January 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

I think that based on the reasonable range (

We just had a GFS op run that spit out major arctic air, and there are quite a few fairly cold ensemble members. I think completely ruling out arctic air is silly at this point, with several things pointing to the possibility.

 

And of course 4" (or a trace, as you'd call it) blanketing the western lowlands is never likely. I don't see the point in even making such an obvious statement.

[TT-SEA]

Springlike!

 

 

Jesse... I promise you that will use the term 'winter-like' several times in June and it will be 100% accurate as well.     

 

Today will be very spring-like again at my location.    

 

Sunny... upper 50s and lows 60s... daffodils coming up and magnolia tree budding... grass turning green.      How is that NOT spring-like???

 

And yes... winter will absolutely return.     But I will be enjoying this spring-like weather while it lasts.

[Jesse]

Jesse... I promise you that will use the term 'winter-like' several times in June and it will be 100% accurate as well.     

 

Today will be very spring-like again at my location.    

 

Sunny... upper 50s and lows 60s... daffodils coming up and magnolia tree budding... grass turning green.      How is that NOT spring-like???

 

And yes... winter will absolutely return.     But I will be enjoying this spring-like weather while it lasts.

 

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Insomniac special!  The 6z gets chilly.  Too bad the long days of February will keep highs in the 20's as opposed to teens.

What's the difference in 26 and snow and 19? The sun angle is lower this year.

[TT-SEA]

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

 

Not so much the temperatures down there... but the unusual amount of sunshine and dry weather.   It has been spring-like recently.    Nobody was saying that a couple weeks ago.   Its been more recently.

 

I am sure my area is running well above normal though.   

[TT-SEA]

What's the difference in 26 and snow and 19? The sun angle is lower this year.

 

He was joking.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

DID you See that!!!????  NO really.... Did you see that.. What you say?...   The 06z!!!????  omG! Merry Christmas to us a month later!!     ----  Where the hell is the Gorton the Fisherman!?

It's good but not any big deal. To dry mcfly.

[Phil]

12z GFS progging coast to coast arctic air out in the LR.

 

That's more likely at this point than a SE ridge scenario given the fraying PV and lowering NAM state.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He was joking.

I know, so was I. Haha.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

I came to the conclusion that many of the members on here have no clue how fast the table can turn around here as far as winter weather is concerned. It's almost like they don't know how cold it can be in February or how much it can snow. So they make all there predictions on the rest of the winter based on the fact this season has been lame so far up to this point. (When it comes to snow.) Big mistake.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z is pretty D**n cold.

[TT-SEA]

I came to the conclusion that many of the members on here have no clue how fast the table can turn around here as far as winter weather is concerned. It's almost like they don't know how cold it can be in February or how much it can snow. So they make all there predictions on the rest of the winter based on the fact this season has been lame so far up to this point. (When it comes to snow.) Big mistake.

 

 

I think people know that... but it does not happen very often.

 

There is no doubt it will turn colder for the first part of February.     Not sure how cold yet though. 

[westcoastexpat]

We just had a GFS op run that spit out major arctic air, and there are quite a few fairly cold ensemble members. I think completely ruling out arctic air is silly at this point, with several things pointing to the possibility.

 

And of course 4" (or a trace, as you'd call it) blanketing the western lowlands is never likely. I don't see the point in even making such an obvious statement.

 

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual right now. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

[Jesse]

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

 

 

[Phil]

12z GFS splits the PV from 1-10mb with a significant perturbation below 10mb. This can only help things.

[Jesse]

I really like the 12Z. The cold is here by Wednesday, then sticks around the entire run.

 

Could be looking at a snow event out here next Friday if models keep showing that little system.

[Phil]

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual right now. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

The pattern change is not too far off to be taken seriously. Whether it not it leads to an arctic blast in the PNW remains to be seen..but the likelihood of a blast during the window of interest is probably 50/50..in other words, above average.

[Jesse]

The pattern change is not too far off to be taken seriously. Whether it not it leads to an arctic blast in the PNW remains to be seen..but the likelihood of a blast during the window of interest is probably 50/50..in other words, above average.

 

My point exactly. Chances are elevated right now.

[westcoastexpat]

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

 

It depends where you are, though. Areas socked in with fog will end up being pretty average. Abbotsford for example is likely going to finish this month with a +5F anomaly, whereas Vancouver (which has been very foggy) will end up with a +2F. The local mountains, forget about it. Probably departures of +8F up there.

[Jesse]

It depends where you are, though. Areas socked in with fog will end up being pretty average. Abbotsford for example is likely going to finish this month with a +5F anomaly, whereas Vancouver (which has been very foggy) will end up with a +2F. The local mountains, forget about it. Probably departures of +8F up there.

 

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

[westcoastexpat]

The pattern change is not too far off to be taken seriously. Whether it not it leads to an arctic blast in the PNW remains to be seen..but the likelihood of a blast during the window of interest is probably 50/50..in other words, above average.

 

I agree entirely. I was discussing the chances of a 4"+ snowfall being less likely than usual, not arctic air. I think the shot of modified arctic air spilling into the region is above average for sure. As seen with last month, arctic air and large snow events do not go hand in hand.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual right now. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

There is a evolution taking place in all the models now beginning before the resolution change. It looks pretty obvious that there is a greater than normal chance it could evolve into a classic snow pattern. At this point of the game what would you like to see? Btw the gfs was correct last time when it was throwing out all those cold runs a couple months ago.

[westcoastexpat]

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

 

I'm aware.

 

I'm pointing out that many of the people who have been talking about it being a "spring like month" have been justified in their claims. 

[westcoastexpat]

There is a evolution taking place in all the models now beginning before the resolution change. It looks pretty obvious that there is a greater than normal chance it could evolve into a classic snow pattern. At this point of the game what would you like to see? Btw the gfs was correct last time when it was throwing out all those cold runs a couple months ago.

 

I would like to see snow!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My point exactly. Chances are elevated right now.

Yes, Anyone that understands models should be able to see this. And were talking about trends and chances here not a date and time of what will happen.

[stuffradio]

Yes, Anyone that understands models should be able to see this. And were talking about trends and chances here not a date and time of what will happen.

Jan 31 at 11:59:59 PM. That is precisely when it will happen.

[Phil]

My point exactly. Chances are elevated right now.

The good news now is the PV is nothing like the giant black hole it was back in December/early January. The vorticity maximums are un-stacking as we speak due to continued bombardment from an upward propagating train of wave-breakers.

 

So given the chaotic nature of the Rossby train and tropical response to the cooling Eq/Strat, this window should be harder to predict than the event back in December, yet offers much more potential as well.

[GobBluth]

Blocking stays nearby in the 12z - not a fan.

[Jesse]

Blocking stays nearby in the 12z - not a fan.

 

It is a great run. What are you talking about?

 

I would work on your analysis a little. While at work I will often see you post something strange about a model run, only to check it for myself and have it be the exact opposite of what you said. This has happened several times.

[Phil]

I agree entirely. I was discussing the chances of a 4"+ snowfall being less likely than usual, not arctic air. I think the shot of modified arctic air spilling into the region is above average for sure. As seen with last month, arctic air and large snow events do not go hand in hand.

I disagree. The chances of a 4"+ snowfall go up dramatically in the PNW lowlands with arctic air around. Shortwaves producing precipitation won't be picked up well (if at all) out at this range..we need to focus on getting the cold air in.

 

This isn't Minnesota, where arctic air is nearly irrelevant to snowfall.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Blocking stays nearby in the 12z - not a fan.

Where would you like it to be?

[Phil]

It is a great run. What are you talking about?

Yeah, you don't want the block too far offshore or flow will turn onshore and snow levels will rise. Northerly/NNW flow in the upper levels is the best, especially in Oregon.

 

That's what allowed a shortwave to deepen into "Storm King" in 1880. It's also what produced December 2008.

[Guest Monty67]

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual right now. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

You would have made 12 bucks earlier this month. Wasn't it early January that the operational showed arctic air for three straight days?

 

Anyways, I think this is feeling a little bit different. The ensembles are more or less onboard.

[stuffradio]

We've had lots of snow in February's past. The only difference is it hasn't happend in years. I was already on board yesterday or the day before that something was going to happen for the first week of Feb. I don't necessarily mean it was going to Snow, but I meant we'd get cold or modified or full Arctic air.

[Jesse]

The 12z Ensembles are fantastic. Easily the best yet.

 

Hoping to see a good 12z Euro run keep up the momentum this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 12z Ensembles are fantastic. Easily the best yet.

 

Hoping to see a good 12z Euro run keep up the momentum this morning.

Best yet by far. Mean down to nearly -8c. Increasing number of members -10c or colder. The entire spread itself is showing less and less members warmer than -5c. Very good sign potentially.

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

 

[GobBluth]

The 12z Ensembles are fantastic. Easily the best yet.

 

Hoping to see a good 12z Euro run keep up the momentum this morning.

Average about -10 in long range?

[snow_wizard]

Some very interesting things on the 12z ensemble...

 

The timing moves up yet again where the mean drops below the climo line

The control model goes below -20C

A large number of members -15 or lower and many below -10

On the 500mb spaghetti it's obvious many of the members would spell snow

The mean is 3C to 4C lower than any previous mean on this potential event

[snow_wizard]

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual right now. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

 

Eh...not nearly as true as a few years ago.  We just had a major blast less than two months ago...it's not like it's that outlandish.