Geos Posted August 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold. Hopefully with the la Niña the snow level will come down to the lowlands more often.I know the last two winters have been fairly blah. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Time for the meds? No... that is just the way it is here. Should we pretend that is not true? Hawaii, Palm Springs, and Florida to break it up this winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Hopefully with the la Niña the snow level will come down to the lowlands more often.I know the last two winters have been fairly blah. Even Nina winters... its mostly blah and the above forecast applies. Very easy usually. When something good happens it will be awesome though.... and not last very long. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold.Pretty much! My favorite non snowy or windstorm days are days were we are in pre frontal warm sector southerly flow where it's partly cloudy, breezy to windy and warm. Or if we have a very sharp cold front move through. Drizzle and 47 degrees day after day is just awful. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Time for the meds?Amazing what a few troughy runs will do. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Amazing what a few troughy runs will do. What is amazing? Phil brought up the winter forecast. I said its easy. It has nothing to do with a ULL over the weekend when we are not even here and instead sweating it out in Minnesota for 2 weeks. Nice stretch there just to be a d*ck. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Pretty much! My favorite non snowy or windstorm days are days were we are in pre frontal warm sector southerly flow where it's partly cloudy, breezy to windy and warm. Or if we have a very sharp cold front move through. Drizzle and 47 degrees day after day is just awful.Warm, wet southerly flow is easily some of our gloomiest winter weather. Cold sunshine/inversions beats that IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 No... that is just the way it is here. Should we pretend that is not true? Then why bother talking about the winter weather at all? Why discuss possible analogs, as you've done many times? Why stay up for model runs? 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Good downpour here right now... I can see the plants perking up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Why ask why? Try Bud Dry. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Then why bother talking about the winter weather at all? Why discuss possible analogs, as you've done many times? Why stay up for model runs?He's trolling, knowing a certain few here will react accordingly. He was discussing winter analogs/patterns as recently as a few weeks ago. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 He's trolling, knowing a certain few here will react accordingly (particularly Jim).Not at all. Lately Jim has been the one complaining about our winter gloom way more than me. And last winter was gloomy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Not at all. Lately Jim has been the one complaining about our winter gloom way more than me. And last winter was gloomy.By "Winter forecast", we're referring to a scientifically-based prediction of pattern tendencies, and corresponding anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and snowfall relative to normal and/or recent years. Whether or not your winter is "gloomy" is irrelevant to the purpose and structure of a seasonally-scaled winter forecast. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 By "Winter forecast", we're referring to a scientifically-based prediction of pattern tendencies, and corresponding anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and snowfall relative to normal and/or recent years. Whether or not your winter is "gloomy" is irrelevant to the purpose and structure of a seasonally-scaled winter forecast. No kidding. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Fun day... sun and downpours. While taking this picture there was a loud rumble of thunder... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Looks like the Seattle area might get missed....focus is shifting south. Lots of thunder right now from the cell passing to my south. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Then why bother talking about the winter weather at all? Why discuss possible analogs, as you've done many times? Why stay up for model runs? Because I am addicted to this stuff... and finding chances for snow and cold to break up the normal winter weather. Still the overall forecast is pretty easy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Looks like we got about .35 in 20 minutes with that last cell. It was dumping rain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Looks like we got about .35 in 20 minutes with that last cell. It was dumping rain.I got about 20 minutes of drizzle! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Sunny in Seattle now... But that pile of clouds to the east is over my area... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 .52 on the day here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 71 at SEA today with .11 in the rain gauge. Looks like a -3 day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 71 at SEA today with .11 in the rain gauge. Looks like a -3 day.Only 64 here at my house...with just a trace of rain today. Let the warmup begin!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 71 at SEA today with .11 in the rain gauge. Looks like a -3 day. Any type of clearing this evening, and midnight lows could be an issue again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Any type of clearing this evening, and midnight lows could be an issue again. Issue? Well... better stay up until 1 a.m. to make sure! Does not look like there will be much clearing anyways... and the dewpoint is still 56. We might be safe! Maybe. Possibly. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Issue? Well... better stay up until 1 a.m. to make sure! Does not look like there will be much clearing anyways... and the dewpoint is still 56. We might be safe! Maybe. Possibly.Exactly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 This weather is really causing some serious fire issues over in Eastern Wa, especially the Moses Lake area where several homes have burned this afternoon. Extreme fire behavior due to low humidity and high winds...we need to get back to a stable air mass. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Only 64 here at my house...with just a trace of rain today. Let the warmup begin!! Haven't you had enough warmth the past couple of years? Sheesh. You probably would have lost your mind in 1955. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 One very noteworthy temp on the 6pm observations is the crazy 62 degree reading in Ellensburg with clear skies. That is REALLY impressive. Certainly another case of the Puget Sound area underperforming on negative anoms, but at least the month is running below normal. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 0.11" here only. Got caught in a downpour on the north end of Issaquah earlier today with a couple low rumbles of thunder. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Haven't you had enough warmth the past couple of years? Sheesh. You probably would have lost your mind in 1955. Jim... 64 in early August is not summer weather. Its a very fair complaint. No need to mock him. So according to you... we should never wish for warm weather in the short window of the year we have for actual warm weather here? As you say... sheesh. Who cares what he would have thought of 1955? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Even Nina winters... its mostly blah and the above forecast applies. Very easy usually. When something good happens it will be awesome though.... and not last very long. I've read your snow posts in the winter, it seems like you do fairly well with winter weather usually. Any idea what your average snowfall is? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 I've read your snow posts in the winter, it seems like you do fairly well with winter weather usually. Any idea what your average snowfall is? Probably around 60 inches... but varies wildly and the average has been inflated by some extreme years. We went 3 winters with very little snow and no snow on the ground for 95% of the winter... then last winter we had 30 inches (from mid December to early January) which became hard as concrete and lasted for almost a month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 This was our yard at the peak of the snow depth last winter... the morning of January 4th. This was 4 days later. What was left here actually stayed for another couple weeks. In the backyard it was probably 8 inches deep and impossible to break through. Like a block of ice. January 9th... the daffodils poking up with snow still on the ground. Quite the turnaround from 5 days earlier. Areas in the sun had green grass and areas in the shade were totally in winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Jim... 64 in early August is not summer weather. Its a very fair complaint. No need to mock him. So according to you... we should never wish for warm weather in the short window of the year we have for actual warm weather here? As you say... sheesh. Who cares what he would have thought of 1955?Mossman has become our resident cheerleader of warmth. He drank the warm-aid awhile back and was turned to the dark side. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Mossman has become our resident cheerleader of warmth. He drank the warm-aid awhile back and was turned to the dark side. Well put. I enjoy cool / cold anomalies any time of year. Cool weather during the warm parts of the year is typical for our cold phases. Cold phases = cold winters. At any rate the next period of trouging / below normal 850s looks to last 5 days or so. Not a lot for warm weather fans to cheer about right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Well put. I enjoy cool / cold anomalies any time of year. Cool weather during the warm parts of the year is typical for our cold phases. Cold phases = cold winters. At any rate the next period of trouging / below normal 850s looks to last 5 days or so. Not a lot for warm weather fans to cheer about right now. That was sarcasm by Jared. Many people like warm weather in the summer and don't care about anomalies. Summer is short... the rest of the year is not warm regardless of anomalies. Variety is nice. We have 3 months to enjoy the true warm variety. Don't be picking on Randy! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Another downpour... up to .75 on the day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Hard to know what I would do if I was granted one weather-related wish. Would I wish for the ability to control the weather or control the way people feel about the weather. Tough call. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 I have visions of Jim scolding the throngs of people in the park or at the beach on a warm summer day. Or standing in an empty park or beach on a crappy summer day beaming with pride. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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