August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I was completely off-base. I was completely wrong. I has no basis for my interpretation. What else do you want?

 

You posted excitedly and with strong, dramatic language about the developing Nina and I interpreted that to mean a strong Nina was coming. I don't care about the timing of events.

 

I showed you the posts that led me to my incorrect conclusion.

You called for a strong Niña, which excited me and caused me to be overly dramatic.

 

[TT-SEA]

You called for a strong Niña, which excited me and caused me to be overly dramatic.

 

 

 

OK.   That is what happened.    Sure.    Lets go with that.   

[Deweydog]

Euro alert!

[Phil]

I said its my fault and I take the blame... what else do you want?

Just don't blame me for your forecast busts, that's all I'm asking.

 

I'm obviously not the reason you were forecasting a strong Niña, because you were already predicting that before the posts in question even existed.

[Jesse]

Euro alert!

Massive, summer saving heatwave at the end?

[Deweydog]

Massive, summer saving heatwave at the end?

Probably not. Just thought it would break things up a bit.

[wx_statman]

Though I'm not surprised you two would fail to pick up what should be obvious and straightforward, you should know that my posts on the IO had nothing to do with the ENSO progression, there wasn't even a hint of me suggesting otherwise.

 

You were predicting a strong Niña well in advance of that. Unless you can find ENSO-related posts preceding that forecast, your claim is baseless.

 

There you go again. 

[wx_statman]

So, let me get this straight.

 

I'm not allowed to label an ENSO cooling of greater than 1.5C over 8 weeks a "crash", because Tim might accidently misinterpret that as me forecasting a strong Niña? Despite me having explicitly stated otherwise?

 

I don't know why I still post here. This is beyond ridiculous.

 

You can always take a break. 

[TT-SEA]

Probably not. Just thought it would break things up a bit.

 

 

It does look better for next week.  

[Phil]

There you go again.

How can I possibly come to any other conclusion? Really?

 

You and Tim are the only people that were somehow "duped" by my (nonexistent) drama regarding the ENSO evolution, despite me having explicitly stated that I wasn't forecast a strong Niña.

 

Are you a scientific minded human being who thinks for himself?

[BLI snowman]

Massive, summer saving heatwave at the end?

 

850mb temps rebound up to 10c. Sweat city. 

[Jesse]

850mb temps rebound up to 10c. Sweat city.

I'll stop the trolling. Like you said yesterday, it would be nice to see temps just return to average or a little above, as opposed to the unabated default torching lately.

[TT-SEA]

How can I possibly come to any other conclusion? Really?

 

You and Tim are the only people that were somehow "duped" by my (nonexistent) drama regarding the ENSO evolution, despite me having explicitly stated that I wasn't forecast a strong Niña.

 

Are you a scientific minded human being who thinks for himself?

 

You are the expert.   Remember that when using dramatic language.   It can lead people astray.   You have a reputation here of doing that for years.   Just something to work on.  

[Bryant]

You may have not forecasted them, but your interpretation of the models at the time and thinking their face value would translate to anomalies of that magnitude was pretty outlandish. Even Big Mac, your west coast surrogate, I'm sure scoffed at that one.

There are many members here who translate the models knowing full well they won't verify as shown. The whole -10 topic to me was just a sign of cooler weather ahead, never expected that kind of negative departure to actually occur.

 

Looking at his call from a 500mb perspective, he was absolutely correct. From a micro climate perspective, not as much.

[TT-SEA]

So... anywhooooo.

 

I like the analog years with a cool neutral or a very weak Nina.      A whole new set of years to look at now.  

[Jesse]

12z Euro does look a little dangerous at day 10.

[Bryant]

He doesn't know how to put the brakes on. Give him a few years.

Why put the brakes on when you have Tim continuing to push?

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro does look a little dangerous at day 10.

 

 

Yes... if that trough digs out into the Bering Sea we might be able to pump up a ridge here and savor a little more summer.      

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-bfFWRb.png

[Phil]

Why put the brakes on when you have Tim continuing to push?

Tim could shoot me in the head, and WxStuntman would still find a way to justify it.

[Bryant]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is trying to follow Tim's schedule, bringing summer back after the 10th of the month.

GFS is reverting back to an El Nino like circulation in the tropics in the long range, resulting in the depicted 500mb pattern. As of now, GFS is the only model currently showing this reversal

[TT-SEA]

Tim could shoot me in the head, and WxStuntman would still find a way to justify it.

 

Drama?   

[wx_statman]

Why put the brakes on when you have Tim continuing to push?

 

Tim isn't the only one pushing. And Phil is the one personally insulting people. 

[Deweydog]

12z Euro does look a little dangerous at day 10.

Warm up after the cool down?

 

Details at 11.

[TT-SEA]

Warm up after the cool down?

 

Details at 11.

 

 

Could go either way!  

[wx_statman]

Tim could shoot me in the head, and WxStuntman would still find a way to justify it.

 

Yeah, you're the victim. Why not stick to weather? 

[Deweydog]

There are many members here who translate the models knowing full well they won't verify as shown. The whole -10 topic to me was just a sign of cooler weather ahead, never expected that kind of negative departure to actually occur.

 

Looking at his call from a 500mb perspective, he was absolutely correct. From a micro climate perspective, not as much.

It was hyperbole fueled by a lack of intimate knowledge of our climate.

 

An example of two areas where he needs work, beside the tendency to hurl personal insults when he feels discredited.

[Phil]

Drama?

Humor with a sprinkle of sarcasm.

[Bryant]

It was hyperbole fueled by a lack of intimate knowledge of our climate.

 

An example of two areas where he needs work, beside the tendency to hurl personal insults when he feels discredited.

Yes, maybe he needs to work on his filter a bit. However, debating with Tim can be very infuriating. We all know that

[Phil]

Tim isn't the only one pushing. And Phil is the one personally insulting people.

Tim has thrown more insults at me today than I have to him. He's made all the accusations, actually.

 

You just have some stupid little vendetta against me.

[Deweydog]

Yes, maybe he needs to work on his filter a bit. However, debating with Tim can be very infuriating. We all know that

They most certainly feed off each other.

[TT-SEA]

Tim has thrown more insults at me today than I have to him. He's made all the accusations, actually.

 

You just have some stupid little vendetta against me.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

General trend is upward starting next week...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

Warm up after the cool down?

 

Details at 11.

Oversimplifying things.

 

There is a difference between normal warm ups and cool downs and the nauseatingly persistent warm anomalies we have seen the past 2.5 years.

[Deweydog]

Oversimplifying things.

 

There is a difference between normal warm ups and cool downs and the nauseatingly persistent warm anomalies we have seen the past 2.5 years.

I get it.

 

I have a feeling it will indeed warm up however.

[Thunder98]

Can we stop this stupid argument?

[Front Ranger]

Yes... if that trough digs out into the Bering Sea we might be able to pump up a ridge here and savor a little more summer.      

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-bfFWRb.png

 

Looks more likely to retrograde again to me.

[TT-SEA]

Looks more likely to retrograde again to me.

 

Certainly possible.   No way of knowing.

 

Unless Matt is now in control of the global weather patterns?    If so... he should get his act in gear here!  

[Geos]

God Almighty... is this a weather board or a battle to see who is more stubborn? Here, I'll try to fix this since you guys don't want to:

 

Tim is stubborn, doesn't want to admit he is wrong. Will continue to point out/insult the other for inconsistencies.

Phil is stubborn, doesn't want to admit he is wrong. Will continue to point out/insult the other for inconsistencies.

 

Is there such a thing as 'agree to disagree' with you guys, or will you continue this pissing match for the foreseeable future?

 

I mean, we are heading into September. There should be more things to talk about than who-said-what-when about a summer that is already over. Don't you guys have a board specifically for this sh*t?? I think arguing for 3+ pages is enough. Move on.

 

This.

Let's wrap up the pissing match or move it over here...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1371-the-tim-and-phil-thread/

[luminen]

General trend is upward starting next week...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

The general trend is downward between now and December. Can't wait for fall. 

[Geos]

Only 64° as of now. Hard pressed to make 70° with all these clouds.