June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

Yeah this was a bust. We all over estimated the strength of the blob. It looks to be cooling off rapidly. This is a good sign because that means we might have a much colder and snowier upcoming winter to look forward too. La Nina is coming soon.

Exactly. 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah this was a bust. We all over estimated the strength of the blob. It looks to be cooling off rapidly. This is a good sign because that means we might have a much colder and snowier upcoming winter to look forward too. La Nina is coming soon.

 

Every day in this coming January will probably be colder than forecast.

[Deweydog]

PDX had W winds all the way through peak heating. This event really didn't have offshore flow.

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPDX.html

Those were boundary layer winds. Gradients were and still are offshore.

[TT-SEA]

Didn't say it was a "big" bust but when the GFS and ECMWF were saying that it would be at or above 100º for PDX (official high was 97º) and SEA was a pretty "big" bust for many.

 

Just noting a trend beginning where it seems like you can notch highs down a couple degrees from what the model outputs are as of late. Over the past 2 years it's been the exact opposite.  

 

 

I have not noticed that at all with the MOS guidance.   We have generally been running above guidance consistently stiill

[Deweydog]

Yeah but in a true offshore flow event to get maximum heating the winds come from the E. Today it was mostly from the N.

This was an offshore flow event. It just happened to not maximize dry mixing at the lowest levels. A month from now it would have been 100 or so. Today, not so much.

[TT-SEA]

This warm spell also includes some humidity... dewpoints in the low 60s today SEA and PDX.

 

Might have been a small factor in holding temps down as well.

[Jesse]

This was an offshore flow event. It just happened to not maximize dry mixing at the lowest levels. A month from now it would have been 100 or so. Today, not so much.

What changes between now and early July, mechanics wise? It's not like sun angle is a factor at this point.

 

Has the land simply not warmed up as much yet?

[BLI snowman]

I have not noticed that at all with the MOS guidance.   We have generally been running above guidance consistently stiill

 

Yeah, I'm trying to think of the last period that "underachieved" temp wise. Outside of inversions/deformation zone situations the last two years, it has been and continues to be difficult. 

[James Jones]

This warm spell also includes some humidity... dewpoints in the low 60s today SEA and PDX.

 

Might have been a small factor in holding temps down as well.

It feels like a Midwest summer night outside right now, though probably not so much up in your area. PDX is still at 80 degrees, dewpoint at 60.

[TT-SEA]

It feels like a Midwest summer night outside right now, though probably not so much up in your area. PDX is still at 80 degrees, dewpoint at 60.

 

 

Its pretty nice out there... 73 with a dewpoint of 62 here right now after 11 p.m.

[TT-SEA]

WRF does not show much of any rain until Friday evening here... the some heavy rain into Saturday.  

[TT-SEA]

New 00Z ECMWF puts SEA right around 90 tomorrow and keeps PDX below 100.   

 

Not much in the way of high clouds though.   That gets shunted to the southeast.

[Deweydog]

What changes between now and early July, mechanics wise? It's not like sun angle is a factor at this point.

 

Has the land simply not warmed up as much yet?

 

I'm sure there's a physical explanation for seasonal lag, but that's beyond my pay grade.  It's just established that air masses a month from now warm more efficiently than they do now even with sun angle being essentially the same.  

[Deweydog]

New 00Z ECMWF puts SEA right around 90 tomorrow and keeps PDX below 100.   

 

Not much in the way of high clouds though.   That gets shunted to the southeast.

 

The WRF appears to be playing a little catch up with this event.  It was consistently a little out of sync with the operational all week on the hot side.  It initialized today a little more realistic this evening but still has 925mb temps in the 33-34 range for the metro area tomorrow.  Typically that's a slam dunk for the century mark.  

 

The thermal belt is pretty insane tonight.  Still 86 at Larch Mountain at 11pm with a decent easterly breeze.  70 here in the drainage, only about five miles away.  

[BLI snowman]

Fairly impressive instability progged for tomorrow by our standards. Shame there's nothing to trigger convection. SuperCap.

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is even more disappointing with rain through the week.   Very little through Saturday morning up here.   A little more down in OR.  

 

The ULL seems to stay a little further offshore on this run... and slipping a little father south along the OR coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning.   

[Jesse]

Very nice to have this to look forward to, following the heatwave. Makes it feel more bearable.

 

[Jesse]

The coast was great today. Some pretty wild temp swings over short distances.

[TT-SEA]

Just finished the run... 00Z ECMWF takes almost all the rain with the trough later in the week south of us.   Many places in WA would get nothing if that run verified.   The ULL dives down towards SoCal instead of heading into Montana.   

[Dave]

Crazy warm night here in Eugene for any time of the year.  At my location, currently 75 degrees with a 67 degree dew point.  Enjoying it since it is such an anomaly, but this would be blechy long term.

[Jbolin]

Two pics this morning from W. Sea

 

#1 Nice defined Jellyfish clouds showing strong upper level winds blowing the ice crystals SE

 

#2 A pair of iridescent Sun Dogs looking East

[Jesse]

Low of 67 here in the hills, 65 in EUG. I'd be surprised if numerous max low temperature records weren't set last night, maybe even some monthly ones, but I don't know how to retrieve the data for existing max-low records.

 

I think at very least, a lot of records for earliest high min were blown away.

 

Fits in very well with the trend of the last several years. We tend to get more broad, humid ridges than sharp ones with a well defined area of offshore flow, especially in the summer.

 

One of my favorite hallmarks of heat events up here used to be their brevity and general lack of humidity. But it seems longer, more humid ones with a less extreme peak have become the norm more lately.

[TT-SEA]

I think at very least, a lot of records for earliest high min were blown away.

 

Fits in very well with the trend of the last several years. We tend to get more broad, humid ridges than sharp ones with a well defined area of offshore flow, especially in the summer.

 

One of my favorite hallmarks of heat events up here used to be their brevity and general lack of humidity. But it seems longer, more humid ones with a less exteme peak have become the norm more lately.

 

 

There have probably been other periods in our history in which this was true.

[Deweydog]

There have probably been other periods in our history in which this was true.

I figured whipped Jesse might make a brief return after a 65+ night at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

I figured whipped Jesse might make a brief return after a 65+ night at PDX.

 

 

Considering the models right now... he should be very happy.    

[Jesse]

Considering the models right now... he should be very happy.    

 

I am. Was just pointing out some trends I have noticed the past several years. 

 

My assessment is pretty accurate. Notice I made no mention about whether or not this kind of thing would continue. I have no clue.

[MossMan]

Go away scud clouds! Very warm already however... and humid.

Time to hit the lake!

[TT-SEA]

A nice, slow, and mostly sunny cool down through Friday morning. No flood of marine layer and an immediate flip to the other side. Next weekend is looking pretty cool and cloudy though.

[Jesse]

A nice, slow, and mostly sunny cool down through Friday morning. No flood of marine layer and an immediate flip to the other side. Next weekend is looking pretty cool and cloudy though.

 

Should be a fairly large drop in temps between Tuesday and Wednesday. 

 

But yes, no flood of marine layer. Things will stay too mixed.

[Timmy Supercell]

I had a low of 61 this morning in Klamath Falls. I don't typically start getting 60+ degree lows until July (even in mid summer they are NOT common). Last year I had a couple in June but we all know that was an unusual month. I'm sure I have broken at least a couple record lows already in June so far (59 on 06/01, 55 yesterday, 61 today). If only I have easy access to record warm low temperatures in Klamath Falls.

 

Warm/humid with a pretty turbulent looking sky to my south and east. Earlier this morning there were a couple storms south of the CA border. Overcast since before sunset yesterday. Dewpoints spiked in the mid 50's in the evening briefly which is pretty moist for the Basin.

[TT-SEA]

Should be a fairly large drop in temps between Tuesday and Wednesday. 

 

But yes, no flood of marine layer. Things will stay too mixed.

Yes... I like it.

[Jesse]

Yes... I like it.

 

We all know that is what is most important.

[TT-SEA]

We all know that is what is most important.

Yes.

 

But you were just waxing nostalgic about our old-fashion heat waves so I am little confused about what is really important!

[Jesse]

PDX is currently +4 compared to yesterday at this time.

[Jesse]

Yes.

 

But you were just waxing nostalgic about our old-fashion heat waves so I am little confused about what is really important!

 

Whether or not you like the weather that we are currently having/that is advertised at hour 240.

 

Silly question.

[TT-SEA]

Whether or not you like the weather that we are currently having/that is advertised at hour 240.

 

Silly question.

 

 

Perfect.

[Deweydog]

Great day for 1:00 to 5:00 tournament double-header baseball!

 

(the term "double-header" is two consecutive games, Jesse)

[BLI snowman]

PDX is currently +4 compared to yesterday at this time.

 

Triple digits going to be hard to avoid.

[FroYoBro]

Great day for 1:00 to 5:00 tournament double-header baseball!

 

(the term "double-header" is two consecutive games, Jesse)

 

Yikes. God be with you. 

[Deweydog]

Yikes. God be with you.

And also with you.

 

Let us pray...