Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[westMJim]

not really the right place for this but its the best place to post it.

The CPC came out with their updated seasonal long range guess (outlook) yesterday a few of their ideas are somewhat interesting. First the people at the CPC are guessing that spring will have a higher percentage of being warmer and dryer in our area

Spring CPC guess

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

and that this summer with have a higher percentage of being warmer then average for the whole US

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

Not sure if that can happen I have not seen where the whole country was above average for a whole month before. I would take that guess with a grain of salt.

 

 

The CPC came out with their updated seasonal long range guess (outlook) yesterday a few of their ideas are somewhat interesting. First the people at the CPC are guessing that spring will have a higher percentage of being warmer and dryer in our area

Spring CPC guess

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

and that this summer with have a higher percentage of being warmer then average for the whole US

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

Not sure if that can happen I have not seen where the whole country was above average for a whole month before. I would take that guess with a grain of salt.

 

 

Now for the cold and snow lovers who are suffering from depression this winter here is some thing to brighten up your day.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4

and

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=11

I also have never seen that outlook from the CPC a year out before. 

[Tony]

12z looks active in the long range but we all know how that has worked out this winter. I could get used to the weather we are having today for sure!

[Tony]

What the heck..might as well.

[Money]

Gfs lol

[Tony]

•  

  Gfs lol

   

  Has the same idea as the Para

[NEJeremy]

12z looks active in the long range but we all know how that has worked out this winter. I could get used to the weather we are having today for sure!

Yeah it is! I counted no less than 9 systems on the 12Z GFS over the 384 hour period. 

[hlcater]

18z GFS looks very much like the euro with a system bringing snow from STL to Chicagohttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160219/18Z/f138/acckucherasnowconus.png

[Geos]

GFS storm still there, just a bit east.

 

[gosaints]

Tom shouldnt have left that thing has eyes on chicago

[GDR]

That thing can keep pushing east! Let's go spring

[jaster220]

That thing can keep pushing east! Let's go spring

 

I get your point after this year, but hard to root against a chance at a major system any time, especially in Feb.

[Hawkeye]

If anyone over to the east gets decent snow from next week's system, it should be a real slopfest.  Today's GFS and Euro show surface temps well into the 30s under the defo zone.  I'll gladly miss more slop.

[MarcusBeier]

Can we start a thread? Its my final Snow storm before I move to Hurricane central for ever

[gosaints]

Snow pack no longer a pack.  Nice to see the GFS back off on the days and days or cryptic cold as expected

[Tom]

Models are starting to pick up on a late month juiced up Clipper riding an arctic boundary which heads south out of Canada around the 28th/29th.  Last night's Euro Para was showing this and the GFS is now seeing it also.  Could be a wintry finish to the month near the Lakes/Midwest to what has been a bi-polar month of extremes.

[Tom]

The idea that Winter will continue through at least mid March is still on track.  With a solid -AO pattern developing and a neutral EPO/NAO, I don't see any warm spells on the horizon, maybe in the Plains at first.

Here are some models giving us a glance of what may be expected...

 

 

 

 

As is typical in El Nino years, the coldest months relative to average are in March.  Next month may end up being the snowiest month overall for this entire season.l

[Tom]

12z GGEM/GFS in agreement with a juiced up Clipper late this weekend...yet another system on it's heels a couple days later.  If things line up just right, someone in the Midwest/Lakes could be buried.  12z GFS is farther south with the 3rd storm in early March.  Let the storm train begin!

[gosaints]

Every clipper has lost juice as we get closer this winter.  Hopefully the turnaround is near

[Hawkeye]

Euro has a nice warm tongue up into Iowa this weekend with 60 degrees here both days, but the GFS/CMC are not nearly as bullish, especially for Sunday.

[NEJeremy]

February has been a complete dud around here except for the Groundhog's Day storm. If not for that storm we'd be at less than an inch of snow for the month and 5 degrees above average for temps. Doesn't look like that will change before the end either.

[Geos]

Looking like March will roar in like a lion this year. Like a lion caked in snow, lol.

[Tom]

EPS showing another potential major system developing in the same region as the current storm (near Texarkana) then cutting up through the OV/Lakes Day 9-10...pattern is becoming pretty active in the foreseeable future.  The plains have their chances of snowfall Week 1-2.

[Tom]

Looking like March will roar in like a lion this year. Like a lion caked in snow, lol.

Yup, I had a good idea it would.  The LRC suggests the Nov 21st storm to repeat right around March 1st-3rd.   Models are def showing something big in that range.

[hlcater]

The 00z GFS has Michigan getting absolutely hammered over the next 240hrs

[Geos]

One storm after another on the GFS. 

 

GGEM has the 29th storm.

[Tom]

Pattern is loaded with storms as we head into March.  March will roar in like a Lion this year and probably won't let go for an extended period.   LRC's active and wet pattern will be cycling back through and some exciting weather on the horizon.  GEFS/EPS look cold/stormy from the Rockies towards the Lakes.  There are going to be some juicy systems and with blocking over the top, someone is going to see some hefty snow fall totals.  El Nino's are known to have some back-loaded winter storms and this one is heading that way.

[hlcater]

Michigan looks to be the hot spot at least on the GFS

[Geos]

[gosaints]

Gonna be classic watching the models the next 2 weeks. Everything on the table from snow to ice to thunderstorms...  Pretty classic march nino

[Niko]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022312/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

Michigan is absolutely crushed!!!! Especially, SEMI.

[Money]

zzzzz

[Troop]

zzzzz

 

Always the optimist you are, you seem to be indicating a disbelief in the weather pattern described by Tom and others above.  Meterologically, could you offer anything to the message board to support the ho-hum, yet articulate, post you offered us?

[midwest buildit]

i want to go to the advanced severe weather seminar. its march 13. but i also plow snow. is only $40, but non refundable after the 24th. lol

 

i know its a ways out. but hows that weekend looking. lol. i hate to register and not show up.

[hlcater]

Leave it to eastern IA to be in the sweet spot on this GFS. The storm in question is still 8 days away and if I've learned anything it's to not worry about track until 2-3 days before. At least it shows a pretty decent storm. Could be a fun one to track if trends continue.

[Geos]

i want to go to the advanced severe weather seminar. its march 13. but i also plow snow. is only $40, but non refundable after the 24th. lol

 

i know its a ways out. but hows that weekend looking. lol. i hate to register and not show up.

 

March 13! That's a ways out. Mid March can go a lot of different ways for weather. Got a feeling winter might hang around well into the month though.

[midwest buildit]

thats what im afraid of. lol 

 

why do they always do this stuff during snow season...

[Geos]

thats what im afraid of. lol 

 

why do they always do this stuff during snow season...

 

Is that the Fermi Lab one?

They usually do that in April.

[midwest buildit]

this one.....

[Geos]

this one.....

 

Nice.

The chances of a snowstorm on the 13th is slim probably. I wouldn't sweat it.

[Torchtastic]

nice

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022400/ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022400/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png