Jump to content
The Weather Forums

September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

In other news, the Beat goes on here in the desert SW as we begin another Heat Wave that should last through the Labor Day weekend.  PHX should set another record high today of 113F (old record 112F), tie a record of 112F tomorrow and maybe set another record for Monday.  We may also set a record for the HOTTEST Labor Day weekend ever.  If that's not enough, we also keep tacking on the number of Excessive Heat Warnings issued for the valley and 110F+ days which will be around 55 days or so by the end of this HOT stretch of weather.  

 

Any-who, I'm excited to be coming back home next week and enjoy some crisp cool autumn air...its going to take a few days to get used to those temps.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 636
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Found out last night that an old friend from college passed away yesterday from COVID. Only 40 years old and no other health issues. Unfortunately, he made the decision to go to the Sturgis bike rally

Just looked outside and every roof, car, etc is covered in a thick layer of frost.

Posted Images

Looks like Monday will only be in the 70's here instead of the 80's that had been forecasted.  Monday night through Tuesday night give us the best chance of precipitation in a long time.  With this drought, you just don't know how things will play out.  I guess until the pattern changes, I would lean towards less rainfall than is being predicted.  Highs for Tuesday keep being lowered, now mid 40's with a north wind and rain.  It will be a raw day.  Our temps may drop over 60 degrees from highs of 102 on Sunday to 40 by evening on Tuesday.  

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple days ago it looked like the Saturday night storms would fire in nw Iowa.  Now the NAM has them firing in central MN.  The 3k NAM, however, dives a line down through eastern Iowa by Sunday morning, in decay mode, which would at least drop something here.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

12z Euro... and we don't even get anything this weekend.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the cooldown coming next week will be significant w highs in the (50s north of my area) and 60s elsewhere and lows in the 40s and a few upper 30s in the far NW burbs. This will be a true shocker to the system, after experiencing a hot, dry Summer.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

This would be amazing.  If only this could happen during the winter and give us a multi day monster snow storm. 

 

 

12z Euro... and we don't even get anything this weekend.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall 23.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

DVNs AFD makes no sense whatsoever.  Claims the Euro is showing "much lighter" rainfall.  I guess widespread 4-6" is light.  

 

 

The ECMWF and CMC global solutions also generate a fair amount of
rain but the rainfall amounts much lighter across the area and there
are periods of dry weather.

  • Like 1

Season Snowfall 23.2"

Link to post
Share on other sites

This would be amazing.  If only this could happen during the winter and give us a multi day monster snow storm.

 

Probably couldn’t happen around here since colder air can’t hold near as much water vapor, which I understand you all know.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Excited for the (maybe) rain, more impressive is the cold. Record low max for Sept 8 in Lincoln is 64. OAX is forecasting 56. The GFS is colder and also earlier with the front, 51 at midnight and a wet 43-44 in the afternoon hours. It's going to go from feeling like July to November in 2 days. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the part of the year where things get difficult to follow, but it appears to me that the MJO and tropics/mid-lat variance are pretty much driving the bus in this cold event.

 

Only other option is the feedback from the SST contrast in the PAC. Been many years since we've experienced anything but warm over warm over warm.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro has a brief mix in the TX panhandle on Wednesday morning.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

PHX broke another record yesterday topping out at 114F (112F old record) and likely will come close to tying the 113F record today, the 111F record for tomorrow and finally, the 111F record for Monday....sounds like a broken record...bc it has been!!!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 1st significant autumn storm system of the season is poised to leave its mark across the majority of our Sub later next week.  Much needed widespread heavy rain is in the forecast for the MW/GL's region.  Spread the wealth???  From Snow in the Rockies, to severe wx and heavy rains and very cool/chilly temps...signs of autumn are finally here.  I noticed the Euro is kicking out the trough quicker and not holding back like it has been for days.  Wherever this cold core ULL tracks, I could see record low high temps across parts of NE/KS/IA next week.

 

00z EPS is trending wetter and more widespread with precip....

 

 

1.png

2.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 1st significant autumn storm system of the season is poised to leave its mark across the majority of our Sub later next week. Much needed widespread heavy rain is in the forecast for the MW/GL's region. Spread the wealth??? From Snow in the Rockies, to severe wx and heavy rains and very cool/chilly temps...signs of autumn are finally here. I noticed the Euro is kicking out the trough quicker and not holding back like it has been for days. Wherever this cold core ULL tracks, I could see record low high temps across parts of NE/KS/IA next week.

 

00z EPS is trending wetter and more widespread with precip....

That looks like a mid-January precip map.

  • Like 1

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

@FAR_Weather I'll be in your town tonight! Spending the night in Fargo to visit my girlfriend's family.

Aw yeah! Hope you enjoy your night here.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Next week does not get as chilly as once thought here imby. It cools down, but not too extreme. We will see.

 

Key note: Lotta rain next week y'all for a lot of peeps on here. Mby is expected to receive a couple of " of water between Tues - Th timeframe.

 

In conclusion, LBW looks a little wet here. Some storms in between Sat-Mon.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely is gonna feel like Summer before the front. Thankfully the peak pre-frontal air will be at night so I won't have to deal with 90s or anything. I might flirt with 80 today, though. Currently 60/52*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Per the strong system early week - Denver is forecasted to have a high of 100F on Sunday the 9/6 - which would be  the latest 100F recorded for Denver. Tuesday 9/8- the forecasted high is 37F- the earliest sub 40F high recorded. Same thing looks to be felt across the Plains except not as drastic.

  • Like 5

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I went on a walk pre-sunrise as daylight was emerging and the sun tucked behind the mountain side and the temp was 86F.  Since then, about 2:30 hours ago, the temps have shot up to 101F just after 9:00 am!  I'd say we will probably set another record today.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not optimistic about Cedar Rapids/Iowa City getting much tonight.  Most models keep the storms northeast.  Dubuque appears to be in a good spot.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Cloudy and 75 here. Wow the forecast for the weekend and next week went from cool to hot and now back to cool.   It seems that the last few weeks that there has not been much constancy in the forecast. I wonder it that the issue is with that?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Attm, its 71F under mostly cloudy skies. Dew is not a factor today. Liking the forecast for next week as the potential stands high for some significant rainfall in my area. :D

Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely more warm out there. May actually have to fire up the AC one last time tonight as we'll struggle to get below 60 before the front passes. 77/49/78*F.

 

We're not even going to get close to 60 Monday, and Tuesday we'll struggle to even get out of the lower 50s. A brief scrape of 32 is not out of the question Tuesday night...

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The euro has widespread 6-9 inch rainfall amounts over the next week! I sure hope this happens, it's been way too dry around here, and this rainfall would be great.

 

That's an amazing map! Haven't seen a map from the Euro with 6" - 9"> of QPF around here in a long time.
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 3k NAM shifted tonight's MCS activity quite a bit sw, easily hitting the Waterloo/CR/IC area.  Most models are still farther northeast, though.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Short but sweet.

 

Detailed Forecast
Tonight
Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. East southeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Windy, with a south wind 11 to 16 mph becoming northwest 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 19 to 29 mph decreasing to 9 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph.
Labor Day
Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Tuesday Night
Areas of frost after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 34. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest after midnight.
Wednesday
Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 60. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. South southwest wind around 8 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 68. South southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44. South wind around 7 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 7 to 14 mph.
Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 48. South wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 74. South southwest wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.

 

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 3k NAM shifted tonight's MCS activity quite a bit sw, easily hitting the Waterloo/CR/IC area.  Most models are still farther northeast, though.

 

The latest HRRR just shifted sw as well, so maybe there is something to this.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Dropping into the 40s tanite under a crystal clear evening. Setting up a bonfire soon as I am having some good friends over and planning on grilling some fresh fish and side salad w red wine.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 00z 3k NAM is dropping tonight's line south through central and eastern Iowa.  The HRRR has inched back northeast a bit, keeping the storms just ne of CR/IC.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_8.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 3k NAM shifted tonight's MCS activity quite a bit sw, easily hitting the Waterloo/CR/IC area.  Most

models are still farther northeast, though.

Yes I noticed that too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If the storms in sw MN are the main show, that is farther sw than most models had them popping.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Man the HRW CAMs shifted southwest too. I think the storms will move more se. or be further south per the NWS svr. watch. DMX was saying for a couple days already that the Corfidi vectors are more se. so we’ll find out soon.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...