January 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Now this is starting to sound like an idiotic discussion I think. 

I do what I can, when I can.

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure is the 18z and 0z both deliver top tier cold. The details will work themselves out. The 0z is better than the 18z for snow.

[stuffradio]

Details will change countless times between now and Saturday next week. Let's just enjoy the rollercoaster and know that some sort of cold event will happen for the first week of Feb.

[stuffradio]

Details will change countless times between now and Saturday next week. Let's just enjoy the rollercoaster and know that some sort of cold event will happen for the first week of Feb.

[snow_wizard]

Details will change countless times between now and Saturday next week. Let's just enjoy the rollercoaster and know that some sort of cold event will happen for the first week of Feb.

I totally agree. I am somewhat encouraged by how nice the 12z ECMWF ensemble was by day 7. I think the 6 to 10 day part of the 0z GFS was probably pessimistic. That having been said 850mb temps were still good by hour 204.

[Guest Winterdog]

Details will change countless times between now and Saturday next week. Let's just enjoy the rollercoaster and know that some sort of cold event will happen for the first week of Feb.

I liked both posts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thursday/Friday system keeps sinking farther south with each run.   I assume that could also accelerate the cold air intrusion.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p06.gif

Agreed. It may do so.

[snow_wizard]

The last CFS run was pretty much orgasmic for the NW. Cold for the entire month of Feb.

[Gradient Keeper]

Overall 500mb pattern looks nice to me.

HR 135

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014012600/images_d1/slp.135.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014012600/images_d2/slp.135.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmm.....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Parksvillewx]

I could definitely go for another one of these.  Video I found from Feb 23, 2011.  This was filmed about 3 hours after the snow started.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llF7Ry9bZw4

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ensembles definitely another step in the wrong direction.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ensembles definitely another step in the wrong direction.

Yep, quite putrid. Definite warming trend since 12z on the ensembles.

 

Portland

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Go EURO! out in 38 minutes

[50shadesofvan]

So... What do you think the ultimate solution will be for 500 mb heights?

 

Latest GEFS

 

A) Cluster 1 50%

B') Cluster 2 20%

C) Cluster 3 25%

D) Cluster 4 5%

 

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian ensemble is the best yet.  Going to be the typical ups and downs for the next few days.

 

[Skagit Weather]

I could definitely go for another one of these.  Video I found from Feb 23, 2011.  This was filmed about 3 hours after the snow started.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llF7Ry9bZw4

Or how about this video I just found on YouTube. Filmed in Skagit County on February 24, 2011. Proof that it can snow in February.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The Canadian ensemble is the best yet. Going to be the typical ups and downs for the next few days.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2014012600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_spag@546_180.png

Seems like the Canadian often plays catch up to the GFS. I am curious what it will show in another run or two and if it starts warming. Hopefully not.

[Parksvillewx]

Or how about this video I just found on YouTube. Filmed in Skagit County on February 24, 2011. Proof that it can snow in February.

 

 

Wow, better yet. We didn't get quite that much here then.  I believe we had 10" total.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
Days 4-8 aren't bad, but then it turns to crap in a hurry. Ridge slides right back over us. We’re days away from the pattern change though, so it’s stupid to get too wrapped up into the models right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z EUROhttp://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

Days 4-8 aren't bad, but then it turns to crap in a hurry. Ridge slides right back over us. We’re days away from the pattern change though, so it’s stupid to get too wrapped up into the models right now.

Not surprised ... Typical.

[Gradient Keeper]

So... What do you think the ultimate solution will be for 500 mb heights?

 

Latest GEFS

 

A) Cluster 1 50%

B') Cluster 2 20%

C) Cluster 3 25%

D) Cluster 4 5%

 

http://i.imgur.com/2NLzvQQ.png?1

Right now I'd go with a blend of 1 & 4.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not a fan of the 6z at all. I hope certain people here realize how quickly this could all blow up in our faces as in the models giving us the finger. There is no "likely" or "bound to happen" when you're talking about snow/arctic air chances 8-10 days out. Not in the Pacific Northwest at least.

[TT-SEA]

The type of evolution shown on the 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS is ultimately how I think this thing could go sideways on us... it goes back to Dewey's comments about the lack of a major player to force the change.   

 

Its crystal clear here again this morning... but a touch cooler with the lack of wind.    Should turn breezy again today capping off a gorgeous weekend out here.   

 

Regardless of the evolution from an arctic air perspective... there is still no sign at all of an active jet stream.     That is a little disturbing... even if the cold fails to materialize.   The longer it waits... the more I think we will be paying for this until June.

[weather girl]

I worry about it, too, but maybe in a slightly different way than you do. I've seen 77 as an analog all over the place. That was a hellish summer. At least by my standards. It could be a long, hot summer (w no water sports.)

[TT-SEA]

I worry about it, too, but maybe in a slightly different way than you do. I've seen 77 as an analog all over the place. That was a hellish summer. At least by my standards. It could be a long, hot summer (w no water sports.)

 

 

I am not sure if this winter is like 1976-77 or not... certainly dry enough but not sure about the overall pattern.

 

That summer was FAR from being too hot and dry up here.   It rained almost constantly until June... it was 63 degrees and raining on the 4th of July... and did not even reach 80 degrees until August.    By the last week of August it was raining again and only in the 60s for highs.

 

I would call that a pretty miserable summer overall... for being too cold and wet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS certainly goes gangbusters with February cold.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20140126.201402.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

The CFS certainly goes gangbusters with February cold.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20140126.201402.gif

NICE! Honestly though we know how accurate the CFS is.

[TT-SEA]

The CFS certainly goes gangbusters with February cold.

 

 

 

 

Silly looking... almost all of North America in the deep freeze?      Something tells me that if the cold stays entrenched in the Midwest then we will continue to see the same general pattern out here.

[Jesse]

A cool, wet summer sounds fine to me. Needs to be cool and wet at some point.

[Phil]

Arctic blast on the GFS beginning around 276-288hrs.

[Jesse]

I think maybe the models initially latching onto the big pattern crash too quickly has fooled us. This often happens. A cold/snowy pattern could still be in the cards, just a little later than we were expecting. Perhaps towards the second week of the month or so (Euro weeklies support this idea).

 

Or maybe nothing will happen. Who knows. Some mountain snow would be nice at very least.

 

27 at PDX this morning!

[westcoastexpat]

I think maybe the models initially latching onto the big pattern crash too quickly has fooled us. This often happens. A cold/snowy pattern could still be in the cards, just a little later than we were expecting. Perhaps towards the second week of the month or so (Euro weeklies support this idea).

 

Or maybe nothing will happen. Who knows. Some mountain snow would be nice at very least.

 

27 at PDX this morning!

 

The mountains really deserve it

[Jesse]

The mountains really deserve it

 

You're absolutely right. They have done a bang up job this year.

[weather girl]

I am not sure if this winter is like 1976-77 or not... certainly dry enough but not sure about the overall pattern.

 

That summer was FAR from being too hot and dry up here. It rained almost constantly until June... it was 63 degrees and raining on the 4th of July... and did not even reach 80 degrees until August. By the last week of August it was raining again and only in the 60s for highs.

 

I would call that a pretty miserable summer overall... for being too cold and wet.

Ok. Thx. I'll double check. I thought that was the summer that got started late but didn't quit until well into September. Major August heatwave.

 

I like yours better. :-)

[Jesse]

The 12Z is a solidly chilly run. 

[TT-SEA]

Ok. Thx. I'll double check. I thought that was the summer that got started late but didn't quit until well into September. Major August heatwave.

 

I like yours better. :-)

 

 

There was an August heatwave.     But that short period was pretty much the entire summer that year.

 

I mean... how can you tell its summer without at least a 2-week period of hot weather??    Seasons!     Just like its nice to know its winter with a period of arctic air and snow.   

 

The summer of 1977 was barely decent outside of that 2-week hot spell.  

[Jesse]

Ok. Thx. I'll double check. I thought that was the summer that got started late but didn't quit until well into September. Major August heatwave.

 

I like yours better. :-)

 

Summer 1977 started out fairly average in June in July. Then of course we had the major heatwave the first half of August. After that the weather abruptly changed to cooler and wetter the last half of August. This carried over into September, which was wet and chilly that year.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z is a solidly chilly run. 

 

 

Don't like how the cold next weekend and even outflow that was shown earlier has just vanished into a wishy-washy gross pattern as we get closer.     Something tells me this long range stuff will continue to go through a vanishing stage when it gets around 144-168 hours out.