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California Drought-Weather Discussion 2014

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#21
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 18 January 2014 - 06:39 PM

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Good news! Gfs models are keeping the precipitation in the long range. What seemed to be a La Nada may now take El Nino conditions in reckoning.


Not only that, but the QBO is almost turning towards it's easterly phase! :D


PNA is also making a huge negative drop, according to current calculations... And the MJO pulse seems to be heading to us. Woo-hoo! Hopefully Socal gets soaked down there too!


It seems there's a 50/50 chance of storms or nothing! However, according to my speculations, I think the "storm spell" will be the one to arrive.

 

We are overdue for a wet pattern this season. If it somehow stays bone dry through the end of March, that would be unprecedented.



#22
lightning 2.0

Posted 19 January 2014 - 09:14 AM

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... Record high minimum temperature yesterday at Sandberg... 

... Record January streak of 80-degree days extended today at Santa 
Maria Airport... 

... Record for most 80-degree days in the month of January tied at 
Santa Maria Airport... 

a record high minimum temperature of 54 degrees was set at Sandberg 
CA yesterday... January 17th. This tied the old record of 54 set in 
1976.

The high of 83 today at Santa Maria Airport was one degree shy of 
the record high of 84 degrees set in 1971. However... this was the 
6th straight day with highs of 80 or above at Santa Maria Airport... 
extending the record set yesterday for consecutive days at or above 
80 degrees in January. The old record for January was 4 consecutive 
days with highs of 80 or more from January 26th-29th 1931. 

In addition... the 6 days with highs of 80 or more so far this month 
at Santa Maria Airport tied the record with January 1976 for the 
most 80-degree days for the month of January. Records for Santa 
Maria Airport began in 1906.

During this streak of warmth at Santa Maria... the highest January 
temperature ever recorded at that station occurred on Thursday at 89 
degrees. In addition... ..The highs of 87 degrees observed Wednesday 
and yesterday tied for the 2nd warmest January day ever along with 
January 13 2009. In other words... from Wednesday through Friday this 
week... three of the four warmest January days ever recorded at Santa 
Maria occurred.



#23
snow_wizard

Posted 19 January 2014 - 01:41 PM

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Good news! Gfs models are keeping the precipitation in the long range. What seemed to be a La Nada may now take El Nino conditions in reckoning.


Not only that, but the QBO is almost turning towards it's easterly phase! :D


PNA is also making a huge negative drop, according to current calculations... And the MJO pulse seems to be heading to us. Woo-hoo! Hopefully Socal gets soaked down there too!


It seems there's a 50/50 chance of storms or nothing! However, according to my speculations, I think the "storm spell" will be the one to arrive.


This isn't an El Nino. Nino 3.4 is at -0.5 and we have had six straight days of +20 or above SOI readings. You can get active weather without a Nino.

#24
Utrex

Posted 20 January 2014 - 07:10 AM

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Alright, so when I observed the latest gfs ensemble, I had to *finally* not look at 384 hours, but 360 hours. This means the jet flow that has been appearing in the long-range for California is beginning to validate more! Will this pattern continue to keep up? Here's an image from the 06z gfs:

GFS_3_2014012006_F360_PCPIN_96_HR.png



#25
happ

Posted 20 January 2014 - 11:22 AM

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I know how ridiculous this winter has become by reminders like crickets at night.  The pets have fleas.  Lowest minimum so far this month is 52; [seven overnights: 60's].  Last measurable moisture was .42 on Dec 19.  Rain year total: 1.34  



#26
Chris

Posted 20 January 2014 - 11:53 AM

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I know how ridiculous this winter has become by reminders like crickets at night.  The pets have fleas.  Lowest minimum so far this month is 52; [seven overnights: 60's].  Last measurable moisture was .42 on Dec 19.  Rain year total: 1.34  

 

Welcome back, but I forgot where you're from.



#27
Eujunga

Posted 20 January 2014 - 11:28 PM

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First post in a while, and first one on new format.

 

Relentless offshore flow and hilltop location in Tujunga has resulted in a totally dry January running about +11 degrees above 20-year average thus far, with more crazy warm weather to come this week.

 

Had to run a/c the other day, and even long-established landscaping is suffering from drought.

 

This "winter" really is one for the books.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#28
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 20 January 2014 - 11:51 PM

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I just ran across an article from the NY Times stating that filthy emissions from China's export industry are contributing to our air pollution in the western U.S., including California:

 

http://www.nytimes.c...finds.html?_r=0

 

This is making me more curious whether it is possible that the pollution from China may be indirectly or directly modifying the weather patterns in the North Pacific in some way.



#29
Utrex

Posted 21 January 2014 - 05:46 PM

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GFS_3_2014012118_F384_PCPIN_96_HR.png gfs

#30
Alec Isaacs

Posted 21 January 2014 - 07:00 PM

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I think the ridge could weaken early February allowing some precipitation, but it really is difficult forecasting that far out.


Check out my website: http://usforecastnetwork.com


#31
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 21 January 2014 - 07:41 PM

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I think the ridge could weaken early February allowing some precipitation, but it really is difficult forecasting that far out.

 

I think the pattern is going to change by the beginning of February because the west coast is due for a change to wetter conditions. Even the Pacific NW has been much drier than average this fall and winter. It would be unprecedented if the pattern remained dry all the way til the end of March.



#32
Utrex

Posted 21 January 2014 - 08:35 PM

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I can feel it. As February approaches, a due change will occur where ridiculous lows will form, eventually destroying that ridge + high.

#33
lightning 2.0

Posted 22 January 2014 - 12:17 PM

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It hasn't changed yet why would it change over night? I think the ridge will hold in place but it will be a month a little more like December. 



#34
Utrex

Posted 22 January 2014 - 04:44 PM

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It changed. 12z and 18z show storms coming through Norcal

#35
KMartin

Posted 22 January 2014 - 07:34 PM

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Never fear and not know what it coming .. .I am here now ... Details will never be the same again ...


  • lightning 2.0 and Alec Isaacs like this

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#36
Black Hole

Posted 22 January 2014 - 08:54 PM

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Welcome back Kevin, hope you are well.



#37
KMartin

Posted 23 January 2014 - 08:42 AM

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Thanks, I have surgery in a week so I have to be put down.  Hope I wake up lol.  At least the weather is boring so I can recover.


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#38
Utrex

Posted 24 January 2014 - 03:39 PM

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It seems California will receive rain soon.

#39
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 24 January 2014 - 04:22 PM

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It seems California will receive rain soon.

 

Boy I sure hope so! I am really getting tired of this very dry pattern, especially after it has been going on since last winter. I am becoming increasing worried about our water situation going into the spring and summer months and also am worried that mandatory water restrictions are going to implemented soon if we don't turn wetter.



#40
Utrex

Posted 24 January 2014 - 05:03 PM

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Well...

I laugh at scientists. Prediction scientists.

In 2010,they said that record upper-low was a preview of what was to come. Did anything else more powerful happen? No.

Now they claim this drought is just the beginning. It will get way worse.

Nope. Looking at tree rings won't solve anything. Our pattern has shifted and we won't look back in the past that far. I think we're going through a dry phase, and this "alignment" so to speak will soon not be aligned any longer.




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