June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

You were also predicting a cold-neutral ENSO for 2016-17 as recently as 6 weeks ago, then went strong Niña, now are hedging moderate.

 

Just saying, best not to throw stones in glass houses.

I said I was hoping for cold neutral. I don't really make ENSO forecasts. I just follow your lead entirely on that.

[Phil]

Fair enough.

 

Probably need to take that into account with your forecast through July as well.

 

My guess is that June finishes out with some flat ridging... then another troughy period for the first 7-10 days of July... then generally flat ridging and dry for the rest of July and through August.

Yeah, I'm trying to correct for my apparent bias. Thing is, these intraseasonal waves always flatten/speed up over the Pacific during Niña/-AAM backgrounds, but I didn't think it had developed enough to have the effect that it did. Each time I've tried to account for this error since April, I've still ended up on the slow side. Maddening.

 

I've taken a leap this time and accelerated my timing for orbital wave regression, so hopefully I don't screw it up again.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I'm trying to correct for my apparent bias. Thing is, these intraseasonal waves always flatten/speed up over the Pacific during Niña/-AAM backgrounds, but I didn't think it had developed enough to have the effect that it did. Each time I've tried to account for this error since April, I've still ended up on the slow side. Maddening.

 

I've taken a leap this time and accelerated my timing for orbital wave regression, so hopefully I don't screw it up again.

Good to know. Thanks.

[bainbridgekid]

After an entirely dry, and actually partly-mostly sunny day, it is suddenly absolutely pouring here in Mountlake Terrace. 

 

Amazing how quickly it went from totally dry to a torrential downpour.

 

[bainbridgekid]

SEA did manage to creep up to 60 between hours today.

 

Kinda a bummer. If it's going to be this cold in June you might as well get an interesting sub 60 high out of it.

[Front Ranger]

SEA managed to get to 60 today.

 

Numerous sunbreaks today no doubt helped.

 

But you know who didn't?

 

Shelton

OLM (duh)

Arlington

Tacoma McChord

Bremerton

Puyallup

North Bend

 

50s party.

[bainbridgekid]

Impressive fact courtesy of Scott Sistek:

 

"The weather balloon launch this morning at Forks recorded a temperature of -22 F at 18,000 feet making it the coldest 500mb reading in all of North America (including the Arctic Circle!)"

[TT-SEA]

Impressive fact courtesy of Scott Sistek:

 

"The weather balloon launch this morning at Forks recorded a temperature of -22 F at 18,000 feet making it the coldest 500mb reading in all of North America (including the Arctic Circle!)"

 

 

Anomalous trough!   Its a "supertrough".  

[MossMan]

Saw lumpy rain at the top of Snoqualmie Pass this morning with snow on the trees above the summit. Very windy and cool in Pasco when I was there, and now back home it's only 48 degrees currently. Brrr.

[James Jones]

I'm surprised this trough hasn't brought Jim out of hiding. Seems like the kind of thing that would get him excited.

[MossMan]

I'm surprised this trough hasn't brought Jim out of hiding. Seems like the kind of thing that would get him excited.

He is saving up his posting energy for this coming winter. The winter that will bring snow to Covington, WA!

[Jesse]

Anomalous trough! Its a "supertrough".

That stat probably speaks more to how anomalously warm the rest of North America is right now.

[TT-SEA]

That stat probably speaks more to how anomalously warm the rest of North America is right now.

 

 

Maybe... but I think its also tied for the lowest reading ever for June here.    And would be well below normal even in January.    Impressive.  

[Phil]

Maybe... but I think its also tied for the lowest reading ever for June here. And would be well below normal even in January. Impressive.

Gotta love marine climates.

[Jesse]

Maybe... but I think its also tied for the lowest reading ever for June here. And would be well below normal even in January. Impressive.

This trough's upper air numbers would not be well below normal for January. Pretty normal if not even a bit above.

[Jesse]

Gotta love marine climates.

What he said is false.

[TT-SEA]

This trough's upper air numbers would not be well below normal for January. Pretty normal if not even a bit above.

 

Just going by what Cliff said this morning...  I have no idea if its accurate.   Looks like average temp at 500mb in January is around -24C and this morning it was -31C.

 

The temperatures over us are unusually cold and much more like the typical conditions of January.  I can prove this using the marvelous upper air climatology capability available from the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.   Here is the climatology of 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) temperatures at Quillayute on the Washington Coast.  Red shows daily record highs, blue indicates daily record lows and black is average.  The black dot show this morning's observation.

 

Today is a virtually tie for the record low for this date, or any date in June.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ANYTIME OF THE YEAR.

 

http://s31.postimg.org/a72rxg1ez/500hpoa.jpg

[Phil]

Through 204hrs, the 00z GFS seems to be handling the complicated breaker train much better.

[TT-SEA]

What he said is false.

 

 

Phil liked this comment.

 

But your comment is the false statement.   My statement appears to be true.  

 

The three of you have an incestuous post liking-fest amongst yourselves when any one in the group directs a negative comment at me.    Does not matter if its right or wrong.   

[TT-SEA]

Through 204hrs, the 00z GFS seems to be handling the complicated breaker train much better.

 

 

Much warmer here initially... then cooler later next week.

[Phil]

Phil liked this comment.

 

But your comment is the false statement. My statement appears to be true.

 

The three of you have an incestuous post liking-fest amongst yourselves when any one in the group directs a negative comment at me. Does not matter if its right or wrong.

What is the period of record and climatological baseline used? I figure I'll get contradictory results on ESRL/NOAA.

[TT-SEA]

What is the baseline on the aforementioned graph?

 

 

You are asking me???   

 

Ask Cliff Mass.   He is the professional.    

[Phil]

You are asking me???

 

Ask Cliff Mass. He is the professional.

He didn't provide that information in his article? That's kind of important.

[TT-SEA]

500mb temp from the 18Z GFS at the initial time was -29C.    

 

So I think the -31C this morning was probably accurate.  

 

And it appears that the average never gets below -25C at any time during the year.

[TT-SEA]

He didn't provide that information in his article? That's kind of important.

 

 

He said this... which I already showed above.    

 

I can prove this using the marvelous upper air climatology capability available from the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.

[Phil]

I like how the 00z GFS handles the retrogression of the initial anticyclone, actually makes sense this time.

[Phil]

Phil liked this comment.

 

But your comment is the false statement. My statement appears to be true.

 

The three of you have an incestuous post liking-fest amongst yourselves when any one in the group directs a negative comment at me. Does not matter if its right or wrong.

I just liked this comment. Happy now?

[TT-SEA]

I just liked this comment. Happy now?

 

 

Yes... but not because of that.  

[Jesse]

Yes... but not because of that.

There is more than one way of measuring the anomalous nature of a trough. You are only looking at 500mb temperatures. Looking at 500mb heights, 500-1000mb thicknesses, 850mb temperatures etc this was a near (or even slightly above) average airmass for January. Probably why he used the wording: "The temperatures over us are unusually cold and much more like the typical conditions of January." That is a far cry from "Well below normal even in January".

 

My last post on this, because this is a silly debate that could easily get drawn out way longer than it needs to be with some of the personalities on here.

[Phil]

Looks like the GFS also caved to the other modeling in regards to the forcing progression, now has IO/EHEM forcing dominating the integral. Again, finally seems to make sense, after floundering for days.

[TT-SEA]

There is more than one way of measuring the anomalous nature of a trough. You are only looking at 500mb temperatures. Looking at 500mb heights, 500mb thicknesses, 850mb temperatures etc this was a near (or even slightly above) average airmass for January. Probably why he used the wording: "The temperatures over us are unusually cold and much more like the typical conditions of January." That is a far cry from "Well below normal even in January".

 

My last post on this because this is a silly debate that could easily get drawn out way longer than it needs to be with some of the personalities on here.

 

 

We were talking about the post from Bainbridge about the 500mb temp being the coldest in North America.      You said its because North America is warm right now and I said maybe so but the sounding was below normal for January.

 

My statement was true.     And you were wrong to say its false.

[Phil]

Its a cold trough. And Cliff went out of his way to point out that the 500mb sounding was colder than the average in January. My statement was correct.

The sounding was only colder at the particular altitude in reference. The entirety of the sounding was obviously much warmer than the average sounding in January. Very straightforward if you ask me.

[Jesse]

The sounding was only colder at the particular altitude in reference. The entirety of the sounding was obviously much warmer than the average sounding in January. Very straightforward if you ask me.

Not if you are hell bent on spinning things a certain way.

[TT-SEA]

The sounding was only colder at the particular altitude in reference. The entirety of the sounding was obviously much warmer than the average sounding in January. Very straightforward if you ask me.

 

 

I have no idea about this.   Its not normally 60 degrees in January so that makes sense I guess.

 

I am not spinning anything here.   Good Lord.   

 

 

1) Bainbridge said it was the coldest 500mb sounding in North America.

 

2) I said anomalous trough.

 

3) Jesse said that stat was probably because North America is warm

 

4) I said maybe so... but that 500mb sounding is below normal for even January

 

5) Jesse said that is false.

 

 

 

#5 is the only incorrect statement.

 

I did not say anything about the rest of the column nor did I even think about it.  

[TT-SEA]

What is the normal 850mb temp over Seattle in January?

 

We were at 0C this morning.   And will be at 0C tomorrow morning as well.  

[Deweydog]

Not if you are hell bent on spinning things a certain way.

Between the three of you there's more spinning going on around here lately than at a 24 Hour Fitness.

[Jesse]

What is the normal 850mb temp over Seattle in January?

 

We were at 0C this morning. And will be at 0C tomorrow morning as well.

Something on the order of -3 or -4c I believe.

 

Perhaps you were correct about the 500mb temp (although strangely Bainbridge's initial post said it bottomed out a -22c at UIL this morning), but overall, this would not have been an anomalously cool trough for January.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like Victoria picked up some showers overnight, but it has been dry up this way. Shawnigan Lake is running close to 1/2" below the record driest AMJ on record. The record is 1.85" from 2015, with a close second going to 1935 with 1.84".

 

Being close to the mountains here, we will likely see some showers, possibly heavy, this afternoon.

 

There were some brief heavy showers here in the morning but the total only ended up around 3mm (~0.1 inches) and that was isolated to a small area. Since then the pattern has continued to frustrate with showers popping up north, south, east and west of Victoria all day yet not a drop of rain has fallen in Vic proper since the morning. Heavy showers have continued to approach from the SW all day only to disintegrate the instant before coming ashore. Once again it appears our best hope is for something in the night/morning; after a certain hour in the day it seems that numerous geographical features conspire against getting summer showers over this part of the peninsula in such a pattern.

 

It looks like parts of Shawinigan fared better today, there were definitely some decent showers up that way; though more focused on the east side of the hills.

[Jesse]

Between the three of you there's more spinning going on around here lately than at a 24 Hour Fitness.

I've barely even been on today. Most of the action has been between Tim, Phil and Flatiron. Like usual lately.

[TT-SEA]

Something on the order of -3 or -4c I believe.

 

Perhaps you were correct about the 500mb temp (although strangely Bainbridge's initial post said it bottomed out a -22c at UIL this morning), but overall, this would not have been an anomalously cool trough for January.

 

 

I saw that his post showed -22C.   Maybe he meant -32C because I know it was at least -31C.

 

And don't say "perhaps your were correct"... its not from me.   Its data from NOAA through Cliff Mass.    I was just making conversation based on what I read today.