2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm

[MKEstorm]

Feeling good some ares will over perform with this one. There gonna be some impressive hourly rates tom and nice to see the more neg tilt on this.

 

Neg tilt would be nice! Haven't had much of that this winter!

[DominicR]

WGN RAP 3.5 for MDY and 3.8 ORD. Not bad. I will take anything around 4 inches or more.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

WGN RAP 3.5 for MDY and 3.8 ORD. Not bad. I will take anything around 4 inches or more.

 

Are there greater totals north?

[DominicR]

Are there greater totals north?

 

Not quite sure. Just heard of it from someone.

[Tom]

Just measured a 12" snow depth, would be nice to get another 5-6" on top of it by tomorrow.

[Iowawx]

00Z GFS is going right now. 

[DominicR]

Just measured a 12" snow depth, would be nice to get another 5-6" on top of it by tomorrow.

 

Tammy model showing general 5-8 inches. Heavy stuff wont make it til 1pm here til 7pm.

[Tom]

Tammy Fox just showed widespread 6-8" totals for N IL...I would expect LOT issue WSW overnight tonight.  This storm will be hitting during the evening commute and with very heavy snowfall rates.  Our region is in the "left front" exit region of the jet where maximum lift is generated and there may be vertical build to the cloud tops that creates Thundersnow out of this.

[Iowawx]

By the looks of this, you guys in Chicago are going to do a lot better than us in Eastern Iowa. You have a much better chance of seeing 6+ than we do. 

[Money]

GFS with 6-8 for N. IL and nearly all of S/W/N WI

[DominicR]

GFS looks to be coming in a little bit wetter looking at snowfall maps.

[Tom]

00z GFS looking great...keeps on getting better and better...looks like ORD has a good shot to hit 70"  for the season by tomorrow Dominick!

[Money]

GFS/NAM all with 6+ for pretty much all of us and SREF are quite a bit wetter. 

[Tom]

00z GFS...

 

 

[DominicR]

Have a felling LOT will go warning for 5-8 inches.

[DominicR]

lol posted on his fb 45 min ago.

[Tom]

What the heck is Microcast smoking????

[Madtown]

anyone got the GFS snow map?

[Money]

MKE Update:

 

.UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE FAR EAST ARE
DISSIPATING AS THE DELTA T AND FLOW BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ARE
SPREADING IN QUICKLY AND WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMP DROP.
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RADAR IS SHOWING ACTIVITY REACHING THE MS RIVER ALREADY THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS IS HIGH BASED STUFF WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. SURFACE OBS HAVEN/T YET PINGED ANY SNOW...SO NOT TOO
WORRIED OF AN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED START. AS THE DEEPER WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHT SNOW
SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 3 AM. THIS
INITIAL SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVING BY MID
MORNING.

THE NEW NAM HAS ARRIVED AND ISN/T OFFERING ANY SURPRISES. ITS
TOTAL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS...BETWEEN
/.25-.30/ BUT THAT STILL PUTS US AROUND THE 4 INCH MARK. SO DON/T
SEE ANY REASON FOR ANY EARLY ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE

 

[Money]

GB update:

 

UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014

LATEST WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A SOLID 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION THAT A CERTAIN AREA WOULD RECEIVE
WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA SNOW...WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A
LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE IF AN UPGRADE
WOULD BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT OR NEAR
THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE SOME
AS THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WINDS INCREASE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS 12Z.

 

[MarcusBeier]

Tom, i really appreciate the info mate...looking solid for Heavy snow over a 6 hour period adding up to 4-6 with lollipops anywhere in SEMI really..will be fun to see this one pan out..no dud no dud haha

[bud2380]

Hrw-nmm

 

[Geos]

[Tom]

00z Euro...

 

[Sciascia]

Izzi over at LOT mentioning possible thundersnow. I saw someone else say something about Izzi not being surprised to see double digit totals. But I don't see that in the discussion. Maybe said it on Facebook?

[abhidupage]

Here's Rap run thru only 22z rather scary, juicy, and snowy!

[abhidupage]

Izzi over at LOT mentioning possible thundersnow. I saw someone else say something about Izzi not being surprised to see double digit totals. But I don't see that in the discussion. Maybe said it on Facebook?

Yeah he said it on facebook. But he's feeling really excited for the thundersnow potential we may be in for a new surprise if this system turns convective. Thinking WSW is all but a given after his strong wording of crippling 2"+/hr totals possible

[Sciascia]

Cook now under WSW!

[DominicR]

Cook now under WSW!

[6789]

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATION...POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO
RECEIVE TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

* PRIMARY IMPACT...SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES
POSSIBLY REACHING TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW
COVERED ROADS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION.

[Sciascia]

Calling for excess of 6 inches, with updated "exact" totals being done in the next couple hours.

[Money]

Wonder if MKE will follow suit 

[6789]

Looks like this is going to be a good one, maybe even a double digit even for some areas. Won't get super excited until it starts but the potential is definitely there!

[6789]

Via LOT:

THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A FAIRLY HIGHPOTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND EVENSOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW HAVE QPF VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ATLEAST LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTIOON OF THEAREA...AND SHOULD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SNOWFALL TOTALSCOULD BE EVEN HIGHER. GIVEN THE CHANGE IN THINKING HAVE OPTED TOUPDATE WSW AND GET THE WARNING OUT NOW TO GIVE A COUPLE EXTRAHOURS HEADS UP FOR OUR USERS. MORE FINE TUNED SNOWFALL TOTALS WILLBE PUT OUT WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE.

[Tom]

This storm has turned into a pleasant surprise from a few days ago.  Who would have thought N IL would get snow, let alone a WSW and the potential for Thundersnow!  It just goes to show you how volatile the weather pattern can get in a matter of a couple days.

[6789]

This storm has turned into a pleasant surprise from a few days ago.  Who would have thought N IL would get snow, let alone a WSW and the potential for Thundersnow!  It just goes to show you how volatile the weather pattern can get in a matter of a couple days.

Exactly! I'm hoping mother nature will turn the pattern around next weekend to all snow, all that rain and flooding will really do some damage around here! 

[Tom]

Looking at the radar, lots of convection already showing up in NE/W IA and heading east...

[DominicR]

I see that Tom and if that contain that for a good 5-6 hrs we def be looking at solid warning type snows out of this. It's gonna be a messy commute coming home tom eve.

[Money]

Latest RAP with .5-.6 QPF across S. WI. 14:1 ratios would be 7 inches.

 

I highly doubt they upgrade though considering just a day or so ago they said no way would they get more than 3-5 even if it strengthens. 

[DominicR]

Wonder if ORD can possibly crack 70 now I feel a bit more confident but we need to make up 8 inches with this which has shot if convection over performers.