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Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out


Niko

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39 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Time for me to live up to my username. People in charge of AV say they are aiming for a mid november opening, and here's the weekly. This is so weird, usually when I buy a new snowboard or something I completely Murphy's Law the winter and it looks like things might be ok.

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_3.png

LOL, I know what you mean

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Both the CFSv2 and JMA Seasonal agree on the overall 500mb pattern for N.A. during the month of NOV...Hello Greenland Block!

 

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From a "going by memory" standpoint of at least 4 decades worth of autumns, this one most definitely has "the feel" of an early onset of winter. Could be some real action in Nov if we can get some moist systems finally.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If this October is any early indication of what remains to be seen come the start of met Winter, then maybe Accuweather is on the right track in terms of DEC temps over the southern U.S.  IMHO, this does fit my early thoughts on how DEC will play out but I would like to see more cold over the PAC NW/N Rockies as I think the arctic air will bottle up over W NAMER and bleed south in DEC.  There's good indication that the developing Long Term Long Wave Ridge over E Canada/Greenland will continue and allow for early season cold to head south into the Lower 48.

 

Last DEC temps...

Dec21TDeptUS.png

 

Accuweather's thoughts....

Screen Shot 2022-10-20 at 4.16.08 AM.png

 

 

The JMA seasonal...this model has been steadfast on the expansive ridging in NE Canda/Greenland, however, its seeing a strong trough pounding the NW PAC.  This is a valid solution so something to bear in mind as we see the winter season begin

5.png

 

 

DEC Temps...depending on how the LRC evolves the next few weeks, I would imagine that we see some warmth early on in DEC and then a complete flip by Mid/Late DEC.  I'm really excited about having a good holiday season but as always, not everyone will benefit across our Sub.  Let's see where the models take us into next month and how the new pattern continues to evolve.

 

image.png

 

 

DEC precip...very active West Coast and central/northern U.S...

Screen Shot 2022-10-20 at 5.43.41 AM.png

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

If this October is any early indication of what remains to be seen come the start of met Winter, then maybe Accuweather is on the right track in terms of DEC temps over the southern U.S.  IMHO, this does fit my early thoughts on how DEC will play out but I would like to see more cold over the PAC NW/N Rockies as I think the arctic air will bottle up over W NAMER and bleed south in DEC.  There's good indication that the developing Long Term Long Wave Ridge over E Canada/Greenland will continue and allow for early season cold to head south into the Lower 48.

 

Last DEC temps...

Dec21TDeptUS.png

 

Accuweather's thoughts....

Screen Shot 2022-10-20 at 4.16.08 AM.png

 

 

The JMA seasonal...this model has been steadfast on the expansive ridging in NE Canda/Greenland, however, its seeing a strong trough pounding the NW PAC.  This is a valid solution so something to bear in mind as we see the winter season begin

5.png

 

 

DEC Temps...depending on how the LRC evolves the next few weeks, I would imagine that we see some warmth early on in DEC and then a complete flip by Mid/Late DEC.  I'm really excited about having a good holiday season but as always, not everyone will benefit across our Sub.  Let's see where the models take us into next month and how the new pattern continues to evolve.

 

image.png

 

 

DEC precip...very active West Coast and central/northern U.S...

Screen Shot 2022-10-20 at 5.43.41 AM.png

I think the EPS was also showing the GOA ridge position in a good place for us in the late November to early December timeframe. Maybe the PNW will see something good then

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12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think the EPS was also showing the GOA ridge position in a good place for us in the late November to early December timeframe. Maybe the PNW will see something good then

Ya, I like where you sit in the PAC NW...early start for your Winter for sure...

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12 hours ago, tStacsh said:

We haven't had a real winter in 7 years in SMI.  Signs are pointing at a decent winter this year.  Hope it comes true for once.  Stormier pattern the last few weeks.  Needs to continue through December at least.  

You'd have to qualify that statement a bit. If I go strictly by total snowfall, 5 of 6 winters from 13-14 onward were AN down along 94 (the most S of SMI), including some epic CAT-4 storms and the all-time worst winter on record. I realize GR was sidelined for much of that, but not like zero winter was had across all of SMI. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

You'd have to qualify that statement a bit. If I go strictly by total snowfall, 5 of 6 winters from 13-14 onward were AN down along 94 (the most S of SMI), including some epic CAT-4 storms and the all-time worst winter on record. I realize GR was sidelined for much of that, but not like zero winter was had across all of SMI. 

I guess for GR.  I got used to the consistent cold and LES.  It's been virtually non-existent in my area.  Missed most bigger snowstorms to the south or north.   I have a feeling there will be a lot more moisture and some good LES events this year with a wetter pattern and more westerly flows from the arctic/canadian air masses.   

I used my snowblower twice last year.   

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I guess for GR.  I got used to the consistent cold and LES.  It's been virtually non-existent in my area.  Missed most bigger snowstorms to the south or north.   I have a feeling there will be a lot more moisture and some good LES events this year with a wetter pattern and more westerly flows from the arctic/canadian air masses.   

I used my snowblower twice last year.   

Yeah, LES lately has been hugging the shoreline on NNW or N fetch. I agree on expecting better LES conditions and more favorable wind direction. Analogs don't mean what they used to, but there are some seriously good ones in the two previous triple-Ninas, including 75-76 which was a monster LES season.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DTX says that for all (28) NINA's on record, a full 79% had normal to above normal precip. Only 1 in 5 were BN. Very favorable odds for sure. On the temperature side, there's an even split so we average "normal" fwiw. My recollection is that we will typically experience a 1 or 2 month period of cold-n-snowy conditions ala Dec '00 or Jan '99. For SEMI (and most of SMI really), the NINA's success comes down to whether we get enough cold, and more importantly the timing of the cold (see 07-08 for benchmark ex.). Last winter's cold timing was almost as horrid as it gets with mega torching leading right up until "show time", so I don't expect a worse outcome in that dept.

image.thumb.png.647e642ed7247e33f2e9719189249726.png

image.thumb.png.c589ed17341ac3db0e67c986bcc924c4.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Have to add this intriguing graphic on temps. Interesting for a couple reasons. Showing how the last two seasons were slightly AN here in SEMI which never helps the snowfall outcome. However, also several memorable NINA's were far warmer over-all, which hits my point that it's more about the timing of the cold wrt favorable snow amounts. Only seeing two complete FAILS where warmth ruled/ruined the season: 49-50 & 11-12. Expecting a MOD NINA, and that seems to be highly favorable to a colder regime. 

319409908_DTX22-10-20NinaTemps.thumb.PNG.3b10e47fb397e29f4f20f3ccfef9b62b.PNG  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Have to add this intriguing graphic on temps. Interesting for a couple reasons. Showing how the last two seasons were slightly AN here in SEMI which never helps the snowfall outcome. However, also several memorable NINA's were far warmer over-all, which hits my point that it's more about the timing of the cold wrt favorable snow amounts. Only seeing two complete FAILS where warmth ruled/ruined the season: 49-50 & 11-12. Expecting a MOD NINA, and that seems to be highly favorable to a colder regime. 

319409908_DTX22-10-20NinaTemps.thumb.PNG.3b10e47fb397e29f4f20f3ccfef9b62b.PNG  

You're absolutely correct. Bad timing/temp variance can make a winter with "good numbers" garbage in totality.

Last year had good snow total, but timing/snowcover was horrible.

I sort of consider 2010-11 to be a strong Niña because of the whole of nearly the entire Pacific being cold. 

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Trying to look ahead to November and it's giving me a headache.  Gotta say I'm not sure which direction it will go but I'm going to lean with more of a phase 7 look.  The MJO is all over the place in the extended but the EPO, WPO, along with the NAO look to go negative as we move into November.  A trough digging into the west that @hawkstwelveshowed earlier should keep storm chances alive for many of us.

The GFS

GEFS.png

The Euro

ECMF.png

The JMA (best of the bunch)

ECMF.png

The BOMM ext

BOMM.png

1666396800-ahQkFjhtRrYgrb2.png

1666396800-p4jXOHU4Cpkgrb2.png

1666396800-S9QA2L5eE1Ygrb2.png

1666396800-dNzncJCH8UYgrb2.png

combined_image.png

Screen_Shot_2022_10_22_at_7_56_44_AM.png

 

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On 10/18/2022 at 11:43 AM, someweatherdude said:

When I was a kid, I moved from Texas to Iowa, much to my dismay (no offense to Iowa, I just liked my life the way it was).  I was very angry, but the one thing I was looking forward to was snow.  That year, Des Moines got 19 inches, barely 50% of normal. We moved away before the next winter. 

 In college, I again moved from Texas.  This time to Minnesota.  That year, the Twin Cities got 29 inches, or about 25 inches below normal.  It was the least snowy winter in 10 years. 

The first year I lived in KC, we had the least snowy winter on record -- 3.9 inches.  If you like snow, and I move to your town, you're screwed. 

Oh well, Texans often have that affect on places.  Hope you get your snow now.  If not, plan a ski trip to Colorado! 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The latest JMA weeklies are lining up for what will be a warm open to NOV and the continuation of delightful Indian Summer wx for many on here (except for maybe those up north).  Why not?  AN temps this time of year are enjoyable and will allow you to winterizing your home and finish up some yard work.  I'll prob plan on coming back home during this period so I'm sorta hoping this warm spell has some legs into the 1st couple weeks.

Week 2...

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image.png

 

Week 3-4...Here is when the + changes could start to occur for Ol' Man Winter to return for our Sub...I like the LR signal for the Hudson Bay/Greenland Ridge to hook over into the Scandinavian/Urals Region.  Judah Cohen suggests that this is a blocking pattern that is conducive to weaken the PV.  Not only so, but it will likely begin to seed cold into the Eastern CONUS for the later half of NOV if this pressure pattern does in fact come to fruition.  Perfect timing for the start of the Holiday season?  I think so.

 

3.png

 

 

 

image.png

 

Finally, I'l end this post with the current state of the SST's and the biggest clue I see is the continuation of very warm waters hugging the west coastline of N.A.  The NE PAC is on fire and carried over into the N PAC.  The cool pool NW of Hawaii is another good LR signal for a colder winter for the U.S.  There have been documented research papers written about this particular warm/cold SST alignment in the N & NE PAC ocean.  I'm excited to see that there hasn't been any drastic shifts in the warm/cold pools over the past 4 weeks.  Good signs for us winter wx enthusiasts.

Screen Shot 2022-10-27 at 6.06.50 AM.png

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

The latest JMA weeklies are lining up for what will be a warm open to NOV and the continuation of delightful Indian Summer wx for many on here (except for maybe those up north).  Why not?  AN temps this time of year are enjoyable and will allow you to winterizing your home and finish up some yard work.  I'll prob plan on coming back home during this period so I'm sorta hoping this warm spell has some legs into the 1st couple weeks.

Week 2...

2.png

image.png

 

Week 3-4...Here is when the + changes could start to occur for Ol' Man Winter to return for our Sub...I like the LR signal for the Hudson Bay/Greenland Ridge to hook over into the Scandinavian/Urals Region.  Judah Cohen suggests that this is a blocking pattern that is conducive to weaken the PV.  Not only so, but it will likely begin to seed cold into the Eastern CONUS for the later half of NOV if this pressure pattern does in fact come to fruition.  Perfect timing for the start of the Holiday season?  I think so.

 

3.png

 

 

 

image.png

 

Finally, I'l end this post with the current state of the SST's and the biggest clue I see is the continuation of very warm waters hugging the west coastline of N.A.  The NE PAC is on fire and carried over into the N PAC.  The cool pool NW of Hawaii is another good LR signal for a colder winter for the U.S.  There have been documented research papers written about this particular warm/cold SST alignment in the N & NE PAC ocean.  I'm excited to see that there hasn't been any drastic shifts in the warm/cold pools over the past 4 weeks.  Good signs for us winter wx enthusiasts.

Screen Shot 2022-10-27 at 6.06.50 AM.png

I think we might see the Euro flip to a cold look by week 2 and maybe even sooner.  The Euro has been wanting to pull the MJO back into phase 6 in the long range and that just isn't happening.  The much superior JMA takes it right into 7 and is more progressive.  The Extended is showing the EPO going negative around the 5th and the JMA goes to phase 7 around the 3rd.  That storm at the end of todays 12z run could be the start of some exciting Winter weather.  For some fun I looked at the Control run and what a week it has to open Dec,

1670025600-ePOqsutIZxk.png

1670803200-3iib9odVZWI.png

1670803200-vq5bocoAnog.png

 

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The string of great fall weather continues as yesterday was yet another great day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 64/32 with no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 34 it is now up to 36 and that 36 looks to be the official overnight low at GRR. For today the average H/L is 55/38 the record high of 79 was recorded in 1950 and the record low of 18 was set in 1988. The record snow fall for today is 1.5” set in 1923. Last year the H/L was 54/44.

 

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@westMJim

/\ wrong thread??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go!  (and I like it - hello OKwx!)

Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go!  (and I like it - hello OKwx!)

Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again.

 

I sure like what he has to say!

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go!  (and I like it - hello OKwx!)

Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again.

 

Has my vote! 😁

@jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? 

I think this is our year, my friend.

Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). 

I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it.

He spoke to my caveats very well. 

Great video.

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14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Has my vote! 😁

@jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? 

I think this is our year, my friend.

Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). 

I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it.

He spoke to my caveats very well. 

Great video.

Dude's pretty entertaining as well. Less mundane delivery than the typical seasonal outlook vid. That alone makes it a fun watch. But to your point(s), perhaps then Nature has some balancing that is overdue for your region and wants/needs to get busy doing just that. Idk but I'm drawn to 10-11 as an example that seems to fit here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Has my vote! 😁

@jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? 

I think this is our year, my friend.

Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). 

I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it.

He spoke to my caveats very well. 

Great video.

It was a great vid - about to watch it again actually. Don't forget, we had Octo-bomb back in 2010 as a pre-cursor to GHD-1. Will we see something strong come out of all this crashing arctic air? 

@Tom

Remember all those winters when the bulk of the cold air was on the other side of the N Hemi? It seems like this year the cold wants to play on our side for a nice change. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It was a great vid - about to watch it again actually. Don't forget, we had Octo-bomb back in 2010 as a pre-cursor to GHD-1. Will we see something strong come out of all this crashing arctic air? 

@Tom

Remember all those winters when the bulk of the cold air was on the other side of the N Hemi? It seems like this year the cold wants to play on our side for a nice change. 

Siberia and Russia are always frigid this time of year but to develop the type of cold air being advertised in North America is always a very good sign.  #homebrewed

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12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Siberia and Russia are always frigid this time of year but to develop the type of cold air being advertised in North America is always a very good sign.  #homebrewed

True dat. The trick is getting the cold to come our way. Did you catch the part in the video where he stated that the current PV is the coldest on record? Are you familiar with exactly how/where they take measurements? Also, do you have updates on snowcover progress in Canada or Siberia for that matter now that Oct is ending. I know you used to always track that and post Dr. Cohen's analysis on the topic.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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BAMWx has their Full Winter forecast today and I'm curious to see what hey have to say.  They are pretty good and have done well over the years.   I gotta tell ya, they are pretty excited about this year's potential for the MW where Winter's have been lacking.  Here's a preview...

1.jpeg

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

BAMWx has their Full Winter forecast today and I'm curious to see what hey have to say.  They are pretty good and have done well over the years.   I gotta tell ya, they are pretty excited about this year's potential for the MW where Winter's have been lacking.  Here's a preview...

1.jpeg

Appears as though they think it will be a northern stream only winter.

Id say actual real observations of the beginning pattern have already disproved that. 

They're not seeing massive blocking in the NE US either, from that map.

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BAM! me 😁

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ETA for Alpine Valley opening, November 18th, one of the earliest starts to the season. Some good looking, cold nights in the accuweather extended forecast. Here's hoping, a couple nights in the teens is enough to make some serious snow. Looks like I might get away with a little over a week between jet ski and snowboard season this year. I noticed it seems like the less time between my hobbies, the better winter is. Here's hoping, I'm so ready.

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Both Joe D'Aleo and Terry Swails have written about the impacts of a warm MDR zone combined with a cooler MDR zone in the tropics and paired with a La Nina and how that translates to cold in the north central US.

0d40d5_a8e08638d6a342fbb826101b348a317b~mv2.png

Here is a link to Swails blog very good read this morning.  https://www.tswails.com/single-post/riders-on-the-storm

Here are some of Joe D'Aleo thoughts.

The less active hurricane season meant less cooling of the ocean waters north of the MDR.

Screen_Shot_2022_11_04_at_9_37_21_AM.png

That when a La Nina is occurring correlates with the following temperature pattern in winter for NAM which fits our analogs and statistical models:

Screen_Shot_2022_11_04_at_9_37_47_AM.png

That should translate to more snows across the northwest, north central, Great Lakes and Northeast (best bet Appalachians west but with a chance to the coastal northeast and Mid Atlantic). Boston for the 12 years shown had above normal in 7 of 11 years. 4 years were modestly below. The average of the 11 years was 41.4 inches but 5 years were over 50 inches (highest 60 inches in 2010/11).

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Both Joe D'Aleo and Terry Swails have written about the impacts of a warm MDR zone combined with a cooler MDR zone in the tropics and paired with a La Nina and how that translates to cold in the north central US.

0d40d5_a8e08638d6a342fbb826101b348a317b~mv2.png

Here is a link to Swails blog very good read this morning.  https://www.tswails.com/single-post/riders-on-the-storm

Here are some of Joe D'Aleo thoughts.

The less active hurricane season meant less cooling of the ocean waters north of the MDR.

Screen_Shot_2022_11_04_at_9_37_21_AM.png

That when a La Nina is occurring correlates with the following temperature pattern in winter for NAM which fits our analogs and statistical models:

Screen_Shot_2022_11_04_at_9_37_47_AM.png

That should translate to more snows across the northwest, north central, Great Lakes and Northeast (best bet Appalachians west but with a chance to the coastal northeast and Mid Atlantic). Boston for the 12 years shown had above normal in 7 of 11 years. 4 years were modestly below. The average of the 11 years was 41.4 inches but 5 years were over 50 inches (highest 60 inches in 2010/11).

The ORD Met who posts elsewhere a bit (mostly in the winter) said that he's cautiously optimistic that we will have a more work-able cold season. He cited numerous warm Novembers that were driven by a very +EPO. Those winters almost always went on to be warm duds. But our warmth now is -PNA driven which keeps the door open for a reversal as we get further down the road into actual cold months. It's not an ideal starting place (the flip was mid-Oct in 2013 and stuck for instance), but he's not totally down on the situation. He mentions the dominate HP over Alaska as another good trend/sign. I think this is pretty much what Tom, you, OKwx, etc have also been seeing in your LR disco's on the upcoming winter.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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In Swail's blog post he shows the EPO going NEGATIVE bringing the cold down and east. Interesting the JB's update this evening he's also reminding listeners of his call for an active finish to the tropical season. Noting the similarities with Nov of '85 when Kate hit FL even later (20th), and that the cold would settle-in afterwards as it did that year. There's that '85-86 analog showing its face again. 

I've been secretly cheering on an '07-08/'09-10 hybrid, but I could live with 85-86. Both Dec's featured solid snow/snowfall during the 2nd half of the month and a White Christmas at DTW.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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