May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

No kidding. They were specifically saying it HAS been wet up here. Spurred me to check by how much since the beginning of 2014.

 

Its been warm and wet. You have been driving the warm part into the ground... so I do my part on the wet.

Whatever makes you feel normal.

[Jesse]

0.15" in May to this point up here. Off the top of my head, April had only 0.66". We must be in the running for a top tier warm and dry April/May period.

Quick Tim, post the SEA stats again! The people must know.

[TT-SEA]

Whatever makes you feel normal.

 

 

Have you not been repeatedly reminding us how warm its been the last couple years for months?   Some would say driving it into the ground.  

[Jesse]

Have not been repeatedly reminding us how warm its been the last couple years for months? Some would say driving it into the ground.

Nowhere near your level. Matt might say so, but he has been PMSing lately so I wouldn't take him too seriously.

[TT-SEA]

Quick Tim, post the SEA stats again! The people must know.

 

 

That was for the last couple years and in reference to a post about the north/south gradient the last couple years.

 

I already stated specifically that OLM and parts of Vancouver Island have the same shadowing effect in this pattern and was trying to convince Jared it might end up being the driest May ever there. 

[TT-SEA]

Nowhere near your level. Matt might say so, but he has been PMSing lately so I wouldn't take him too seriously.

 

 

Wait... I have been mentioning that its been wet for the last couple years more often than you have made repeated references to the extreme warmth the last couple years??     Really?   

[Jesse]

Wait... I have been mentioning that its been wet for the last couple year more often than you have made repeated references to the extreme warmth the last couple years?? Really?

Sounds about right. Yes.

 

Now hurry, start counting those posts! I'm sure your wife doesn't want you to come to bed anyway.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds about right. Yes.

 

Now hurry, start counting those posts! I'm sure your wife doesn't want you to come to bed anyway.

 

Silly.   You mention it so often that you don't even notice now.

 

You are surly tonight.  

[ShawniganLake]

On a bit of an OT note, that wildfire that destroyed thousands of buildings in Fort McMurray Alberta has now scorched an incredible 1.3 million acres. Costliest natural disaster in Canadian history.

[TT-SEA]

On a bit of an OT note, that wildfire that destroyed thousands of buildings in Fort McMurray Alberta has now scorched an incredible 1.3 million acres. Costliest natural disaster in Canadian history.

 

 

Has all of Vancouver Island been dry this month?     Could be some fires there if the pattern turns hot in June like Phil is predicting.  

[Timmy Supercell]

I noticed there has been a lack of freezing or cooler lows this month in Klamath Falls. Sub-freezing lows should still be a normal occurrence up to June. I have had only 1 low below freezing which was 05/09. Coldest temp only 31 degrees. I compiled a list of the last 15 May's and number of sub-freezing occurrences. There are quite a few of them. Only 2006 had 1 the entire month.
I added the monthly minimum temperature for each year as well. It's not out of the ordinary to see a couple lows in the 20's in late Spring, occasionally even colder than that (05/01/2008 had 17 for a low).

 

Also noteworthy to mention the average low temp in the first week of May is 34 degrees. Very high odds of

 

Lows 32 or colder in May

 

2016: 1 (as of 05/24) (min of 31)
2015: 9 (min of 24)
2014: 6 (min of 24)
2013: 11 (min of 23)
2012: 10 (min of 23)
2011: 17 (min of 23)
2010: 14 (min of 18)
2009: 5 (min of 26)
2008: 8 (min of 17)
2007: 9 (min of 23)
2006: 1 (min of 28)
2005: 3 (min of 31)
2004: 5 (min of 28)
2003: 9 (min of 24)
2002: 11 (min of 24)
2001: 8 (min of 24)
2000: 5 (min of 25)

[Deweydog]

Silly. You mention it so often that you don't even notice now.

 

You are surly tonight.

He wears many hats.

[Front Ranger]

Almost assured that the next 2.5 years will be drier here than the last 2.5 years.

Global Wettening.

[Timmy Supercell]

Average high for May 2016 so far doesn't seem really all that warm either. As of 05/24 I have a running avg of 66.2 degrees, that would make only 25th warmest average high, yet somehow I'm dodging all those freezing lows at the same time.

[Front Ranger]

Sounds about right. Yes.

 

Now hurry, start counting those posts! I'm sure your wife doesn't want you to come to bed anyway.

Ice burn!!

[Deweydog]

Breezy out!

[ShawniganLake]

Has all of Vancouver Island been dry this month? Could be some fires there if the pattern turns hot in June like Phil is predicting.

Not much widespread rain, some more frequent showers to the north. Most of the east side of the island is in high fire danger currently.

[TT-SEA]

He wears many hats.

 

Must be the ridging in the models tonight.

 

I am his whipping boy.   Name calling and mocking my marriage during an actual weather discussion with no reference to him at all.   

[Jesse]

Must be the ridging in the models tonight.

 

I am his whipping boy. Name calling and mocking my marriage during an actual weather discussion with no reference to him at all.

Oh settle. Today has just been one of those days here. There was that huge conflagration earlier completely centered around you, that I had nothing to do with. Must be because I complain about warmth non-stop while you are an angel.

[TT-SEA]

Oh settle. Today has just been one of those days here. There was that huge conflagration earlier completely centered around you, that I had nothing to do with. Must be because I complain about warmth non-stop while you are an angel.

 

 

Sure.   

[Jesse]

Cooling off nicely this evening.

[Phil]

December was not Nino-like.

I'd argue it was very Niño-like, perhaps the most niño-like month on record. Classic Niño-like AAM belts and general circulation.

 

The difference was the typical cell structure was biased poleward, due to a record breaking +NAM/+PV (+AAM biased poleward, detriment to SoCal/STJ) a record breaking +QBO (boosts off-equator convection, expands HCs, strengthens early-winter PV, favors +NAM) and a compromised O^3/BDC machine via excessive H2O loading from the Niño (strengthens PV, favors +NAM).

[DareDuck]

Total rain at SEA... normal annual rainfall is 38.64 inches.

 

2014 - 48.50 (+9.86)

2015 - 44.83 (+6.19)

2016 - 16.93 (+4.04)

 

Its been wet up here.

Seems to support what I was saying. I would think PDX and SLE would reflect similar numbers. EUG hasn't been above average any of those years I think. I could be wrong though. I wonder what YVR has been over those years.

[Front Ranger]

Seems to support what I was saying. I would think PDX and SLE would reflect similar numbers. EUG hasn't been above average any of those years I think. I could be wrong though. I wonder what YVR has been over those years.

How about DCA?

[TT-SEA]

I'd argue it was very Niño-like, perhaps the most niño-like month on record. Classic Niño-like AAM belts and general circulation.

 

The difference was the typical cell structure was biased poleward, due to a record breaking +NAM/+PV (+AAM biased poleward, detriment to SoCal/STJ) a record breaking +QBO (boosts off-equator convection, expands HCs, strengthens early-winter PV, favors +NAM) and a compromised O^3/BDC machine via excessive H2O loading from the Niño (strengthens PV, favors +NAM).

 

 

Yes... everything was shifted north.

 

The result here was very Nina-like with record snow in the mountains and record-setting rain in the lowlands.

[DareDuck]

Average high for May 2016 so far doesn't seem really all that warm either. As of 05/24 I have a running avg of 66.2 degrees, that would make only 25th warmest average high, yet somehow I'm dodging all those freezing lows at the same time.

Interesting you've only had 1 low

[DareDuck]

How about DCA?

Eh, I'm more of a BWI guy.

[Phil]

Yes... everything was shifted north.

 

The result here was very Nina-like with record snow in the mountains and record-setting rain in the lowlands.

Maybe it technically was Niña-like, in your particular region.

 

Globally and hemispherically, it was definitely Niño-ish, though. I think we can agree on that.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe it technically was Niña-like, in your particular region.

Globally and hemispherically, it was definitely Niño-ish, though. I think we can agree on that.

Probably a fair assessment.

[BLI snowman]

Seems to support what I was saying. I would think PDX and SLE would reflect similar numbers. EUG hasn't been above average any of those years I think. I could be wrong though. I wonder what YVR has been over those years.

 

2015 was pretty average in northern WA and B.C. in terms of precip. 2010-14 was consistently wet there, though.

[Tyler Mode]

Visible shows us socked in solidly west of the Cascade crest.

 

Looks gloomy today and probably for a few days.

 

The last two days turned out much nicer than I expected.

[ShawniganLake]

The opposite is true up this way.  It has cleared off nicely this morning, after being mostly cloudy the last couple days with only a few sunny periods later in the day. 

[Jesse]

Nice and cloudy here.

[Tyler Mode]

I think we have a chance to get a cooler morning as we transition out of this strong marine-influenced weather into some more warm afternoons.  My average low the last 12 days is 49.8.  That's great for the garden, but that's about it.

[Jesse]

I think we have a chance to get a cooler morning as we transition out of this strong marine-influenced weather into some more warm afternoons. My average low the last 12 days is 49.8. That's great for the garden, but that's about it.

Perhaps, but even with the warmer weather earlier in the month, mornings were quite mild overall.

 

This is probably one of the only Mays in history that has failed to drop below 45 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

I can't wait for next week... it will have been pretty much cloudy here for 2 weeks by Saturday.    

 

Sunshine will be very welcome.  

[TT-SEA]

Here are the Eugene, OR rainfall stats, in case anyone needs evidence that the recent "record wet" weather is confined mostly to SEA, Tim's house and a few other locations in the far NW part of Washington State:

 

EUG Rainfall

 

2013 - 21.19 (-23.37)

2014 - 41.30 (-3.26)

2015 - 32.24 (-12.32)

2016 - 19.93 (-2.81)

 

 

Its been wet overall for the last couple years from PDX northward.    The difference between up here and down there is dramatic.    Its in the top 5 wettest 2-year period ever for Seattle and 2016 is off to the races again so far.

 

I can't help but think this north/south gradient is somewhat related to a warming climate and a slowly northward migrating jet stream.

[Jesse]

I can't help but think this north/south gradient is somewhat related to a warming climate and a slowly northward migrating jet stream.

I don't think it's that black and white.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think it's that black and white.

 

 

Probably not... it never is.

[MossMan]

I can't wait for next week... it will have been pretty much cloudy here for 2 weeks by Saturday.    

 

Sunshine will be very welcome.  

Yeah these cloudy days are starting to get old, I am ready to get back to summer type weather and start enjoying the lake!