July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I completely disagree with this, but considering I've been pissed and miserable all day (broken AC with 80 degree dewpoints) I will digress for the time being.

I know a good HVAC guy.

[Jesse]

I completely disagree with this, but considering I've been pissed and miserable all day (broken AC with 80 degree dewpoints) I will digress for the time being.

 

You don't even know humidity! DPs have been the the oppressive low-mid 50s here all day.

[Jesse]

18z op looks pretty warm next week compared to the ensembles. Probably a good bet to go with the Euro at this stage.

[Phil]

You don't even know humidity! DPs have been the the oppressive low-mid 50s here all day.

D**n son, better drink those fluids. Avoid direct sunlight if possible.

[Phil]

Tomorrow looks pretty warmish around Seattle as I mentioned earlier. Should be 75 for a high after a warm night.

 

.Friday and Sunday look to be above normal..

Neither Friday or Sunday will be above normal. SEA will probably be running around -3.5 or so by 7/15, give or take a degree.

Both SEA & PDX came in with a zero departure today. No mid-70s today @ SEA, either.

 

Again, the GFS WRF tends to run a few degrees too warm at the surface, and MOS always skews towards climo.

[TT-SEA]

Both SEA & PDX came in with a zero departure today. No mid-70s today @ SEA, either.

Again, the GFS WRF tends to run a few degrees too warm at the surface, and MOS always skews towards climo.

Yeah... I said normal was a possibility.

 

Certainly not much colder than normal as was implied. The next few days look about the same.

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah... I said normal was a possibility.

 

Certainly not much colder than normal as was implied. The next few days look about the same.

Honestly, you were very emphatic that it would be warmer than it ended up being today, a small comment about the possibility of normal won't get you off the hook.

 

Being wrong sometimes is ok, admitting it is even better!!

[Jesse]

Honestly, you were very emphatic that it would be warmer than it ended up being today, a small comment about the possibility of normal won't get you off the hook.

 

Being wrong sometimes is ok, admitting it is even better!!

Tomorrow through Monday easily look cooler than today as well.

[TT-SEA]

Honestly, you were very emphatic that it would be warmer than it ended up being today, a small comment about the possibility of normal won't get you off the hook.

Being wrong sometimes is ok, admitting it is even better!!

OK... it was normal.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like a decent band of precip making its way onshore now. We may yet get some heavier rain this evening. Perhaps the heaviest in months for parts of the south island depending on how things line up. The atmosphere seems pretty saturated at the moment.

[Deweydog]

Tomorrow looks to be normally cool.

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow looks to be normally cool.

Definitely colder departures farther south.

[Phil]

Definitely colder departures farther south.

Wild guess, SEA -1, OLM -2, EUG -3, PDX -3.

 

You?

[Phil]

PDO/EPAC dropping like a rock. Imagine what another two weeks of this pattern will do to SSTs.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Jesse]

Some moderate to heavy rain about to hit the Portland metro.

[FroYoBro]

Getting some real rain right now. REAL.

[stuffradio]

It's raining lightly here again. It was a beautiful afternoon after the rains this morning and overnight. I got .28" of rain today. I have 1.3 something inches of rain this month so far.

[Phil]

Y'all might get an influx of tourists next weekend if the 00z GEFS is correct. Everyone torching into oblivion except you guys.

 

Remember, this is a day 10 ensemble mean. These are 2m temperatures:

 

[stuffradio]

I had a crazy thunderstorm this morning at 1-2am. At one point, within 2 minutes I had about 12 flashes. I had over 24 lightning flashes/strikes and lots of thunder this morning.

[MossMan]

Y'all might get an influx of tourists next weekend if the 00z GEFS is correct. Everyone torching into oblivion except you guys.

 

Remember, this is a day 10 ensemble mean. These are 2m temperatures:

 

image.png

That image looks like some guy breathing fire in the northwestern part of Canada and is punching the northwest right in the throat...or he is just giving us the middle finger, can't tell.

[Jesse]

Ensembles continue to be a lot weaker than the op with any ridging next week. The ensembles look a bit more like the Euro, fwiw.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I could have a 60 degree high tomorrow. Definitely a hint of 1983 coming around. It is pretty difficult to have highs that cool in July in Klamath Falls. And possible cold-core convection tomorrow too?

 

The coolest July days I've had since moving here were 69 degrees on both 07/18/2011 and 07/19/2011. The last 4 July's have passed with no days below 70 degrees. There was a 65 degree day on 07/02/2010, followed by multiple July's without 60's. The last July days below 65 were on 07/03/2000 (64) and 07/05/2000 (57!) (with a t'storm, probably cold core).

Days 60 or below look to be very rare occurrences. 

[stuffradio]

So far I've received .60 inches of rain since midnight. I know others have received closer to if not surpassing 1" since midnight in surrounding cities.

 

So far this July I've received 2 inches of rain. 3.2 inches is average for me for July.

[Abbotsford_wx]

So far I've received .60 inches of rain since midnight. I know others have received closer to if not surpassing 1" since midnight in surrounding cities.

 

So far this July I've received 2 inches of rain. 3.2 inches is average for me for July.

 

I had .75" in a half an hour and probably over 100 lightning strikes.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So far I've received .60 inches of rain since midnight. I know others have received closer to if not surpassing 1" since midnight in surrounding cities.

 

So far this July I've received 2 inches of rain. 3.2 inches is average for me for July.

 

I only measured about 0.4" of rain here last night and many surrounding areas received less, but the prolonged high humidity and lack of wind have helped more of the moisture seep into the ground and things are looking a little less parched today. If only we could tap into some of the stuff spinning offshore right now, a few heavy showers would make a big difference.

[Timmy Supercell]

I had .75" in a half an hour and probably over 100 lightning strikes.

 

So now BC is outclassing us in thunderstorm season. Nice

 

Now nothing is happening in areas prone to storms in July/August.... Like me. lol

[Phil]

So now BC is outclassing us in thunderstorm season. Nice

 

Now nothing is happening in areas prone to storms in July/August.... Like me. lol

Move to Moore, Oklahoma. You'll have your F5 in no time!

[Phil]

We currently have most anomalous -IOD cell since at least 1996. Systematic circulation looking a lot more like something out of the 1980s or early/mid 1990s right now, only solar/HC state is nothing like those years.

[luminen]

I had a crazy thunderstorm this morning at 1-2am. At one point, within 2 minutes I had about 12 flashes. I had over 24 lightning flashes/strikes and lots of thunder this morning.

 

I was awake as well during that time. The rain was absolutely torrential and some of the heaviest I've ever seen, so I didn't really hear any thunder if there was any because the rain was so loud.

 

Then around mid morning hours (9am) it was raining moderately but no where near as heavy as earlier. It turned out to be a really nice day today.

[snow_wizard]

We currently have most anomalous -IOD cell since at least 1996. Systematic circulation looking a lot more like something out of the 1980s or early/mid 1990s right now, only solar/HC state is nothing like those years.

 

It really looks as if we are undergoing a major regime shift.  That can only be good news for the NW.

[snow_wizard]

Does anyone have a good link for lightning strikes?  The one I have hasn't updated since June 26 for some reason.

[Phil]

It really looks as if we are undergoing a major regime shift. That can only be good news for the NW.

Yeah, major shift in global circulation ongoing, aside from what'd be considered typical of ENSO/AAM. Last time we observed something this significant was back in 1998, though this one is displaying opposite tendencies vs those of 1998.

[Phil]

00z GFS just caved to the ECMWF for late next week. Now has that ULL moving into the PNW while the ridge retrogrades underneath.

[Phil]

Holy death ridge on the 00z GFS. Good chance it's a product of erroneous feedback with the WAFs from the EPAC TCs, but still scary looking.

 

You guys should escape either way, however.

[snow_wizard]

Holy death ridge on the 00z GFS. Good chance it's a product of erroneous feedback with the WAFs from the EPAC TCs, but still scary looking.

 

You guys should escape either way, however.

 

Holy crap!  6000 heights shown over the Midwest before day 10.  That could be a deadly heatwave for them if it verifies.  Meanwhile the NW continues mostly troughy.  It's very noteworthy the Four Corners high which has been a mainstay during summer this century is a no show thus far.  If the amplification continues over the GOA and Aleutians this fall and winter the NW could be in for some real fun.  I had a feeling the backlash would be dramatic when the Nino collapsed, but this is crazy!

[Phil]

Holy crap! 6000 heights shown over the Midwest before day 10. That could be a deadly heatwave for them if it verifies. Meanwhile the NW continues mostly troughy. It's very noteworthy the Four Corners high which has been a mainstay during summer this century is a no show thus far. If the amplification continues over the GOA and Aleutians this fall and winter the NW could be in for some real fun. I had a feeling the backlash would be dramatic when the Nino collapsed, but this is crazy!

I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also.

 

The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also.

 

The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it.

 

I clearly remember you said the Eastern half of the nation would fry this summer and the NW would be cool.  You deserve credit.

[stuffradio]

The NCEP GFS 850 anomaly is below normal for much of the PNW for most of the next 10 days still. SW BC and NW WA has -7F 850 T anomalies at times, parts of SE OR has around -10 to -12F anomalies at times. I wonder what July will finish off at.

[Phil]

I clearly remember you said the Eastern half of the nation would fry this summer and the NW would be cool. You deserve credit.

Thanks. It's not over yet, but the progression going forward looks straight up classic to me. The hot summer idea (nationally) is panning out well, though, given the country just had its hottest June on record. Probably a good chance at the hottest JJA on record, also.

[snow_wizard]

The NCEP GFS 850 anomaly is below normal for much of the PNW for most of the next 10 days still. SW BC and NW WA has -7F 850 T anomalies at times, parts of SE OR has around -10 to -12F anomalies at times. I wonder what July will finish off at.

 

We should see much larger minus anoms at the surface as normals rise and observed temps drop a bit more.  I'm guessing the min temps will really take a step down in the coming days as the pattern remains troughy, but turns drier.