August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Well if last Saturday, Sunday, Monday were any indication we should be in the mid 70's. Delightfully below average.

It's probably running too warm today.

[Deweydog]

It's probably running too warm today.

A lot is riding on this. Don't want to start this generation-defining two weeks of weather on the wrong foot.

[Jesse]

A lot is riding on this. Don't want to start this generation-defining two weeks of weather on the wrong foot.

Just kind of fun to track.

 

Some pretty heavy drizzle in SW Portland at the moment. Nice to see.

[Deweydog]

Just kind of fun to track.

 

Some pretty heavy drizzle in SW Portland at the moment. Nice to see.

68.

[Jesse]

68.

Bold.

 

69.

[Deweydog]

Bold.

 

69.

Wuss.

[Jesse]

Wuss.

I will say, the fact that they dropped a little when precip moved in bodes VERY well for your call.

[Deweydog]

I will say, the fact that they dropped a little when precip moved in bodes VERY well for your call.

With the trend, they may not make it out of the 50's...

[Jesse]

With the trend, they may not make it out of the 50's...

63 now.

 

That would be as impossible and unprecedented as a coolish October following a coolish September.

[Deweydog]

63 now.

 

That would be as impossible and unprecedented as a coolish October following a coolish September.

This may indeed be this fall's Picasso. October on the other hand may end up being some random wall art from Ross.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, the slow moving front could help out, lingering over the area through peak heating.

 

There could always be ill-timed sun breaks between 5-7pm. Gonna be a close one! 

[Jesse]

There could always be ill-timed sun breaks between 5-7pm. Gonna be a close one!

That's why I went with 69.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has 69 today at PDX... its in the bag.

[Jesse]

This may indeed be this fall's Picasso. October on the other hand may end up being some random wall art from Ross.

Huh, I figured the warm month would be the masterpiece in your analogy.

[Deweydog]

That's why I went with 69.

Front isn't strong enough to see much of any clearing. You're screwed.

[Deweydog]

Huh, I figured the warm month would be the masterpiece in your analogy.

As much as it doesn't fit your needs for sectarianism around here, I love the upcoming pattern. The late heat was fun, but it's time for school.

[Jesse]

Front isn't strong enough to see much of any clearing. You're screwed.

PDX is famous for tacking a few degrees onto 5pm highs these days, regardless of conditions.

[Deweydog]

PDX is famous for tacking a few degrees onto 5pm highs these days, regardless of conditions.

This will be a true test of its clearly faulty thermometer.

[Jesse]

This will be a true test of its clearly faulty thermometer.

Low of only 60 at AST this morning.

 

Someone needs to spearhead an investigation if they haven't already.

[Deweydog]

Low of only 60 at AST this morning.

 

Someone needs to spearhead an investigation if they haven't already.

Phil is on a Delta flight westbound over Lincoln, NE right now to do just that. That and visit his droves of family members living in the Space Needle's basement.

[stuffradio]

Long range la la land shows snow for parts of the middle of the US around the 12th. That was the 6Z though.

[TT-SEA]

Long range la la land shows snow for parts of the middle of the US around the 12th. That was the 6Z though.

 

Not the 12Z ECMWF

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls19/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls19-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-T9saia.png

[Jesse]

Long range la la land shows snow for parts of the middle of the US around the 12th. That was the 6Z though.

Snow in the Northern Rockies and North Cascades at some point is probably a better bet given the pattern.

[Jesse]

Hey Justin, the 12z runs give us a shot at a cool 11th this year.

 

Would truly be a sign that the tides have turned.

[Front Ranger]

Reload city on the 12z.

[BLI snowman]

Hey Justin, the 12z runs give us a shot at a cool 11th this year.

 

Would truly be a sign that the tides have turned.

 

Looks like a good setup for a warm cloudy low and late afternoon sunbreak overachievement combo.

 

We're likely screwed.

[BLI snowman]

Reload city on the 12z.

 

We could break the 10 day barrier with that one.

[Deweydog]

These recent model runs make me think we really could make America great again!

[Jesse]

Reload city on the 12z.

I guess the day to day high temp data must not be available for cool runs.

[BLI snowman]

These recent model runs make me think we really could make America great again!

 

The CFSv2 shows a Clinton victory.

[Jesse]

The CFSv2 shows a Clinton victory.

Today's Euro was so good that a Sanders victory is still possible.

[MossMan]

The ground is nearly wet! Been spitting off and on for the last few hours. Looks like 20 muddy dog paws from here on out!

[BLI snowman]

Today's Euro was so good that a Sanders victory is still possible.

 

Free and never, ever ending -5 departures for the entirety of the 2017-2021 period. And unicorns. Can't forget the unicorns.

[Deweydog]

Free and never, ever ending -5 departures for the entirety of the 2017-2021 period. And unicorns. Can't forget the unicorns.

Forecaster apathy can reign supreme!

[Chewbacca Defense]

Long range la la land shows snow for parts of the middle of the US around the 12th. That was the 6Z though.

 

 

Noob question here....Do the different model runs (i.e. 6z vs 12z) focus on different aspects of the forecast, or analyze the data in a different way?  I ask because over my year or so of lurking on this forum I have noticed a few times where someone would mention an unusual characteristic or outlier for a given model run, to which someone will reply "oh that because its the 6z run" 

 

I read into it that the model run in question is (presumably) programmed with a specific bias.

 

I have't quite been able to tell if it's sarcasm or a genuine observation as there is rarely follow up dialogue.  

[Deweydog]

Noob question here....Do the different model runs (i.e. 6z vs 12z) focus on different aspects of the forecast, or analyze the data in a different way? I ask because over my year or so of lurking on this forum I have noticed a few times where someone would mention an unusual characteristic or outlier for a given model run, to which someone will reply "oh that because its the 6z run"

 

I read into it that the model run in question is (presumably) programmed with a specific bias.

 

I have't quite been able to tell if it's sarcasm or a genuine observation as there is rarely follow up dialogue.

The different runs of each model run data the same. The 6z and 18z GFS use slightly older data so their is a belief they may be inherently less reliable. There is no specific reason either run can't be accurate however.

[TT-SEA]

The CFSv2 shows a Clinton victory.

 

The CFS and latest ECMWF weeklies are really warm from mid-September through mid-October (never had access to these models).

 

On the flip side... the 12Z ECMWF shows SEA below 70 for the next 10 days.   Also shows PDX below 70 until Sunday and then only low 70s after that time.

 

Last year SEA was in the 60s for 8 consecutive days beginning on 8/30.     And the rest of September did not torch last year.   It was basically normal for the remainder of September.    

[Deweydog]

The CFS and latest ECMWF weeklies are really warm from mid-September through mid-October (never had access to these models).

 

On the flip side... the 12Z ECMWF shows SEA below 70 for the next 10 days. Also shows PDX below 70 until Sunday and then only low 70s after that time.

 

Last year SEA was in the 60s for 8 consecutive days beginning on 8/30. And the rest of September did not torch last year. It was basically normal for the remainder of September.

Thought it was supposed to be 80 on Monday?

[Front Ranger]

The different runs of each model run data the same. The 6z and 18z GFS use slightly older data so their is a belief they may be inherently less reliable. There is no specific reason either run can't be accurate however.

 

I believe I've seen it a couple places that the 6z and 18z are slightly less accurate. But I think it really depends on the pattern and how fast things are changing.

[TT-SEA]

Thought it was supposed to be 80 on Monday?

 

 

I agreed it was probably too warm.   

 

And the models have changed .  

 

Maybe its still 10 degrees too high??!