2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm

[Tom]

RAP for ORD has around .60+ qpf....could see 8"+ out of this by tomorrow.  That would be awesome to hear some thunder rumbling out there tomorrow and especially bc this is a day time snow storm.  There gonna be some nice fatty flakes flying tomorrow!

[DominicR]

RAP for ORD has around .60+ qpf....could see 8"+ out of this by tomorrow.  That would be awesome to hear some thunder rumbling out there tomorrow and especially bc this is a day time snow storm.  There gonna be some nice fatty flakes flying tomorrow!

 

Yeah I say 6-8 inches for new LOT disco coming up for warnings areas.

[DominicR]

I think most areas in WI will do well to like N IL. I would not be surprised if they upgrade in parts of MKE/GRB as well later.

[Money]

NAM increased the precip here again. Now showing .4-.5 qpf across S. WI.

[DominicR]

Not much different with NAM except a narrow band of 6-7 inches in N-C IL through through ORD.

[DominicR]

NAM increased the precip here again. Now showing .4-.5 qpf across S. WI.

 

Yeah looks wetter there and weaker in MI.

[DominicR]

LOT 4-8 inches possibly locally 10!

 

SO FOR THE WARNING ISSUED
OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE AREA WIDE 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES. IF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WERE TO MATERIALIZE...

 

[DominicR]

WGN 9 model shows 7.4 (or around there) for ORD and 6.6 for Chicago (or around there) Seems like most local mets going along with NWS for 4-8 inches.

[dubuque473]

Up to 5-7" here,WSW, possible thundersnow and gusts up to 25. Would be interesting to see all that in a 6 hour window! 

 

DVN also mentions Thursday night could be a winter storm for a period...

[DominicR]

Winter storm warnings out for MKE! 6-7+ parts of NE DVN as well for 5-7!

[DominicR]

Looking at 06z NAM reflectvitiy radar might get a quick inch or 2am at 7am with narrow band heading towards Pontiac then a break before real stuff starts to come in around 10-11 or so.

[DominicR]

That one one heck of solid band moving north of Peoria to Champaign. NAM refectivity showing a solid band of 35dbz in NE IL early afternoon. Nasty rates during solid 4-6 period.

[dubuque473]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/arx/wx/File.png

[DominicR]

How the latest RAP looking and does everyone have good website for it that includes QPF?

[abhidupage]

About .4-.5" range don't got exact amounts but heres graphic of total precip from it.

 

[Madtown]

lol mke  lets get it rolling

[DominicR]

RAP shows this ending not until about 9pm tonight across far NE IL. Looks to hang possibly a few extra hrs though most areas should dry out by 7pm. Radar does not look impressive but should fill in the next few hours.

[6789]

Moderate of heavy snow here in st charles, I have only seen 1 plow and the roads are beginning to get a glaze of snow on them

[Madtown]

one of the sillier snow maps I think I have seen

[Iowawx]

Big Flakes are falling in Iowa right now, coming down real good, and the main band of snow is still around 90 miles to the west. 

[Tom]

This storm is starting to fill in nicely and some very heavy snow already being reported in Aurora with 1/4 mile visibility with the 1st small initial band making its way through the area.  The storm will begin to deepen and rapidly intensify around Noon today and start going neg tilt and that's when I expect to see the radar just blossom.  If you like meteorology, this is the type of snowstorm that just makes you smile!

[WBadgersW]

one of the sillier snow maps I think I have seen

 

They are setting themselves up to bust with that map.

[DominicR]

I am hearing latest RAP is going down with QPF in NE IL.

[FV-Mike]

Just drove through Aurora and visability was down to zero. That little band is packing a punch

[Tom]

I wouldn't worry about that Dominick, models bounce back and forth as storm is imminent.  This is a nowcast event and just watch the radars.  HRRR shows the heaviest snow to fall from 12-7pm for NE IL.

[Sciascia]

Nothing much here yet. Patiently waiting...

[Madtown]

Radar just really filled in in NW IL

[Madtown]

Snow started about 15 min ago and big flakes now little flakes and SN

[Geos]

one of the sillier snow maps I think I have seen

 

What the...

 

It is easy to hear the wind today from inside the building. Saw some snownadoes in the open fields this morning.

 

12z RAP

 

[abhidupage]

I am hearing latest RAP is going down with QPF in NE IL.

I wouldn't worry too much either, rap didn't pick up on this intial band as well. Radar is really starting to fill still think were in a good spot

[Money]

nam still has .4-.5 qpf btw with specs of .5+

[Tom]

Ya, N IL/S WI is in a good spot, esp when this thing starts to go neg and the precip gets thrown back west into N IL/S WI toward early evening.

[DominicR]

Ya, N IL/S WI is in a good spot, esp when this thing starts to go neg and the precip gets thrown back west into N IL/S WI toward early evening.

 

Maybe some lake enhancement thrown into it towards last few hrs.

[Tom]

Looking at the visible satellite imagery, you can see the bubbly cloud tops out in W IL/E IA indicating vertical upward motion where the best forcing and lift is currently.  When the SLP tracks into IL it will start phasing and taking on neg tilt...I expect the radar to explode around 11:00am or so.

[Tom]

Dom, with this system we won't get any LehS...winds not favorable and not the right set up.

[DominicR]

Looking at the visible satellite imagery, you can see the bubbly cloud tops out in W IL/E IA indicating vertical upward motion where the best forcing and lift is currently.  When the SLP tracks into IL it will start phasing and taking on neg tilt...I expect the radar to explode around 11:00am or so.

 

It already is impressive. Look at that slug moving in from C IL. Should hit us around 10:30-11am.

[DominicR]

Some mod snow now but this band is becoming dead compared to hr ago. Hopefully nice quick coating.

[Geos]

Maybe some lake enhancement thrown into it towards last few hrs.

 

SE winds today, plus there is too much ice on the lake now. I think the lake is shut down until next season.

[Tony]

Reading some exerpts from Americanwx forums is quite amusing especially from this guy ALEK. I usually don't want to talk about anyone as everyone has their own opinion but he is always low balling and looking only at model runs instead of looking at the complete picture. Now I am no Met and don't know much but 2.8 will not happen from this system...I just don't get it.

[Tom]

Ya, it certainly does but going to get even better.  We haven't seen a system like this all season long...only if it didn't have to move so fast.