Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out

[jaster220]

20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Has my vote!

@jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? 

I think this is our year, my friend.

Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). 

I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it.

He spoke to my caveats very well. 

Great video.

It was a great vid - about to watch it again actually. Don't forget, we had Octo-bomb back in 2010 as a pre-cursor to GHD-1. Will we see something strong come out of all this crashing arctic air? 

@Tom

Remember all those winters when the bulk of the cold air was on the other side of the N Hemi? It seems like this year the cold wants to play on our side for a nice change. 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

It was a great vid - about to watch it again actually. Don't forget, we had Octo-bomb back in 2010 as a pre-cursor to GHD-1. Will we see something strong come out of all this crashing arctic air? 

@Tom

Remember all those winters when the bulk of the cold air was on the other side of the N Hemi? It seems like this year the cold wants to play on our side for a nice change. 

Siberia and Russia are always frigid this time of year but to develop the type of cold air being advertised in North America is always a very good sign.  #homebrewed

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Siberia and Russia are always frigid this time of year but to develop the type of cold air being advertised in North America is always a very good sign.  #homebrewed

True dat. The trick is getting the cold to come our way. Did you catch the part in the video where he stated that the current PV is the coldest on record? Are you familiar with exactly how/where they take measurements? Also, do you have updates on snowcover progress in Canada or Siberia for that matter now that Oct is ending. I know you used to always track that and post Dr. Cohen's analysis on the topic.

[Tom]

BAMWx has their Full Winter forecast today and I'm curious to see what hey have to say.  They are pretty good and have done well over the years.   I gotta tell ya, they are pretty excited about this year's potential for the MW where Winter's have been lacking.  Here's a preview...

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

BAMWx has their Full Winter forecast today and I'm curious to see what hey have to say.  They are pretty good and have done well over the years.   I gotta tell ya, they are pretty excited about this year's potential for the MW where Winter's have been lacking.  Here's a preview...

Appears as though they think it will be a northern stream only winter.

Id say actual real observations of the beginning pattern have already disproved that. 

They're not seeing massive blocking in the NE US either, from that map.

[jaster220]

BAM! me

[gimmesnow]

ETA for Alpine Valley opening, November 18th, one of the earliest starts to the season. Some good looking, cold nights in the accuweather extended forecast. Here's hoping, a couple nights in the teens is enough to make some serious snow. Looks like I might get away with a little over a week between jet ski and snowboard season this year. I noticed it seems like the less time between my hobbies, the better winter is. Here's hoping, I'm so ready.

[Clinton]

Both Joe D'Aleo and Terry Swails have written about the impacts of a warm MDR zone combined with a cooler MDR zone in the tropics and paired with a La Nina and how that translates to cold in the north central US.

Here is a link to Swails blog very good read this morning.  https://www.tswails.com/single-post/riders-on-the-storm

Here are some of Joe D'Aleo thoughts.

The less active hurricane season meant less cooling of the ocean waters north of the MDR.

That when a La Nina is occurring correlates with the following temperature pattern in winter for NAM which fits our analogs and statistical models:

That should translate to more snows across the northwest, north central, Great Lakes and Northeast (best bet Appalachians west but with a chance to the coastal northeast and Mid Atlantic). Boston for the 12 years shown had above normal in 7 of 11 years. 4 years were modestly below. The average of the 11 years was 41.4 inches but 5 years were over 50 inches (highest 60 inches in 2010/11).

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Both Joe D'Aleo and Terry Swails have written about the impacts of a warm MDR zone combined with a cooler MDR zone in the tropics and paired with a La Nina and how that translates to cold in the north central US.

Here is a link to Swails blog very good read this morning.  https://www.tswails.com/single-post/riders-on-the-storm

Here are some of Joe D'Aleo thoughts.

The less active hurricane season meant less cooling of the ocean waters north of the MDR.

That when a La Nina is occurring correlates with the following temperature pattern in winter for NAM which fits our analogs and statistical models:

That should translate to more snows across the northwest, north central, Great Lakes and Northeast (best bet Appalachians west but with a chance to the coastal northeast and Mid Atlantic). Boston for the 12 years shown had above normal in 7 of 11 years. 4 years were modestly below. The average of the 11 years was 41.4 inches but 5 years were over 50 inches (highest 60 inches in 2010/11).

The ORD Met who posts elsewhere a bit (mostly in the winter) said that he's cautiously optimistic that we will have a more work-able cold season. He cited numerous warm Novembers that were driven by a very +EPO. Those winters almost always went on to be warm duds. But our warmth now is -PNA driven which keeps the door open for a reversal as we get further down the road into actual cold months. It's not an ideal starting place (the flip was mid-Oct in 2013 and stuck for instance), but he's not totally down on the situation. He mentions the dominate HP over Alaska as another good trend/sign. I think this is pretty much what Tom, you, OKwx, etc have also been seeing in your LR disco's on the upcoming winter.  

[jaster220]

In Swail's blog post he shows the EPO going NEGATIVE bringing the cold down and east. Interesting the JB's update this evening he's also reminding listeners of his call for an active finish to the tropical season. Noting the similarities with Nov of '85 when Kate hit FL even later (20th), and that the cold would settle-in afterwards as it did that year. There's that '85-86 analog showing its face again. 

I've been secretly cheering on an '07-08/'09-10 hybrid, but I could live with 85-86. Both Dec's featured solid snow/snowfall during the 2nd half of the month and a White Christmas at DTW.  

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The ORD Met who posts elsewhere a bit (mostly in the winter) said that he's cautiously optimistic that we will have a more work-able cold season. He cited numerous warm Novembers that were driven by a very +EPO. Those winters almost always went on to be warm duds. But our warmth now is -PNA driven which keeps the door open for a reversal as we get further down the road into actual cold months. It's not an ideal starting place (the flip was mid-Oct in 2013 and stuck for instance), but he's not totally down on the situation. He mentions the dominate HP over Alaska as another good trend/sign. I think this is pretty much what Tom, you, OKwx, etc have also been seeing in your LR disco's on the upcoming winter.  

It looks like the cold will be there for you this year.  The past few years that seems to be the challenge for your area with the lakes keeping your temps just a hair to warm.  My only concern for your area is how strong will the storms be when they make it to you.  The last few weeks there has been a bit of a trend for storms to weaken as they get around Michigan.  The first 2 weeks of the LRC or the time from Oct 6th-20th seemed very favorable to your area to get precip and some true Artic air.

[Clinton]

Here are the temperature and precipitation anomaly's for the past 30 days or the first 30 days of the LRC.  Hopefully over the next 15-30 days we can get those temps down a little and keep tacking on the precip and get some to the areas that have missed out.

[jaster220]

Seeing all those warm temp records from Nov '75 and hearing some comparisons with that winter as an analog. I remember it plainly as another snowy winter of my youth. That Nov also flipped somewhat from very mild during gun deer season mid-month to a sizeable snowstorm Thanksgiving weekend. The cold regime stuck around as did frequent and numerous snowstorms. One nice storm hit on Boxing Day and the Detroit region got hit good with a solid 9" depth at DTW on the 27th. It's amazing how well The Mitt was doing that early winter. Looking at a map most others in our Sub would not be a fan of a repeat.

Snow Weenie suicide alerts must've been in effect for the entire state of Iowa - sheesh!

[clintbeed1993]

SOI index is crashing like crazy. If this continues, I foresee an extremely harsh winter. Do not discount the significance of a crashing SOI during the late fall. If it goes negative, LOOK OUT. 

[gimmesnow]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Seeing all those warm temp records from Nov '75 and hearing some comparisons with that winter as an analog. I remember it plainly as another snowy winter of my youth. That Nov also flipped somewhat from very mild during gun deer season mid-month to a sizeable snowstorm Thanksgiving weekend. The cold regime stuck around as did frequent and numerous snowstorms. One nice storm hit on Boxing Day and the Detroit region got hit good with a solid 9" depth at DTW on the 27th. It's amazing how well The Mitt was doing that early winter. Looking at a map most others in our Sub would not be a fan of a repeat.

Snow Weenie suicide alerts must've been in effect for the entire state of Iowa - sheesh!

Wow WTF that's like last Winter when anyone near the WI/IL border got completely screwed. NO THANKS.

[gabel23]

No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?!

 

 

[jaster220]

@gabel23 Gosh, would sure hope NOT 

[gimmesnow]

17 hours ago, gabel23 said:

No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?!

 

 

I sure hope not, there was just a major "screw you" line from you to me last year, snow to the north,, snow to the south, none for me and you. Nothing like watching places with no snowmobile trails or ski resorts get tons of snow while your snowmobile sits parked because you're not getting anything.

[CentralNebWeather]

19 hours ago, gabel23 said:

No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?!

 

 

Looking at the extended models, nothing seems to be changing in our area.  Hope they are wrong.

[westMJim]

Hum, here is some very interesting take on long range outlooks from Mlive

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/11/see-why-our-long-range-winter-forecasts-now-have-a-complication.html

 

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

The models did a great job in terms of snowfall amounts for the mountains out west.  The Sierra's got pummeled with many places reporting 20-40" of Snow and a few locals in the central Sierra's topping out near 50"!  Oh, and Park City, UT got hit with another Big Snow.

 

 

 

All that snow in the Siera Mntns has to be good news for Cali

[Tom]

You can't ask for a better way to start off the cold season across Canada and now into the Lower 48.  "Home Brewed" cold has made a statement and with the active parade of storm systems into the western U.S. it has laid down the Foundation for sustained cold air.  In year's past, I recall several times where we lacked the snow cover over the Prairies of SW Canada into the Upper MW.  Not this year.  The seasons 1st Blizzard has rocked the upper MW and has delivered quite the snowstorm for those folks.  Not a bad way to open up the season, ay?

This map doesn't cover the recent winter storm over the Upper MW...

 

 

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

You can't ask for a better way to start off the cold season across Canada and now into the Lower 48.  "Home Brewed" cold has made a statement and with the active parade of storm systems into the western U.S. it has laid down the Foundation for sustained cold air.  In year's past, I recall several times where we lacked the snow cover over the Prairies of SW Canada into the Upper MW.  Not this year.  The seasons 1st Blizzard has rocked the upper MW and has delivered quite the snowstorm for those folks.  Not a bad way to open up the season, ay?

This map doesn't cover the recent winter storm over the Upper MW...

 

 

Both the GFS and Euro showing an amplified phase 7 as we get towards the last week of Nov.  Looks like the phase 6 warm up will be brief.  This is exciting stuff with a - EPO and the other teleconnections hovering around neutral the MJO could really drive the pattern.

 

[Clinton]

What a way to enter Dec.  Phase 7 moving into phase 8.

Negative NAO

 

[Tom]

Y'all ready???  Fresh and Hot Off the Press...I'm pleased to show you the latest JMA seasonal wx maps that open up Met Winter with a beautiful looking 500mb map.  Hello to a Massive -NAO Block...My goodness...West Coast ridge and High Lat blocking will unload the cold across the Eastern CONUS.

 

 

The model is showing the "corridor" of where the Cold Air will set up...right over nearly every member in our Sub...mind you, this global model has a hard time showing BN temps as do many others.

Active N Stream and I'm sure there will be some S Stream thrown into the pattern....

 

 

January...

 

 

Somewhat of a JAN Thaw??? Slight SER???

 

Much more active pattern...

 

 

 

 

February...

 

 

Feb Thaw looks more stout....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Y'all ready???  Fresh and Hot Off the Press...I'm pleased to show you the latest JMA seasonal wx maps that open up Met Winter with a beautiful looking 500mb map.  Hello to a Massive -NAO Block...My goodness...West Coast ridge and High Lat blocking will unload the cold across the Eastern CONUS.

 

 

The model is showing the "corridor" of where the Cold Air will set up...right over nearly every member in our Sub...mind you, this global model has a hard time showing BN temps as do many others.

Active N Stream and I'm sure there will be some S Stream thrown into the pattern....

 

 

January...

 

 

Somewhat of a JAN Thaw??? Slight SER???

 

Much more active pattern...

 

 

 

 

February...

 

 

Feb Thaw looks more stout....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fast start and then an ehhhh winter? Thats no good

[Tom]

13 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Fast start and then an ehhhh winter? Thats no good

No, No, No…not at all…maybe for those farther south and East…IMO, those of you up north will likely see an Endless Winter.  Buckle up!

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

No, No, No…not at all…maybe for those farther south and East…IMO, those of you up north will likely see an Endless Winter.  Buckle up!

Looks like when it's coldest (Dec) it is also driest. More moist around my region later in winter as has been the theme for Idk how many years running now?

[Tom]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like when it's coldest (Dec) it is also driest. More moist around my region later in winter as has been the theme for Idk how many years running now?

I could see a CO Low or 2 in DEC to materialize based on the pattern that should evolve next month.  Clippers...Hybrids?  Those troughs coming off the PAC into the N Rockies will be a common theme and should also deliver the "goods".

[Clinton]

The closer we get to December the colder it looks.  The phase 6 MJO we are experiencing now will pull temperatures closer to normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the plains.  This warm up looks to be brief except for the plains may take a little longer to cool off.  However all models have the MJO going into phase 7 by the 25th.  Along with the MJO going back into a cold phase both the GEFS Ext and the Euro Weeklies show a negative AO, NAO, and has the EPO returning to negative territory.  Cold air with cross polar flow at times showed up early in this years LRC and this will likely show up again by week 2 or 3 of December maybe sooner.

Amazing how similar the GEFS and Euro are even in the long range.

[jaster220]

On 11/14/2022 at 1:33 PM, Tom said:

I could see a CO Low or 2 in DEC to materialize based on the pattern that should evolve next month.  Clippers...Hybrids?  Those troughs coming off the PAC into the N Rockies will be a common theme and should also deliver the "goods".

We have a fellow "snow and cold fanatic" in Ryan Hall Y'all and I'm pretty sure he's in agreement with you on that bud!

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The closer we get to December the colder it looks.  The phase 6 MJO we are experiencing now will pull temperatures closer to normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the plains.  This warm up looks to be brief except for the plains may take a little longer to cool off.  However all models have the MJO going into phase 7 by the 25th.  Along with the MJO going back into a cold phase both the GEFS Ext and the Euro Weeklies show a negative AO, NAO, and has the EPO returning to negative territory.  Cold air with cross polar flow at times showed up early in this years LRC and this will likely show up again by week 2 or 3 of December maybe sooner.

Amazing how similar the GEFS and Euro are even in the long range.

That looks really good Amigo. For The Lakes, we are NOT helped by too strongly negative AO or NAO. I can only remember one time that worked out back in 09-10 when the combo over-rode the mod-Nino and delivered a dbl-digit snowstorm we would normally never get in a Nino January. On the other hand, we can do very well if a -EPO takes control. It will over-ride even a very POS AO/NAO as we experienced in 13-14 the historic winter. Appreciate you posting all these data sets - keep 'em coming. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That looks really good Amigo. For The Lakes, we are NOT helped by too strongly negative AO or NAO. I can only remember one time that worked out back in 09-10 when the combo over-rode the mod-Nino and delivered a dbl-digit snowstorm we would normally never get in a Nino January. On the other hand, we can do very well if a -EPO takes control. It will over-ride even a very POS AO/NAO as we experienced in 13-14 the historic winter. Appreciate you posting all these data sets - keep 'em coming. 

Around here we almost have to have a negative AO and NAO to get a major snow storm. Being this far south I need the blocking and artic air to be close by.

[clintbeed1993]

SOI is the main thing to keep your eye on. If you want to get blasted with snow, you want that to keep falling and go negative in December. A late crashing SOI is rare but has historically provided for brutal powerful snowstorms during the winter it happens. 

[westMJim]

Here is the updated CPC outlook for December
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Will toss up the seasonal update when it is posted.
The snow has just picked up here again and is falling at a moderate rate.

[westMJim]

OK, here is the updated CPC outlooks for December and then JFM. There does not look to be much change from the earlier out looks. So here is December 2022
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
And here is JFM 2023
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
Spring 2023
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4
Summer 2023
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7
and Fall 2023
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=10
and just for the fun of it winter 2023/24
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=13

[Tom]

7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest CFS monthly showing quite a bit of high latitude blocking for January.

That PAC jet cutting underneath will deliver a plethora of precipitation!

[jaster220]

WOOD TV-8 in Grand Rapids released their winter outlook the other day just before getting bombed with the LES storm. Last year they busted hard. They were banking on a 2nd year Nina delivering since 20-21 was so paltry. This year they went way conservative -oops. I know it's only 1 week into the snow season, but what a way to begin a low-ball forecast, lol. 

[GDR]

Joe Bastardi is going all in on a cold snowy December. I guess when doesn’t he?

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, GDR said:

Joe Bastardi is going all in on a cold snowy December. I guess when doesn’t he?

It's always 5 O-clock somewhere. It would be a rare month if no region east of the Rockies had a cold-n-snowy month of December so he's not wrong unless you qualify where exactly? And yes, he likes to go cold so no surprise. We have some in our Sub that are skilled at the LR stuff too so we don't need to look outside to other sources for that.  

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of the weeklies, quite a bit of blue showing up in December especially across the middle of the country. The -EPO signature looks to be a longstanding feature of this season's overall pattern.

What's exciting about the Euro Weeklies is that it rarely sees cold until it's right on top of you and it is seeing some serious cold in the long range.  Look what the Control did for the next 46 days.

Several times in October the pattern produced cross polar flow and as we are about to enter cycle 2 there is literally nothing to suggest that it won't do it again.  The MJO is headed out of the warm phase 6 that is producing our warm up we have now and headed to the cold phase 7 and then the even colder phase 8.  It may pull the hat trick and hit all 3 cold phases as some ensembles take it into phase 1 as well.

The EPO is about to tank again, as @hawkstwelveand @Tom have said this is a major staple of this years pattern.

The AO and NAO are headed negative

The combination of all of these teleconnections at the same time is a real rarity.  After years of warm Decembers in KC and many other places this will be way different.  Should be some major storms also, Nov 30th and Dec 7th for starters and I will stop there for now lol.  Enjoy the warm up while it last by the second week of December if will be a distant memory.  

 

[Clinton]

It's not just the Euro Weeklies going cold.  Check out the change in the GEFS Ext for weeks 2 and 3.

Previous run:

[Clinton]

The Euro is showing the NAO almost dropping to -4 by Dec 4th.

[jaster220]

During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

I saw the geese migrating down here in the desert of AZ about 2 weeks ago!  A whole bunch made a pit stop at the local pond. If they are coming down early, something may be brewing here also.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro is showing the NAO almost dropping to -4 by Dec 4th.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

Yes it is and a strong dip in the AO can dislodge the PV.

[Tom]

Hmmmm, this is trending in a + direction....co-sign???

 

[jaster220]

36 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hmmmm, this is trending in a + direction....co-sign???

 

All I can say is we're way overdue for a good January. 9 years for most of SMI since one delivered true winter.

[MIKEKC]

The ICON has started the trend back to a major storm in the Plains mid next week, 50 days from the major storm from  early Nov. where KC had over 3 inches of rain. Right in line with the LRC....

 

The arctic air on this run is quite impressive!!!!