Iowawx Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro snowfall maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just curious if the NCEP 12z model suites were able to ingest all of its data since it was delayed due to technical problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just my two cents but I have said this many times that the GFS has been terrible this winter and always the last to the party and I don't see that changing anytime soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro maps are 10:1 and the reason why I post precip maps is because some systems will have higher snow ratios. You can do the math yourself to get a general idea of snow fall totals. Here is the Euro snowfall map. I think Accuweather Pro has Euro snowfall maps. Maybe Bud can post them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm thinking LOT will issue WSW for this afternoon's package... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro maps are 10:1 and the reason why I post precip maps is because some systems will have higher snow ratios. You can do the math yourself to get a general idea of snow fall totals. Here is the Euro snowfall map. I think Accuweather Pro has Euro snowfall maps. Maybe Bud can post them.How much of that needs to be taken off with today's system in Iowa. Having trouble loading it on wxbell that's easily low end warning snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Deduct roughly .10-.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 The Euro usually is frugal with qpf so this is a good sign. Just going off of trends this winter I expect this to come in wetter and stronger so my first call is 5"-10" and that 5" could be on the low side. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro last 3 runs for ORD12Z: 0.50 QPF (yesterday)0Z: 0.36 QPF12Z: 0.43 QPF It has definitely been trending colder as well. I'm thinking this will be a solid low end warning type snow 4-6 inches widespread. Like Tony said the Euro may even be underestimating the amount of moisture with this system. We will see, but it's going to be a solid storm no matter what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 This storm has potential to rapidly deepen as it heads into S IL/IN into NW OH and therefore produce a lot of moisture with a wide open Gulf. Not to mention the jet stream is in an ideal position to produce maximum lift and deep DGZ growth zone and forcing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW, this is off topic but did anyone catch the USA vs Russia Olympic hockey game??? What an amazing game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 euro is a solid .4-.5 qpf here as well. I'm guessing ratios should at least be 12:1 if not higher, correct? GB mentioned 15:1 ratios in the morning AFD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW, this is off topic but did anyone catch the USA vs Russia Olympic hockey game??? What an amazing game.Yup, one of the best Olympic hockey games I have ever seen. I luckily woke up early enough to see the last period, overtime and the shootout. Kaner had a couple of good chances to end the game in OT. I'm not the biggest fan of the shootout in hockey, but I kind of like the rule where instead of alternating shooters the teams can keep the same shooter after the first three. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 I woke up in time to see the shootout. Was an awesome game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 MKE really cut back on the high temps that were forecasted a few days ago. Now a high of 23 on Monday. Should be that fluffy snow again, Snow. High near 23. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice, glad to see there are some hockey fans on this board. Scott, I know you like hockey and I also didn't know they can keep alternating the same players in a shootout. I DVR'd the game so I'll probably start watching the entire game after the Latvia/Sweden game going on now. Oduya and Hammer are playing from the Hawks! I just saw the highlights...I'm sure all the drunk Ruzki's are belligerent in Mother Russia right about now...Hahahah! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Bufkit for MKE/MSN/GB/ORD/OSH 12z NAM: MKE: 0.39 QPF/4.8 SNOSH: 0.42 QPF/5.6 SNMSN: 0.32 QPF/4.3 SNGRB: 0.39 QPF/5.0 SNORD: 0.34 QPF/3.7 SN 12z GFS: MKE: 0.24 QPF/2.1 SNOSH: 0.21 QPF/1.8 SNMSN: 0.30 QPF/3.0 SNGRB: 0.21 QPF/1.7 SNORD: 0.14 QPF/1.2 SN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 If LOT does lean towards a WSW, I think they'd wait for the 0z runs or even tomorrow's 12z runs before doing it. Just my opinion though. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah, right now, I don't think this is a Winter Storm Warning type of storm. Isn't the criteria 6+? I think this is a high end advisory type of storm. We'll see, it could very well trend wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Your probably right, but the snow will be coming down hard and during the evening commute. Even if it turns out being a 4-6" with locally more, that still would constitute a WSW IMO. It's looking better organized and moisture laden so it could trend wetter also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Dragged myself out of bed to catch the whole USAvsRUS game. Spectacular game, as others have said. Funny how Oshie took 6 of the 8 shots, as international rules allow for. GFS would not be my model of choice at the moment. Probably a 3-5" conservative call from me, just in case GFS is sniffing something out. Would readily bump up to 4-7" if GFS caves to wetter ideas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Huge hockey fan here UW season ticket holder. Got up for the whole game and I have to say I almost hope they don't play each other again, as I don't know if that can be matched again how it all played out. Anyways amazing how this was a rain mix situation and now getting missed to the south. The pattern continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Didn't get a chance to see the game, but I'm betting there will be some replay eventually. Big hockey fan here, love the Hawks, awesome win for USA! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Huge hockey fan here UW season ticket holder. Got up for the whole game and I have to say I almost hope they don't play each other again, as I don't know if that can be matched again how it all played out. Anyways amazing how this was a rain mix situation and now getting missed to the south. The pattern continues What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 I believe heaviest snows with be in northern IL. maybe i'll be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 18Z NAM is going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM trending towards the GFS but is still wetter. 6+ amounts showing up in WI already through hr 48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z NAM still pretty wet and staying cold. I'd say snow ratios would be around 13 or 14:1 with -7C temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW, 18z NAM showing more digging with this wave...almost seem like it wants to form a comma shape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM with 6+ across nearly all of WI this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 18Z NAM is overall a better run for everybody. Should be no complaints at this point; this is going to be a solid storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Big jump in the SREF Plumes. 9z: ORD: 0.29/2.8 SNMSN: 0.35/4.1 SNMKE: 0.34/3.6 SNOSH: 0.40/5.2 SN 15z: ORD: 0.41/4.6 SN (+1.8)MSN: 0.50/6.4 SN (+2.3)MKE: 0.49/6.2 SN (+2.6)OSH: 0.52/7.2 SN (+2.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's a healthy looking wave... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW, this is off topic but did anyone catch the USA vs Russia Olympic hockey game??? What an amazing game. Yes it was! As good as you could hope (ask) for and come out on the short end of the stick.. (no pun intended) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 LSE AFD: Considered a WSW but decided to hold off based on agreement between the other neighbors TIGHTENING MODEL CONSENSUS AND 15.15Z SREF MEAN CONTINUETO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FCSTAREA FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON. MOST OF IT FALLING INTHE 12-18Z PERIOD MON MORNING AND IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE.POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE AND SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH/HR...MUCH LIKE THE SYSTEM PASSING TODAY. CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WATCHFOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVENAGREEMENT AMONG NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARSQUITE LIKELY BUT A BIT EARLY FOR THAT AND WILL PASS OFF TO NIGHTCREW ONCE THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE AREA. WILL HIT HARD INTHE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR NOW. DID RAISE -SN CHANCES TO 70-90PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE SUN NIGHT THEN TO 90-100PERCENT MON MORNING...TRENDING DOWN/OUT TO THE EAST MON AFTERNOON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 4km NAM showing 35-40 dbz in Chicago between 15z and 21z. Starts at about 12z and ends around 0z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 LOT AFD (some good thoughts) FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE NEXT MAJOR CONCERN IS LATE SUNDAY NIGHTAND MONDAY AS ANOTHER POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TAKES AIM ONTHE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM IS PROVING TO BE MORE CHALLENGINGTHAN AVERAGE AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERNPACIFIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSSSOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCECRASHES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THE ENERGYIS EXPECTED TO BECOME SPLIT...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM POSSIBLYMOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS...AND THESOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY POSSIBLY TRACKING ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY.BECAUSE OF THIS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HAVING ISSUES WITH THEEVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12 UTCECMWF...GEM AND UKMET ARE IN THE SAME BOAT...SUGGESTING THAT THISMID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND BEA SLOWER MOVER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12 UTCNAM AND GFS SUGGEST A QUICKER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. CURRENTTHINKING IS TO TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWFAND GEM AS IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTCOAST WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM...HENCE MAKING ITMORE LIKELY FOR IT TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. CONFIDENCE WITH THISSYSTEM IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE...HOWEVER.OVERALL...THIS SLOWER AND STRONGER SOLUTION COULD FAVOR MORE OF ASNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF MY AREA RATHER THAN ICE. I CONTINUED THETREND OF MENTIONING ONLY SNOW FAR NORTH AND CONTINUED THE WINTER MIXFOR MY SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOWAMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DYNAMICFORCING AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE THREAT FOR ICEACCUMULATIONS IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT APPEARS TO BEDECREASING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OFTHE AREA...WHERE IT APPEARS THE COLUMN MAY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FORMAINLY SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLACE WITH THISSYSTEM...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 MKE with a pretty weak AFD and not a lot of thoughts on the system. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIESTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z MON AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS ILON MON. THE MODELS DIFFERS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OFCYCLOGENESIS BUT EITHER WAY WE WILL SEE AN IMPRESSIVE ROUND OFDEEP WARM..MOIST ADVECTION AND PVA MON AM. THE FAST SPEED OF THE SYSTEMSHOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE...AND BELOW WINTERSTORM WARNING CRITERIA EVEN IF THE CYCLOGENESIS BECOMES MOREFAVORABLE IN ENHANCING THE LIFT. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELYBE NEEDED FOR MONDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z GFS a bit wetter. 4-6 in S. WI and 2-3 in Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice write up from LOT...from looking at the 18z NAM 500mb map, it does look like the system wants to go neg tilt. Trends are only getting stronger and better phased so we may in fact see higher results from this system...especially when better data comes in tomorrow from the balloon network. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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