OKwx2k4 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 hours ago, jaster220 said: Not sure why @gabel23 didn't post the actual Winter Forecast, but here we go! (and I like it - hello OKwx!) Wow! I'm really intrigued by the potential wildcard that strange volcanic eruption could play. The "Y'all-o-meter" at the end (thought I was watching an add for male enhancement there for a min, lol) makes me wish I had my own yard again. Has my vote! @jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? I think this is our year, my friend. Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it. He spoke to my caveats very well. Great video. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Has my vote! @jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? I think this is our year, my friend. Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it. He spoke to my caveats very well. Great video. Dude's pretty entertaining as well. Less mundane delivery than the typical seasonal outlook vid. That alone makes it a fun watch. But to your point(s), perhaps then Nature has some balancing that is overdue for your region and wants/needs to get busy doing just that. Idk but I'm drawn to 10-11 as an example that seems to fit here. 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Glad you guys liked it! Sorry @jaster220 I forgot to submit the winter outlook! I must say he has some pretty awesome insights with weather and is very knowledgable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Has my vote! @jaster220 Remember all those storms i used to write about from history that both my area and yours are linked by? I think this is our year, my friend. Also, from that video of the average snowfalls, that little tail of 12-24 inches average into the Ozarks is why I've been frustrated for nearly a decade. I think I've averaged 9 inches over 20 years and that includes a 20 plus and a 33 inch winter (2011). I'm nervous because everything is literally perfect but if the Pacific fails (EPO blocks up) or sets up in the wrong place, I'm hosed and I know it. He spoke to my caveats very well. Great video. It was a great vid - about to watch it again actually. Don't forget, we had Octo-bomb back in 2010 as a pre-cursor to GHD-1. Will we see something strong come out of all this crashing arctic air? @Tom Remember all those winters when the bulk of the cold air was on the other side of the N Hemi? It seems like this year the cold wants to play on our side for a nice change. 3 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: It was a great vid - about to watch it again actually. Don't forget, we had Octo-bomb back in 2010 as a pre-cursor to GHD-1. Will we see something strong come out of all this crashing arctic air? @Tom Remember all those winters when the bulk of the cold air was on the other side of the N Hemi? It seems like this year the cold wants to play on our side for a nice change. Siberia and Russia are always frigid this time of year but to develop the type of cold air being advertised in North America is always a very good sign. #homebrewed 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Tom said: Siberia and Russia are always frigid this time of year but to develop the type of cold air being advertised in North America is always a very good sign. #homebrewed True dat. The trick is getting the cold to come our way. Did you catch the part in the video where he stated that the current PV is the coldest on record? Are you familiar with exactly how/where they take measurements? Also, do you have updates on snowcover progress in Canada or Siberia for that matter now that Oct is ending. I know you used to always track that and post Dr. Cohen's analysis on the topic. 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 BAMWx has their Full Winter forecast today and I'm curious to see what hey have to say. They are pretty good and have done well over the years. I gotta tell ya, they are pretty excited about this year's potential for the MW where Winter's have been lacking. Here's a preview... 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 10 hours ago, Tom said: BAMWx has their Full Winter forecast today and I'm curious to see what hey have to say. They are pretty good and have done well over the years. I gotta tell ya, they are pretty excited about this year's potential for the MW where Winter's have been lacking. Here's a preview... Appears as though they think it will be a northern stream only winter. Id say actual real observations of the beginning pattern have already disproved that. They're not seeing massive blocking in the NE US either, from that map. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 3, 2022 Report Share Posted November 3, 2022 BAM! me Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 ETA for Alpine Valley opening, November 18th, one of the earliest starts to the season. Some good looking, cold nights in the accuweather extended forecast. Here's hoping, a couple nights in the teens is enough to make some serious snow. Looks like I might get away with a little over a week between jet ski and snowboard season this year. I noticed it seems like the less time between my hobbies, the better winter is. Here's hoping, I'm so ready. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 Both Joe D'Aleo and Terry Swails have written about the impacts of a warm MDR zone combined with a cooler MDR zone in the tropics and paired with a La Nina and how that translates to cold in the north central US. Here is a link to Swails blog very good read this morning. https://www.tswails.com/single-post/riders-on-the-storm Here are some of Joe D'Aleo thoughts. The less active hurricane season meant less cooling of the ocean waters north of the MDR. That when a La Nina is occurring correlates with the following temperature pattern in winter for NAM which fits our analogs and statistical models: That should translate to more snows across the northwest, north central, Great Lakes and Northeast (best bet Appalachians west but with a chance to the coastal northeast and Mid Atlantic). Boston for the 12 years shown had above normal in 7 of 11 years. 4 years were modestly below. The average of the 11 years was 41.4 inches but 5 years were over 50 inches (highest 60 inches in 2010/11). 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2022 Report Share Posted November 5, 2022 5 hours ago, Clinton said: Both Joe D'Aleo and Terry Swails have written about the impacts of a warm MDR zone combined with a cooler MDR zone in the tropics and paired with a La Nina and how that translates to cold in the north central US. Here is a link to Swails blog very good read this morning. https://www.tswails.com/single-post/riders-on-the-storm Here are some of Joe D'Aleo thoughts. The less active hurricane season meant less cooling of the ocean waters north of the MDR. That when a La Nina is occurring correlates with the following temperature pattern in winter for NAM which fits our analogs and statistical models: That should translate to more snows across the northwest, north central, Great Lakes and Northeast (best bet Appalachians west but with a chance to the coastal northeast and Mid Atlantic). Boston for the 12 years shown had above normal in 7 of 11 years. 4 years were modestly below. The average of the 11 years was 41.4 inches but 5 years were over 50 inches (highest 60 inches in 2010/11). The ORD Met who posts elsewhere a bit (mostly in the winter) said that he's cautiously optimistic that we will have a more work-able cold season. He cited numerous warm Novembers that were driven by a very +EPO. Those winters almost always went on to be warm duds. But our warmth now is -PNA driven which keeps the door open for a reversal as we get further down the road into actual cold months. It's not an ideal starting place (the flip was mid-Oct in 2013 and stuck for instance), but he's not totally down on the situation. He mentions the dominate HP over Alaska as another good trend/sign. I think this is pretty much what Tom, you, OKwx, etc have also been seeing in your LR disco's on the upcoming winter. 3 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 In Swail's blog post he shows the EPO going NEGATIVE bringing the cold down and east. Interesting the JB's update this evening he's also reminding listeners of his call for an active finish to the tropical season. Noting the similarities with Nov of '85 when Kate hit FL even later (20th), and that the cold would settle-in afterwards as it did that year. There's that '85-86 analog showing its face again. I've been secretly cheering on an '07-08/'09-10 hybrid, but I could live with 85-86. Both Dec's featured solid snow/snowfall during the 2nd half of the month and a White Christmas at DTW. 3 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 5 hours ago, jaster220 said: The ORD Met who posts elsewhere a bit (mostly in the winter) said that he's cautiously optimistic that we will have a more work-able cold season. He cited numerous warm Novembers that were driven by a very +EPO. Those winters almost always went on to be warm duds. But our warmth now is -PNA driven which keeps the door open for a reversal as we get further down the road into actual cold months. It's not an ideal starting place (the flip was mid-Oct in 2013 and stuck for instance), but he's not totally down on the situation. He mentions the dominate HP over Alaska as another good trend/sign. I think this is pretty much what Tom, you, OKwx, etc have also been seeing in your LR disco's on the upcoming winter. It looks like the cold will be there for you this year. The past few years that seems to be the challenge for your area with the lakes keeping your temps just a hair to warm. My only concern for your area is how strong will the storms be when they make it to you. The last few weeks there has been a bit of a trend for storms to weaken as they get around Michigan. The first 2 weeks of the LRC or the time from Oct 6th-20th seemed very favorable to your area to get precip and some true Artic air. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 6, 2022 Report Share Posted November 6, 2022 Here are the temperature and precipitation anomaly's for the past 30 days or the first 30 days of the LRC. Hopefully over the next 15-30 days we can get those temps down a little and keep tacking on the precip and get some to the areas that have missed out. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Seeing all those warm temp records from Nov '75 and hearing some comparisons with that winter as an analog. I remember it plainly as another snowy winter of my youth. That Nov also flipped somewhat from very mild during gun deer season mid-month to a sizeable snowstorm Thanksgiving weekend. The cold regime stuck around as did frequent and numerous snowstorms. One nice storm hit on Boxing Day and the Detroit region got hit good with a solid 9" depth at DTW on the 27th. It's amazing how well The Mitt was doing that early winter. Looking at a map most others in our Sub would not be a fan of a repeat. Snow Weenie suicide alerts must've been in effect for the entire state of Iowa - sheesh! 3 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 SOI index is crashing like crazy. If this continues, I foresee an extremely harsh winter. Do not discount the significance of a crashing SOI during the late fall. If it goes negative, LOOK OUT. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 13 hours ago, jaster220 said: Seeing all those warm temp records from Nov '75 and hearing some comparisons with that winter as an analog. I remember it plainly as another snowy winter of my youth. That Nov also flipped somewhat from very mild during gun deer season mid-month to a sizeable snowstorm Thanksgiving weekend. The cold regime stuck around as did frequent and numerous snowstorms. One nice storm hit on Boxing Day and the Detroit region got hit good with a solid 9" depth at DTW on the 27th. It's amazing how well The Mitt was doing that early winter. Looking at a map most others in our Sub would not be a fan of a repeat. Snow Weenie suicide alerts must've been in effect for the entire state of Iowa - sheesh! Wow WTF that's like last Winter when anyone near the WI/IL border got completely screwed. NO THANKS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?! 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 @gabel23 Gosh, would sure hope NOT 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 17 hours ago, gabel23 said: No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?! I sure hope not, there was just a major "screw you" line from you to me last year, snow to the north,, snow to the south, none for me and you. Nothing like watching places with no snowmobile trails or ski resorts get tons of snow while your snowmobile sits parked because you're not getting anything. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 9, 2022 Report Share Posted November 9, 2022 19 hours ago, gabel23 said: No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?! Looking at the extended models, nothing seems to be changing in our area. Hope they are wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Hum, here is some very interesting take on long range outlooks from Mlive https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/11/see-why-our-long-range-winter-forecasts-now-have-a-complication.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 13 hours ago, Tom said: The models did a great job in terms of snowfall amounts for the mountains out west. The Sierra's got pummeled with many places reporting 20-40" of Snow and a few locals in the central Sierra's topping out near 50"! Oh, and Park City, UT got hit with another Big Snow. All that snow in the Siera Mntns has to be good news for Cali 2 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 You can't ask for a better way to start off the cold season across Canada and now into the Lower 48. "Home Brewed" cold has made a statement and with the active parade of storm systems into the western U.S. it has laid down the Foundation for sustained cold air. In year's past, I recall several times where we lacked the snow cover over the Prairies of SW Canada into the Upper MW. Not this year. The seasons 1st Blizzard has rocked the upper MW and has delivered quite the snowstorm for those folks. Not a bad way to open up the season, ay? This map doesn't cover the recent winter storm over the Upper MW... 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Tom said: You can't ask for a better way to start off the cold season across Canada and now into the Lower 48. "Home Brewed" cold has made a statement and with the active parade of storm systems into the western U.S. it has laid down the Foundation for sustained cold air. In year's past, I recall several times where we lacked the snow cover over the Prairies of SW Canada into the Upper MW. Not this year. The seasons 1st Blizzard has rocked the upper MW and has delivered quite the snowstorm for those folks. Not a bad way to open up the season, ay? This map doesn't cover the recent winter storm over the Upper MW... Both the GFS and Euro showing an amplified phase 7 as we get towards the last week of Nov. Looks like the phase 6 warm up will be brief. This is exciting stuff with a - EPO and the other teleconnections hovering around neutral the MJO could really drive the pattern. 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 On 11/11/2022 at 7:38 AM, Clinton said: Both the GFS and Euro showing an amplified phase 7 as we get towards the last week of Nov. Looks like the phase 6 warm up will be brief. This is exciting stuff with a - EPO and the other teleconnections hovering around neutral the MJO could really drive the pattern. Latest GEFS is showing it going into phase 7 as well. That is a nice looking pattern for us. I think you mentioned at one point that there is a 10 day lag time for the associated pattern to develop? I'm still learning about MJO but that would line up well with my hunch about turning cold again around the 2nd week of December. 2 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 What a way to enter Dec. Phase 7 moving into phase 8. Negative NAO 2 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 Y'all ready??? Fresh and Hot Off the Press...I'm pleased to show you the latest JMA seasonal wx maps that open up Met Winter with a beautiful looking 500mb map. Hello to a Massive -NAO Block...My goodness...West Coast ridge and High Lat blocking will unload the cold across the Eastern CONUS. The model is showing the "corridor" of where the Cold Air will set up...right over nearly every member in our Sub...mind you, this global model has a hard time showing BN temps as do many others. Active N Stream and I'm sure there will be some S Stream thrown into the pattern.... January... Somewhat of a JAN Thaw??? Slight SER??? Much more active pattern... February... Feb Thaw looks more stout.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: Y'all ready??? Fresh and Hot Off the Press...I'm pleased to show you the latest JMA seasonal wx maps that open up Met Winter with a beautiful looking 500mb map. Hello to a Massive -NAO Block...My goodness...West Coast ridge and High Lat blocking will unload the cold across the Eastern CONUS. The model is showing the "corridor" of where the Cold Air will set up...right over nearly every member in our Sub...mind you, this global model has a hard time showing BN temps as do many others. Active N Stream and I'm sure there will be some S Stream thrown into the pattern.... January... Somewhat of a JAN Thaw??? Slight SER??? Much more active pattern... February... Feb Thaw looks more stout.... Fast start and then an ehhhh winter? Thats no good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Madtown said: Fast start and then an ehhhh winter? Thats no good No, No, No…not at all…maybe for those farther south and East…IMO, those of you up north will likely see an Endless Winter. Buckle up! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: No, No, No…not at all…maybe for those farther south and East…IMO, those of you up north will likely see an Endless Winter. Buckle up! Looks like when it's coldest (Dec) it is also driest. More moist around my region later in winter as has been the theme for Idk how many years running now? 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2022 Report Share Posted November 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Looks like when it's coldest (Dec) it is also driest. More moist around my region later in winter as has been the theme for Idk how many years running now? I could see a CO Low or 2 in DEC to materialize based on the pattern that should evolve next month. Clippers...Hybrids? Those troughs coming off the PAC into the N Rockies will be a common theme and should also deliver the "goods". 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 The closer we get to December the colder it looks. The phase 6 MJO we are experiencing now will pull temperatures closer to normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the plains. This warm up looks to be brief except for the plains may take a little longer to cool off. However all models have the MJO going into phase 7 by the 25th. Along with the MJO going back into a cold phase both the GEFS Ext and the Euro Weeklies show a negative AO, NAO, and has the EPO returning to negative territory. Cold air with cross polar flow at times showed up early in this years LRC and this will likely show up again by week 2 or 3 of December maybe sooner. Amazing how similar the GEFS and Euro are even in the long range. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 1:33 PM, Tom said: I could see a CO Low or 2 in DEC to materialize based on the pattern that should evolve next month. Clippers...Hybrids? Those troughs coming off the PAC into the N Rockies will be a common theme and should also deliver the "goods". We have a fellow "snow and cold fanatic" in Ryan Hall Y'all and I'm pretty sure he's in agreement with you on that bud! 2 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: The closer we get to December the colder it looks. The phase 6 MJO we are experiencing now will pull temperatures closer to normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the plains. This warm up looks to be brief except for the plains may take a little longer to cool off. However all models have the MJO going into phase 7 by the 25th. Along with the MJO going back into a cold phase both the GEFS Ext and the Euro Weeklies show a negative AO, NAO, and has the EPO returning to negative territory. Cold air with cross polar flow at times showed up early in this years LRC and this will likely show up again by week 2 or 3 of December maybe sooner. Amazing how similar the GEFS and Euro are even in the long range. That looks really good Amigo. For The Lakes, we are NOT helped by too strongly negative AO or NAO. I can only remember one time that worked out back in 09-10 when the combo over-rode the mod-Nino and delivered a dbl-digit snowstorm we would normally never get in a Nino January. On the other hand, we can do very well if a -EPO takes control. It will over-ride even a very POS AO/NAO as we experienced in 13-14 the historic winter. Appreciate you posting all these data sets - keep 'em coming. 3 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: That looks really good Amigo. For The Lakes, we are NOT helped by too strongly negative AO or NAO. I can only remember one time that worked out back in 09-10 when the combo over-rode the mod-Nino and delivered a dbl-digit snowstorm we would normally never get in a Nino January. On the other hand, we can do very well if a -EPO takes control. It will over-ride even a very POS AO/NAO as we experienced in 13-14 the historic winter. Appreciate you posting all these data sets - keep 'em coming. Around here we almost have to have a negative AO and NAO to get a major snow storm. Being this far south I need the blocking and artic air to be close by. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 SOI is the main thing to keep your eye on. If you want to get blasted with snow, you want that to keep falling and go negative in December. A late crashing SOI is rare but has historically provided for brutal powerful snowstorms during the winter it happens. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 17, 2022 Report Share Posted November 17, 2022 Here is the updated CPC outlook for December https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ Will toss up the seasonal update when it is posted. The snow has just picked up here again and is falling at a moderate rate. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 OK, here is the updated CPC outlooks for December and then JFM. There does not look to be much change from the earlier out looks. So here is December 2022 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php And here is JFM 2023 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Spring 2023 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4 Summer 2023 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7 and Fall 2023 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=10 and just for the fun of it winter 2023/24 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Latest CFS monthly showing quite a bit of high latitude blocking for January. 4 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Latest CFS monthly showing quite a bit of high latitude blocking for January. That PAC jet cutting underneath will deliver a plethora of precipitation! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 21, 2022 Report Share Posted November 21, 2022 WOOD TV-8 in Grand Rapids released their winter outlook the other day just before getting bombed with the LES storm. Last year they busted hard. They were banking on a 2nd year Nina delivering since 20-21 was so paltry. This year they went way conservative -oops. I know it's only 1 week into the snow season, but what a way to begin a low-ball forecast, lol. 2 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Joe Bastardi is going all in on a cold snowy December. I guess when doesn’t he? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 20 minutes ago, GDR said: Joe Bastardi is going all in on a cold snowy December. I guess when doesn’t he? It's always 5 O-clock somewhere. It would be a rare month if no region east of the Rockies had a cold-n-snowy month of December so he's not wrong unless you qualify where exactly? And yes, he likes to go cold so no surprise. We have some in our Sub that are skilled at the LR stuff too so we don't need to look outside to other sources for that. 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Doesn't mean much this far out but the latest EPS weekly control run is showing some snow around Christmas time. 1 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted November 22, 2022 Report Share Posted November 22, 2022 Speaking of the weeklies, quite a bit of blue showing up in December especially across the middle of the country. The -EPO signature looks to be a longstanding feature of this season's overall pattern. 4 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Speaking of the weeklies, quite a bit of blue showing up in December especially across the middle of the country. The -EPO signature looks to be a longstanding feature of this season's overall pattern. What's exciting about the Euro Weeklies is that it rarely sees cold until it's right on top of you and it is seeing some serious cold in the long range. Look what the Control did for the next 46 days. Several times in October the pattern produced cross polar flow and as we are about to enter cycle 2 there is literally nothing to suggest that it won't do it again. The MJO is headed out of the warm phase 6 that is producing our warm up we have now and headed to the cold phase 7 and then the even colder phase 8. It may pull the hat trick and hit all 3 cold phases as some ensembles take it into phase 1 as well. The EPO is about to tank again, as @hawkstwelveand @Tom have said this is a major staple of this years pattern. The AO and NAO are headed negative The combination of all of these teleconnections at the same time is a real rarity. After years of warm Decembers in KC and many other places this will be way different. Should be some major storms also, Nov 30th and Dec 7th for starters and I will stop there for now lol. Enjoy the warm up while it last by the second week of December if will be a distant memory. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 It's not just the Euro Weeklies going cold. Check out the change in the GEFS Ext for weeks 2 and 3. Previous run: 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 The Euro is showing the NAO almost dropping to -4 by Dec 4th. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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