jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 snow 192 (still snowing Wisconsin./Minn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 slower... thats a nice trough.. thats about all that matters in this timeframe. alot to happen before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 GFS keeps ejecting too early 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 GFS keeps ejecting too earlySeasonally that outcome has been much more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160126/12Z/f198/acckucherasnowmw.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ugh come come south just a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 qpfDoes not look right to me. There seems to be alot more qpf around then what that shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_27.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_27.pngNow that is more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 .gem-looks funny to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.pngIs that (L) in MO being shown a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 GGEM is out to lunch. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 The battle between Jim Flowers and Gary Lezak...haha...Here is Gary Lezak's take... Wow, hes showing maps already! It looks like the GFS came back SE on this run. Got 4-5" to show for it. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Is that (L) in MO being shown a clipperno, broken energy looks like from a low earlier in the nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 GGEM is out to lunch.The GEM handles the northern stream better than most models and there is a big HP with this setup but who really knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Not as much qpf as the GFS but not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Let's see the GFS go South a bit and the GEM go North a bit. That would be perfect. Its going to be a week of model watching, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Is that (L) in MO being shown a clipper No it comes out of CO. It would be better to have the energy come out as one piece and just have one lead wave that is strong enough to pull the baroclinic zone far enough south. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Interesting with the GGEM and GFS jet stream speeds, the more SE solution has the jet stream as stronger. 2 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 My ears may start perking back up in a day or 2 if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gonna be alot of people in here cheering for a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 #ElNino look on the GGEM jet stream...monster trough...although, its having problems losing the energy later in the run. GFS phases a nice storm but still doesn't dig this storm. So far I've seen the LRC prove that a storm will exist. Next thing I was waiting for was the trowal signature which is becoming evident today on both the GGEM/GFS thus far. The last item on the check list is the track. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gonna be alot of people in here cheering for a strung out mess. ...and bitching when then overdone qpf on these models don't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 ...and bitching when then overdone qpf on these models don't verify.The same thing was said in November... It seems like moisture hasn't really been a issue with storms this year, that is when we do get storms. Why do you think its overdone? Edit* I'm not saying the 20+" amount will verify, but this storm has the potential to drop 12+" in some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'm just not liking the fact we are sitting in a sweet spot with a week to go. Although I'm fine with the GFS shifting to the southeast because that would put me further into the sweet spot for snow. Just no major shift please!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 ...and bitching when then overdone qpf on these models don't verify.You mean like on December 26th? Lol. Jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Moisture has not been a problem this winter around here. Even the clipper earlier in the month over performed. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 The same thing was said in November... It seems like moisture hasn't really been a issue with storms this year, that is when we do get storms. Why do you think its overdone? Edit* I'm not saying the 20+" amount will verify, but this storm has the potential to drop 12+" in some locations. Well, there you go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 (will auto update)http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 That low in TX is moving faster on this run, then the 12z run yesterday. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 Well, there you go....I don't think anybody here thinks they are getting 20+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 will auto update http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188 12Z JAN26 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 06Z 02-FEB -0.5 -2.8 1004 91 95 0.16 544 541 mix bag? (850 looks ok,k but the THK is above the 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188 12Z JAN26 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 06Z 02-FEB -0.5 -2.8 1004 91 95 0.16 544 541 mix bag? Doubt it. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2016 Report Share Posted January 26, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160126/12Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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