could change before then.

 

.02" here.  Downtown L.A. recorded only a trace.  Does a trace count for the record books?  If not, then 2014 joins 1972, 1976, and 2003 as the only totally dry Januaries in L.A. history.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#60
richard mann

Posted 02 February 2014 - 12:19 AM

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Sacramento more specific.  Certainly noteworthy.
 
SPECIAL WEATHER/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
202 PM PST SAT FEB 1 2014

.. A PLETHORA OF RECORDS SET IN SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT
JANUARY 2014 DURING THIS HISTORIC DROUGHT...

JANUARY 2014 RE-WROTE THE RECORD BOOKS IN SACRAMENTO. HERE ARE
THE HIGHLIGHTS, MANY RECORDS NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN THE CAPITAL
CITY.

1. LONGEST DRY PERIOD DURING THE RAINY SEASON (NOV-MAR)
FROM DEC 7, 2013 TO JAN 29, 2014, 52 DAYS. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 44 DAYS FROM NOV 15, 1976 TO DEC 28, 1976 (MEASURABLE RAIN)

2. THE THIRD DRIEST JAN IN HISTORY SINCE 1850 WITH 0.20 INCHES
DATING BACK TO SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION RECORDS.

3. JAN PRECIPITATION ENDED WITH 0.20 INCHES. NORMAL IS 3.97 INCHES.
THIS IS ONLY 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

4. JAN 2014 BROKE HIGHEST AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH 66.1
DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 62.1 DEGREES SET IN 1976. AVERAGE
MONTHLY MAXIMUM ONLY 55.1 DEGREES.

5. NEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF JAN SET ON JAN 24, 2014
OF 79 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 74 DEGREES ON JAN 31,1976.

6. JAN 2014 BROKE THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AT 7 DAYS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 6 DAYS
SET IN 1976.

7. TIED THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER WITH 3 DAYS IN JAN FROM JAN 23, 2014 TO
JAN 25 2014. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS JAN 29, 1976 TO JAN 31, 1976.

8. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET ON 12 DIFFERENT DAYS IN JAN 2014

JAN 1....65 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1887.
JAN 2....66 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1940.
JAN 3....66 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 64 SET IN 2012.
JAN 7....65 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 2012.
JAN 15...69 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2003.
JAN 16...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1991.
JAN 18...70 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1976.
JAN 20...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1976.
JAN 23...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1948.
JAN 24...79 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 7O SET IN 1984.(ALL-TIME)JAN
JAN 25...74 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1899.
JAN 28...70 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1984.

9. EVERYDAY IN JAN 2014 THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH, NORMAL HIGH RANGE IS 53 TO 57 DEGREES.
JAN 2014 WAS 57 TO 79 DEGREES.

10. FINALLY, WE ARE HOPING FOR A FABULOUS FEB 2014. ALL-TIME RECORD
FOR RAIN IN FEB IS 10.30 INCHES SET IN 1986.

HAVE A NICE WEEKEND !

SPECIAL NOTE: SACRAMENTO STATICAL DATA WAS USED DUE TO ITS
LENGTHY HISTORY FOR RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1849 FOR PRECIPITATION
AND 1877 FOR TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DID BREAK RECORDS, BUT DUE TO THE
DETAILED DATA BASE FOR SACRAMENTO DETAILED INFORMATION WAS
VERIFIED.

$
POWELL


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#61
snow_wizard

Posted 02 February 2014 - 12:36 AM

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I'm surprised nobody is talking about the decent rainfall shown for today on the 0z GFS.

#62
Utrex

Posted 02 February 2014 - 09:10 AM

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Well San Francisco will see some thunderstorms today, few rotating storms possible

#63
happ

Posted 02 February 2014 - 01:12 PM

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Looking thru the data, I see warm Januarys don't mean warmth the rest of winter and as dry. Only 2003 was warmer with monthly average mean temp of 66.5F.  It rained once and I was astonshed to get 0.03 since the ground is so dry. 

 

Jan Data

 

Aver Max: 76.3 [Norm: 69F

Aver Min: 56.3 Norm: 51F

Hi max: 90 Lo max: 63

Hi min: 66 Lo min: 52 

 

Jan Rain: 0.03  Rain Total [jul-jun]: 1.37


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#64
snow_wizard

Posted 02 February 2014 - 01:21 PM

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Looking thru the data, I see warm Januarys don't mean warmth the rest of winter and as dry. Only 2003 was warmer with monthly average mean temp of 66.5F.  It rained once and I was astonshed to get 0.03 since the ground is so dry. 
 
Jan Data
 
Aver Max: 76.3 [Norm: 69F
Aver Min: 56.3 Norm: 51F
Hi max: 90 Lo max: 63
Hi min: 66 Lo min: 52 
 
Jan Rain: 0.03  Rain Total [jul-jun]: 1.37


A 66.5 average in Jan? Wow!!

We have many summers that don't get a month that warm. Isn't there rain in Cal today?

#65
Utrex

Posted 02 February 2014 - 01:59 PM

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GFS_3_2014020212_F192_38.5000N_121.5000W


If I'm correct, this hodograph is signalling explosive supercellular development here in Sacramento…

#66
happ

Posted 02 February 2014 - 02:09 PM

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A 66.5 average in Jan? Wow!!

We have many summers that don't get a month that warm. Isn't there rain in Cal today?

 

As of this very moment it is raining in a widely isolated shower.  59F; it feels great.



#67
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 02 February 2014 - 02:33 PM

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A 66.5 average in Jan? Wow!!

We have many summers that don't get a month that warm. Isn't there rain in Cal today?

 

It is currently raining in northern and central CA right now, including San Francisco. We are forecast to get some decent (for the season) rainfall later tonight and into tomorrow and Orange County coastal zones may receive between .25" and .45".

 

EDIT: This event underperformed badly here in Orange and I only received a measly .05" from it.



#68
KMartin

Posted 02 February 2014 - 03:16 PM

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GFS_3_2014020212_F192_38.5000N_121.5000W


If I'm correct, this hodograph is signalling explosive supercellular development here in Sacramento…

That is only part of the puzzle, most certainly won't happen.


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#69
KMartin

Posted 02 February 2014 - 03:16 PM

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I am pending a Thunderstorm Watch or Mesoscale Discussion for Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego ...


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#70
richard mann

Posted 03 February 2014 - 07:11 PM

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-
Let's hope this hold.   
 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014

SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014

...LOW ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THEN A WET STORM THIS
WEEKEND...

* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
(INCLUDING FOOTHILLS) DUE TO SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

* FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND COVERAGE.

* TIMING AND STRENGTH: THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS BEING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND SNOW LEVELS
IN THE 1500-3000 FT RANGE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
VALLEY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
6000 FT.

 

http://graphical.wea...rs/sto.php#tabs


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#71
Utrex

Posted 03 February 2014 - 10:13 PM

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-
Let's hope this hold.   
 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014
...LOW ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THEN A WET STORM THIS
WEEKEND...
* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
(INCLUDING FOOTHILLS) DUE TO SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
* FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND COVERAGE.
* TIMING AND STRENGTH: THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS BEING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND SNOW LEVELS
IN THE 1500-3000 FT RANGE.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
VALLEY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
6000 FT.

 
http://graphical.wea...rs/sto.php#tabs


It will likely become true.

#72
Utrex

Posted 04 February 2014 - 04:35 PM

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There is this thing called "Weather Karma", or so I'd like to call it. It's when dry periods are replaced with wet periods. Long dry periods are followed by long wet periods.


In case you haven't noticed, the big ridge that causes havoc for the west US is gone. We're already beginning our transition, and the abnormally dry past few years will quickly have karma take effect, thus bringing long times of rain.

Rain quickly rushed in after the 1976 drought, bring above-normal precipitation for two years.


We will see a drastic change very soon.

#73
richard mann

Posted 04 February 2014 - 08:37 PM

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There is this thing called "Weather Karma", or so I'd like to call it. It's when dry periods are replaced with wet periods. Long dry periods are followed by long wet periods.

 
An ultimate balancing out of precip. received by any area more temperate perhaps then. ?
 

In case you haven't noticed, the big ridge that causes havoc for the west US is gone. We're already beginning our transition, and the abnormally dry past few years will quickly have karma take effect, thus bringing long times of rain.

 
Temporarily, leastwise.  And, inline with what thinking more substantive. ?
 

Rain quickly rushed in after the 1976 drought, bring[ing] above-normal precipitation for two years.

 
To be more accurate, the 1976-7 drought.  / Calling into question just where we might be if or where comparing then to now. (?)
 

We will see a drastic change very soon.

 

 I'll allow for a more cautious optimism only, myself.
 
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#74
Utrex

Posted 05 February 2014 - 03:37 PM

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GFS_3_2014020518_F138_PCPIN_96_HR.png

Models are suggesting 2 to 4 inches in the valleyyyyy... Dang

#75
richard mann

Posted 05 February 2014 - 05:20 PM

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.. related, connected to post just above.)

.. One could hope. (!)

With good reason.

precip_returns-t.jpg
Precip. Returns

140205_wx_story_img-b-sto-t.jpg
general, related.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/


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#76
Utrex

Posted 06 February 2014 - 07:58 PM

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Surprised nobody's raving about the pineapple express we're about to have!

#77
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 06 February 2014 - 10:05 PM

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Surprised nobody's raving about the pineapple express we're about to have!

Norcal is going to see a good deal of much-needed rain out of this. There has been off and on light rainfall here in Socal this afternoon and tonight from a storm that moved ashore last night. However, this upcoming Pineapple Express is not going to affect Socal because there is a low amplitude ridge off the Socal coast.



#78
richard mann

Posted 06 February 2014 - 10:20 PM

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Surprised nobody's raving about the pineapple express we're about to have!

 

.. Cautious, anticipation. 


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#79
KMartin

Posted 07 February 2014 - 12:13 AM

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I already did rave about it days ago -

 

For parts of: Northern California from San Fransisco North to Crescent City and across the Redding and Sacramento Valley areas …
 

Office:  TheWeatherSpace.com has issued a Flood Watch effective Thursday through this weekend …
 

Issued:  2/4/2014 at 7:10pm PST
 

Discussion:  A series of storms will hit the area starting Thursday, with the strongest over the weekend as the atmospheric river aims Northern California for some much needed rainfall.  The strongest storm hits over the weekend and end totals from Thursday through Monday will be beneficial, with 1-2″ in the valleys of Sacramento, 4″+ for Redding, and 4-5″+ for Crescent City to Fort Bragg where the highest rainfall totals will be.  San Francisco may get 1-2″ of rain, but the strongest impact of this atmospheric river will be north of there.

2414f-1000x666.jpg


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#80
richard mann

Posted 07 February 2014 - 06:08 PM

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So far, so good here where I am. 
 
A quarter of an in an hour looked at more generally, since just after noon 
 
Wx Underground's, main history and graph for a local station near to me for today to this point. 
 
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCAPARAD2&month=2&day=7&year=2014
 
.. Chico, "down the hill" from, and to the east of where I am, not having faired quite as well with having gotten more separated periods of rain, apparently, with this first wave.
 
  The three main translated Metars, generated hourly, showing rain. In reverse chronological order, most recent to earlier in the day.  Strongest earlier mid-afternoon apparently.
 
metars_chico-140207.jpg
 
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/
 
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&loop=no&rid=bbx
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=bbx&product=NTP&loop=yes


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#81
Utrex

Posted 07 February 2014 - 07:57 PM

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I hardly consider this first Friday wave a "storm", other than those striking gusts we received. Tomorrow is when things get exciting. Stronger winds + heavy downpours.

#82
happ

Posted 07 February 2014 - 10:52 PM

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Not too promising for more rain in SoCal this weekend unlike the northern part of the state.  But the weather has been cool and moist.  Recorded 7 consecutive days below 70F; more than the entire month of January.  Also mostly 40's minimums this week while there were none last month.  Coolness helps keep soil moisture levels from reaching fire alert levels.  January seemed like one long santa ana event.

 

Feb rain: 0.38

Rain total [jul-jun]: 1.75



#83
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 08 February 2014 - 10:28 PM

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I am absolutely fed up with the fact that we can't seem to get any meaningful rainfall in Socal so far this winter, after an ultra dry season last year especially from January onward. Every storm that has passed through here so far has brought .5" or less of rainfall and that occurred back in late November with a total of .37". There is no meaningful rainfall in the forecast down here for the next 7 days aside from some possible drizzle tomorrow night into Monday morning. I am, however, glad to see Norcal getting significant rain and snow where it is desperately needed, but I would like to see some of that down here as well. Norcal has really been at the epicenter of this drought compared to what the normally see.



#84
lightning 2.0

Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:21 AM

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Besides one freak downpour in December it has been a real sad winter. 



#85
Chris

Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:11 AM

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I'm glad to see at least part of California get some rain.  Its a pattern change if nothing else.



#86
happ

Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:48 AM

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For SoCal, this week will look like a continuation of a bad dream per NWS_LA:

 

"LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
  LONG TERM FCST LOOKS VERY DULL AND RATHER UNCHANGING. EAST PAC RIDGE 
  TO THE SW WILL KEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD WITH 582 DM HGTS. 
  WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND NEUTRAL FLOW FROM/TO THE EAST. 
  LOOK FOR FOUR SIMILAR DAYS IN ROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE 
  NORMAL TEMPS."
 



#87
snow_wizard

Posted 10 February 2014 - 09:51 PM

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For SoCal, this week will look like a continuation of a bad dream per NWS_LA:

 

"LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
  LONG TERM FCST LOOKS VERY DULL AND RATHER UNCHANGING. EAST PAC RIDGE 
  TO THE SW WILL KEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD WITH 582 DM HGTS. 
  WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND NEUTRAL FLOW FROM/TO THE EAST. 
  LOOK FOR FOUR SIMILAR DAYS IN ROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE 
  NORMAL TEMPS."
 

 

 

I would be losing my sanity if I lived down there.



#88
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 10 February 2014 - 10:55 PM

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I would be losing my sanity if I lived down there.

 

It is absolutely driving me crazy right now, and I have lived here my entire life, and I know that this year is so abnormal compared to most other years. The weather used to be more exciting down here in past winters, believe it or not, and we generally had enough variety of weather in most winters to be satisfying, but not these last two years. 

 

We are definitely prone to drought periods, but this recent dry period is in a league of its own and it has been absolutely horrible for anybody who likes a bit of variety in the weather, and has been horrible in terms of water supply in the state. This pattern seemed to start during the 2011-12 season, in which storms were coming down from British Columbia and the exact trajectory determined who would get rain and who wouldn't, and Norcal really started to get dry during this period. That year finished with just over 8" for Los Angeles. Then 2012-13 brought some rain in November and December, but nothing all that heavy. It was from January onward in 2013 when this drought pattern really became entrenched. Hardly any storms were able to come in from straight off the Pacific to bring a healthy dose to the state and that continued almost unabated until just a couple of weeks ago when Norcal finally had some stronger storms that hit the coast that just ended the other day. Socal hardly received any rain with these storms, and my total for February so far is a whopping .17".

 

I estimate that I have only received something on the order of 3.6" or 3.7" of rain here at my location since the beginning of January 2013! I will verify that with my records and will post an exact total when I do it. A good year will bring a similar amount rain in a winter month around here, and even La Nina years have had months that have exceeded 3.7" such as December 2010 and January 2008.



#89
Utrex

Posted 10 February 2014 - 11:49 PM

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I personally think next winter is the jackpot. With el nino patterns finally developing, we could get the subtropical jet into CA bringing heavier storm systems.

#90
Chris

Posted 11 February 2014 - 09:49 AM

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I personally think next winter is the jackpot. With el nino patterns finally developing, we could get the subtropical jet into CA bringing heavier storm systems.

 

The Euro long term anomalies map shows the ridge coming back at the end of February.



#91
PRISM

Posted 11 February 2014 - 11:43 AM

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The February 1, 2014 Water Supply Index (WSI) and Bulletin 120 (B120) forecasts. The forecasts include observed conditions through the end of January.  The forecasts are posted at:

 

WSI:    http://cdec.water.ca...progs/iodir/wsi

B120:   http://cdec.water.ca...gs/iodir?s=b120

 

Forecast Summary:

The projected median April-July runoff in the major Sierra river basins ranges from 14 percent on the Tule River to 55 percent on the Pit River.  Forecasted median Water Year runoff ranges from 16 percent for the Tule River to 43 percent for the Total Inflow to Shasta Lake.  These first 4 months of this water year have been persistently dry, but remember California climate has also been persistently variable too.  The WSI forecast can be summarized as follows:

 

 

Sacramento River Unimpaired Runoff Water Year Forecast                    6.2 MAF

(50 percent exceedance)                                                                               (34 percent of normal)

Sacramento Valley Index (SVI)                                                                    3.7

(50 percent exceedance)                                                                               (Critical)

San Joaquin Valley Index (SJI)                                                                   1.1

(75 percent exceedance)                                                                               (Critical)

 

Runoff:

The low flows this winter are a true reflection of the lack of storm systems moving through California.  Monthly Flows from October through January have not exceeded 82 percent of normal for any forecasted river.  During January, no major Sierra rivers flowed at a rate greater than 45 percent of normal and the statewide average was 8 percent.  The January flows in the Sacramento River, San Joaquin River and Tulare Lake regions were 13, 6 and 7 percent of average, respectively. 

 

Precipitation:

Water Year 2013 -14 continues the persistent dry pattern. The Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation has been equal to or less than 25 percent of the monthly average for all months excluding October which was 27% of normal. January only added 1.2 inches of precipitation to the 8-Station total which amounts to just 13% of the historic monthly average.  The 4.5 inches recorded by the end of January in the Northern Sierra represents 17 percent of average to date and 9 percent of the average Water Year total. This seasonal total-to-date is the all time driest October through January since 1921.

 

The San Joaquin region is also behaving the same as the Sacramento with the same persistent dry pattern.  The San Joaquin 5-Station Index was equal to or less than 22 percent of the monthly average for all months excluding October which was 45% of normal. January added 1.7 inches of precipitation to the 5-Station Index (a half an inch greater than the Northern Sierra). This represents just 22% of the historic monthly average.  The 4.7 inches of precipitation recorded by the end of January in the San Joaquin region represents 23 percent of average to date and 12 percent of the average Water Year total.  This annual total is the 3rd driest October through January since 1905.

 

At the conclusion of the first four months of the water year, precipitation (based on all available reporting gages per basin) in the Sacramento River Region was 15 percent of average to date, the San Joaquin River Region was 21 percent of average to date, and the Tulare Lake Region was 24 percent of average to date.  Statewide, water year cumulative precipitation through January was 20 percent of average to date.  The Statewide cumulative precipitation through January was 10 percent of the historic water year average. 

 

Snowpack:

Snowpack is monitored using two complementary methods: automatic snow sensor (or “pillow”) readings and manual snow course measurements.  The snow sensors give us a daily snapshot of snow conditions while the manual snow course measurements provide a monthly verification of snow conditions in locations where snow has been measured in the same manner as far back as 100 years.

 

On February 1, snow sensors recorded a snow pack that was 5 percent of average in the Northern Sierra, 17 percent of average in the Central Sierra, and 20 percent of average in the Southern Sierra.  Statewide, snow water equivalent based on snow pillow data was 14 percent of the historical February 1 average and 9 percent of the historical statewide April 1 average.

 

Results from the 209 snow courses measured this month revealed a shallow snow pack with small, non-continuous areas of coverage.  Measurements in the Sacramento River Valley watersheds recorded a snow pack that is 5 percent of the historical February 1 average.  Measurements in the San Joaquin Valley watersheds indicated a snow pack that is 11 percent of the February 1 average while the snow pack for the Tulare Lake region was 12 percent of the February 1 average.  Statewide the snow pack was measured at 9 percent of the February 1 average and 6 percent of the historical April 1 average.

 

These measurements set the record for the driest statewide February 1 snowpack since World War II when the bulk of the existing snow course network was in place. There were 55 snow courses which had no snow water content available to be reported, while two courses could not be accessed via their normal means of transportation (snowmobile or ATV) because of the conditions within the watershed.  Several snow survey crews visited snow courses more than once to report the latest gains in the snow pack which came around February 1st.    

 

Weather and Climate Outlook:

After a dry October through January period, storms have arrived this February.  For the next six days storms track primarily across the northern third of the state. For some areas of the North Coast beginning tomorrow nearly 7 inches has been forecasted while up to 3.5 inches have been forecasted for the Upper Sacramento watershed.  Unfortunately, only a half an inch is forecasted for the Lower Sacramento and only trace amounts are forecasted for the San Joaquin watershed.  Over the Northern Sierra, the freezing levels will be at their lowest today, 7000 feet, and increase through Friday.  Current freezing levels are near 9000 feet over the central and Southern Sierra.  Rising freezing levels are expected through Friday.

 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) one-month outlook for February, last updated on January 31, 2014, suggests increased chances of above normal temperatures for California. The only exception is a sliver of Northern California ranging from Redding northward with equal chances of above or below average temperatures. The same outlook predicts increased chances of below normal precipitation ranging from Sacramento southward. The portion of California north of Sacramento is predicted to have equal chances of above or below average precipitation.

 

The CPC’s three-month outlook (February through April), last updated on January 16, 2014, suggests increased chances of above normal temperatures for all of California. The same outlook predicts increased chances of below normal precipitation for California with the exception of the corner near Oregon and Nevada with equal chances of above or below average precipitation.

 

 

Next Update:

A Bulletin 120 Update for conditions on February 11 will be available Thursday, February 13.  The March 1, 2014 Bulletin 120 and Water Supply Index forecasts will be available on March 10, 2014.

 

If you have any questions regarding this forecast, please contact a member of the Snow Surveys staff.  We are happy to help.

 

 

Snow Surveys Staff Contact Information:

Dave Rizzardo, Chief (david.rizzardo@water.ca.gov)          916-574-2983

John King                    (john.j.king@water.ca.gov)                 916-574-2637

Steve Nemeth             (stephen.nemeth@water.ca.gov)       916-574-2634

Andy Reising               (andrew.reising@water.ca.gov)         916-574-2181

Sean de Guzman        (sean.deguzman@water.ca.gov)       916-574-2208

Richard Mora              (richard.mora@water.ca.gov)            916-574-2636

 

 

 

Important Links

 

Full Natural Flow Data:

Daily FNF

http://cdec.water.ca...owsurvey_ro/FNF

Monthly FNF

http://cdec.water.ca...urvey_ro/FNFSUM

Seasonal FNF

http://cdec.water.ca...rvey_ro/FLOWOUT

 

Precipitation Data:

Latest Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Index

http://cdec.water.ca...y?s=8SI&d=today

Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Tabulation Table

http://cdec.water.ca...tations_Tab.pdf

 

Latest San Joaquin 5-Station Precipitation Index

http://cdec.water.ca...y?s=5SI&d=today

San Joaquin 5-Station Precipitation Tabulation Table

http://cdec.water.ca...tations_Tab.pdf

 

2014 WY Precipitation Summary

http://cdec.water.ca...recip/PRECIPSUM

 

Snow Data:

Latest Snow Sensor Report

http://cdec.water.ca...rogs/snow/PAGE6

Latest Statewide Summary of Snow Water Equivalents

http://cdec.water.ca...gs/snow/DLYSWEQ

Monthly Snow Course Report

http://cdec.water.ca...gs/snow/COURSES

 

Extended Regional Forecasts:

California Nevada River Forecast Center 6 Day QPF and Snow Level Forecast

http://www.cnrfc.noa...s/RNOHD6RSA.php

Climate Prediction Center One-Month Outlook Forecasts

http://www.cpc.noaa....dictions/30day/

Climate Prediction Center Three-Month Outlook Forecasts

http://www.cpc.noaa....dictions/90day/

 

Drought Information:

California Drought Information

http://www.water.ca....droughtinfo.cfm

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

http://www.cpc.ncep....al_drought.html


P R I S M

#92
richard mann

Posted 11 February 2014 - 11:13 PM

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-
Atmospheric Rivers Strike the Pacific Northwest
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/atmospheric-rivers-strike-pacific.html
 
From Cliff Mass's "Weather Blog", for Feb. the 11th.


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#93
Andie

Posted 13 February 2014 - 07:06 PM

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So how do you SoCal people feel about this years fire issues ?
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem, First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

#94
lightning 2.0

Posted 14 February 2014 - 11:07 AM

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So how do you SoCal people feel about this years fire issues ?

Its a none issue cause its been so dry no new brush has been able to grow. 



#95
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 14 February 2014 - 03:16 PM

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Its a none issue cause its been so dry no new brush has been able to grow. 

 

The Santa Ana winds have been weaker than normal overall at least for my area the last couple of years, except for an occasional moderate to high-end moderate event like the one we had in mid-January and one that occurred last February sometime. The really strong events like we used to have in the 1990's and early 2000's don't seem to occur anymore for some reason. However, farther inland I have seen some news reports of fairly strong Santa Ana events these last two seasons, even though they have been weaker here in Orange.



#96
Utrex

Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:31 PM

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Bad news: RRR, annoying ridge, stubborn ridge whatever is making a return in two weeks...

#97
richard mann

Posted 14 February 2014 - 10:05 PM

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Bad news: RRR, annoying ridge, stubborn ridge whatever is making a return in two weeks...

 
hey "Utrex", ...
 
Here below is my comment, ver-betum, posted to, .. 

Northern California rain at times this week; amplified North Pacific ridge to return. ?
The most recent blog-entry posted to .. The Weather California Blog
 
... Where I first saw something about the return of an additional at least, also potentially stronger ridge-patterning setup at out at about two weeks.
 
.. Working to keep the "spin" more positive where looking at all things more favorable and against the idea of a more significant drought potential at this point, .. Regarding the more active and wetter, overall pattern shift that you've pointed to above suggested where looking at the ensembles, .. Although the general projection looking out to 2 weeks is currently leaning toward some amount of, even more significant, ridging setting in again during later Feb., .. If there has in fact been a general shift toward wetter conditions at this point as a opposed to more, dryer, that transition could perhaps show up both as and with the current more southward movement and expansion of cold from the north working to squeeze out a bit more rain and snow than is currently being looked at as probable, this with and then perhaps the ridging forecasted, being only more short-lived, and a wetter regime similar in character to this one, returning again in early March.
 
Related:  http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/75-late-winter-2014-colder-air-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=12636


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#98
happ

Posted 15 February 2014 - 01:42 PM

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It is as if everywhere else in the nation is enjoying dynamic weather except the Southwest where nothing is happening.  We can't even get dry fronts just to mix out the air.  The winds are weak and mostly offshore or neutral.  Parts of San Fernando/ Santa Clarita valleys were in the 90's the last few days. :blink:

 

At least there is no grass in the foothills so fires should be insignificant but the mountain forests are in dire conditions.  Is there any natural snow in the San Bernardino mts?



#99
richard mann

Posted 15 February 2014 - 02:31 PM

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It is as if everywhere else in the nation is enjoying dynamic weather except the Southwest where nothing is happening.  We can't even get dry fronts just to mix out the air.  The winds are weak and mostly offshore or neutral.  Parts of San Fernando/ Santa Clarita valleys were in the 90's the last few days. :blink:

 

At least there is no grass in the foothills so fires should be insignificant but the mountain forests are in dire conditions.  Is there any natural snow in the San Bernardino mts?

 

hey happ. 

 

Per my own view, .. The main reason that the valleys that you've mentioned south, are warming to the degree that they have, along with also, for the more stagnant conditions south looked at more generally, is that all colder air masslooked at more broadlyis currently moving steadily more south daily at this point. For general reference sake here, where looking at this idea more in particularly, all cold should continue to do so through the 23rd. 

 

In any case, with this spread of cold south, all warmth generated south of it is being boxed in more and more. And so, with nowhere to go, both temps, and in fact pressure, are being caused to move upward.

 

This is both more typical and more apparent in warmer seasons where more moderating type cooler air has spread south, where looked at more broadly. But appears to be the case for where you are - leastwise and if more only, at this point. 

 

But this could (with emphasis) be a good thing. …. Cold could, press south far enough to steer some warmer, moisture .. your way. 

 

.. If I remember currently, the only real delivery of moisture and precip. that you've had more south this winterif a while agowas where a smaller low had moved down the coast, more just off the coast, and with its having done, spun something significant in toward you once it made it to where you are.

 

Main idea with all of this above, .. With main cold air's recent more stepped up main movement and pace east over the past few days, also (in addition to current spread more south daily) .. being set to slow steadily over the next 5 or so days, things have some chance of setting up, and could at least, more decently for you. 

 

Best I got. 


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#100
happ

Posted 15 February 2014 - 03:59 PM

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hey happ. 

 

Per my own view, .. The main reason that the valleys that you've mentioned south, are warming to the degree that they have, along with also, for the more stagnant conditions south looked at more generally, is that all colder air masslooked at more broadlyis currently moving steadily more south daily at this point. For general reference sake here, where looking at this idea more in particularly, all cold should continue to do so through the 23rd. 

 

In any case, with this spread of cold south, all warmth generated south of it is being boxed in more and more. And so, with nowhere to go, both temps, and in fact pressure, are being caused to move upward.

 

This is both more typical and more apparent in warmer seasons where more moderating type cooler air has spread south, where looked at more broadly. But appears to be the case for where you are - leastwise and if more only, at this point. 

 

But this could (with emphasis) be a good thing. …. Cold could, press south far enough to steer some warmer, moisture .. your way. 

 

.. If I remember currently, the only real delivery of moisture and precip. that you've had more south this winterif a while agowas where a smaller low had moved down the coast, more just off the coast, and with its having done, spun something significant in toward you once it made it to where you are.

 

Main idea with all of this above, .. With main cold air's recent more stepped up main movement and pace east over the past few days, also (in addition to current spread more south daily) .. being set to slow steadily over the next 5 or so days, things have some chance of setting up, and could at least, more decently for you. 

 

Best I got. 

 

Hi Richard

 

Cooler temps would be nice.  The first 9 days were in the 60's so far this month and several nights in the 40's.  I am just wishing for a March miracle like we have had in previous droughts.