2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm

[Scott26]

The office downplaying this may well be the luck we need to get off the schneid of nickels and dimes.  You can tell I'm somewhat superstitious.

Or that Lake Effect Snowing Warning that really didn't work out for you guys lol

[Trinomial]

my point just switched back to 3-5 from 3 - 7 an hour ago.

[Geos]

Geos, just think it's funny that the pin points went down and then their graphic switched to area wide 4-6"

 

Now I just saw that. Actually 2 miles down the road from me.

 

The office downplaying this may well be the luck we need to get off the schneid of nickels and dimes.  You can tell I'm somewhat superstitious.

 

Well they got burned quite a few times going too high. Lol, that's probably the reasoning behind this forecast.

[Money]

RAP is just beautiful at HR 18. Widespread 35-40 dbz over a large area. Sub 1008 low or so in N. MO

[Geos]

MKX caved. Going with 4-6"

 

[Money]

HRRR at HR 15 is looking solid. Looks a lot like the RAP at the same time period. 35-40 dbz snows developing by 13z

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Now I just saw that. Actually 2 miles down the road from me.

 

 

Well they got burned quite a few times going too high. Lol, that's probably the reasoning behind this forecast.

 

A few times, though other times they were questioned and criticized yet got it right.  New Year's Day was an example.  One of my bigger qualms with them is going bullish so early with some events, and the fact that they now issue hour by hour timelines, which bust more often than not.

[Money]

23z HRRR showing 2-3 IN per hr amounts in SE Iowa with even a spec of 3-4 inch per hour rates. 

 

I seriously think this is going to overperform for some people. 

[Iowawx]

00z nam coming in.

[Money]

NAM is slower/stronger. 

[Money]

18z NAM had 2-3 inch amounts in N. IL

 

0z NAM has 6+ amounts showing up in N. IL

[Money]

Interesting.

 

21z SREF made a huge jump with snow amounts with several members showing 8+ amounts.

 

MKE: 5.22 Mean. Highest: 9.15  Lowest: 0.71 (lol)

 

ORD: 4.39 Mean. Highest: 9.65 Lowest: 1.71

 

OSH: 5.60 Mean. Highest: 9.46  Lowest: 1.67

[Money]

15z SREF Mean:

 

OSH: 3.93  (21z: 5.60)

MKE: 3.28 (21z: 5.22)

ORD: 3.28 (21z: 4.39)

[Tom]

Nice to see the 00z NAM slower and stronger which allows more digging...models getting better sampling and feeding into the ridging out ahead of the system created from the departing Blizzard that hit New England.

[Scott26]

Interesting.

 

21z SREF made a huge jump with snow amounts with several members showing 8+ amounts.

 

MKE: 5.22 Mean. Highest: 9.15  Lowest: 0.71 (lol)

 

ORD: 4.39 Mean. Highest: 9.65 Lowest: 1.71

 

OSH: 5.60 Mean. Highest: 9.46  Lowest: 1.67

Hi-res models finally figured out this isn't just going to be a sheared northern wave. I love when trends get better as we get closer to an event.

[Geos]

NAM says the heaviest snow will be done around dinner time. That should be good timing.

 

12pm

 

 

3pm

 

[Tom]

Intensifying systems are always fun to watch on the radar as there is a higher probability bands wont fade away as they approach your area.  Instead, they increase in intensity and maintain their strength.

[Money]

If I were MKE/LOT I would probably upgrade the WWA to a WSW for 5-7 with isolated higher spots.

 

Plus for the timing of the snow and how it affects the evening commute.

[MarcusBeier]

Im confused with this storm, is it strengthening as it heads east or weakening? Showing higher totals the further west you go from me in SEMI suggests the latter but everyone is saying atleast some if not all models are showing some form of strengthening and lowering pressure as it moves east.

[Trinomial]

NAM says the heaviest snow will be done around dinner time. That should be good timing.

 

12pm

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_018_sim_radar.gif

 

3pm

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_021_sim_radar.gif

 

NAM says the heaviest snow will be done around dinner time. That should be good timing.

 

12pm

 

 

5pm dinner or 7pm dinner?

[Money]

Tom, what are your current thoughts on what's evolving?

[MKEstorm]

MKX caved. Going with 4-6"http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_MKX.png

 

 

Still 2-4 inches in my grid!

[Geos]

5pm dinner or 7pm dinner?

 

It's pulling most of the intense stuff out by 5pm - guessimate. 

 

0z NAM

 

[Madtown]

my point raised to 3-5"

[Tom]

I think the most snowfall amounts are going to be where this system starts going neg and places like IA/WI/IL/N IN are in prime spot for this happening.  Folks in SE MI may not get as much bc the system looses its neg tilt as it lifts to the east.  There are strong dynamics with this system and the high rez models are picking that up.  We are within the 24 hour period and its time we start paying attention to the HRRR/RAP and other high rez models.  Global models are good but they won't see the capacity this system may deliver.  You can also see the 850's tank as this system goes neg and that will really increase snowfall accumulations tomorrow mid morning/afternoon hours.

[Money]

I think we see MKE/LOT go WSW if the 0z model trends continue. 

[Geos]

Kind of odd having that sub 5" area in SE WI. All the way down to 3-3.5" in a few spots.

[Tom]

I agree, this system has everything working for it to become an over performer...

[dubuque473]

4-6" forecast here per a local met

[Tom]

You can see a nice circulation over WY on water vapor imagery...there will be plenty of moisture to work with this system.

[Niko]

My forecast is calling for 4-6". I'll sign for that.

[DominicR]

Feeling good some ares will over perform with this one. There gonna be some impressive hourly rates tom and nice to see the more neg tilt on this.

[The Snowman]

Looking at 3 hour precip totals from the hires NAM, the QPF range from bare minimum to extreme maximum is 0.46" QPF to 1.10" QPF. 

 

For example, if a certain color on the map was green, and the precip range for that color was 0.25" to 0.5", the 0.25" would be bare minimum and 0.5" would be extreme maximum, since 0.25" is the least that can be in that shade of green, and 0.5" is the most. Basically, I added up those minimums and maximums for the whole snow event.

 

5" looking like the floor, ceiling probably around 8" at best. Good range, IMO.

 

Definitely overperformer potential here.

[Trinomial]

Is it just me, or does the 4km NAM have the snow staying around much later than the evening?

[Tony]

With a neg tilt system many things are in play. With very high UVV's there can be intense convection so as I said before we can see lollipops of 10-12"

[DominicR]

If this can over perform ORD could crack 70 out of this but not likely it will be close by tommorow night. We just need a a big one and a moderate one by late Feb/March or several more mod winter snows like this to break record.

[Iowawx]

Latest RAP is showing 1-2 inches per hour when the snow moves through. If this storm wasn't moving as fast as it is, we would be seeing very impressive totals.  Hoping for an overachiever here in Eastern Iowa. 

[DominicR]

With a neg tilt system many things are in play. With very high UVV's there can be intense convection so as I said before we can see lollipops of 10-12"

 

Yeah Tony situation like these when you have convection come into play some localized areas could get whacked.

[Tom]

Looking at the 4km NAM sim radar, you can see an ideal moisture transport coming in from the south and almost wrapping around to the west.  Classic setup with a neg tilt system.

[DominicR]

Latest RAP is showing 1-2 inches per hour when the snow moves through. If this storm wasn't moving as fast as it is, we would be seeing very impressive totals. 

 

Yeah it's really the only downplay to this. It be a huge event but oh well. That's what happens with +NAO systems. Weak and faster.