GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[bud2380]

I'd be extremely happy with this run of the NAM.  But if the GFS and Euro stay much further north I'll probably discredit this run. 

[Geos]

I do hope Nebraska and western Iowa folks can put away a historic snowstorm for the books. Need to watch the GFS, CMC, and EURO to see how they handle the low structure.

[Iowa2015]

wow S.E trend Shocker Exactly like I said I'm a delusional snow  weenie. Ha ha   

[hlcater]

yea, the NAM is being pretty consistent with the placement of snow. As much as I'd like it to verify I'm feeling like the NAM is consistently wrong. 

[GDR]

Toss it because of barbs rule

[jcwxguy]

i would take the 18z nam over 00z nam, just in terms of amount of snow here(10 vs 6 ), but thats just the weenie in me

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM doesn't even close off the low at 500mb like the other models...

 

This..... Compare the 12z and 00z nam.  The 12z has a big closed H5 low, while on the 00z run it's totally gone.  Hence, the weak surface low and eastward slide.  It's real tough to buy what this run is selling.

[Geos]

Once the NAM gets under 48 hours, then it starts getting better. Right now we're just beyond that.

[CentralNebWeather]

Same with me. Very little in my area on 12z and a move north on 00z as I compare the maps. Still love the other models a lot better obviously

[winterfreak]

NAM has to be out to lunch. A 1002mb low and six inches of snow on my doorstep. Yeah right. Don't worry NE.

[gosaints]

Ehh if the whats happens so be it. If thats what the wave does the nam is probably overdoing precip

[GDR]

wow S.E trend Shocker Exactly like I said I'm a delusional snow weenie. Ha ha

southeastern Iowa should have thrown in the towel a long time ago!

[Maxim]

I'm seriously thinking about taking a break from this board. There's so many snow weenies on here who have no idea what they are talking about and have emotional swings of a 16 yr old girl

Think I might have to do the same tbh.

[Maxim]

Thanks for my deleting my post, Geos (I assume it was you.)

[East Dubzz]

Thanks for my deleting my post, Geos (I assume it was you.)

No it was me, but you're welcome.

[Maxim]

No it was me, but you're welcome.

If you read some of his earlier posts, you'd understand why I'd say that. The dude said that DC would get "light accumulations" from the blizzard last week. Then he says that this would be a KC and Chicago special earlier today without providing any meteorological data to support those asinine calls. Now he's saying that this will trend SE because of one NAM run at hour 66?

[East Dubzz]

I get it. But doesn't mean you have to say that. Just let stuff like that go, you'll be off a lot better. It shouldn't mean anything to you.

[Geos]

No, it wasn't me Maxim.

 

I'm gonna see what WGN has to say about this.

[bud2380]

It's really not that hard to ignore the stupid posts. At least we don't have Tim the weatherman back on here talking about every storm bringing a blizzard.

[Maxim]

It's really not that hard to ignore the stupid posts. At least we don't have Tim the weatherman back on here talking about every storm bringing a blizzard.

True, but still, it makes the board look bad with all these trolls just spewing out nonsense.

 

Completely forgot about the ignore prefs feature too... I'm sure I might have to use that at some point.

[jcwxguy]

00z gfs has started

[Madtown]

Did someone say the b word!!!!lol

[GDR]

[Snowlover76]

00z gfs has started

biggest runs of the season tonight 

[winterfreak]

biggest runs of the season tonight

You'll be fine.

[Geos]

Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow.

 

[gosaints]

biggest runs of the season tonight

Not really wave isnt on shore

[bud2380]

I don't think this thing will be fully sampled for another 24 hours so more fluctuations are likely.

[jcwxguy]

biggest runs of the season tonight 

i would say not until 12z tomorrow or 00z, once its been sampled fully 

[hlcater]

Appears like the lead wave is slightly stronger than 18zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f015/sfcconus.png

 

vs 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160130/18Z/f021/sfcconus.png

[Snowlover76]

Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow.

 

I hate those TV simulated radar maps for this far out. They always mislead the public. 

[Maxim]

Ramsey saying snow to mix to rain, then back to a little snow for Chicago proper. He did stress it could produce more snow.

 

Not really sure why he thinks this is going to start out as all snow, though.

[Maxim]

Appears like the lead wave is slightly stronger than 18zhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f015/sfcconus.png

 

vs 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160130/18Z/f021/sfcconus.png

1 mb stronger

[hlcater]

1 mb stronger

hence the words "appears" and "slightly". 

 

Because I'll be the first to admit I'm no expert when it comes to this and the only way to get better is watch more and more storms.

[Snowlover76]

hence the words "appears" and "slightly". 

 

Because I'll be the first to admit I'm no expert when it comes to this and the only way to get better is watch more and more storms.

1mb stronger or weaker isn't really a big deal.  Just noise and crap. 

[Snowlover76]

through 36 hours

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f036/sfcconus.png

[Geos]

Not really sure why he thinks this is going to start out as all snow, though.

 

He said there will be some cold air out in front of the system. Every model is showing it.

[Snowlover76]

gut feeling is that this ends up similar to the 18, perhaps slightly NW of the 18z run 

[hlcater]

1mb stronger or weaker isn't really a big deal.  Just noise and crap. 

at first glance it looked like 2mb stronger to me, but that's why I post so I can get criticized about every thing that I'm doing wrong.

[Snowlover76]

through 42 hours

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/00Z/f042/sfcconus.png