May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

What would we put on cereal if cows were rudderless?

[TT-SEA]

What would we put on cereal if cows were rudderless?

 

You are thinking of udderless.   That is a common mistake.   

[ShawniganLake]

You just made Tim's day.

 

Any mention of it being cooler than the last two, at least?

Didn't read through it all. Looks like the heat is focussed over the interior west, but that's not a big surprise.

[Jesse]

Didn't read through it all. Looks like the heat is focussed over the interior west, but that's not a big surprise.

To be fair, it looks like he is forecasting pretty much all of Canada to be either warm or very warm/hot this summer. We are actually underneath the orange part, luckily not the red.

 

 

His reasoning for the west coast is interesting:

 

"Along the immediate West Coast, the summer will be slightly warmer than normal thanks in part to the large area of above-normal sea surface temperatures over the northeast Pacific. Increasingly dry soils over British Columbia will also enhance summertime warmth."

[Jesse]

No mention of the building La Niña anywhere in that outlook.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is still messy in the long-term... to use Jesse's preferred terminology.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-5OX3Da.png

[MossMan]

According to Cliff Mass, "Troughzilla" will be with us for a little while and that we need to protect our Tomato's and get our sweaters washed and ready. Even though I am a huge fan of warm to hot and dry weather this time of the year, I do have the urge to take a drive up the North Cascades Highway sometime over the next few days as it sounds like the snow level will be down as low as 4,000ft.

[Jesse]

According to Cliff Mass, "Troughzilla" will be with us for a little while and that we need to protect our Tomato's and get our sweaters washed and ready. Even though I am a huge fan of warm to hot and dry weather this time of the year, I do have the urge to take a drive up the North Cascades Highway sometime over the next few days as it sounds like the snow level will be down as low as 4,000ft.

Sweaters? Highs will be in the mid-60s most days.

 

Troughzilla will take us down to normal. Maybe a bit below for whoever gets lucky and gets a good all-day soaking.

[TT-SEA]

Sweaters? Highs will be in the mid-60s most days.

Troughzilla will take us down to normal. Maybe a bit below for whoever gets lucky and gets a good all-day soaking.

Its a ridge then!

[Jesse]

Its a ridge then!

I will hand it to you. That was clever.

[bainbridgekid]

You are thinking of udderless.   That is a common mistake.   

Utterly unforgivable. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen seems to think there is little chance of a "cool" summer. Though he said that does not necessarily mean it will be "hot."

[ShawniganLake]

No mention of the building La Niña anywhere in that outlook.

Meh. It's summer, ENSO is overrated.

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen seems to think there is little chance of a "cool" summer. Though he said that does not necessarily mean it will be "hot."

Crazy mofo.

[Front Ranger]

No mention of the building La Niña anywhere in that outlook.

 

Hard to believe since this forum is so hyper-aware of it, but it is a very recent development, as far as the actual anomalies surfacing.

 

Looks like he's just going with rudderless persistence.

[Front Ranger]

Utterly unforgivable. 

 

Did you mean to write "udderly"?  

[Deweydog]

Do they still make Nutter Butters?

[Jesse]

Meh. It's summer, ENSO is overrated.

I don't know. He had a lot to say about El Niño during his summer outlook last year.

 

Considering it is looking like we will be in a Niña within a month, it seems worth mentioning to me. ENSO lag notwithstanding.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know. He had a lot to say about El Niño during his summer outlook last year.

Considering it is looking like we will be in a Niña within a month, it seems worth mentioning to me. ENSO lag notwithstanding.

I agree. It is worth mentioning because the warm anomalies are likely to fade later in the summer.

[ShawniganLake]

I don't know. He had a lot to say about El Niño during his summer outlook last year.

 

Considering it is looking like we will be in a Niña within a month, it seems worth mentioning to me. ENSO lag notwithstanding.

Good point, although I don't specifically remember his forecast for last summer. Just seems like overall, ENSO correlations are pretty weak during the summer in comparison to winter.

[Jesse]

Good point, although I don't specifically remember his forecast for last summer. Just seems like overall, ENSO correlations are pretty weak during the summer in comparison to winter.

They certainly are. Even so, I was still surprised to hear no mention. Not that it matters.

[ShawniganLake]

I agree. It is worth mentioning because the warm anomalies are likely to fade later in the summer.

They faded to some degree last summer as well. September was legitimately cool here. With the opposite ENSO trends.

[Jesse]

A few hours late, but cooling NW winds have now arrived here. Ahhh...

[TT-SEA]

They faded to some degree last summer as well. September was legitimately cool here. With the opposite ENSO trends.

 

 

True.

 

ENSO is not a big driver of our summer weather.   1995 featured a developing Nina and had the 3rd warmest September on record at PDX.

 

Nonetheless... I think June and July will be well above normal and either August or September might be a little below normal based on history.  

[Phil]

Surprised to see the 18z GFS/12z EPS both develop a stable Niña forcing/-AAM background. That typically doesn't happen until July/August.

 

If this is legitimate, I'm probably going to bust warm in both June and July.

[Front Ranger]

True.

 

ENSO is not a big driver of our summer weather.   1995 featured a developing Nina and had the 3rd warmest September on record at PDX.

 

Nonetheless... I think June and July will be well above normal and either August or September might be a little below normal based on history.  

 

At the same time, if you look at all the years where -ENSO was developing by summer.

 

1954: Very cool Aug/Sep

1964: Very cool Aug/Sep

1970: Cool Aug/Sep

1973: Very cool Aug/average Sep

1983: Average Aug/very cool Sep

1988: Coolish Aug/Sep

1995: Cool Aug/very warm Sep

1998: Warm Aug/Sep

2005: Average Aug/very cool Sep

2007: Coolish Aug/Sep

2010: Average Aug/Sep

 

Overall, a tendency much more towards a cool second half of summer. Seems like a very good chance that at least one of those months is easily below normal for the region, and a decent chance that both are below normal.

[TT-SEA]

At the same time, if you look at all the years where -ENSO was developing by summer.

 

1954: Very cool Aug/Sep

1964: Very cool Aug/Sep

1970: Cool Aug/Sep

1973: Very cool Aug/average Sep

1983: Average Aug/very cool Sep

1988: Coolish Aug/Sep

1995: Cool Aug/very warm Sep

1998: Warm Aug/Sep

2005: Average Aug/very cool Sep

2007: Coolish Aug/Sep

2010: Average Aug/Sep

 

Overall, a tendency much more towards a cool second half of summer. 

 

 

Yes... I agree on the overall tendency.

[Front Ranger]

Yes... I agree on the overall tendency.

 

Strange you cited Sep 1995 then, an obvious exception.

[TT-SEA]

Strange you cited Sep 1995 then, an obvious exception.

 

I was just giving an example in response to Shawnigan's statement about how last summer cooled down later with a developing Nino.      Citing an example of the opposite occurred with a Nina developing.

[ShawniganLake]

A few hours late, but cooling NW winds have now arrived here. Ahhh...

Fairly gusty NW winds here this afternoon. We actually hit our high for the day around 9am. Beautiful clear blue skies this evening though.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty evening...

 

http://s32.postimg.org/4t7yaghj9/nb34.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Fairly gusty NW winds here this afternoon. We actually hit our high for the day around 9am. Beautiful clear blue skies this evening though.

 

Looks like there's a decent band of rain moving across the central island. It's slowly sliding south so maybe we'll catch some showers a bit later.

[Bryant]

Looks like there's a decent band of rain moving across the central island. It's slowly sliding south so maybe we'll catch some showers a bit later.

Had a decent bit of rain here in Ferndale

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Had a decent bit of rain here in Ferndale

 

Looks like there's a heavy shower popping up next to Ferndale now. You could be in a good spot for picking up on the convergence between the Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca.

[TT-SEA]

Cold and wet holiday weekend on the 00Z GFS...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Cold and wet holiday weekend on the 00Z GFS...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

Looks troughy.

[Bryant]

Looks like there's a heavy shower popping up next to Ferndale now. You could be in a good spot for picking up on the convergence between the Strait of Georgia and Juan de Fuca.

Not watching radar, but the rain is pretty consistent right now. Why can't this ever happen during the winter?

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like there's a decent band of rain moving across the central island. It's slowly sliding south so maybe we'll catch some showers a bit later.

Looks like Nanaimo picked up close to 1/2" in places. Just broken skies here to the south. I usually find that when there is a C zone to our E or SE, things end up being pretty dry here locally. That could change towards the morning though.

[Jesse]

Memorial Day weekend is still up in the air, but has been trending troughier the last two runs on both the GFS and Euro.

[Jesse]

Just scattered light showers this morning. Hopefully we can get some heavier stuff later on.