jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 6z gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 It did move SE just a hair with the 06 GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Gfs has stayed firm. Nws Hastings is starting to sound concerned about a long duration event but still waiting for the event to draw nearer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 1 in SE NEB and over a foot in central NEB lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 The major question going forward seems to be whether this pattern relaxation is transient or a step down to a more wintery pattern.... The CFS has to strikeout at some point right??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 where can i find the euro parallel runs ? on facebook Jim said the parallel run of the euro clocks parts of eastern nebraska snow wise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 where can i find the euro parallel runs ? on facebook Jim said the parallel run of the euro clocks parts of eastern nebraska snow wise I am only aware of it being on Wx Bell...here you go... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I am only aware of it being on Wx Bell...here you go...that would sure Brighten up some of the moods of you Nebraska folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Winter officially began at 10:48 CST time last night but it doesn't look and feel like Winter out there...YET. I've done some digging and correlations are transpiring at both 10mb & 30mb. Notice current placement of HP over Eurasia at 10mb below... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f00.png By Day 10 it is shifting eastward elongating the PV... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.png Now, take a look at the warming beginning to show up in eastern Eurasia (current location of HP) on the 10mb temp animation...something is starting to blossom...its def poking northward towards the Pole and is likely the energy transfer which AER suggested would happen this week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gifIt's also beginning to happen at 30mb... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif Certainly looks like things are lining up towards a different pattern as we approach January. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Started a separate thread for the post-Christmas storm threat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 That one may finally punch through the vortex. Already appears to be further north than the one in late November. Here's hoping it's successful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z Euro showing the next storm on the horizon which should track farther SE that the first one. This next system may be an Apps runner or lower lakes cutter. Both 30-day cycle/LRC had a very dynamic storm system coming out of the 4 corners region. 30-day cycle suggest a Gulf system emerging (remnants of Hurricane Sandra scenario) and tracking due NNE. Plenty cold air available this time around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 12z GEFS/EPS continue to blow torch NW NAMER Week 1-2...that's more like it... Day 9...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122212/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10.png Day 10...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122212/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png Expect it to trend colder as we get closer in the lower 48. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Chicago AFD at least mentioning the possibility of some snow at the beginning and end of this system. SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY QUIET DAY OVER THE NORTHERNHALF OF THE REGION...WITH THE RAIN TEMPORARILY SHIFTING SOUTH.HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWEST UPPER SYSTEM...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACELOW...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BYMONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES INWHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE. HOWEVER...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BEGIN TOSPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY BYLATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS OVER THEREGION...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION MAY ONSET AS A WINTER MIXLATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TOLIFT BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO THE PRECIP SHOULDCHANGE TO RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTOMONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD ENDAS A PERIOD OF -SN UNDER THE COLD UPPER LOW EARLY ON TUESDAY.HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF CONDITIONS WILL GET COLD ENOUGHFOR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.I created a thread for this storm...take a gander Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I created a thread for this storm...take a ganderWhoops. Thought I was in that thread. I'll move it. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Winter officially began at 10:48 CST time last night but it doesn't look and feel like Winter out there...YET. I've done some digging and correlations are transpiring at both 10mb & 30mb. Notice current placement of HP over Eurasia at 10mb below... By Day 10 it is shifting eastward elongating the PV... Now, take a look at the warming beginning to show up in eastern Eurasia (current location of HP) on the 10mb temp animation...something is starting to blossom...its def poking northward towards the Pole and is likely the energy transfer which AER suggested would happen this week. It's also beginning to happen at 30mb... Certainly looks like things are lining up towards a different pattern as we approach January. Heading straight north - good sign. Big difference! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Literally almost a total flip. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Its a boring garbage pattern going forward. Sure temps are colder but what are we gonna gain from it? Its NW flow and seasonable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Its a boring garbage pattern going forward. Sure temps are colder but what are we gonna gain from it? Its NW flow and seasonableIce. If I can't sled at least let me ice fish. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ice. If I can't sled at least let me ice fish.Should be enough to get you that. The beginning of the new year should do it for you. End of the ensembles not as pretty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Should be enough to get you that. The beginning of the new year should do it for you. End of the ensembles not as prettyYou're getting just as bad as the other two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 You're getting just as bad as the other twoAm I telling the truth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 You're getting just as bad as the other twocan someone ban this jokester? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Not seeing the full scale pattern change in the long range. Actually looks rather mild and boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Not seeing the full scale pattern change in the long range. Actually looks rather mild and boring.It's possible that it could take til early-mid January to actually begin to bear fruit, so to speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Its a boring garbage pattern going forward. Sure temps are colder but what are we gonna gain from it? Its NW flow and seasonable Clippers I guess. Maybe not better for your area, but better down this way. I wish everything could just slide more east, then these cutters could actually hook towards Quebec instead of western Ontario. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 EURO showing that Scandinavian Ridge knifing into the North Pole in 6 days. Gets attacked from the Russia side then. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 Stepping down to more seasonable levels. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hckyplayer8 Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 Got 4" yesterday with 9" OTG. Post Christmas storm shifted North on the Euro after the GFS abandoned the Northern precio look. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 pattern change looks transient, and barely brings below normal temps for much of the subforum... pretty sure we'll start torching hard again mid-Janaury. Trust me, we're going to feel the effects of this record breaking el nino for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 You're getting just as bad as the other twoI always tell the truth. Can't lie when I say this pattern isn't going to change that easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 I always tell the truth. Can't lie when I say this pattern isn't going to change that easily.High amplitude MJO phases 7-8, -AO and +PNA won't change the pattern? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 pattern change looks transient, and barely brings below normal temps for much of the subforum... pretty sure we'll start torching hard again mid-Janaury. Trust me, we're going to feel the effects of this record breaking el nino for a while. Very unlikely for any extended period of time with the polar vortex weakening now. In 3-4 weeks will be seasonable or below normal. Very strong amount of warming taking place in eastern Asia right now and it's heading straight towards the polar regions. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 I always tell the truth. Can't lie when I say this pattern isn't going to change that easily. What makes you think it isn't going to change??? You think we will be above normal to open January??? I just had to put this quote up...haha...quote from Tony Montana from the movie Scarface... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z GEFS continue to torch NW NAMER as we open up January...lower 48 in the fridge...both EPS/GEFS tank the EPO with a jet cutting underneath into So Cal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 That's looking more like winter now buddy! :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 That jet coming out Asia is crazy fast. Can see the split jet easily on this map. GEFS showing the polar blocking/-AO nicely. +AO looks to give up about the 3rd/4th. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 That jet coming out Asia is crazy fast. Can see the split jet easily on this map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122412/gfs_uv250_nhem_49.pngGEFS showing the polar blocking/-AO nicely. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png +AO looks to give up about the 3rd/4th. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122412/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_43.png It seems like all the models are trending towards a -AO pattern sometime during the first week of January and a sweet Split Flow pattern in the NE PAC. pattern change looks transient, and barely brings below normal temps for much of the subforum... pretty sure we'll start torching hard again mid-Janaury. Trust me, we're going to feel the effects of this record breaking el nino for a while.Doubtful...I don't see any indication of that happening as convection erupts in the central Pacific, PV is weakened, blocking over the Pole and the EPO tanking. Way too many indicators on the table that would suggest otherwise. IMO, wishful thinking. I was about 10 days to early with the colder/stormier pattern evolving. Oh well. Nobody is perfect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 Tanking epo + +pna. Oh exciting... Maybe if you like in the lake effect belts.. it will get colder but stormier? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 25, 2015 Report Share Posted December 25, 2015 It seems like all the models are trending towards a -AO pattern sometime during the first week of January and a sweet Split Flow pattern in the NE PAC. Doubtful...I don't see any indication of that happening as convection erupts in the central Pacific, PV is weakened, blocking over the Pole and the EPO tanking. Way too many indicators on the table that would suggest otherwise. IMO, wishful thinking. I was about 10 days to early with the colder/stormier pattern evolving. Oh well. Nobody is perfect.10 days is better than 20 days too early like I was. Ruined my December forecast by a large margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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