June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[James Jones]

Will this irrefutable (I think) statement end this battle? Stay tuned...

Actually there are 52.14 weeks in a year, 52.29 on leap years. Ridiculous how Tim is trying to spin things.

[Phil]

There are 52 weeks in a year!

That's funny.

[TT-SEA]

Actually there are 52.14 weeks in a year, 52.29 on leap years. Ridiculous how Tim is trying to spin things.

 

 

I thought I could fool you with 52 weeks!  

[MossMan]

Very very wet all of a sudden up here. PSCZ firing up!

[TT-SEA]

Very very wet all of a sudden up here. PSCZ firing up!

 

 

Not really a PSCZ... more like the eastern side of a ULL in a humid air mass.

[James Jones]

 

I thought I could fool you with 52 weeks!  

We're too sharp here to fall for your shenanigans.

[TT-SEA]

We're too sharp here to fall for your shenanigans.

 

 

Indeed!  

[Phil]

We're too sharp here to fall for your shenanigans.

Truer words have never been spoken.

[TT-SEA]

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

It was in jest.

 

I am sure the same can be said for you as well.  

[TT-SEA]

60 at SEA with a dewpoint of 60 and raining.

 

Can't wait for the weekend.

 

78 with a dewpoint of 48 and sunshine is much nicer in my opinion.  

[Jesse]

Getting some fairly heavy rain in Vancouver at the moment.

[ShawniganLake]

60 at SEA with a dewpoint of 60 and raining.

 

Can't wait for the weekend.

 

78 with a dewpoint of 48 and sunshine is much nicer in my opinion.

Mostly sunny and 70 here now. Dew point is 48. Nice day for working outside.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny and 70 here now. Dew point is 48. Nice day for working outside.

Torrential rain here. And out here we are stuck in the gunk all day tomorrow and into Saturday morning.

[Phil]

It was in jest.

 

I am sure the same can be said for you as well.

I'm aware of that. Actually makes it even funnier.

[Phil]

Both the GEFS and EPS are trending towards a reduction in intraseasonal forcing in favor of a stagnant Niña forcing as we head towards mid-July. Subsidence strengthening over the Pacific, divergence locking in over the IO/MT. I personally expect to see the modeling trend towards a much deeper -PNA/-AAM type circulation for mid-July as we progress through the next week.

[bainbridgekid]

60 at SEA with a dewpoint of 60 and raining.

 

Can't wait for the weekend.

 

78 with a dewpoint of 48 and sunshine is much nicer in my opinion.  

Me too.

 

Definitely looking forward to getting out on the water next week before I head to Europe for a month. Weather looks perfect for it.

[TT-SEA]

Me too.

 

Definitely looking forward to getting out on the water next week before I head to Europe for a month. Weather looks perfect for it.

 

 

Did you get a boat?

 

Today is the 29th day with measureable rain here since May 14th.     That is 29 out of 41 days... coming off a winter when there was rain on 90% of the days which is way above normal.    Sure will be sad to start our endless 8 weeks of basically dry weather.   62 days of "pleasant hell".    Definitely do not want any seasonal variety to our weather!   

 

Not meaning to complain... just responding to a complaint earlier today.  

[bainbridgekid]

Did you get a boat?

 

Today is the 29th day with measureable rain here since May 14th.     That is 29 out of 41 days... coming off a winter when there was rain on 90% of the days which is way above normal.    Sure will be sad to start our endless 8 weeks of basically dry weather.   62 days of "pleasant hell".    Definitely do not want any seasonal variety to our weather!   

 

Not meaning to complain... just responding to a complaint earlier today.  

No, but I have friends who do. All the fun without any of the work!

 

I also bought a couple intertubes off Amazon. Went floating on the Snoqualmie River in Fall City on Tuesday have been out on Lake Washington a couple times already. Really relaxing way to spend an afternoon with a couple beers.

[TT-SEA]

The ensemble mean is above average starting Saturday through the end of the run... and dry.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

Did you get a boat?

 

Today is the 29th day with measureable rain here since May 14th. That is 29 out of 41 days... coming off a winter when there was rain on 90% of the days which is way above normal. Sure will be sad to start our endless 8 weeks of basically dry weather. 62 days of "pleasant hell". Definitely do not want any seasonal variety to our weather!

 

Not meaning to complain... just responding to a complaint earlier today.

That was a joke.

 

Relax Tim. This post reads like you're hyperventilating.

[TT-SEA]

No, but I have friends who do. All the fun without any of the work!

 

I also bought a couple intertubes off Amazon. Went floating on the Snoqualmie River in Fall City on Tuesday have been out on Lake Washington a couple times already. Really relaxing way to spend an afternoon with a couple beers.

 

 

Its really awesome.   We were just saying that we need to buy some tubes and float down the Snoqualmie River.   

 

Lake Washington is insane with yachts and expensive boats.   Really creates some waves on the lake on a nice day but also fun to see.    We like to pull up at Carillon Point in Kirkland... they have valets to tie you up.    Get some drinks and appetizers at the Beach Cafe and watch all the activity. 

 

Lake Sammamish is usually warmer and less crazy... but there are no restaurants or other areas to dock.  That is where we usually go though since its so close.  Sometimes we tie up at the beach on the north side of the lake in Redmond.   

 

Having a good friend with a boat is really the way to go!   

[TT-SEA]

That was a joke.

 

Relax Tim. This post reads like you're hyperventilating.

 

 

Passive aggressive!    My post is a joke... other than the rain stats.   Those are real.  

[Jesse]

Its really awesome. We were just saying that we need to buy some tubes and float down the Snoqualmie River.

 

Lake Washington is insane with yachts and expensive boats. Really creates some waves on the lake on a nice day but also fun to see. We like to pull up at Carillon Point in Kirkland... they have valets to tie you up. Get some drinks and appetizers at the Beach Cafe and watch all the activity.

 

Lake Sammamish is usually warmer and less crazy... but there are no restaurants or other areas to dock. That is where we usually go though since its so close. Sometimes we tie up at the beach on the north side of the lake in Redmond.

 

Having a good friend with a boat is really the way to go!

Have you ever tried Whitewater rafting? We went Saturday and it was awesome. Probably one of my favorite water activities.

[TT-SEA]

Have you ever tried Whitewater rafting? We went Saturday and it was awesome. Probably one of my favorite water activities.

 

We did it in California a couple times... but that is not very relaxing!   My boys want to try it.  

[Jesse]

Passive aggressive! My post is a joke... other than the rain stats. Those are real.

Do you know what passive aggressive means? Your initial post was textbook, mocking something I said without even directly addressing me.

 

My response was direct. Agressive perhaps, but not passive aggressive like yours.

[TT-SEA]

Do you know what passive aggressive means? Your initial post was textbook, mocking something I said without even directly addressing me.

 

My response was direct. Agressive perhaps, but not passive aggressive like yours.

 

 

Passive aggressive is trying to get a rise out of people and then saying it was just a joke.   

 

I am just playing the game.   

[Jesse]

Passive aggressive is trying to get a rise out of people and then saying it was just a joke.

 

I am just playing the game.

Ok.

[TT-SEA]

Ok.

 

 

That is true of course.   

[bainbridgekid]

Its really awesome.   We were just saying that we need to buy some tubes and float down the Snoqualmie River.   

 

Lake Washington is insane with yachts and expensive boats.   Really creates some waves on the lake on a nice day but also fun to see.    We like to pull up at Carillon Point in Kirkland... they have valets to tie you up.    Get some drinks and appetizers at the Beach Cafe and watch all the activity. 

 

Lake Sammamish is usually warmer and less crazy... but there are no restaurants or other areas to dock.  That is where we usually go though since its so close.  Sometimes we tie up at the beach on the north side of the lake in Redmond.   

 

Having a good friend with a boat is really the way to go!   

I bought the Intex River Run tubes for $17 each and they seem really good. The Snoqualmie is still quite cold, but it would be nice on a warmer day than when we went.

 

Haven't been further South on Lake Washington, but Log Boom Park is about 10 minutes from my apartment and it's pretty calm because it's at the very North tip and fairly shallow.

 

Super close to the Kenmore Air Harbor too, so it's fun to watch the planes take off.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

I bought the Intex River Run tubes for $17 each and they seem really good. The Snoqualmie is still quite cold, but it would be nice on a warmer day than when we went.

 

Haven't been further South on Lake Washington, but Log Boom Park is about 10 minutes from my apartment and it's pretty calm because it's at the very North tip and fairly shallow.

 

Super close to the Kenmore Air Harbor too, so it's fun to watch the planes take off.

 

 

We need to try launching on the north side of the lake.   We always launch from Mercer Island and are in the middle of the craziness immediately.   

[Tyler Mode]

I just looked and today is the wettest day of the YEAR at my station at 0.95", beating out 0.76" on January 19th and 28th. I'd love it if it stayed as the wettest day!

[MossMan]

The ensemble mean is above average starting Saturday through the end of the run... and dry.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

I very much like the looks of that! Let's get summer rolling again!

[Jesse]

Ensembles continuing to trend cooler in the mid-long range.

 

[TT-SEA]

Ensembles continuing to trend cooler in the mid-long range.

 

image.png

 

 

Definitely.

 

The 00Z GFS even has a solid trough around day 10.  Right around that 'early July' timeframe.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[Tyler Mode]

Today's 0.95" is more rain than I received all of last June.  It's also a monthly daily record for me.  Sitting at 2.55" now for the month.

[BLI snowman]

Today's 0.95" is more rain than I received all of last June.  It's also a monthly daily record for me.  Sitting at 2.55" now for the month.

 

Those showers early this evening were ridiculously intense.

 

The Mt. Vista station recorded an inch of rain in a 40 minute period from 4:10 to 4:50

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWAVANCO175#history/tdata/s20160623/e20160623/mdaily

[Tyler Mode]

Similar here...0.41" in 30 minutes. The graph doesn't actually catch the 3.67" rate @ 4:32 PM. 

Those showers early this evening were ridiculously intense.

 

The Mt. Vista station recorded an inch of rain in a 40 minute period from 4:10 to 4:50

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWAVANCO175#history/tdata/s20160623/e20160623/mdaily

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a decent band of rain is forming in the central sound. I assume it will be energizing and heading straight for Tim's house.

[Jesse]

Those showers early this evening were ridiculously intense.

 

The Mt. Vista station recorded an inch of rain in a 40 minute period from 4:10 to 4:50

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWAVANCO175#history/tdata/s20160623/e20160623/mdaily

Yes they were. I don't have any official data, but where I was in Central Vancouver between about 3-5pm there was a nearly unbroken stretch of heavy to very heavy rain.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a decent band of rain is forming in the central sound. I assume it will be energizing and heading straight for Tim's house.

 

 

Correct - .55 on the day so far after .75 yesterday.   

 

Looks like SEA is at .50 so far today.