Brennan Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 That thing is a beast. Those crabbers are probably out there risking their lives in that garbage. 933mb low. Can you imagine? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I am pretty sure quite a bit of the snow I received was elevation dependent. I know it snowed in Bellingham, but nothing like it did at my parents location near Lake Whatcom. Whatever that set up was, I would be happy to have it again. I think with Maritime Polar details have to be perfect. We’ve had several MP airmasses in recent years, but most are either barely too warm, or they aren’t associated with enough moisture to leave more than an inch or two of wet snow that melts an hour later. The northwest side of town ended up with about a foot of snow in late January 2002. It was a pretty solid event city wide. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Those crabbers are probably out there risking their lives in that garbage. 933mb low. Can you imagine? Pretty calm in the center! Just keep the boat in the eye of the storm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Cliff mass just posted something new. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/powerful-drunken-storm-to-hit-northwest.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Pretty calm in the center! Just keep the boat in the eye of the storm. Great idea, except I don't think the crab hang out in the eye of the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Cliff mass just posted something new. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/powerful-drunken-storm-to-hit-northwest.html Cliff himself may be a bit inebriated there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Maybe the Saturday storm will be so drunk it comes in over central OR instead with snow for everyone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Cliff mass just posted something new. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/powerful-drunken-storm-to-hit-northwest.htmlYeah, 00z WRF shows a nice 985mb low near Forks or so and importantly it isn't weakening upon landfall.. You guys up in Puget Sound/northwest Interior need to keep an eye on this one. 00z ECMWF isn't great through HR 192. This run is nothing like the GFS or CMC. Model disagreement and no trend established beyond HR 120-144 continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 The northwest side of town ended up with about a foot of snow in late January 2002. It was a pretty solid event city wide.In town must have done better later in the event. I remember my Mom picking me up from Kulshan Middle School at about 4:30pm on Friday evening after KIDS NIGHT OUT (middle school dance) and it was mix rain/snow at the school. As we drove east it became mostly wet snow, and by the time we were home it was all snow and dumping. We had some family come over the next day to go sledding because there place in town barely received any snow, most of which had already melted during the day. I think the bulk of the snow came on Saturday Night though with probably a secondary low, which all of Whatcom County scored on. Anyways, loved that event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Even though there is still a persistent, deep cold pool east side/Columbia Basin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Yeah, 00z WRF shows a nice 985mb low near Forks or so and importantly it isn't weakening upon landfall.. You guys up in Puget Sound/northwest Interior need to keep an eye on this one. 00z ECMWF isn't great through HR 192. This run is nothing like the GFS or CMC. Model disagreement and no trend established beyond HR 120-144 continues.ECMWF is basically like it's 12 run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Even though there is still a persistent, deep cold pool east side/Columbia Basin.Just going to mention that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 No, youre not missing anything. He is messing with Jim. That, and looking to find any angle possible to downplay any chance of something exciting happening next week. Tim in a nutshell right there. But hey, it's what he enjoys... to each his own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Tim in a nutshell right there. But hey, it's what he enjoys... to each his own.You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment. And I was adding support for what Rob said was a good Canadian run. It looked like the 12Z ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Looks very nearly the same as what we saw during Thanksgiving week. A touch colder at 850s east side. That was plenty cold enough with the long duration icy cold east winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment.The very first initial post the maps didn't look the same.... or am I typing in my sleep again.... It's not worth bickering over for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Just going to mention that.Except for I'm pretty sure you are incapable of posting anything positive at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day.Agree. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Quit teasing me Rob. A deep cold pool east side. I'm in Redmond and last month's event over performed. Maybe another overachiever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Probably something like this... since the Canadian went in that direction. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gifThis image.... looks nothing like the Canadian, not at any point, ever.... not for years in fact... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment. And I was adding support for what Rob said was a good Canadian run. It looked like the 12Z ECMWF. It's comical that I can scroll through, see a positive comment from Jim, and just know that you will soon follow along with a typical Tim post. Never fails. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day.I agree overall, expect 00z CMC wasn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Agree. At the end of the Euro, it actually looks like the pattern is resetting again with heights building over the eastern Aleutians and the large-scale troughing moving quickly across the country. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Euro shows accumulating snows here on Tuesday night. Maybe a couple of inches, pretty much inline with what the WRF has been showing the past 4 runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment. And I was adding support for what Rob said was a good Canadian run. It looked like the 12Z ECMWF.Hey, I could be mistaken.... chalk it up to 1) I'm tired, sleep deprived, and when I sleep, I see computer models dancing in my head. Tha's all. Moving on.... 6z NAM in 35 minutes!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 It's comical that I can scroll through, see a positive comment from Jim, and just know that you will soon follow along with a typical Tim post. Never fails.I said the 00Z ECMWF would probably look like it's 12Z run. And it did. Same basic pattern. Looks like the November event for quite a few runs of the ECMWF. Not negative... just what it's showing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 I agree overall, expect 00z CMC wasn't. The 0z Canadian was definitely pretty funky after day 7, with the way it held back all that energy off the CA coast...unlikely solution, but you're right that it wasn't as progressive with the pattern as the Euro. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 00z GFS backed off on the 10mb stratospheric warming from Eurasia... not happening any time soon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 In town must have done better later in the event. I remember my Mom picking me up from Kulshan Middle School at about 4:30pm on Friday evening after KIDS NIGHT OUT (middle school dance) and it was mix rain/snow at the school. As we drove east it became mostly wet snow, and by the time we were home it was all snow and dumping. We had some family come over the next day to go sledding because there place in town barely received any snow, most of which had already melted during the day. I think the bulk of the snow came on Saturday Night though with probably a secondary low, which all of Whatcom County scored on. Anyways, loved that event. We picked up about 6 inches on Sunday and then another 6 or so with the overrunning event on Tues/Wed. Like you said, it was the most snow we had seen in several years, so it was pretty enjoyable. BLI did have a 28/17 day on the 28th, which wasn't too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Hey, I could be mistaken.... chalk it up to 1) I'm tired, sleep deprived, and when I sleep, I see computer models dancing in my head. Tha's all. Moving on.... 6z NAM in 35 minutes!!!Sometimes we lose sight of the big picture in the details. The ECMWF has been quite consistent. Good shot of cold air and probably offshore flow. Next week looks enjoyable. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 00z ECMWF has Bering Low #1 at 927mb. In my opinion that SHOULD promote a stronger, amplified ridge than models are currently grasping. We'll see....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 18z GFS high temp for Chirstmas: 2000z GFS high temp for Christmas: 50Consistently inconsistent 1 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 00z GFS backed off on the 10mb stratospheric warming from Eurasia... not happening any time soonSSW events are something I have limited knowledge of. What would promote this to occur and models to bring it back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Isn't the air mass too chilly for a good windstorm? How many windstorms happen with an 850mb temp of -2C in Oregon and in SW BC. There is no thermal gradient and its snowing down to 2,000 feet. 1-13-1950 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Quit teasing me Rob. A deep cold pool east side. I'm in Redmond and last month's event over performed. Maybe another overachiever.Thought the same thing when he said it looks like thanksgiving week. I'll gladly take that again. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Thought the same thing when he said it looks like thanksgiving week. I'll gladly take that again.If you can manage 4" of snow or so widespread, who knows..... I'd say right now it won't be as bitterly cold, no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 We picked up about 6 inches on Sunday and then another 6 or so with the overrunning event on Tues/Wed. Like you said, it was the most snow we had seen in several years, so it was pretty enjoyable. BLI did have a 28/17 day on the 28th, which wasn't too bad.I will have to dig up my unofficial official records. Now that I rethink it, Sunday was the snowiest day and Monday was the cold and clear day (25-19 @ home, 28-17 @airport). Great event. I’m dreaming of a White Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 Strong frontal passage through the Eugene area. Thunder and W-SW wind gusts 43-51mph! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2015 Report Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z GFSRidge looks decent, but it's not strong and quickly flattens. Good for the higher elevations and mountains, but not cold enough for snow for us. All I see is cool onshore flow at times. Not a very good run 500mb pattern progression speaking. It is doubtful we would even develop a Columbia Basin cold pool with this pattern. Onto 12z.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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