GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[CentralNebWeather]

I saw that. He is singing in most of his videos. Guy loves weather

[Snowlover76]

who is Jim Flowers? 

[CentralNebWeather]

Channel 3 in Omaha meteorologist. On his Facebook page he posts a lot of videos about storms. Seems like a great guy. I don't get that station but I look at Facebook for his updates

[Snowlover76]

Channel 3 in Omaha meteorologist. On his Facebook page he posts a lot of videos about storms. Seems like a great guy. I don't get that station but I look at Facebook for his updates

he's good 

[Madtown]

Checking in after sawing wood all day. Looks like all models look decent for here except the GFS. Any other year I would be feeling good about that. Not th is year though. Personally feelit will be a track Chicago and the tip of Lake Michigan.

[ToastedRavs]

998 on Nam at 31 hours.  Located near Grand Canyon

[CentralNebWeather]

Very in depth and explains his rationale. Loves the euro over other computer models when he talks about a storms potential

[ToastedRavs]

Very in depth and explains his rationale. Loves the euro over other computer models when he talks about a storms potential

 

 

He loves the Euro to a fault!  But, have to give it to him for sticking to his guns in December, albeit wrong

[Snowlover76]

Very in depth and explains his rationale. Loves the euro over other computer models when he talks about a storms potential

i like Barbs Rule.  I should follow it 

[CentralNebWeather]

Mentions her before most snows

[GDR]

He loves the Euro to a fault! But, have to give it to him for sticking to his guns in December, albeit wrong

and you could throw out barbs rule to in that case

[jcwxguy]

12z fim fwiw

[Maxim]

I must  say  this  page  has  been  entertaining  over  the  last  week.

yeah, you're contributing to the entertainment well.

[Snowlover76]

whats the FIM? 

[Geos]

Checking in after sawing wood all day. Looks like all models look decent for here except the GFS. Any other year I would be feeling good about that. Not th is year though. Personally feelit will be a track Chicago and the tip of Lake Michigan.

 

Tip of Lake Michigan track and you might be ok as long as the system doesn't slow down too much.

[jcwxguy]

whats the FIM? 

A vertically flow-following, icosahedral-grid model for medium-range and seasonal prediction

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/

[ToastedRavs]

Seems a tad faster compared to 12z run, as of the 45 hr mark on the 0z...maybe 100 miles further east, if that

[Snowlover76]

A vertically flow-following, icosahedral-grid model for medium-range and seasonal prediction

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/

welp, in FIM we trust 

[ToastedRavs]

At 54 hours, looks like center of Low on Instant weather near the Stillwater, OK area

[Geos]

Yeah it's coming out faster for sure.

 

[Geos]

That's almost straight east from the kick out point along the front range.

 

[ToastedRavs]

Central MO at hr 66; looks to head to near Hannibal, MO; and it seems to be weaker than previous runs at 69 hrs

[jcwxguy]

nam performed very poorly on dec storm

[bud2380]

lovin' me some NAM. 

[ToastedRavs]

Definitely A LOT further SE than the GFS, doesn't seem to be cutting either..moving more easterly

[Snowlover76]

nam performed very poorly on dec storm

thats because its the NAM 

[Geos]

This has the border area and S WI written on it over here.

 

[bud2380]

The NAM shows accumulating snow all the way into northern MO. 

[ToastedRavs]

E. CO and W KS are the winners on this run. Don't think we have too many members from there on here. LOL

[WBadgersW]

Its weird seeing the Nam on the weaker side of guidance. A lot of times its on steroids, especially in the long range.

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/nKd7E3D.png

[Maxim]

This has the border area and S WI written on it over here.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160131/00Z/f63/crefptypeconus.png

toss

[clintbeed1993]

NAM is out to lunch imho.

[gosaints]

Weak sauce there...

[ToastedRavs]

NAM is out to lunch imho.

 

 

NAM takes 18 hour lunch breaks!  Once every four runs it is on to something. HA

[Geos]

toss

 

If this was the only model not excited about the wave tomorrow, then I would say toss. Can't ignore it though. The weakening trend is something to watch. There's no sharp baroclinic zone in place to amp this up. That high of 1028 mb only mediocre.

 

[jcwxguy]

.

[ToastedRavs]

It's all relative.  Many areas get six to nine inches on the NAM and we consider it weak.  Just goes to show you how amped up we, and many were to expect 12 inches or more.  May not happen but we should still be happy with 6 to 9

[Tom]

00z NAM doesn't even close off the low at 500mb like the other models...

[WBadgersW]

Lol GFS is way NW and NAM way SE. Lets just meet in the middle and have it track just South of Chicago.