January 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interested into which camp the 00z Operational will fall!

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z GFS is totally different than the 12Z GFS at 162 hours.

It sure is. Dramatically so.

[Brennan]

I linked to this video from there... fun stuff.    And they talk about the sun quieting down like it did in the 1600s.   How ironic.  

 

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/active-weather-system-that-just-wont-quit/sharevideo/3110269456001

 

That would actually be a disaster for life as we know it... don't think we really want that.      

If people survive in the Arctic Circle, I don’t think we have much to worry about in terms of being able to survive 

[Guest Monty67]

Interested into which camp the 00z Operational will fall!

Looking at the progression up to hour 162. I'm gonna guess the cold camp.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS HR 162

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_162_500_vort_ht_l.gif

[Phil]

Arctic blast after hr 300, pushed back a day compared to 18z

[snow_wizard]

00Z GFS is totally different than the 12Z GFS at 162 hours.

Exactly what I was just going to say. This will be interesting...I hope.

[snow_wizard]

Arctic blast after hr 300, pushed back a day compared to 18z

I think that would be sooner than the 18z, but later than the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 180 Meh....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_180_500_vort_ht_l.gif

[Phil]

Exactly what I was just going to say. This will be interesting...I hope.

West coast ridge dominates until the Feb 7-8 on this run. Brutally cold for the Midwest and East.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge and block merger was so close HR 156-162.... so close, yet so far away. This run surely sucks.

[TT-SEA]

West coast ridge dominates until the Feb 7-8 on this run. Brutally cold for the Midwest and East.

 

 

Shocking.     <_>

[TT-SEA]

Super Bowl looking dry... maybe breezy but not very cold.   

 

Weather will likely not be a factor at all.  

[Brennan]

Super Bowl looking dry... maybe breezy but not very cold.   

 

Weather likely will not be a factor at all.  

This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. Looking like the weather won’t be a factor over here either... Dry. Go figure! 0z SUCKS. I don’t see anything happening for us in the next 10 or 12 days, and over the past day its looking bleaker and bleaker for the first half of February. I don’t care when it comes, as long as it comes. February 15th-22nd would be fine with me, as long as we get dumped on. Please Snow Gods.... and Football Gods. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More like hour 336.

[TT-SEA]

This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. 

 

I was thinking that as well.     No weather issues at all is the best thing if we want credit for winning.    Assuming we can beat Denver with no crowd or weather advantage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A win is a win, if you win the Super Bowl who cares what people say?!

[Guest Winterdog]

I'm more excited about our impending arctic blast in 15 days.

[snow_wizard]

The interesting thing is about 90% of the runs in the past 3 or 4 days deliver the goods at some point.  Also very interesting how many runs have depicted a situation where we get westerlies undercutting the cold air once it's in place resulting in a snowstorm.  If the ECMWF ensemble is to be believed the cold will arrive sooner than the 0z GFS indicates.  I'm very optimistic.

[snow_wizard]

I'm more excited about our impending arctic blast in 15 days.

 

Typical post these days.  The setup is there before day 15 BTW.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm more excited about our impending arctic blast in 15 days.

it is very possible you will be saying the same thing 15 days from now.

[snow_wizard]

This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. Looking like the weather won’t be a factor over here either... Dry. Go figure! 0z SUCKS. I don’t see anything happening for us in the next 10 or 12 days, and over the past day its looking bleaker and bleaker for the first half of February. I don’t care when it comes, as long as it comes. February 15th-22nd would be fine with me, as long as we get dumped on. Please Snow Gods.... and Football Gods. 

 

The 0z doesn't really suck, but that's just me I guess.

[snow_wizard]

it is very possible you will be saying the same thing 15 days from now.

 

Nope...you are way too focused on just the GFS.

[vck]

 I don't want to hear all the complaining in the SB like all the Hawk fans did in 06 against Pittsburg.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z doesn't really suck, but that's just me I guess.

 

 

I think your internal personal expectations are quite low... but on here you talk as if there is no reason to doubt a massive arctic outbreak and 2 feet of snow in Seattle within a 10 days.    

 

Comes across very odd.   

 

The 00Z GFS has nothing of any interest until 336 hours... which is completely meaningless.

 

And yet you think its a good run.   I believe that is because in reality you are not expecting much.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think your internal personal expectations are quite low... but on here you talk as if there is no reason to doubt a massive arctic outbreak and 2 feet of snow in Seattle within a 10 days.    

 

Comes across very odd.   

 

The 00Z GFS has nothing of any interest until 336 hours... which is completely meaningless.

 

And yet you think its a good run.   I believe because in reality you are not expecting much.

What you do not like frost or maybe the possibility of sloppy rain!? -- all kidding aside I have to agree at face value it is not much to get excited about unless your fantasizing something magical will happen. Maybe things will improve in future runs but at face value it is marginal at best.

[snow_wizard]

What you do not like frost or maybe the possibility of sloppy rain!? -- all kidding aside I have to agree at face value it is not much to get excited about unless your fantasizing something magical will happen. Maybe things will improve in future runs but at face value it is marginal at best.

OK...just disregard the ECMWF ensemble which is of much higher skill. We need to always believe the worst on this forum. I don't know why I bother coming on here. It's the biggest downer of my existence right now. Talk to me when we are sitting here with snow and cold weather next month. I'm done on here for a while.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...even Tim said he thinks something will happen next month. He is just stirring up animosity on here and egging on the weenies. It is not fun coming here anymore. Maybe when the snow actually starts to fall it might become enjoyable again.

[luvssnow_spokane]

OK...just disregard the ECMWF ensemble which is of much higher skill. We need to always believe the worst on this forum. I don't know why I bother coming on here. It's the biggest downer of my existence right now. Talk to me when we are sitting here with snow and cold weather next month. I'm done on here for a while.

ok But I was referring to the GFS run not the ECMWF. I never said anything about ECMWF nor was Tim referring to it. I look forward to snow next month and nobody said it was not going to happen but was taking about what the models showed at face value.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lets just have some common sense objective talk about the models!

 

There is some hope, but also at least a 50% chance that nothing very interesting will happen.

 

DIscuss!!!

[TT-SEA]

BTW...even Tim said he thinks something will happen next month. He is just stirring up animosity on here and egging on the weenies. It is not fun coming here anymore. Maybe when the snow actually starts to fall it might become enjoyable again.

 

 

I think something will be coming within the next month... but not based on the 00Z GFS.  

 

That run was pure crap.   

 

I have not even looked at the ECMWF ensembles.     Everything is vague and messy right now.   It will take awhile for this to settle out.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

Lets just have some common sense objective talk about the models!

 

There is some hope, but also at least a 50% chance that nothing very interesting will happen.

 

DIscuss!!!

EXACTLY!! --- It is not about feeling all warm and fuzzy and making up stuff. I still feel we have a chance but as it is, it is still a wait and see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lotta cold ensemble members. Overall they are everywhere though.

[Gradient Keeper]

OK...just disregard the ECMWF ensemble which is of much higher skill. We need to always believe the worst on this forum. I don't know why I bother coming on here. It's the biggest downer of my existence right now. Talk to me when we are sitting here with snow and cold weather next month. I'm done on here for a while.

I think the thing you need to understand is people aren't posting "the worst" or negatively as to spite you or anything like that. It's okay for you to be optimistic, but keep a sense of realism in doing so. I think you feel that if this Winter doesn't pan out that it's the end of the world, but it isn't. It will suck if we don't see anything in February, but it's just the weather. It isn't life or death, or anything you should be down about. Right now models are wishy-washy. We've had a few good operational runs, and a few ensembles that are encouraging, but that's as far as I'd go with things, and you should do the same for your own sake. The trend(if we can call it that today) overall today wasn't good. The EURO ensembles are decent. The GFS Ensembles have trended a bit less favorably, but not horrible(at least mountain snow), but the ensemble spread tells us there is too much uncertainty beyond day 7. Try to be more objective and don't have a "all or nothing" mindset. Just trying to give you a bit of advice for your own sake and your own sanity.

 

Now onto 00z EURO/Ensembles, and 12z tomorrow. Let's see how things shake out.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM(Canuck Model)
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

[brody]

00z GEM(Canuck Model)

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

next please 

[Guest Monty67]

The Canadian ensemble and NAEFS are improving some but that is 10+ days out.

[Guest Monty67]

0z euro....meh, moving on.

[Parksvillewx]

Euro site isn't updating for me..

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro site isn't updating for me..

Yeah, me neither. Try this one http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html