August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Momentary payback, since the late 1943-45 period was also a total torch here.

 

True...I was thinking more 1946 - 1957.

[snow_wizard]

Didn't it take some time still following 1942 for the winters to get much momentum going.  That 43-46 stretch looked pretty lame. 

 

1942-43 was a good one.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has some crazy amplification and deep troughing in the NW.  Very different look than any recent year.

[ShawniganLake]

1942-43 was a good one.

Very Solid January.

[ShawniganLake]

Might even see some rain as we head into September.

 

Just 0.07" here in the last 5 weeks.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Geos]

Had a colorful sunset tonight. Perfect day in my book. High of 78

 

[Phil]

Has anyone else noticed the recent warm summers in the PNW have coincided with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity? Seems to be a theme, as 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2015 were all quiet seasons in the Atlantic, and (so far) 2016 has been relatively quiet as well, while 2010, 2011, and 2012 were more active seasons relative to average.

[Deweydog]

I like extremes of all varieties...

 

Diversity!

[TT-SEA]

Upcoming weekend has definitely trended drier and warmer over the last 3 days.    Looks about perfect now.

[TT-SEA]

Going to be a stellar day!   It is an absolutely gorgeous morning.

 

A cooler and more troughy period next week is almost inevitable looking back at years when so much of August is warm and sunny.     

 

What happens after the troughy period next week will be interesting... could definitely rebound to warm and sunny for a good part of September.  

[TT-SEA]

The fire in the Olympic Mountains near Hurricane Ridge is still going... wind is sending smoke to the southwest now and out over the ocean.

 

 

[MossMan]

The fire in the Olympic Mountains near Hurricane Ridge is still going... wind is sending smoke to the southwest now and out over the ocean.

 

 

Wish we could have a wind reversal in E. WA...looks like the smoke from the Spokane area fires are settling over most of the area. Heading to Sun Lakes today thru Saturday. Oh well, was just as bad if not worse when I was over there last August. I then remember coming home to the aftermath of the rare August windstorm...no power for about 3 days but much easier to deal with in late summer!

[Jesse]

Pretty hard to fathom how we ever get a cooler than average warm season month here when every warm and sunny month is a good sign for another warm and sunny month as long as we get a requisite 4-7 day troughy period "out of the way".

 

So much science.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty hard to fathom how we ever get a cooler than average warm season month here when every warm and sunny month is a good sign for another warm and sunny month as long as we get a requisite 4-7 day troughy period "out of the way".

 

So much science.

Probably will work out that way though... don't kill the messenger.

 

The troughy period through the middle of July typically leads to a nice September. Not sure how it will end up in terms of departures... but a solid troughy period next week opens the door for another ridgy period. If we were staying warm and sunny through the first week of September then I would lean towards a bigger crash in the middle of September.

[Timmy Supercell]

Probably not. July 2013 was MUCH warmer at EUG than July 2016. June and August will probably end up slightly warmer this year. 

 

Average high at EUG in July 2013 was an astonishing 87.2. To be topped by an 87.5 in 2014 and an ungodly 88.2 in 2015. EUG had 6+ 100 degree days in July 2015... I don't even know what to do with that....

 

July 2013 was my 4th hottest July in Klamath Falls regarding Mean temp, 2014 being #1. Average highs though were closer to each other, 2013 being 89.7 (2nd hottest) and 2014 being 90.6 (#1 hottest).

 

June and August 2013 were a lot cooler than July by far, so summer 2013 is definitely not even top 5 in this area. It appears August 2013 is cooler than normal, but mostly induced by convective influence so that's actually a positive note.

 

July/August 2015 were completely normal, June was my only "hot" month last year, despite Summer 2015 being a very hot one.

[TT-SEA]

Wish we could have a wind reversal in E. WA...looks like the smoke from the Spokane area fires are settling over most of the area. Heading to Sun Lakes today thru Saturday. Oh well, was just as bad if not worse when I was over there last August. I then remember coming home to the aftermath of the rare August windstorm...no power for about 3 days but much easier to deal with in late summer!

Late August last year was pretty dynamic.

 

Bad timing on your trip right now since it will be so warm at home as well. I like to make those eastern WA trips when it's cool and cloudy over here. Problem is you only have about a week to plan it when you wait to see how the weather will play out.

[TT-SEA]

July 2013 was my 4th hottest July in Klamath Falls regarding Mean temp, 2014 being #1. Average highs though were closer to each other, 2013 being 89.7 (2nd hottest) and 2014 being 90.6 (#1 hottest).

 

June and August 2013 were a lot cooler than July by far, so summer 2013 is definitely not even top 5 in this area. It appears August 2013 is cooler than normal, but mostly induced by convective influence so that's actually a positive note.

 

July/August 2015 were completely normal, June was my only "hot" month last year, despite Summer 2015 being a very hot one.

Last summer definitely turned cooler and more dynamic as we got later in the season and into September. Sort of the opposite of this year so far. And ENSO is opposite as well.

[TT-SEA]

Wish we could have a wind reversal in E. WA...looks like the smoke from the Spokane area fires are settling over most of the area. Heading to Sun Lakes today thru Saturday. Oh well, was just as bad if not worse when I was over there last August. I then remember coming home to the aftermath of the rare August windstorm...no power for about 3 days but much easier to deal with in late summer!

 

Actually Randy... I just did a web cam tour of eastern WA and there is not really any smoke.     What you are seeing on the satellite image is the brown/tan landscape over there and not a layer of smoke.  

[Deweydog]

Pretty hard to fathom how we ever get a cooler than average warm season month here when every warm and sunny month is a good sign for another warm and sunny month as long as we get a requisite 4-7 day troughy period "out of the way".

'

So much science.

Random.

[BLI snowman]

Probably will work out that way though... don't kill the messenger.

 

The troughy period through the middle of July typically leads to a nice September. Not sure how it will end up in terms of departures... but a solid troughy period next week opens the door for another ridgy period. If we were staying warm and sunny through the first week of September then I would lean towards a bigger crash in the middle of September.

 

Early September is looking like a pretty nice crash at this point. Would make sense after a stretch of fifteen or more 85+ days in 3 weeks. Those types of stretches in this climate are generally followed by sharp, prolonged crashes. 

[TT-SEA]

Early September is looking like a pretty nice crash at this point. Would make sense after a stretch of fifteen or more 85+ days in 3 weeks. Those types of stretches in this climate are generally followed by sharp, prolonged crashes. 

 

 

Yes... early September crash is almost inevitable based on August.    

 

I don't think it will extend much past the first week of the month though.     Maybe another crash at the end of the month.  

[Deweydog]

Yes... early September crash is almost inevitable based on August.

 

I don't think it will extend much past the first week of the month though. Maybe another crash at the end of the month.

I too think it will warm up after the cool wave.

 

Crazy.

[Phil]

Yes... early September crash is almost inevitable based on August.

 

I don't think it will extend much past the first week of the month though. Maybe another crash at the end of the month.

Troughing will extend into/through mid-September.

[Jesse]

I too think it will warm up after the cool wave.

 

Crazy.

Why? We had some warm spells the last few years when the coolest it would get was average for weeks at a time. Even months.

 

Funny how troughing is simply seen as a mechanism to "set us up" for more ridging, while when we have ridging suddenly persistence becomes the word of the day.

[TT-SEA]

Troughing will extend into/through mid-September.

 

Possibly.   I am guessing 8/28 - 9/8ish

 

Then another warm period until about the last week of the month.   

[Phil]

Possibly. I am guessing 8/28 - 9/8ish

 

Then another warm period until about the last week of the month.

I'm not seeing any warm period right now. In all likelihood, the majority of the month will be troughy.

[Jesse]

Will likely last beyond 9/8. In all likelihood, the majority of the month will be troughy.

Isn't that what you said about August?

[TT-SEA]

I'm not seeing any warm period right now. In all likelihood, the majority of the month will be troughy.

 

 

We will see.  

 

I doubt that happens.  

[Deweydog]

Why? We had some warm spells the last few years when the coolest it would get was average for weeks at a time. Even months.

 

Funny how troughing is simply seen as a mechanism to "set us up" for more ridging, while when we have ridging suddenly persistence becomes the word of the day.

Are you cutting yourself while typing this?

 

I think September will end up around average. ******CoUlD****** end up with a (-) in front.

[BLI snowman]

Yes... early September crash is almost inevitable based on August.    

 

I don't think it will extend much past the first week of the month though.     Maybe another crash at the end of the month.  

 

September can be a pretty cloudy, rainy month in some years. 

[Phil]

Isn't that what you said about August?

Gotta love anomalous intraseasonal forcing. Crazy fluke it wound up so far west..more-so than any Niña year in recorded history. The first 10 days of the month were still the troughiest of the entire summer.

 

However, this time, the state of the the tropics is more set in stone.

[Jesse]

Are you cutting yourself while typing this?

 

I think September will end up around average. ******CoUlD****** end up with a (-) in front.

Weird comment.

 

I think I make a decent point.

[Phil]

We will see.

 

I doubt that happens.

The majority of (-ENSO) Septembers following warm Augusts finished cooler than average. So, "history" would suggest that route is taken, as does model guidance.

[TT-SEA]

Gotta love anomalous intraseasonal forcing. Crazy fluke it wound up so far west..more-so than any Niña year in recorded history. The first 10 days of the month were still the troughiest of the entire summer.

 

However, this time, the state of the the tropics is more set in stone.

 

 

Nothing is set in stone.  

 

Also... that little ULL in early August which was completely cut-off from the main flow hardly felt like the troughiest period of the summer.    I think it was the slowest moving ULL that I have ever seen here.   Strange how the numbers work out but sometimes its better to consider context.   The beast around 7/9 was much more impressive and connected to the main flow.  

[Deweydog]

Weird comment.

 

I think I make a decent point.

What difference does it make?

 

Flawed science of all flavors flows through this place like water. Whether it's wrong or upsetting, some things can be gleaned by paying attention to the natural rhythms of our patterns. Doesn't always work out, but whateva. You don't have to agree.

[Phil]

Nothing is set in stone.

 

Also... that little ULL which was completely cut-off from the main flow hardly felt like the troughiest period of the summer. Strange how the numbers work out but sometimes its better to consider context. The beast around 7/9 was much more impressive and connected to the main flow.

The ULL/trough was a response to upstream NPAC height rises that would've been expected in the said forcing regime at the time.

 

Doesn't matter if it was a ULL or a trough coupled with the large scale streamflow. The pattern would've produced a trough of some sort either way.

[Phil]

What difference does it make?

 

Flawed science of all flavors flows through this place like water. Whether it's wrong or upsetting, some things can be gleaned by paying attention to the natural rhythms of our patterns. Doesn't always work out, but whateva. You don't have to agree.

So you're a lawyer and a scientist?

[ShawniganLake]

I am really not feeling any prolonged stretches of warmth are coming in September.  Sure, some warm sunny days are going to happen, but I doubt any serious warmth locks in.  I am treating these next few days as a farewell to summer.  Going to make sure to make it down to the lake the next few evenings. 

[Deweydog]

So you're a lawyer and a scientist?

If paying attention makes someone a scientist, then yes!

[TT-SEA]

I am really not feeling any prolonged stretches of warmth are coming in September.  Sure, some warm sunny days are going to happen, but I doubt any serious warmth locks in.  I am treating these next few days as a farewell to summer.  Going to make sure to make it down to the lake the next few evenings. 

 

You will be pleasantly surprised then.