August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Nice catch 22 buddy. Accuse me of being worked up for no reason, then when I defend myself, go "see??".

 

I've been just fine. This is the second time in the last 24 hours you have implied that I'm either worked up or unrealistic, without any provoking. Cut it out already.

 

You called me an "a**".

 

If you don't like me interpreting you as "worked up", perhaps you could interpret what I say a little more kindly. I've been here forever. You should know by now I'm not actually an a**. Again, if you want to interpret what I say WAY more seriously than I intend it, that's on you. Don't make a big deal out of little stuff.

[Jesse]

You called me an "a**".

 

If you don't like me interpreting you as "worked up", perhaps you could interpret what I say a little more kindly. I've been here forever. You should know by now I'm not actually an a**. Again, if you want to interpret what I say WAY more seriously than I intend it, that's on you. Don't make a big deal out of little stuff.

You're being an a** again.

[Front Ranger]

You're being an a** again.

 

No matter what I say right now, you're going to interpret it that way. Catch 22!

[Front Ranger]

I've made maybe a post or two about if. You've probably posted about it 2-3 times more. Are you worked up about it??

 

I went slightly above normal for August in the forecast contest, fwiw.

 

Anyway, Jim is the one who was having issues with cursing or climate last night. Don't lump me in there. Not fair.

 

Like I said, he obviously expresses himself in a more extreme manner. I'm sorry if mentioning you with him felt unfair. The point was, there's a reason it bothers you both - and others, I'm sure.

 

Now, please stop taking what I say so personal and goddam serious! 

[Jesse]

No matter what I say right now, you're going to interpret it that way. Catch 22!

Ok.

 

Maybe I will start implying negative things about you in conversations you aren't even a part of, and I'll see how you take it.

 

Again, just cut it out. No need to overcomplicate things. It's a very simple request.

[Front Ranger]

Aw. I hope you're not serious. I'm not. You might feel like I'm goading you, but that's really not my intent. Look at my posts. I don't go after one person. I'm not here to beat anyone up.

 

Sometimes I make light of absurdity. This forum has it in spades. You, me, Tim, Phil, Dewey, everyone. 

 

Anomalies, obsessions, preferences, model riding - it's all fair game.

 

 

Ok.

 

Maybe I will start implying negative things about you in conversations you aren't even a part of, and I'll see how you take it.

 

Again, just cut it out. No need to overcomplicate things. It's a very simple request.

 

See above. Nothing new to say here.

[Jesse]

See above. Nothing new to say here.

Simple request. Cut it out.

 

You are correct, there is nothing more to say.

[Deweydog]

Come on, fellas. The PDO is down, the first ten days of the month were rock-hard nipple cold and two months from now Friday's breezes would be quite chilly.

 

All is right with the world!

[Front Ranger]

Simple request. Cut it out.

 

You are correct, there is nothing more to say.

 

So, you could keep telling me to "cut it out" all night, and I could keep telling you to "stop taking everything so personal/serious". I feel that would really get us somewhere, maybe even earn us our own thread!

 

We've both made our point. I'm me, not going to change for you. You're you, and I won't expect you to change for me. Thank god we're not in a relationship.

[TT-SEA]

SEA made a nice recovery today... from fog and 59 at 11 a.m. to 81 and sunny at 4 p.m.

[GobBluth]

back to talking about weather...

what's the consensus on the forecasts for this weekend? the 850s peak just as winds are the strongest, so perhaps a cap on temps on Saturday?

[TT-SEA]

back to talking about weather...

what's the consensus on the forecasts for this weekend? the 850s peak just as winds are the strongest, so perhaps a cap on temps on Saturday?

 

Looks like high fire danger for everyone regardless.   

[Deweydog]

back to talking about weather...

what's the consensus on the forecasts for this weekend? the 850s peak just as winds are the strongest, so perhaps a cap on temps on Saturday?

 

Hot.  

[Timmy Supercell]

This climate can go f**k itself up, down, and sideways.

 

Lots of colorful posts flying around lately...

 

Is it just me or is it pretty hot at the Weather Forums?

[Jesse]

Hot.

How is the 18z handling the cool down early next week?

 

Been away from my computer most the day.

[TT-SEA]

Fairly weak cool down on the 18Z GFS:

 

Sunday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_126_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Monday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_150_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

Tuesday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_174_500_vort_ht.gif

[Jesse]

EUG just hit 90 at 4 p.m., so that streak continues at 6 now.

Should be the fourth consecutive summer they've courted that record.

[Deweydog]

How is the 18z handling the cool down early next week?

 

Been away from my computer most the day.

Pretty gradual. Pattern looks pretty rudderless in the long range so I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

[Deweydog]

Should be the fourth consecutive summer they've courted that record.

Just to clarify, their 90 thus far is only on the goofball readings. Their last official temp was 88.

[Jesse]

Pretty gradual. Pattern looks pretty rudderless in the long range so I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

Thanks.

[Abbotsford_wx]

SEA made a nice recovery today... from fog and 59 at 11 a.m. to 81 and sunny at 4 p.m.

 

Yeah, same up here. We would normally stay below 80 on a day with any marine cloud intrusion, but we hit 82 today.

[Deweydog]

Fourth consecutive day of cooling at PDX. A descent into marine inversion hell.

[James Jones]

EUG reached 90, and tomorrow looks about the same. If they hit it, they've pretty much wrapped up 11 in a row. Could be even more depending on the timing and strength of the cooldown.

[snow_wizard]

 

This is probably wrong and the exact opposite will happen. 

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice "Updated NMME: The NCAR CCSM4 is the only model that is predicting a cold 2016-2017 Winter Season for NA. Odds?"

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/765576656257945600

 

 

Pretty much a train wreck for the entire country.  If the GFDL is right the global warming freaks will go nuts.

[snow_wizard]

I was just looking at the forecast for parts of Montana late this week and the contrast between here and there is pretty interesting.

 

Bozeman is forecast to be 63/41 Friday while it is possibly pushing 100 here. Definitely a fallish setup with a cool, dry airmass spilling down the northern Rockies and triggering hot offshore flow for us.

 

We should have much lower dps with the next round of heat.  Certainly more of a late season affair.

[snow_wizard]

"Close to perfection" is your opinion, why make it sound like it's a fact instead? I personally have not been a fan of the hot temps this summer and would have much more enjoyed cooler weather

 

The thing that really pisses me off is the observed temps should have been lower much of the summer.  I'm fine with what the summer featured for 500mb anomalies, but the relative warmth at the surface has been frustrating.  Now of course we are entering a true warm regime and will likely over achieve all the way.

[snow_wizard]

Right now we are just dealing with a wavy jet stream pattern. The fact this is occurring this early is a good sign. Right now we are seeing west coast ridging because we are still in summer and storms aren't strong enough to break through yet. This is just climatology here in the PNW. This is evident with the models trying to get a trough in here to break up the ridge but it keeps coming back. I think the ridging will finally go away sometime in mid September. I'm confident that the anomalous GOA ridge will be there for us this Winter.

 

Mid August to mid September can certainly be a time of endless ridges.  Usually the crash is pretty hard with the ones that last a long time.  For once I would like to see a sunny and cool pattern this time of year.  It can happen, but not recently.

[snow_wizard]

August is on pace to be near neutral. 31 month +PDO streak may finally come to an end soon.

 

We'll see.  I think the upcoming pattern will raise the PDO.  The surface pressure anoms over the NE Pacific will be more like last year again.

[Jesse]

We'll see. I think the upcoming pattern will raise the PDO. The surface pressure anoms over the NE Pacific will be more like last year again.

The last week of August through September wasn't especially warm last year.

[Timmy Supercell]

The last week of August through September wasn't especially warm last year.

 

Anyone remember end of August 2008? That was CHILLY and we had cold core t'storms with funnels. Don't even think 08/31 hit 60...

 

That whole summer was pretty warm so anything can go this point forward.

[Deweydog]

The last week of August through September wasn't especially warm last year.

We're due!!!

[Jesse]

We're due!!!

I literally envisioned this response from you as I posted that.

[snow_wizard]

The last week of August through September wasn't especially warm last year.

 

I'm just saying the general pattern over the NE Pacific favored positive PDO creation last year.

[Geos]

83°/55° for today. Marine layer coming back tonight?

[Deweydog]

I literally envisioned this response from you as I posted that.

You could envision it because we were due!!!

 

It works EVERY time!!!

[ShawniganLake]

83°/55° for today. Marine layer coming back tonight?

Very similar 83/54 here today. Actually 1 degree warmer than yesterday on both the high and low.

[TT-SEA]

Very similar 83/54 here today. Actually 1 degree warmer than yesterday on both the high and low.

 

Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 50s and sunny in August... what a complete nightmare.

 

This climate is a joke... it can go f*ck itself up one side and down the other!  

[Timmy Supercell]

Another busted thunderstorm forecast. Also, what happened to nocturnal convection? Seemingly so difficult nowadays to get anything going. I wish this was April/May all over again.

[snow_wizard]

Another busted thunderstorm forecast. Also, what happened to nocturnal convection? Seemingly so difficult nowadays to get anything going. I wish this was April/May all over again.

 

No way.  That would mean we would have to wait many months for winter or any chance of cold weather.

[Timmy Supercell]

No way.  That would mean we would have to wait many months for winter or any chance of cold weather.

 

Those many months are many more chances I get to dust off my cameras and get some storms