May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Here are the Eugene, OR rainfall stats, in case anyone needs evidence that the recent "record wet" weather is confined mostly to SEA, Tim's house and a few other locations in the far NW part of Washington State:

 

EUG Rainfall

 

2013 - 21.19 (-23.37)

2014 - 41.30 (-3.26)

2015 - 32.24 (-12.32)

2016 - 19.93 (-2.81)

 

Now let's not start forgetting PDX and even other metro cities in that area. PDX set their record wettest winter and wettest December ever. That would include beating the '95-'96 winter during the infamous floods. When I took the amtrak to the station in early December and visited Wilsonville, it seemed equally as wet there too.

 

And if my memory serves me well, didn't PDX set their record wettest winter back in February? I recall Mark posting something about a record around a month before the season was over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This winter was anomalously wet from about Salem/Albany northward.  

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z Canadian is much more ridgy for the weekend.   Huge differences between the GFS and the Canadian just a few days out.     

 

The 12Z Canadian is also much more ridgy for Sunday/Monday than its own 00Z run... so its not even trending toward a compromise but actually going farther away from the GFS.

 

Here is Sunday afternoon from the 12Z Canadian:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_108_0000.gif

 

 

And Monday afternoon:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

 

 

Compared to the 12Z GFS for Sunday and Monday afternoons:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht.gif

[ShawniganLake]

This winter was anomalously wet from about Salem/Albany northward.

Further north, it was wet here, but not record setting in southern BC.

 

Even more north, Prince Rupert on the BC north coast was very dry. I believe they were around 60% of normal precip during the November-March period with only 30". Seattle probably had more than that....maybe the jet stream is sinking south.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's a bit misleading to talk about 2015-2016 being an overall anomalously wet winter for Portland or Salem without acknowledging that the amounts are skewed by a couple of crazy-wet storms during a brief period in early-mid December. 

 

Otherwise, their overall winter totals would be only slightly wetter than average.

 

Eugene missed out on most of that December action.

 

Then why was the Dec-Feb period also record wettest for Portland? There were some soaking fronts in January and February too. If you thought late winter was like 2014 or 2015 you're wrong.

 

Nothing is being skewed here. And there was also a record of consecutive rainy days set in December (21 in 2016. 20 was the previous record in 2001). 

 

There's no way a couple storms in the 1st week of Dec can dictate a wettest winter. That's just not possible.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/02/17/wettest-winter-on-record-at-pdx/

[BLI snowman]

This winter was anomalously wet from about Salem/Albany northward.  

 

More like Redding northward, actually. 

 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF says that the Central Sound is the only place that really gets pounded with rain with the weekend system.   This is just one 3-hour frame from Saturday evening.   

 

http://s33.postimg.org/7wj9x4a5a/mem1.jpg

 

 

Then is much more ridgy for Monday than its 00Z run with 500mb heights up to 576DM.   

 

Why not dump rain just on the area of the region that has been the wettest place this year?  

 

Nature needs to spread it around more. 

[TT-SEA]

Sure do like the look of the first weekend of June.    Starting to plan accordingly.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-c93VXr.png

[DareDuck]

More like Redding northward, actually.

 

DJF16PNormNWSWR.png

Wow many areas of central and eastern Washington received >150% of normal while most of central and eastern Oregon struggled to get above average.

[Abbotsford_wx]

That map is helpful.  It would be even more helpful if it extended into Canada to show that the northern boundary of above-normal precipitation occurred about where this map ends.

 

I stand corrected on the width of the band of above-normal precipitation, and I see that Eugene was in a relatively dry zone compared to the U.S. PNW at large.

 

 

I still say the big December storms skewed the overall numbers way upward, and one of the comments on the linked blog supports this notion.

 

Up here we were basically near normal..  96% of normal at Abbotsford for October-March. Having said that, there were some areas that were wetter relative to normal, particularly near the mountains to our north.

[Phil]

Its been wet overall for the last couple years from PDX northward. The difference between up here and down there is dramatic. Its in the top 5 wettest 2-year period ever for Seattle and 2016 is off to the races again so far.

 

I can't help but think this north/south gradient is somewhat related to a warming climate and a slowly northward migrating jet stream.

Poleward migrating Hadley Cells are to be expected in a warming climate (chicken/egg aside), but only about 8-11% of the observed poleward migration can be attributed to the aforementioned warming. The vast majority of the shift requires another explanation.

[Front Ranger]

More like Redding northward, actually. 

 

DJF16PNormNWSWR.png

 

Love these maps.

[BLI snowman]

Love these maps.

 

They are absolutey breathtaking. 

[Front Ranger]

They are absolutey breathtaking.

Totally. I have one framed on my living room wall.

 

I just like all the different time frames and areas you can plug in on that site.

[TT-SEA]

Excellent support from the ECMWF ensembles for its operational run showing strong ridging later next week.

 

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-vSBem_.png

[Jesse]

Today's another little overachiever.

 

With the last two days of the month trending well above normal now, a record warm May could still be on the table.

[Front Ranger]

Today's another little overachiever.

 

With the last two days of the month trending well above normal now, a record warm May could still be on the table.

 

Here's where all the major stations stand.

 

BLI: 1 degree below record

SEA: .4 degree below record

OLM: 1.8 degree below record

PDX: .8 degree below record

Downtown Portland: 2.9 degrees below record

SLE: .5 degree below record

EUG: 1.5 degree below record

[Phil]

The "blob" is taking a beating. Maybe the upcoming +PNA episode can grant it a temporary stay.

 

http://www.coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[TT-SEA]

Yeah.... the 'blob' is going to make a strong come back in June.

[Phil]

Yeah.... the 'blob' is going to make a strong come back in June.

I wouldn't say "strong" comeback, especially if that trough ends up in the GOA vs south of the Aleutians.

 

I'm not sure it matters in the end, regardless. Just fun to track.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't say "strong" comeback, especially if that trough ends up in the GOA vs south of the Aleutians.

 

I'm not sure it matters in the end, regardless. Just fun to track.

 

Probably not... but I suspect it will take until probably October for the PDO to go negative.   Maybe November.  

[Phil]

Probably not... but I suspect it will take until probably October for the PDO to go negative. Maybe November.

Could be even later. That central Pacific cold pool will take longer to erode than the warm waters along the west coast, which will probably cool fairly quickly during mid/late summer.

[Phil]

Update on the next month. Looks like a fun ride.

 

The next two weeks look very Niño/+AAM, forcing wise. Will probably get westerly anomalies back over the Equatorial Pacific for a bit, with a +PNA tendency looking likely for the first 15-20 days of June, before a significant transition thereafter.

 

As alluded to beforehand, the next IO/MT wave is already showing up in the long range, with subsidence progged to begin to propagating over the Pacific during mid-June. A consensus is growing for a legitimate flip in the forcing/AAM state beginning in late June. So, expect a transition into a Niña/-PNA circulation sometime in the final week of June.

 

Here's a nice illustration of the forcing in reference. Green indicates lift/divergence aloft (anomalous convection) while orange indicates subsidence/convergence aloft (anomalous sinking).

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052518&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Bryant]

Update on the next month. Looks like a fun ride.

 

The next two weeks look very Niño/+AAM, forcing wise. Will probably get westerly anomalies back over the Equatorial Pacific for a bit, with a +PNA tendency looking likely for the first 15-20 days of June, before a significant transition thereafter.

 

As alluded to beforehand, the next IO/MT wave is already showing up in the long range, with subsidence progged to begin to propagating over the Pacific during mid-June. A consensus is growing for a legitimate flip in the forcing/AAM state beginning in late June. So, expect a transition into a Niña/-PNA circulation sometime in the final week of June.

 

Here's a nice illustration of the forcing in reference. Green indicates lift/divergence aloft (anomalous convection) while orange indicates subsidence/convergence aloft (anomalous sinking).

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052518&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Nice shot of the Easterlies during their peak wind burst

 

http://i.imgur.com/LGdIVZl.jpg

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS digging in its heels for Memorial Day.   Completely different than the Canadian or ECMWF... but given that we are basically 4 days away and trending stronger makes me think its right.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_111_500_vort_ht.gif

[Jesse]

Come on GFS!

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian for Monday afternoon:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Phil]

Man, epic pattern by June standards on the clown range GFS. Incredible jet extension preceding the flip to -AAM/-PNA.

[Deweydog]

What's the weather supposed to do Monday?

[Bryant]

What's the weather supposed to do Monday?

Upset some, while making some happy

[TT-SEA]

What's the weather supposed to do Monday?

 

 

Looks mostly sunny on the 00Z ECMWF... highs in the low to mid 70s.

 

Memorial Day perfection for most everyone if it works out.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The Strait of Georgia has sure warmed up quickly with this pattern. Widespread 16~17C (60F+) pockets are starting to appear; typically it continues getting warmer until about early/mid August and cools down quickly in the fall.

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/washngtn.fc.gif

[TT-SEA]

Starting to look like next week might not be so warm.

[MossMan]

Starting to look like next week might not be so warm.

Well shoot.

[TT-SEA]

Well shoot.

 

Memorial Day looks great... so we have that!

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z ECMWF still looks very warm for next week.

[Front Ranger]

Warmest spring on record so far in many places.

 

There has been plenty for you to be happy about. 

 

Warm weather is like crack for some people.

[BLI snowman]

And the 12Z ECMWF still looks very warm for next week.

 

80s will be widespread next week for several days on either model. I'd say that qualifies as a warm week. 

[TT-SEA]

In fact... the 12Z ECMWF is much warmer than even its own 00Z run for next week.

[BLI snowman]

Warm weather is like crack for some people.

 

There are a good many folks on this forum that need to be shipped to Colombia as soon as possible. Lots of both there.