Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out

[jaster220]

During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

I saw the geese migrating down here in the desert of AZ about 2 weeks ago!  A whole bunch made a pit stop at the local pond. If they are coming down early, something may be brewing here also.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro is showing the NAO almost dropping to -4 by Dec 4th.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

Yes it is and a strong dip in the AO can dislodge the PV.

[Tom]

Hmmmm, this is trending in a + direction....co-sign???

 

[jaster220]

36 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hmmmm, this is trending in a + direction....co-sign???

 

All I can say is we're way overdue for a good January. 9 years for most of SMI since one delivered true winter.

[MIKEKC]

The ICON has started the trend back to a major storm in the Plains mid next week, 50 days from the major storm from  early Nov. where KC had over 3 inches of rain. Right in line with the LRC....

 

The arctic air on this run is quite impressive!!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

The ICON has started the trend back to a major storm in the Plains mid next week, 50 days from the major storm from  early Nov. where KC had over 3 inches of rain. Right in line with the LRC....

 

The arctic air on this run is quite impressive!!!!

I just saw that.  My gosh would that be a holiday miracle in our areas that have been missed.  Hope other models trend in this direction.  

[Clinton]

It looks like the MJO will continue to cycle through the same phases that have produced these very cold air masses in Nov and Dec.  Reload and then unload over and over again.

[Andie]

A driver in Grapevine ,Texas-north of me - posted this video of the tornado that recently hit the area. 

https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/grapevine-texas-tornado

[OKwx2k4]

Wondering if the ENSO warming west of 180 is going to pump the southern side up as we head through the season. 

May be partial credit in there for finally seeing this ridge break down and shift away to the west finally.

Seeing the Pacific roar with well placed storms is a huge plus per the "BSR".

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

It looks like the MJO will continue to cycle through the same phases that have produced these very cold air masses in Nov and Dec.  Reload and then unload over and over again.

Its like the 1983-84 reload style. What a pattern.

What a season so far and someone's going to get absolutely smashed before this season is done, if not a lot of us. 

[Clinton]

Looks like somethings brewing in the long rang around New Years and/or a couple of days after as 2 storms look to impact the middle of the country.  The Canadian ensembles are the most aggressive with incorporating cold air into the pattern to get some backside snow as they show a series of cutters.  The first in the series cutting hard and the 2nd further east.  LRC reference point 11/14 - 11/20.

 

How significant or long lasting the warm up will be early in the month is TBD but by the second week of January the teleconnections seem to be coming into the same alignment that have produced the last 2 cold spells (-EPO, -AO, -NAO, MJO phase 8).

[Clinton]

Interesting write up by D'Aleo yesterday that also seems in a way relevant to the ongoing discussion about models in the Pre Christmas Storm thread.

•  Home
•  WeatherBELL Premium
•  Joe D'Aleo Blog
• Ensembles

Joe D'Aleo
Dec 22 2022

Ensembles

NOAA tells us: The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather model created by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) that generates 21 separate forecasts (ensemble members) to address underlying uncertainties in the input data such as limited coverage, instruments or observing systems biases, and the limitations of the model itself. GEFS quantifies these uncertainties by generating multiple forecasts, which in turn produce a range of potential outcomes based on differences or perturbations applied to the data after it has been incorporated into the model. Each forecast compensates for a different set of uncertainties.

Bitter cold air is invading today.

Warming follows as we often see after a major arctic invasion. This a GFS mean ensemble day 15-16, a very different story.

See the individual members do not all agree with a few even cold.

That is true for the ECMWF which has 50 such members.

There is more variability which explains the fading of the anomaly colors.

The Canadian model is colder in the mean at day 15-16.

See more members bring back cold after a break.

It is a little like when you travel down a highway. The individual cars diverge with time. Some are faster moving, some slower, some turn off and exit to another road or highway. Ensembles are useful tools but you do need to look below the cover and see how the ensemble mix changes with time.

Next week would expect more member all models will show a different view for this time period and beyond as JB has discussed. Meanwhile stay warm and wishes for a Merry Christmas.

 

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

Interesting write up by D'Aleo yesterday that also seems in a way relevant to the ongoing discussion about models in the Pre Christmas Storm thread.

•  Home
•  WeatherBELL Premium
•  Joe D'Aleo Blog
• Ensembles

Joe D'Aleo
Dec 22 2022

Ensembles

NOAA tells us: The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather model created by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) that generates 21 separate forecasts (ensemble members) to address underlying uncertainties in the input data such as limited coverage, instruments or observing systems biases, and the limitations of the model itself. GEFS quantifies these uncertainties by generating multiple forecasts, which in turn produce a range of potential outcomes based on differences or perturbations applied to the data after it has been incorporated into the model. Each forecast compensates for a different set of uncertainties.

Bitter cold air is invading today.

Warming follows as we often see after a major arctic invasion. This a GFS mean ensemble day 15-16, a very different story.

See the individual members do not all agree with a few even cold.

That is true for the ECMWF which has 50 such members.

There is more variability which explains the fading of the anomaly colors.

The Canadian model is colder in the mean at day 15-16.

See more members bring back cold after a break.

It is a little like when you travel down a highway. The individual cars diverge with time. Some are faster moving, some slower, some turn off and exit to another road or highway. Ensembles are useful tools but you do need to look below the cover and see how the ensemble mix changes with time.

Next week would expect more member all models will show a different view for this time period and beyond as JB has discussed. Meanwhile stay warm and wishes for a Merry Christmas.

 

I miss buying their stuff and watching their videos every day. I haven't in awhile because of bad and boring winters. I love what those guys do because they are not in the least bit afraid to reach out and teach what they do so that people can love it like we all do. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

On 12/18/2022 at 2:34 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

Wondering if the ENSO warming west of 180 is going to pump the southern side up as we head through the season. 

May be partial credit in there for finally seeing this ridge break down and shift away to the west finally.

Seeing the Pacific roar with well placed storms is a huge plus per the "BSR".

I mean it was supposed to happen in December but….

[jaster220]

On 12/23/2022 at 9:47 AM, Clinton said:

Looks like somethings brewing in the long rang around New Years and/or a couple of days after as 2 storms look to impact the middle of the country.  The Canadian ensembles are the most aggressive with incorporating cold air into the pattern to get some backside snow as they show a series of cutters.  The first in the series cutting hard and the 2nd further east.  LRC reference point 11/14 - 11/20.

 

How significant or long lasting the warm up will be early in the month is TBD but by the second week of January the teleconnections seem to be coming into the same alignment that have produced the last 2 cold spells (-EPO, -AO, -NAO, MJO phase 8).

Thx Clinton. Nice post. If I had to place a bet, I would bet that MSP gets theirs. The rest of us who knows?

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Thx Clinton. Nice post. If I had to place a bet, I would bet that MSP gets theirs. The rest of us who knows?

They are the hot spot and seem to get some out of every storm that moves through the sub.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

They are the hot spot and seem to get some out of every storm that moves through the sub.

They've got the criss-cross thing going for 'em this winter. Stuf moving SW to NE hits them, and stuff moving NW to SE too. Lansing had that here in The Mitt last winter. They did well. 

[Clinton]

Wx Bells forecast for February, March, and April.  Hopefully February is pulling the cold because I'm not real interested in a cold April.

 

[Andie]

After the 70’s today and windy, I’m ready for some winter. It’s been evading us since Fall.  
High 50’s tomorrow and 35 tomorrow night.  Finally.  

[Andie]

So, Re New Winter Outlooks, what’s the picture for Okla/Texas?  
We’ve had a perpetual Fall so far.  

[Madtown]

6 hours ago, Andie said:

So, Re New Winter Outlooks, what’s the picture for Okla/Texas?  
We’ve had a perpetual Fall so far.  

Ah you can't change up your picture like that...messes with everythint

[Andie]

Well, heck!  That’s not fair!
It’s so dry here the birds are developing allergies!   Coughing their little heads off!!

I can’t believe I have to actually water so our bushes don’t develop dry kill.  
Crazy.  

[jaster220]

On 1/11/2023 at 7:34 PM, Clinton said:

Wx Bells forecast for February, March, and April.  Hopefully February is pulling the cold because I'm not real interested in a cold April.

 

Late spring again almost guarantee now. Have to pay for all this non-winter during winter.

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Late spring again almost guarantee now. Have to pay for all this non-winter during winter.

Not a fan of below normal temps for April and May.  It's not good weather for young calves plus it can kill severe weather season.  Seems like Bastardi is riding the CVS2 and several analog years, hopefully it ends up being a blown forecast.

[Mr Marine Layer]

On 1/12/2023 at 8:08 PM, Andie said:

Well, heck!  That’s not fair!
It’s so dry here the birds are developing allergies!   Coughing their little heads off!!

I can’t believe I have to actually water so our bushes don’t develop dry kill.  
Crazy.  

Californians are bringing the drought with them.

[jaster220]

On 1/14/2023 at 9:39 PM, jaster220 said:

Late spring again almost guarantee now. Have to pay for all this non-winter during winter.

bump

[tStacsh]

On 3/12/2023 at 11:05 PM, jaster220 said:

bump

Nothing warm, but in reality pretty normal Spring so far temp wise.  Right at average today and AN for a few days.  Only difference is is that it is more active and storms will bring in cold air behind each system.  But warmer ahead.  

[Tom]

Time to put this Thread to bed....this was the epitome of a winter season of "hav's and have not's"....many on the latter....time to close this chapter and move onto warmer weather.

[OttumwaSnomow]

I cant believe  my  location has  eeked out so far 27.5" of snow for the season!  Our company  did very well surprisingly.  Folks ask me almost daily how do you get thru with such a mild winter?  Lol!!! We broke all records. Mostly  due to above avg seperate  events.  We have easily  plowed or at minimal salted 14 to 16 seperate events!  Thanks to  a large increase  in commercial  accounts with either contracts or zero tolerance  for snow or ice we had a great winter season.  Im not going to think about what a 60" winter would've  brought my company? But our 15 yr avg is 12 plowable  events and ended ahead of that. Almost  every  event fell on a weekday early morning thus increasing  our work immensely.  I honestly  wonder if many spots south of my latitude  came anywhere  close to the amounts and frequency  of snow here in Ottumwa  Iowa? I frankly doubt i ever see so many event under 2" total  ever again here?  There's  wisdom in avoiding  residential  snow work, only 4 events for residentials, glad we dont depend on those. We have used 90 tons of salt and sand also. Commercial  is the way to go!

[Tom]

11 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I cant believe  my  location has  eeked out so far 27.5" of snow for the season!  Our company  did very well surprisingly.  Folks ask me almost daily how do you get thru with such a mild winter?  Lol!!! We broke all records. Mostly  due to above avg seperate  events.  We have easily  plowed or at minimal salted 14 to 16 seperate events!  Thanks to  a large increase  in commercial  accounts with either contracts or zero tolerance  for snow or ice we had a great winter season.  Im not going to think about what a 60" winter would've  brought my company? But our 15 yr avg is 12 plowable  events and ended ahead of that. Almost  every  event fell on a weekday early morning thus increasing  our work immensely.  I honestly  wonder if many spots south of my latitude  came anywhere  close to the amounts and frequency  of snow here in Ottumwa  Iowa? I frankly doubt i ever see so many event under 2" total  ever again here?  There's  wisdom in avoiding  residential  snow work, only 4 events for residentials, glad we dont depend on those. We have used 90 tons of salt and sand also. Commercial  is the way to go!

Make that $$$$....Glad you were able to Ca$h in on the winter/snow events that came through your region.  I had a gut feeling you would do good.  TBH, I really thought that more snow would fall instead of the mediocre events.  Nevertheless, when your running a business, its the revenue that counts!