April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Do you think we'll be able to book Henry Winkler?

He's fat now and pushing reverse mortgages. Climate change has not been friendly to him.

[TT-SEA]

I get what you're trying to say. But arguing in favor of an analog based on how "incredible" the seasons were doesn't really hold up in what is supposed to be a somewhat scientific discussion of potential analogs. What type of patterns predominated at 500mb? How did the 1926 Niño fade vs how the 2016 one appears to be/is forecasted to?

 

 

None of that matters... there will be posts later this year on which variables were totally different than expected and why the results were not what was anticipated.    I think it will be a warmer than normal summer... just a feeling based on persistence.    

[Timmy Supercell]

None of that matters... there will be posts later this year on which variables were totally different than expected and why the results were not what was anticipated.    I think it will be a warmer than normal summer... just a feeling based on persistence.    

 

I agree that this summer could be warm too. I don't know about June being quite near record levels though. June 2015 I smashed my previous record average high by multiple degrees. (84.6 avg high June 2015, 79.8 avg high June 2003)

 

So far there are things looking a lot like 2004 in some aspects. Wintery start in both lowlands and mountains, warm April... etc. Some naysayers think summer is going to be like 2000-2002 but I doubt that. 2004 also brought us a decent summer. Not quite "hot" but decent.

[Deweydog]

Impressive day on the coast.  Looks like Astoria set a new monthly record.  

[Jesse]

None of that matters... there will be posts later this year on which variables were totally different than expected and why the results were not what was anticipated. I think it will be a warmer than normal summer... just a feeling based on persistence.

You are way too arrogant.

[Timmy Supercell]

You are way too arrogant.

 

Arrogant but also an optimist

[Jesse]

Arrogant but also an optimist

No, he's going for a warmer summer. That's pessimistic.

[Deweydog]

You are way too arrogant.

Would a cold feeling be labeled arrogant, Mr. Objectivity?

[Jesse]

Would a cold feeling be labeled arrogant, Mr. Objectivity?

If it wasn't at all based in fact and going against more " scientific" approaches, then yes, yes it would.

[Timmy Supercell]

No, he's going for a warmer summer. That's pessimistic.

 

I'm confident we're through with the worst of summer weather for a little while. Maybe in another 5-6 years look forward to some great heatwaves and a June wave or two.

 

A couple weeks of June could still have gloom! That happened even in years such as 2009, what 10-12 days after a severe t'storm outbreak and heat wave? 

[Jesse]

I'm feeling a big mid or late summer cool stretch to attempt to make up for this April ridiculousness.

[Deweydog]

If it wasn't at all based in fact and going against more " scientific" approaches, then yes, yes it would.

Your history indicates otherwise.

[Jesse]

Your history indicates otherwise.

Okie dokie.

[Deweydog]

I'm feeling a big mid or late summer cool stretch to attempt to make up for this April ridiculousness.

Science!

[Jesse]

Science!

Law of averages.

 

You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely.

[Front Ranger]

OLM broke their daily record high today from...1983!

[Deweydog]

Law of averages.

 

You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely.

I think it's well established our current cycle of warmth is waning. After all, if it isn't we'd be in pretty much inexplicable territory. Arrogance and opinion-related anxiety notwithstanding.

 

That said, the whole "payback" thing is more of an intraseasonal thing if you ask me. Your extrapolation, based more on wishful thinking of course, is even less scientific.

[TT-SEA]

I think it's well established our current cycle of warmth is waning. After all, if it isn't we'd be in pretty much inexplicable territory. Arrogance and opinion-related anxiety notwithstanding.

 

That said, the whole "payback" thing is more of an intraseasonal thing if you ask me. Your extrapolation, based more on wishful thinking of course, is even less scientific.

 

 

I would prefer a cooler summer than the last 2 years.     Last summer was taxing on the vegetation.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous weekend... yard is happy now.    All the spring weeding and planting is done.   

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

I would prefer a cooler summer than the last 2 years. Last summer was taxing on the vegetation.

No doubt. I would just LOVE to do the math on how much we spent on irrigation and now some landscape renovations because of the last two warm seasons.

[bainbridgekid]

Law of averages.

 

You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely.

That's not how the law of averages works.

[Front Ranger]

Law of averages.

 

You may not like it, but this torchy Spring is making it more likely.

 

FWIW...

 

Top 5 warmest Aprils at PDX: 2004, 1989, 1992, 1941, 1990.

 

2004 was followed by a warm summer, although it did have a cooler than normal September.

 

1989 was well below normal in July/August. Warm September, though.

 

1992 had a warm summer, but was cooler than normal in September.

 

1941 had a very warm July, but a very cool September.

 

1990 was a warm summer with a very warm September.

 

 

3/5 cooler than normal Septembers. SCORE!!

[Deweydog]

I bet we have a wet trough in July. We're due!!!

[Jesse]

That's not how the law of averages works.

"Law of Averages:

 

Noun

 

The principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average."

 

Seems like it fits to me. We are so crazy warm right now that some sort of other shoe dropping in the coming months seems likely. Matt calls it payback theory and usually is a big proponent of it if it means warmth down the road or if I'm not saying it.

[bainbridgekid]

"Law of Averages:

 

Noun

 

The principle that supposes most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average."

 

Seems like it fits to me. We are so crazy warm right now that some sort of other shoe dropping in the coming months seems likely. Matt calls it payback theory and usually is a big proponent of it if it means warmth down the road or if I'm not saying it.

"As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

 

Warm months are not more likely to be followed up by cool ones. Nor are warm Springs.

[Jesse]

"As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects wishful thinking or a poor understanding of statistics rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

 

Warm months are not more likely to be followed up by cool ones. Nor are warm Springs.

Looking at the big picture things tend to average out toward climo. You are either reading too much into this statement or you are being purposefully obtuse.

[bainbridgekid]

Looking at the big picture things tend to average out toward climo. You are either reading too much into this statement or you are being purposefully obtuse.

Of course.

 

But it isn't that short term anomalies get "balanced out" by opposite anomalies. It's just that they become insignificant over the long term.

 

If the balancing out theory were correct, warm months/seasons/years would be more likely to be followed by cool ones and vice versa. That just isn't the case.

[Jesse]

Of course.

 

But it isn't that short term anomalies get "balanced out" by opposite anomalies. It's just that they become insignificant over the long term.

 

If the balancing out theory were correct, warm months/seasons/years would be more likely to be followed by cool ones and vice versa. That just isn't the case.

You are correct, it isn't. But if you looked at our climate on a large scale you would likely see that multi-year stretches of warm years are more likely to be followed by multi-year stretches of cool ones. Lots of ups and downs oscillating around a steadily climbing mean, but long periods of up generally are answered by longish (but perhaps not completely equal) periods of down. It is really just a question of time scale.

 

Obviously a warm spell in April is not going to clench a cool summer period for us. Just like a troughy spring and summer does not statistically make a warm autumn more likely, but people throw that kind of thing around all the time here and don't really catch a lot of flack for it. It is kind of interesting to use logic similar to those prognosticating another warm warm season, and seeing how much scrutiny a forecast using the same "methodology" is put under for simply going the other way.

[ShawniganLake]

 

FWIW...

 

Top 5 warmest Aprils at PDX: 2004, 1989, 1992, 1941, 1990.

 

2004 was followed by a warm summer, although it did have a cooler than normal September.

 

1989 was well below normal in July/August. Warm September, though.

 

1992 had a warm summer, but was cooler than normal in September.

 

1941 had a very warm July, but a very cool September.

 

1990 was a warm summer with a very warm September.

 

 

3/5 cooler than normal Septembers. SCORE!!

I believe that 1934 is the April benchmark here. Before pdx's time or did it not make the grade down that way?

[Jesse]

I believe that 1934 is the April benchmark here. Before pdx's time or did it not make the grade down that way?

 

PDX records only go back to 1940, but Aprils 1926 and 1934 were first and second warmest in downtown history (records back to 1871), with respective monthly averages of 60.2 and 59.8

 

PDX could end up somewhere in the 58-60 degree ballpark for average temp if some warmer models are to be believed. The next few days are going to do a number on an already ridiculously inflated monthly average for many stations. Even with a close to average last week or so of the month it would be tough to recover.

[Jesse]

Kelso has been a hot spot lately. 86 there today.

 

Also hit 86 in Newport, perhaps even more impressively.

[TT-SEA]

Visible daylight in the western sky at 9 p.m.

[Jesse]

Visible daylight in the western sky at 9 p.m.

 

Could be a bright summer on the way.

 

A lot of 9:00pm+ sunset days possible this year if offshore SSTs cooperate.

[Jesse]

Also of interest in the sky this evening is a very close Moon and Jupiter.

[MossMan]

Spectacular weekend! Not often you can be outside wearing shorts and a short sleeved shirt at 8pm on a mid April evening and be comfortable!

[Timmy Supercell]

I bet we have a wet trough in July. We're due!!!

 

Or another long series of wet ULL's feeding t'storms into Klamath Falls. That happened last year

[Anti Marine Layer]

Could be a bright summer on the way.

 

A lot of 9:00pm+ sunset days possible this year if offshore SSTs cooperate.

So the sea surface temperatures would determine what time the sun sets?

[TT-SEA]

A low of 62 here.  

 

67 right now in the valley and the sun has not even cleared Mt. Si yet down there.   Also... the sun sets at 8 p.m. here now.

 

http://s4.postimg.org/5114bbp6l/Untitled.png

[TT-SEA]

So the sea surface temperatures would determine what time the sun sets?

 

Sarcasm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is really difficult to get to upset over really nice weather in April. Yesterday was so gorgeous.