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Discussion on Autumn 2022 and New Winter Outlooks Coming Out


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5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

The ORD Met who posts elsewhere a bit (mostly in the winter) said that he's cautiously optimistic that we will have a more work-able cold season. He cited numerous warm Novembers that were driven by a very +EPO. Those winters almost always went on to be warm duds. But our warmth now is -PNA driven which keeps the door open for a reversal as we get further down the road into actual cold months. It's not an ideal starting place (the flip was mid-Oct in 2013 and stuck for instance), but he's not totally down on the situation. He mentions the dominate HP over Alaska as another good trend/sign. I think this is pretty much what Tom, you, OKwx, etc have also been seeing in your LR disco's on the upcoming winter.  

It looks like the cold will be there for you this year.  The past few years that seems to be the challenge for your area with the lakes keeping your temps just a hair to warm.  My only concern for your area is how strong will the storms be when they make it to you.  The last few weeks there has been a bit of a trend for storms to weaken as they get around Michigan.  The first 2 weeks of the LRC or the time from Oct 6th-20th seemed very favorable to your area to get precip and some true Artic air.

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Seeing all those warm temp records from Nov '75 and hearing some comparisons with that winter as an analog. I remember it plainly as another snowy winter of my youth. That Nov also flipped somewhat from very mild during gun deer season mid-month to a sizeable snowstorm Thanksgiving weekend. The cold regime stuck around as did frequent and numerous snowstorms. One nice storm hit on Boxing Day and the Detroit region got hit good with a solid 9" depth at DTW on the 27th. It's amazing how well The Mitt was doing that early winter. Looking at a map most others in our Sub would not be a fan of a repeat.

Snow Weenie suicide alerts must've been in effect for the entire state of Iowa - sheesh!

image.png.a102ee9ba99fc6e9a5965fa6bd6a7773.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Seeing all those warm temp records from Nov '75 and hearing some comparisons with that winter as an analog. I remember it plainly as another snowy winter of my youth. That Nov also flipped somewhat from very mild during gun deer season mid-month to a sizeable snowstorm Thanksgiving weekend. The cold regime stuck around as did frequent and numerous snowstorms. One nice storm hit on Boxing Day and the Detroit region got hit good with a solid 9" depth at DTW on the 27th. It's amazing how well The Mitt was doing that early winter. Looking at a map most others in our Sub would not be a fan of a repeat.

Snow Weenie suicide alerts must've been in effect for the entire state of Iowa - sheesh!

image.png.a102ee9ba99fc6e9a5965fa6bd6a7773.png

Wow WTF that's like last Winter when anyone near the WI/IL border got completely screwed. NO THANKS.

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@gabel23 Gosh, would sure hope NOT 😮

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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17 hours ago, gabel23 said:

No way that this year can be as bad as last year for our area right? RIGHT??!?!!?!

 

 

2021-2022SnowDepartureRegion.jpg

2021-2022SnowRegion.jpg

I sure hope not, there was just a major "screw you" line from you to me last year, snow to the north,, snow to the south, none for me and you. Nothing like watching places with no snowmobile trails or ski resorts get tons of snow while your snowmobile sits parked because you're not getting anything.

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13 hours ago, Tom said:

The models did a great job in terms of snowfall amounts for the mountains out west.  The Sierra's got pummeled with many places reporting 20-40" of Snow and a few locals in the central Sierra's topping out near 50"!  Oh, and Park City, UT got hit with another Big Snow.

 Screen Shot 2022-11-10 at 3.26.12 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-10 at 3.26.55 AM.png

 

All that snow in the Siera Mntns has to be good news for Cali

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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You can't ask for a better way to start off the cold season across Canada and now into the Lower 48.  "Home Brewed" cold has made a statement and with the active parade of storm systems into the western U.S. it has laid down the Foundation for sustained cold air.  In year's past, I recall several times where we lacked the snow cover over the Prairies of SW Canada into the Upper MW.  Not this year.  The seasons 1st Blizzard has rocked the upper MW and has delivered quite the snowstorm for those folks.  Not a bad way to open up the season, ay?

This map doesn't cover the recent winter storm over the Upper MW...

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-11 at 3.24.41 AM.png

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

You can't ask for a better way to start off the cold season across Canada and now into the Lower 48.  "Home Brewed" cold has made a statement and with the active parade of storm systems into the western U.S. it has laid down the Foundation for sustained cold air.  In year's past, I recall several times where we lacked the snow cover over the Prairies of SW Canada into the Upper MW.  Not this year.  The seasons 1st Blizzard has rocked the upper MW and has delivered quite the snowstorm for those folks.  Not a bad way to open up the season, ay?

This map doesn't cover the recent winter storm over the Upper MW...

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-11 at 3.24.41 AM.png

 

Both the GFS and Euro showing an amplified phase 7 as we get towards the last week of Nov.  Looks like the phase 6 warm up will be brief.  This is exciting stuff with a - EPO and the other teleconnections hovering around neutral the MJO could really drive the pattern.

 GMON.png

combined_image.png

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Y'all ready???  Fresh and Hot Off the Press...I'm pleased to show you the latest JMA seasonal wx maps that open up Met Winter with a beautiful looking 500mb map.  Hello to a Massive -NAO Block...My goodness...West Coast ridge and High Lat blocking will unload the cold across the Eastern CONUS.

 

1.png

 

The model is showing the "corridor" of where the Cold Air will set up...right over nearly every member in our Sub...mind you, this global model has a hard time showing BN temps as do many others.

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 6.03.29 AM.png

Active N Stream and I'm sure there will be some S Stream thrown into the pattern....

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 6.03.23 AM.png

 

January...

 

2.png

 

Somewhat of a JAN Thaw??? Slight SER???

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 6.07.04 AM.png

 

Much more active pattern...

 

image.png

 

 

 

February...

 

3.png

 

Feb Thaw looks more stout....

 

 

image.png

 

 

 

 

image.png

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Y'all ready???  Fresh and Hot Off the Press...I'm pleased to show you the latest JMA seasonal wx maps that open up Met Winter with a beautiful looking 500mb map.  Hello to a Massive -NAO Block...My goodness...West Coast ridge and High Lat blocking will unload the cold across the Eastern CONUS.

 

1.png

 

The model is showing the "corridor" of where the Cold Air will set up...right over nearly every member in our Sub...mind you, this global model has a hard time showing BN temps as do many others.

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 6.03.29 AM.png

Active N Stream and I'm sure there will be some S Stream thrown into the pattern....

 

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 6.03.23 AM.png

 

January...

 

2.png

 

Somewhat of a JAN Thaw??? Slight SER???

Screen Shot 2022-11-14 at 6.07.04 AM.png

 

Much more active pattern...

 

image.png

 

 

 

February...

 

3.png

 

Feb Thaw looks more stout....

 

 

image.png

 

 

 

 

image.png

 

Fast start and then an ehhhh winter? Thats no good🤔

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

No, No, No…not at all…maybe for those farther south and East…IMO, those of you up north will likely see an Endless Winter.  Buckle up!

Looks like when it's coldest (Dec) it is also driest. More moist around my region later in winter as has been the theme for Idk how many years running now?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like when it's coldest (Dec) it is also driest. More moist around my region later in winter as has been the theme for Idk how many years running now?

I could see a CO Low or 2 in DEC to materialize based on the pattern that should evolve next month.  Clippers...Hybrids?  Those troughs coming off the PAC into the N Rockies will be a common theme and should also deliver the "goods".

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The closer we get to December the colder it looks.  The phase 6 MJO we are experiencing now will pull temperatures closer to normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the plains.  This warm up looks to be brief except for the plains may take a little longer to cool off.  However all models have the MJO going into phase 7 by the 25th.  Along with the MJO going back into a cold phase both the GEFS Ext and the Euro Weeklies show a negative AO, NAO, and has the EPO returning to negative territory.  Cold air with cross polar flow at times showed up early in this years LRC and this will likely show up again by week 2 or 3 of December maybe sooner.

JMAN.png

Amazing how similar the GEFS and Euro are even in the long range.

GMON.png

EMON.png

1668621600-123R9MWmQBcgrb2.png

1668621600-XctpnAuhVDggrb2.png

1668621600-ZT7HmJ88vvQgrb2.png

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On 11/14/2022 at 1:33 PM, Tom said:

I could see a CO Low or 2 in DEC to materialize based on the pattern that should evolve next month.  Clippers...Hybrids?  Those troughs coming off the PAC into the N Rockies will be a common theme and should also deliver the "goods".

We have a fellow "snow and cold fanatic" in Ryan Hall Y'all and I'm pretty sure he's in agreement with you on that bud!

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The closer we get to December the colder it looks.  The phase 6 MJO we are experiencing now will pull temperatures closer to normal in the middle of the country and above normal in the plains.  This warm up looks to be brief except for the plains may take a little longer to cool off.  However all models have the MJO going into phase 7 by the 25th.  Along with the MJO going back into a cold phase both the GEFS Ext and the Euro Weeklies show a negative AO, NAO, and has the EPO returning to negative territory.  Cold air with cross polar flow at times showed up early in this years LRC and this will likely show up again by week 2 or 3 of December maybe sooner.

JMAN.png

Amazing how similar the GEFS and Euro are even in the long range.

GMON.png

EMON.png

1668621600-123R9MWmQBcgrb2.png

1668621600-XctpnAuhVDggrb2.png

1668621600-ZT7HmJ88vvQgrb2.png

That looks really good Amigo. For The Lakes, we are NOT helped by too strongly negative AO or NAO. I can only remember one time that worked out back in 09-10 when the combo over-rode the mod-Nino and delivered a dbl-digit snowstorm we would normally never get in a Nino January. On the other hand, we can do very well if a -EPO takes control. It will over-ride even a very POS AO/NAO as we experienced in 13-14 the historic winter. Appreciate you posting all these data sets - keep 'em coming. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That looks really good Amigo. For The Lakes, we are NOT helped by too strongly negative AO or NAO. I can only remember one time that worked out back in 09-10 when the combo over-rode the mod-Nino and delivered a dbl-digit snowstorm we would normally never get in a Nino January. On the other hand, we can do very well if a -EPO takes control. It will over-ride even a very POS AO/NAO as we experienced in 13-14 the historic winter. Appreciate you posting all these data sets - keep 'em coming. 

Around here we almost have to have a negative AO and NAO to get a major snow storm. Being this far south I need the blocking and artic air to be close by.

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WOOD TV-8 in Grand Rapids released their winter outlook the other day just before getting bombed with the LES storm. Last year they busted hard. They were banking on a 2nd year Nina delivering since 20-21 was so paltry. This year they went way conservative -oops. I know it's only 1 week into the snow season, but what a way to begin a low-ball forecast, lol. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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20 minutes ago, GDR said:

Joe Bastardi is going all in on a cold snowy December. I guess when doesn’t he?

It's always 5 O-clock somewhere. It would be a rare month if no region east of the Rockies had a cold-n-snowy month of December so he's not wrong unless you qualify where exactly? And yes, he likes to go cold so no surprise. We have some in our Sub that are skilled at the LR stuff too so we don't need to look outside to other sources for that.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Speaking of the weeklies, quite a bit of blue showing up in December especially across the middle of the country. The -EPO signature looks to be a longstanding feature of this season's overall pattern.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-1668988800-1668988800-1672963200-40.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom-1668988800-1668988800-1672963200-40.gif

What's exciting about the Euro Weeklies is that it rarely sees cold until it's right on top of you and it is seeing some serious cold in the long range.  Look what the Control did for the next 46 days.

0d40d5_de2bd84e967244b39a44f4c015de7db6~mv2.png

Several times in October the pattern produced cross polar flow and as we are about to enter cycle 2 there is literally nothing to suggest that it won't do it again.  The MJO is headed out of the warm phase 6 that is producing our warm up we have now and headed to the cold phase 7 and then the even colder phase 8.  It may pull the hat trick and hit all 3 cold phases as some ensembles take it into phase 1 as well.

GMON.png

The EPO is about to tank again, as @hawkstwelveand @Tom have said this is a major staple of this years pattern.

ecmwf_ensemble_nhem_avg_epo_box_9118400.png

The AO and NAO are headed negative

1669140000-zsuPpkXIm8kgrb2.png

1669140000-Cx7NZvoWFxsgrb2.png

The combination of all of these teleconnections at the same time is a real rarity.  After years of warm Decembers in KC and many other places this will be way different.  Should be some major storms also, Nov 30th and Dec 7th for starters and I will stop there for now lol.  Enjoy the warm up while it last by the second week of December if will be a distant memory.  

 

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During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

During this past week I've seen 2 signs from nature indicating colder winter. A squirrel with a mouth full of grass to better insulate his nest with, and a huge flock of swans in V-formation which I have never witnessed in my life. To my knowledge, swans will winter over as long as they have some open water options. I think they migrate only when forced to by very harsh conditions.  

I saw the geese migrating down here in the desert of AZ about 2 weeks ago!  A whole bunch made a pit stop at the local pond. If they are coming down early, something may be brewing here also.

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Euro is showing the NAO almost dropping to -4 by Dec 4th.

1669291200-tX8FoW0iVb0grb2.png

1669291200-1Q7qlFLez4Ugrb2.png

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AO departure negative correlate in some fashion with how far displaced the PV is likely to be? In opposite, the more positive the AO, the more perfectly aligned to the North Pole is the PV.

Yes it is and a strong dip in the AO can dislodge the PV.

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  • 3 weeks later...
36 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hmmmm, this is trending in a + direction....co-sign???

image.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202301.gif

All I can say is we're way overdue for a good January. 9 years for most of SMI since one delivered true winter.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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