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1/9-1/10 Panhandler

jaster220

By jaster220
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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WWA issued...I'll take what I can get before the cold snap hits

 

 

 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* SNOW AMOUNTS...STORM TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE QUICKLY
ON ROAD SURFACES AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES...
IMPACTING TRAVEL. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL
FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 

 

 

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=11302

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Jaycee
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jaster220
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Couple looks at 12z Euro - dynamic system - can't say "zzzzz-fest"   Which model will be 1st to sniff cold air coming into play??        

Geos
Geos

Hopefully that Greenland high and heights in eastern CA will be a tad stronger this weekend.   Wouldn't be mind seeing an eastward track so that NW IN and the City of Chicago closer to the lake could

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Temps starting to drop...currently at 35F with a west wind...looks like this storm has sped up and snow will commence roughly around 1:00pm.

 

Latest HRRR suggest 3-5" for Cook/DuPage county, 2-4 for Lake county...pretty sharp cut-off...at least the southern burbs finally get a decent snow event.  I know there are some members on here that haven't seen any snow so far this season.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Temps starting to drop...currently at 35F with a west wind...looks like this storm has sped up and snow will commence roughly around 1:00pm.

 

Latest HRRR suggest 3-5" for Cook/DuPage county, 2-4 for Lake county...pretty sharp cut-off...at least the southern burbs finally get a decent snow event.  I know there are some members on here that haven't seen any snow so far this season.

 

Well, looking like last minute trends on this one kinda went the opposite of November's strong storm, and even the Dec mix storm. Such a shame it turned into another lame vs from what the models were portraying. Don't know what to think of this going forward in the bigger picture. That map gives mby a flurry or two, yesterday it was hopeful this could really ramp up and surprise many in a great way. Even last night RPM had 8+ :wacko:

 

This is more like typical Nino climo in the S. Lakes, fringe snows, mostly melty wx.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
Posted

Ok Here is the GR NWS summary of the potential upcoming system.

 http://www.weather.gov/grr/AccumulatingSnowfallSaturdayintoSunday

Looks like the lake effect should start Sunday night and could run thru all of next week.  For the snow contest will have to figure out when the system snow stops and the lake effect starts. 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Well, looking like last minute trends on this one kinda went the opposite of November's strong storm, and even the Dec mix storm. Such a shame it turned into another lame vs from what the models were portraying. Don't know what to think of this going forward in the bigger picture. That map gives mby a flurry or two, yesterday it was hopeful this could really ramp up and surprise many in a great way. Even last night RPM had 8+ :wacko:

 

This is more like typical Nino climo in the S. Lakes, fringe snows, mostly melty wx.

I think you'll do just fine...6-8" is a lock for you, then the added bonus LES which will fluff up totals...

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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I think you'll do just fine...6-8" is a lock for you, then the added bonus LES which will fluff up totals...

 

K, what'd I miss here? None of your maps show decent snow here. My WFO decided storm cancel for my county. Where are you pulling that amount from. That's normally worth a headline around mby away from the lake. Do tell.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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K, what'd I miss here? None of your maps show decent snow here. My WFO decided storm cancel for my county. Where are you pulling that amount from. That's normally worth a headline around mby away from the lake. Do tell.

Dang, for some reason I thought you lived closer to the lake.  At second glance, you may be a bit to far east where the rain/snow will be an issue.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Dang, for some reason I thought you lived closer to the lake.  At second glance, you may be a bit to far east where the rain/snow will be an issue.

 

Unfortunately I don't. Looks like VanBuren Cnty will do well. They're two counties west of me. I need to update my location. As of yesterday, I'm not working along the shoreline in St. Joseph. Just when it looks like they'll be getting buried by LES :(

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Posted

HRRR really favoring NE IL now and more into SE WI.

 

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160109/1500Z/f009/crefptypemw.png

 

Wow, should a second band coming up from the south.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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HRRR really favoring NE IL now and more into SE WI.

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160109/1500Z/f009/crefptypemw.png

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160109/1500Z/f009/crefptypemw.png

Indeed, it's looking wetter for NE IL actually...brings the .30qpf line up to Kenosha, WI...latest run is even painting .40qpf close to ORD

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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The HRRR nailed the last storm. Right? 

 

It did really good on the track and the precipitation types.

I would give it quite a bit of credit.

 

That precip in central IL is heading NNE.

 

NMM has been pushing that 0.50" area NW ever so steadily.

 

 

ARW not quite as far back.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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Need temps to drop a few more degrees so the snow can accumulate better.  Sitting at 36F ATM.

 

Same here, the overnight low was supposed to be upper 20s, so that tells me the arctic front is not progressing as far east as expected so perhaps that's why the models are back to trending a bit NW.  I didn't buy into these NW shifts at first, but it's certainly plausible.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Need temps to drop a few more degrees so the snow can accumulate better.  Sitting at 36F ATM.

 

Dewpoint down to 33° here. Mid 20s feeding into far western IL now.

Still near 40° in NW IN...

 

That wave last night didn't have the power to swing the cold air very far in back of itself.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Dewpoint down to 33° here. Mid 20s feeding into far western IL now.

Still near 40° in NW IN.

If that persists, LOT may consider changing their mind with the WSW in NW IN....

 

Same here, the overnight low was supposed to be upper 20s, so that tells me the arctic front is not progressing as far east as expected so perhaps that's why the models are back to trending a bit NW.  I didn't buy into these NW shifts at first, but it's certainly plausible.

I was skeptical as well, but now it may be in fact creeping farther NW.  Going to be some heavy wet snows with lower ratios front end, maybe a little better fluff on the back side.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Starting to snow at home now. 34°.

 

1/4 mile visibility in Quincy right now.

 

Macomb camera definitely backing up that area claim.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted

31.0 here in Madison

 

Finally creeping down here.

Snow has kicked in a bit better.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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