12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Money]

Shows some places in N. IL with freezing rain for 5-6+ hours. That's not good. 

[GDR]

8 inches of sleet holy cow!

[gosaints]

Shows some places in N. IL with freezing rain for 5-6+ hours. That's not good.

Only thing that might save them its gonna rain so hard accretion might be hard

[Geos]

When does this become more now casting than looking at models?

 

I would after midnight. Except maybe keep on looking at the RAP and HRRR for awhile yet..

[gabel23]

It's currently 10 degrees in Columbus and the NWS is predicting a low of 8. I don't recall seeing this amount of cold air a couple of days ago. It will not take much to fluff up snow totals tomorrow, that really is my only hope of seeing anything significant.I'm just hoping things can hold serve and I'll gladly take 3-5" maybe more if things come together just right.....

[Geos]

I like how the HRRR actually has soundings available now.

 

Here is Madison's sounding at HR 18

 

 

Snow, just.

 

Milwaukee:

 

 

Sleet. Not very warm at 700mb.

 

Thanks for posting the RGEM maps Money. Almost all frozen up to the dry slot here.

[Money]

No problem.

 

Cobb Data for NAM is in.

 

19.9 for krst with temps never getting above 25.0 F

 

1.78 QPF

 

For Oshkosh it has 1.39 QPF. 5.5 IN of snow and over 1.5 in of Sleet 

 

Madison: 3.6 IN snow: 1.66 QPF the rest sleet 

[Money]

KORD:

 

151228/1300Z  13  07018KT  31.4F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.010    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.01    0| 21| 79

151228/1400Z  14  08019KT  31.0F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.03|| 0.044    0:1|  0.0|| 0.04|| 0.03|| 0.05    0| 45| 55

151228/1500Z  15  07021KT  30.6F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.10|| 0.120    0:1|  0.0|| 0.10|| 0.13|| 0.17    0| 23| 77

151228/1600Z  16  07020KT  31.2F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.14|| 0.170    0:1|  0.0|| 0.18|| 0.27|| 0.34    0| 23| 77

151228/1700Z  17  07018KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.167    0:1|  0.0|| 0.18|| 0.44|| 0.51    0|  5| 95

151228/1800Z  18  07019KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083    0:1|  0.0|| 0.18|| 0.44|| 0.59    0|  0|100

 

KCID:

 

0.72 QPF FZR, 1.48 QPF Sleet, 3.2 IN SN

[East Dubzz]

So how exactly do inches of sleet add up? Like how much QPF equals an inch of sleep? I've never really dealt with this much before..

[Geos]

So how exactly do inches of sleet add up? Like how much QPF equals an inch of sleep? I've never really dealt with this much before..

 

3:1

[gosaints]

So how exactly do inches of sleet add up? Like how much QPF equals an inch of sleep? I've never really dealt with this much before..

3:1 is a good starting point

[East Dubzz]

Bleh. Boring.

[hlcater]

HRRR needs to throw out the sleet

[Geos]

Looks like the surface low pressure is just SW of Shreveport. On the verge of crossing into LA.

 

Wish this storm was just straight snow or rain. Tracking a rain/snow line is one thing, but trying to track a snow/sleet line, sleet/freezing rain line, and a freezing rain/rain line is complicated.

[Money]

12+ amounts showing up in SW WI on gfs

[hlcater]

yup, appears to have backed off on sleet 

[gosaints]

Looks like the surface low pressure is just SW of Shreveport.

 

Wish this storm was just straight snow or rain. Tracking a rain/snow line is one thing, but trying to track a snow/sleet line, sleet/freezing rain line, and a freezing rain/rain line is complicated.

The writing seems to on the wall for the way left tracks of old nam/euro runs.

 

Only question is the trajectory of the low once into mo/il and thermals...

[thomas9824]

The precip shield is currently just south of kc metropolitan area. Let us know what happens all the kc members out there!

Just freezing rain mixed with sleet right now in kc

[Money]

Tracks right over Chicago again just like rgem

[gosaints]

12+ amounts showing up in SW WI on gfs

I cant imagine having to write a forecast for madison

[gosaints]

12+ amounts showing up in SW WI on gfs

I think you are golden money. People south of you are just going to have to wait to see what falls out of the sky

[Money]

I cant imagine having to write a forecast for madison

The amount of qpf forecasted is insane and their will be some crazy amounts if places stay all snow

 

Rgem spitting out 1.25 qpf of fzr in NW IL

[gosaints]

The amount of qpf forecasted is insane and their will be some crazy amounts if places stay all snow

 

Rgem spitting out 1.25 qpf of fzr in NW IL

Been a long time since we have had a good cutter to track...

[East Dubzz]

Go GFS

[hlcater]

im team GFS too

[Money]

Been a long time since we have had a good cutter to track...

Seriously though what would you do if you were mke and had to forecast this? Stays mostly snow and you are looking at 12+ in some places with 40 mph gusts. Stays mostly sleet and it's just a few inches of snow

[Geos]

I cant imagine having to write a forecast for madison

 

I know - what do you say to the people!? Anywhere between 2-15" of snow and/or sleet and maybe some freezing rain or just snow...

GFS bulls eye with the snowfall over Galena, IL.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Seriously though what would you do if you were mke and had to forecast this? Stays mostly snow and you are looking at 12+ in some places with 40 mph gusts. Stays mostly sleet and it's just a few inches of snow

 

You stay with Winter Storm Warnings due to uncertainty but upgrade to Blizzard Warnings if it's needed.

[Money]

I wouldn't blame them if they said 2-15 inches of snow lol

 

Rgem has over 1.25 qpf snow and 0.25-0.50 qpf sleet on south central WI

[Geos]

The writing seems to on the wall for the way left tracks of old nam/euro runs.

 

Only question is the trajectory of the low once into mo/il and thermals...

 

The GFS low pressure at midnight is NNW of where the center of the low is now. So unless the low backs up a little and then north, GFS is slightly too far west.

[WBadgersW]

Man, this snow/mix line tomorrow is going to be killer. Whoever are just North of it might get surprised.

[gosaints]

Seriously though what would you do if you were mke and had to forecast this? Stays mostly snow and you are looking at 12+ in some places with 40 mph gusts. Stays mostly sleet and it's just a few inches of snow

I have no clue really. They have to be pulling there hair out. I have no idea what is going to happen.

[ToastedRavs]

So many conflicting models. Like the hrrr, hate the GFS, hate the NAM, love the NAM, like the UK... Etc....holy good gracious... Just hurry up and arrive so we can all stop looking at models and enjoy whatever comes our way. Ugh!

[james1976]

The GFS low pressure at midnight is NNW of where the center of the low is now. So unless the low backs up a little and then north, GFS is slightly too far west.

Wasnt the NAM showing this wobble?

[Money]

I have no clue really. They have to be pulling there hair out. I have no idea what is going to happen.

You know the average joe is going to ***** either way no matter what happens not knowing how hard this job actually is with storms like these

[NH4NU]

Flowers says latest short range models bring significant dry air into central Iowa. Link to video for explanation https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/?fref=nf 

[gosaints]

You know the average joe is going to ***** either way no matter what happens not knowing how hard this job actually is with storms like these

Yep

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Man, this snow/mix line tomorrow is going to be killer. Whoever are just North of it might get surprised.

 

Do you remember February 20, 2011's storm?  That was a nailbiter where I94 was the dividing line between snow and mixed precipitation, with rain just south of that I believe.  Maybe that's a best case scenario where we luck out.

[Geos]

I know some of this is sleet, but geezzz.

 

[ToastedRavs]

Flowers says latest short range models bring significant dry air into central Iowa. Link to video for explanation https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersKmtvMeteorologist/?fref=nf

 

I saw that. He used the 0z run. The 1z doesn't bring it in. Ugh...it's crazy how things switch...hour to hour. I think I am on to now casting after the Euro. Good luck over there...enjoy it!