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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Folks, we just about made it through one of the warmest Summers in recent memory.  I believe many of us experienced a Top 5 Summer in terms of warmth.  Phew, thank goodness its almost over!  Do you agree???  Well, to those who have waited patiently (myself included)...does nature have a pleasant gift in return???  It appears almost likely that we will welcome the first month of met Autumn with a major shift in the overall weather pattern in a timely fashion.  Let's discuss....

 

From what has been a hot and dry August, it will more than likely turn very active, cool and wet for a majority of our Sub.  The latest 12z EPS is suggesting several strong CF's to traverse the Sub, each one delivering rounds of possible strong/severe storms along with penetrating the cooler air very far south.  We have not seen such a pattern during the opening days/weeks of September in a long time.  

 

Check out the latest maps off the 12z EPS...

 

 

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Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

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Continuing from Tom's post, the EPS weeklies are encouraging. How long has it been since we've had a September without a dumb heat wave in the middle to end of the month? We may not have one of those this year. Just near-normal.

 

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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AHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.........do I sense the September, cool breeze hitting SEMI and the chilly, bonfire evenings w lows in the 30s and 40s upon us. Man, that will feel awesome after a long, hot, dry Summer!!!!

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I see the possibility of some upper 40s making it down my way.  Can't wait for the transition to Winter to begin.

Looking at the 00z EPS, boy, its ushering down some "Canadian Chill" for the Labor Day holiday weekend!  Major blocking and amplification of the 500mb pattern.  I could see some spots up north getting into the upper 30's!

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I see the possibility of some upper 40s making it down my way.  Can't wait for the transition to Winter to begin.

Its that time of the year again, when leaves start changing colors, chilly breezes arrive, "Halloween" stuff start, the magic words starts showing up in forecasts..."Frost"......"Freeze"......"Snow" and eventually leaves falling off trees and I can go on and on and on and on. 

 

Btw: be on the lookout for "Laura" at some point. You stand a potential for a lotta rain from her. Unfortunately, it misses my area!

 

@OKwx2k4- Laura looks to slam your area potentially!

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Looking at the 00z EPS, boy, its ushering down some "Canadian Chill" for the Labor Day holiday weekend!  Major blocking and amplification of the 500mb pattern.  I could see some spots up north getting into the upper 30's!

I haven't had the heat that many have had, so I bet some relief will feel nice!  A little over a month away from a new pattern taking over and maybe what our first glimpse of what Winter may look like.

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Its that time of the year again, where leaves on trees start changing colors, chilly breezes arrive, "Halloween" stuff start, the magic words starts showing up in forecasts..."Frost"......"Freeze"......"Snow" and eventually leaves falling off trees and I can go on and on and on and on. 

 

Btw: be on the lookout for "Laura" at some point. You stand a potential for a lotta rain from her. Unfortunately, it misses my area!

 

@OKwx2k4- Laura looks to slam your area potentially!

As of now Laura looks to miss me just to the south but that could change.  I could use a drink of water.

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Its that time of the year again, when leaves start changing colors, chilly breezes arrive, "Halloween" stuff start, the magic words starts showing up in forecasts..."Frost"......"Freeze"......"Snow" and eventually leaves falling off trees and I can go on and on and on and on.

 

Btw: be on the lookout for "Laura" at some point. You stand a potential for a lotta rain from her. Unfortunately, it misses my area!

 

@OKwx2k4- Laura looks to slam your area potentially!

I like fall but it's a sad time for me once most of the leaves are off and everything looks barren for nearly half of the year! I always kinda dread winter, and fall is just a prelude. I guess I should start heading south every winter but I need to keep track of precipitation! lol

PS: Dry summers are not my favorite either.

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Last night's JMA weeklies continue to advertise a cool month ahead and trending cooler for Week 2 into Week 3-4.  I like the looks of an active W PAC that seemingly may come alive after a record low ACE thus far. 

 

Week 2...

 

Y202008.D2612_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...

 

Y202008.D2612_gl2.png

 

 

The W PAC comes alive Week 2 and really amps up beyond that period....

 

Y202008.D2612_gl0.png

 

 

 

Y202008.D2612_gl0.png

 

 

 

Looking at the 500mb pattern towards the end of the month, the ridge placements off both coasts of North America continue to be a theme.  Let's see if this holds because these blocks could be interesting semi permanent features going forward.  I see you Hudson Bay Vortex!

 

 

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The record Atlantic season so far has stolen the show. That PAC is going to kick off right at the proper time. Been a great weather year here so far.

 

My summer, for all intents and purposes, ends/ looks to end this coming weekend.

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Any early 2000s analogs ringing any bells to anyone lately? I haven't even jumped into the process yet but seeing some things that remind me of those years. Early light leaf yellowing being one of those signs.

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Any early 2000s analogs ringing any bells to anyone lately? I haven't even jumped into the process yet but seeing some things that remind me of those years. Early light leaf yellowing being one of those signs.

Lot of that going on up here too. I can't think of any winter from that time frame that was great up here other than the epic December 2000.
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As of now Laura looks to miss me just to the south but that could change.  I could use a drink of water.

Yep, my area as well, although, the good news is that now I am outta the "Abnormally Dry" color and placed on"Normal." Its been a hot, dry Summer.

 

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EPS keeps most of the sub cold through the extended. A bit warmer at the end of the run, but there's more cold air coming down from Canada then too.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Lot of that going on up here too. I can't think of any winter from that time frame that was great up here other than the epic December 2000.

 

I'd take an 00-01 in a heartbeat. Cold and snowy Dec and Feb with a Jan thaw. An 8-10" storm in Dec and Feb leaving extensive snow cover padded by other events. Of course no two winters are the same but if the pattern is there hopefully it can deliver. *Nebraskans glare at 2013-14*

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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I'd take an 00-01 in a heartbeat. Cold and snowy Dec and Feb with a Jan thaw. An 8-10" storm in Dec and Feb leaving extensive snow cover padded by other events. Of course no two winters are the same but if the pattern is there hopefully it can deliver. *Nebraskans glare at 2013-14*

I honestly don't remember the details of those early 2000s winters. I just know they weren't great overall, but I do remember Dec '00. Storm after storm!

13-14 rules over here but I know you guys were screwed badly. We need some bowling balls this winter.

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I honestly don't remember the details of those early 2000s winters. I just know they weren't great overall, but I do remember Dec '00. Storm after storm!

13-14 rules over here but I know you guys were screwed badly. We need some bowling balls this winter.

Winter of 2000-2001 was amazing here. My daughter was born in December of 2000 and many doctors appointments in the next few months were postponed by weather. I remember our school district had 7 snow days. We had to extend the school year 2 more days in May.

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00z EPS and recent op runs off the GFS in the extended, along with the CFSv2 are all advertising the seasons strongest and most potent CF right around Labor Day and thereafter.  This could really bring the "Autumn Chill" to parts of the central/eastern Sub.  

 

Again, the theme seems to revolve on a western US ridge and eastern CONUS  trough along with High Lat Blocking...the 30-day map is the recent Euro Weeklies run which doesn't show any sustained warmth, maybe at times in the high plains but generally speaking, it parks a long-term/long wave trough over the central and eastern CONUS.

 

 

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After digesting the Euro weeklies farther, for the most part, the teleconnections setting up argue for a wavy and amplified jet stream that will have no problem ushering in cool to cold air out of Canada.  -AO/-EPO/+PNA/-WPO....we haven't seen these readings all line up before since I believe the '13-'15 seasons.  You start to wonder if nature is setting up a long term long wave pattern up in the northern latitudes.  Speaking of this, using the BSR as guidance, nearly all of the LR models show an Aleutian trough/NE PAC ridge.  If this were to hold, we would take this as guidance and begin to paint a picture on how October will open.

 

Take a look at all these various models and come to your own conclusions...

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_64.png

 

gem-ens_z500a_npac_65.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_3.png

 

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To add farther to my post above, a powerful Bearing Sea/Aleutian Low will explode today through the weekend...extrapolate this period 17-21 days out, we could be seeing a monster trough across our Sub mid month.

 

 

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August is going to finish well below normal for rainfall here. How do rain prospects look for Iowa as we head into September? Some parts of Iowa are in an EXTREME drought, and I hope that the drought doesn't get any worse around here. 

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According to the 16 day 12z GFS, today will be the last day in the 90s here. Probably won't happen, but I'm simping over it right now. Unfortunately, I'm not super impressed with the rain chances early next week. It's on the downtrend and seems like something that can fall apart easily. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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According to the 16 day 12z GFS, today will be the last day in the 90s here. Probably won't happen, but I'm simping over it right now. Unfortunately, I'm not super impressed with the rain chances early next week. It's on the downtrend and seems like something that can fall apart easily. 

Don't forget about the yearly late September heat wave!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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I mean, these maps speak for itself...just classic high lat blocking along with monster ridges off both N. A. coasts....please repeat in the Winter...just remember how warm the Euro Seasonal was for the month of September on its July run.  Maybe I can pull up an old map and compare to where the model is going now.  IMO, the seasonal run will correct even more on its run next week.

 

 

 

 

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The Euro continues to show four strong fronts moving through the region over the next ten days, but they are all quite dry.  All the moisture gets intercepted well to the south.

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro continues to show four strong fronts moving through the region over the next ten days, but they are all quite dry. All the moisture gets intercepted well to the south.

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

Where's this pattern in winter? Don't need 4 inches of rain. Sounds like you guys do.

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....and just like that, I have 2 warm days left. It is so amazing how much modeling just goes back to normal after a hurricane.

 

September looks to have a solid temperature departure incoming.

 

It truly, after looking at the opening to September, still looks like it will be the most "classic" autumn in many years.

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Models have thrown a cool, light rain system into our forecast for Tuesday.  It won't be a lot of rain, but some with temps only in the 60s.  At the end of last night's Euro it has a very strong front sweeping through bringing chilly fall air (dews in the 20s and 30s surging into the region).

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Heading into September the current Grand Rapids mean average at Grand Rapids is 62.8°  The warmest mean for any September at GR is 69.0 in 1931. The hottest day is 98 on September 2nd 1913.  Highs in the 90’s are not uncommon as 49 years have seen a high of 90 or better in September and on average there is at least one day of 90 or better. The most was 7 in 1931. In 2017 there were 6. In only 2 years has it not reached at  least 80. The coldest mean is 56.2 in 1918 the record low is 27 on September 28, 1991. It has fallen below 30 in 7 Septembers and it has gotten down to 32 or lower on 17 more Septembers. On average Grand Rapids receives 4.28” of rain fall. The wettest was 11.85” in 1986 and in 1979 just a trace of rain fell for the driest.

Looking ahead for the meteorological autumn season(September thru November) the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.3° the warmest was a mild 57.5 in 1931 and the coolest was 45.8 in 1976. The average precipitation is 11.05” the wettest is 17.68 in 1988 the driest 2.59” in 1956. On average Grand Rapids receives 7.3” of snow fall in the fall. The most snow fall is 31.0” in 2014 and the least is a trace last recorded in 1984.

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Heading into September the current Grand Rapids mean average at Grand Rapids is 62.8°  The warmest mean for any September at GR is 69.0 in 1931. The hottest day is 98 on September 2nd 1913.  Highs in the 90’s are not uncommon as 49 years have seen a high of 90 or better in September and on average there is at least one day of 90 or better. The most was 7 in 1931. In 2017 there were 6. In only 2 years has it not reached at  least 80. The coldest mean is 56.2 in 1918 the record low is 27 on September 28, 1991. It has fallen below 30 in 7 Septembers and it has gotten down to 32 or lower on 17 more Septembers. On average Grand Rapids receives 4.28” of rain fall. The wettest was 11.85” in 1986 and in 1979 just a trace of rain fell for the driest.

Looking ahead for the autumn season the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.3° the warmest was a mild 57.5 in 1931 and the coolest was 45.8 in 1976. The average precipitation is 11.05” the wettest is 17.68 in 1988 the driest 2.59” in 1956. On average Grand Rapids receives 7.3” of snow fall in the fall. The most snow fall is 31.0” in 2014 and the least is a trace last recorded in 1984.

That's a lot of snow for September...woah!  Did that fall at the end of the month??

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That's a lot of snow for September...woah!  Did that fall at the end of the month??

No that is not for September that is for the meteorological fall season of September, October and November. Most of that snow fell in November. Maybe I should of made that more clearer. I updated the post.

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Heading into September the current Grand Rapids mean average at Grand Rapids is 62.8° The warmest mean for any September at GR is 69.0 in 1931. The hottest day is 98 on September 2nd 1913. Highs in the 90’s are not uncommon as 49 years have seen a high of 90 or better in September and on average there is at least one day of 90 or better. The most was 7 in 1931. In 2017 there were 6. In only 2 years has it not reached at least 80. The coldest mean is 56.2 in 1918 the record low is 27 on September 28, 1991. It has fallen below 30 in 7 Septembers and it has gotten down to 32 or lower on 17 more Septembers. On average Grand Rapids receives 4.28” of rain fall. The wettest was 11.85” in 1986 and in 1979 just a trace of rain fell for the driest.

Looking ahead for the meteorological autumn season(September thru November) the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.3° the warmest was a mild 57.5 in 1931 and the coolest was 45.8 in 1976. The average precipitation is 11.05” the wettest is 17.68 in 1988 the driest 2.59” in 1956. On average Grand Rapids receives 7.3” of snow fall in the fall. The most snow fall is 31.0” in 2014 and the least is a trace last recorded in 1984.

Yay! Its autumn stats time!

I'm always glad you list stats and events. It helps my recall skill a lot and it reminds me autumn is coming.

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Models have thrown a cool, light rain system into our forecast for Tuesday. It won't be a lot of rain, but some with temps only in the 60s. At the end of last night's Euro it has a very strong front sweeping through bringing chilly fall air (dews in the 20s and 30s surging into the region).

Hopefully it waits to rain till Tuesday, as it would just as well be my driest July/August period and break my own record with the 1.66” this year.

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Heading into September the current Grand Rapids mean average at Grand Rapids is 62.8° The warmest mean for any September at GR is 69.0 in 1931. The hottest day is 98 on September 2nd 1913. Highs in the 90’s are not uncommon as 49 years have seen a high of 90 or better in September and on average there is at least one day of 90 or better. The most was 7 in 1931. In 2017 there were 6. In only 2 years has it not reached at least 80. The coldest mean is 56.2 in 1918 the record low is 27 on September 28, 1991. It has fallen below 30 in 7 Septembers and it has gotten down to 32 or lower on 17 more Septembers. On average Grand Rapids receives 4.28” of rain fall. The wettest was 11.85” in 1986 and in 1979 just a trace of rain fell for the driest.

Looking ahead for the meteorological autumn season(September thru November) the mean at Grand Rapids is 51.3° the warmest was a mild 57.5 in 1931 and the coolest was 45.8 in 1976. The average precipitation is 11.05” the (WETTEST IS 17.68 IN 1988) the driest 2.59” in 1956. On average Grand Rapids receives 7.3” of snow fall in the fall. The most snow fall is 31.0” in 2014 and the least is a trace last recorded in 1984.

Wow, 1988 was the wettest fall season!? That followed the historic Midwestern summer heat/drought of that year, but maybe it wasn’t really that dry or hot in GR. that summer like it was in Iowa!
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Can you spot the CF??? The Euro is advertising a very strong Autumnal CF to sweep across the board next Sunday....that's about as dramatic of a temp contrast as you get in the Autumn!  90's followed by 60's just a few miles away....pretty wild stuff right there...some chilly nights are in the forecast for Labor Day!  The smell of bon fires will be prevalent for those who will be enjoying the outdoors.

 

 

There is overwhelming model support for a major shot of "Autumnal Chill" lead by pretty much all the modeling as we head into the first full week of Sept.

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Can you spot the CF??? The Euro is advertising a very strong Autumnal CF to sweep across the board next Sunday....that's about as dramatic of a temp contrast as you get in the Autumn! 90's followed by 60's just a few miles away....pretty wild stuff right there...some chilly nights are in the forecast for Labor Day! The smell of bon fires will be prevalent for those who will be enjoying the outdoors.

 

 

There is overwhelming model support for a major shot of "Autumnal Chill" lead by pretty much all the modeling as we head into the first full week of Sept.

Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.

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EPS weeklies are warm for the Western half of the sub after mid-September as the ridge tries to fight its way back East. Not a major fan of the long-term pattern here.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Can you spot the CF??? The Euro is advertising a very strong Autumnal CF to sweep across the board next Sunday....that's about as dramatic of a temp contrast as you get in the Autumn! 90's followed by 60's just a few miles away....pretty wild stuff right there...some chilly nights are in the forecast for Labor Day! The smell of bon fires will be prevalent for those who will be enjoying the outdoors.

 

 

There is overwhelming model support for a major shot of "Autumnal Chill" lead by pretty much all the modeling as we head into the first full week of Sept.

That's impressive. Can't wait although I'm not liking the 80s and 90s out ahead of it. Really wanna be done with that.
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Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.

Early Frosts coming this year instead of waiting till mid October or even late Oct/early Nov for some of us in recent years.

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Early Frosts coming this year instead of waiting till mid October or even late Oct/early Nov for some of us in recent years.

I've got leaves yellowing and falling off, too. After this 4 inch rain and 10 days of cool weather, autumn will be locked.

 

This is going to feel to some like the longest autumn in history. For some here especially, shortest summer in 19 years is a fact. Not even the years of 2000, 2009-2011. 2007, or any of them in my memory will have just ended so cold and sharp. Maybe going back to 1995 or some of the other 90s years. I know one year in early 1990s, I nearly froze to death trick or treating and maybe Sept-October 1987, but I'm lost on this one. I think if it sticks, this will be an unprecedented start to autumn.

 

Unanimous cold in all modeling is crazy.

 

September 2015 maybe before Nino influences took over, I remember a layer cold enough above ground to produce sleet at 42 degrees, but this is looking whacky and the models are always too warm at 12 day leads.

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Strange to think I saw my last flakes in May. Seems so long ago.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Last flakes here was also the biggest snow of the season in mid April! That was still when I lived near Capitol Beach in west Lincoln. Being near Alvo in north Lincoln now, its a lot more open. Even if there's no true blizzard this winter, it will make blowing snow episodes a lot more interesting. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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Ummm.... lock it down and get ready for fall is all I can say. Going to be insane cold for September.

Yes lets have the chill in September, then by December we can maybe go back above normal when colder than average sucks in Iowa. That would suit me just fine.

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Yes lets have the chill in September, then by December we can maybe go back above normal when colder than a average sucks in Iowa. That would suit me just fine.

I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy December

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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I would rather bake my a** off in September if it meant a cold and snowy December

Thing is I’ld rather skip winter altogether and just have extended fall or springlike wx. Actually OKwx2k4’s type of winter climate would suit me just fine, but maybe not his summers. Eastern Ok. normally really doesn’t have much of what Iowans would consider as winter.

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While not necessarily a textbook "Blue Norther", it certainly is showing some characteristics of this type of event and will definitely provide the temp drop across the Great Plains/MW.  00z EPS driving a significant push of "Autumnal Air" straight down out of Canada south into Texas post Labor Day.

 

If you look at the big picture, this pattern resembles very closely to how the LRC developed last October driving CF's deep into the South in the Autumn but then disappeared in the Winter.  Gotta keep that in mind going forward into the cold season.

 

Meanwhile, the model did come in wetter later next week as this aforementioned trough pushes through the Sub and likely sparking some much needed rainfall for those who have been dry.

14-km EPS Global United States 2-m Temperature Anom.gif

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