2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm

[Sciascia]

Moderate snow here. That started quickly.

[DominicR]

Reading some exerpts from Americanwx forums is quite amusing especially from this guy ALEK. I usually don't want to talk about anyone as everyone has their own opinion but he is always low balling and looking only at model runs instead of looking at the complete picture. Now I am no Met and don't know much but 2.8 will not happen from this system...I just don't get it.

 

Eh don't blame him/her I see it can be quite annoying but then you have the weenies who always try to be to high and find every little thing even though it does not make meteorological sense.

[DominicR]

Starting to fill more nicely in E IA. Though, D**n look how fast it moves out.

 

Ya, it certainly does but going to get even better.  We haven't seen a system like this all season long...only if it didn't have to move so fast.

[Tony]

Eh don't blame him/her I see it can be quite annoying but then you have the weenies who always try to be to high and find every little thing even though it does not make meteorological sense.

Yea I know. Every forum needs a Debbie Downer!

[Tony]

Starting to fill more nicely in E IA. Though, D**n look how fast it moves out.

Do you think it will slow some as it goes negative tilt?

[East Dubzz]

There is no way we get 5" from this.

[DominicR]

Do you think it will slow some as it goes negative tilt?

 

I am not sure. It's been such a long time since I seen a system that actually gone neg tilt like this. If there has been lately this is a nice neg tilt looking system. Just the speed kills us from a very big snow producer.

[DominicR]

There is no way we get 5" from this.

 

Maybe not you guys but NE IL still has good shot for now.

[Tony]

WOW if this actually does happen. I don't believe I have ever seen 3" hr rates!!

 

LOT:

PRIMARY IMPACT...SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY...WITH SNOWFALL RATES
POSSIBLY REACHING TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW
COVERED ROADS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION.

 

[East Dubzz]

Maybe not you guys but NE IL still has good shot for now.

Yeah, I agree, but I don't a winter storm warming for 5-7"... And I don't think that's happening.

[Geos]

There is no way we get 5" from this.

 

What's it like out there?

[East Dubzz]

What's it like out there?

Snow has just picked up recently. I just woke up, expected there to be some good snow already but we don't have all that much. Nice rate right now, and some heavy snow is going to move through eventually, but there is no way we can pick up 5-7" like the NWS says.

[DominicR]

WOW if this actually does happen. I don't believe I have ever seen 3" hr rates!!

 

LOT:

 

I have only one time and that was late Jan 2002 snowstorm ORD got 12 inches.

[The Snowman]

WOW if this actually does happen. I don't believe I have ever seen 3" hr rates!!

 

LOT:

Think the heaviest snow I've seen was the GHD blizzard- could barely see past the street lamp that was ~100 feet away.

[Money]

Snow has just picked out recently. I just woke up, expected there to be some good snow already but we don't have all that much. Nice rate right now, and some heavy snow is going to move through eventually, but there is no way we can pick up 5-7" like the NWS says.

 

A lot more shots in the future. NAM gives you a nice storm for Thursday and there could be another one a few days later. Very active pattern. 

[DominicR]

Think the heaviest snow I've seen was the GHD blizzard- could barely see past the street lamp that was ~100 feet away.

 

Not for me. The snow was more pixie dust over here.

[shakjen]

according to radar it should be snowing heavily here, nothing coming down yet.

[Jaycee]

The hatred is real amongst us right now. Enjoy your 6-10" AGAIN.

[Money]

Out in Iowa...

 

0810 AM SNOW 4 W POLK CITY 41.78N 93.80W
02/17/2014 E2.0 INCH POLK IA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW AND A LITTLE THUNDER AROUND
740AM. SNOW LETTING UP NOW.

 

2 IN in 30 mins

[Sciascia]

Snow done for now. A quick coating, but moved F-A-S-T! Hope the rest will slow down a little bit when it shows up.

[Tom]

Hey Tony, your call of 5-10" may come into fruition today! 

[abhidupage]

For all those that were worried about Mircocast showing very little, just chatted with Caplan he said it has 4-8" now

[Tony]

Hey Tony, your call of 5-10" may come into fruition today! 

I hope your right Tom but the only way we get that 10" amount will be with convection but many are harping on this happening but 6" sure looks like money at this moment.

[Tony]

Hey Tony, your call of 5-10" may come into fruition today! 

Tom, what are your thoughts as this goes negative tilt...slower/stronger?

[Sciascia]

Wow, a 4-inch-per-hour rate in Iowa?! That'd be disastrously heavenly here. But I don't think we'll get it that good. Lol

[6789]

It needs to slow down

[Madtown]

if the radar isn't goin to light up to 11 or noon it might be on the east coast by then

[Tom]

Normally when a system goes neg tilt we see more moisture get thrown back north and west of the SLP and that will add to the duration of the event.  We will have to see how this evolves over the next few hours.  Looking at water vapor imagery, the storm is starting to show more enhanced cloud tops meaning better phasing is occurring as we speak.  The storm is getting stronger as the day progresses.

[East Dubzz]

Coming down very nicely right now. Moderate snow, average size flakes.

[abhidupage]

Latest Mircocast.

[Geos]

First wave of snow on radar not making it to the ground here in Racine.

 

I was just thinking with these winds, the flakes might shatter and ratios may not be as good.

[Money]

heavier band of snow developing just south of madison >30dbz snows. Getting stronger/wider each frame

[james1976]

snowing like crazy here...wow. big flakes. cant hardly see across the road.

[Tom]

Had some nice fat flakes with the band that passed earlier...2nd band just redeveloped out of nowhere just south of ORD.  These are the kind of storms bands just intensify out of nowhere esp when they are intensifying.  Should be interesting to see the radar over the next couple hours.

[Sciascia]

I might have bad eyes (hence my glasses), but does it look a little darker outside to anyone else than it usually does for snow events? My room isn't being lit by the open window like it normally does (even during snow events).

[DominicR]

I might have bad eyes (hence my glasses), but does it look a little darker outside to anyone else than it usually does for snow events? My room isn't being lit by the open window like it normally does (even during snow events).

 

Yes I was thinking the same earlier. Usually a sign of convection possibility

[Tom]

The back end of this system is going to be the worst part of the storm.  Radar looks amazing just east of the Des Moines area.  Man this thing is moving fast....what's the hurry honey??  SLOW down!  Hahaha

[Money]

Thundersnow being reported at CMI.

 

.6+ QPF for Chicago on the 12z RGEM

[East Dubzz]

Heavy snow right now! Nice!

[Madtown]

updated la crosse map