August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

70 is closer to my forecast today than yours.

I was swept away by Jim's "everything has changed, it's happening!!!" posts. Rookie mistake.

[Jesse]

I was swept away by Jim's "everything has changed, it's happening!!!" posts. Rookie mistake.

Looks like they did it.

 

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

[Jesse]

Pretty crazy they will make it through July and August with no sub-70 highs. There were ample opportunities.

[Deweydog]

Pretty crazy they will make it through July and August with no sub-70 highs. There were ample opportunities.

I wouldn't call it crazy since it was a fairly warm summer overall and the coolest period was during what is typically the peak.

[TT-SEA]

GFS ensemble mean still trending upward after the 10th...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Deweydog]

RAIN!!!

[Jesse]

I wouldn't call it crazy since it was a fairly warm summer overall and the coolest period was during what is typically the peak.

There were a couple days that came pretty close and for all practical purposes shouldn't have hit it. My point was it's not like we saw a summer that lacked opportunities.

[TT-SEA]

Rain and 67 at PDX at 5 p.m. but the band was just a little too late... 70 is official. 

[BLI snowman]

There were a couple days that came pretty close and for all practical purposes shouldn't have hit it. My point was it's not like we saw a summer that lacked opportunities.

I think I have had at least 4 or 5 sub-70 days since July 1. That extra latitude goes an extremely long ways if you're a summer cold enthusiast.

[TT-SEA]

I think I have had at least 4 or 5 sub-70 days since July 1. That extra latitude goes an extremely long ways if you're a summer cold enthusiast.

 

 

69 at SEA today.   They managed to do it.  

[Deweydog]

There were a couple days that came pretty close and for all practical purposes shouldn't have hit it. My point was it's not like we saw a summer that lacked opportunities.

If they shouldn't have hit it they wouldn't have.

 

Even the last two summers each had a sub-70 haven because we got what we typically need for it. Rain.

[BLI snowman]

69 at SEA today. They managed to do it.

68 here. I generally always run a degree or two cooler than PDX in the afternoons during the warm months.

[Jesse]

Very nice to see the rain.

[Kayla]

Exactly.

 

Turn that map over and it's an east-based event.

 

I wonder if Eleven could vouch that for us!?

[FroYoBro]

Had a pretty heavy shower here. Weird stuff. 

[Front Ranger]

I wonder if Eleven could vouch that for us!?

Stranger things have happened...

[wx_statman]

There could always be ill-timed sun breaks between 5-7pm. Gonna be a close one! 

 

Looks like the sunbreaks didn't wait until after 5pm. We got our 70 fair and square.

 

BTW I was in downtown Vancouver around 4:45 and it was raining pretty hard. 

[wx_statman]

Pretty crazy they will make it through July and August with no sub-70 highs. There were ample opportunities.

 

If we can re-establish cold troughing in the July 1-10 and August 20-31 periods, we'll be back in business. This was the 4th straight summer without any real cold troughing in those periods, at least not enough to bring sub-70 highs to PDX.

[Phil]

Looks like for winter fans, the important stuff begins in ~ 10 days.

 

Over the next two weeks, the polar-stratospheric circulation will make the seasonal flip from its summer mode (anticyclonic/high) to its winter mode (cyclonic/polar vortex). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2016083118&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=83

 

Once the cold season PV develops (mid-September) we'll have to watch how the dynamic between the troposphere and stratosphere unfolds and/or changes, as this can often provide clues as to the behaviors we'll observe during the winter.

[MossMan]

So Sunday appears to be the next dry day around the Puget Sound? I can't put off staining our new fence much longer.

[TT-SEA]

So Sunday appears to be the next dry day around the Puget Sound? I can't put off staining our new fence much longer

 

 

Take exactly as shown on the 12Z ECMWF... Sunday and Monday are dry for the Puget Sound region but quite cool.  

[Kayla]

Stranger things have happened...

 

Glad someone got the reference! 

[snow_wizard]

So Sunday appears to be the next dry day around the Puget Sound? I can't put off staining our new fence much longer.

 

You had all of those dry days and now a few wet days come and you're screwed?

[snow_wizard]

Pretty remarkable SEA had 11 below normal days this month, and yet the month ended up being one of the warmer Augusts on record.  No easy trick.

[Bryant]

Looks like for winter fans, the important stuff begins in ~ 10 days.

 

Over the next two weeks, the polar-stratospheric circulation will make the seasonal flip from its summer mode (anticyclonic/high) to its winter mode (cyclonic/polar vortex). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2016083118&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=83

 

Once the cold season PV develops (mid-September) we'll have to watch how the dynamic between the troposphere and stratosphere unfolds and/or changes, as this can often provide clues as to the behaviors we'll observe during the winter.

Back when I was interested in the LRC (reoccurring cycles), the "new" cycle would always set up around September... guess the changing PV is what they were referring to. Thanks for the info

[MossMan]

You had all of those dry days and now a few wet days come and you're screwed?

Yes! I was too busy enjoying the sun and warmth with my family in my rare down time! At least the grass finally slowed down so I don't have to mow constantly!

[Front Ranger]

If they shouldn't have hit it they wouldn't have.

 

Even the last two summers each had a sub-70 haven because we got what we typically need for it. Rain.

 

But didn't you just say this AM that PDX shouldn't hit 70 today? 

[Jesse]

But didn't you just say this AM that PDX shouldn't hit 70 today?

I recall him saying it would be a fluke if they did.

 

I would define a fluke as a day where they really shouldn't have (several things working against it) but they still did. There have been a handful of such days this summer.

[Front Ranger]

Glad someone got the reference! 

 

Fun show.

[Front Ranger]

Back when I was interested in the LRC (reoccurring cycles), the "new" cycle would always set up around September... guess the changing PV is what they were referring to. Thanks for the info

 

And by October it's well established. Which is why that month can be telling for the following winter.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty remarkable SEA had 11 below normal days this month, and yet the month ended up being one of the warmer Augusts on record.  No easy trick.

 

Please don't be displaying that picture over and over with every post.  Make it your avatar.   Having that pic show up so large with every post is just screeeeeaaaaaaming jinx for this winter as well.   

 

Almost as annoying as Andrew having endless stats from his house in his signature. 

[Phil]

Back when I was interested in the LRC (reoccurring cycles), the "new" cycle would always set up around September... guess the changing PV is what they were referring to. Thanks for the info

You're welcome. Hoping to avoid another raging +NAM/+EPO, coupled to the mesopause like early last winter. That was ugly stuff right there.

[Phil]

And by October it's well established. Which is why that month can be telling for the following winter.

Sometimes the winter waveguide will organize earlier, in early/mid September, usually in years where the hemispheric wavenumber is lower than average. In other years, it'll take until November, usually in years where the hemispheric wavenumber is higher than average.

[Front Ranger]

Sometimes the winter waveguide will organize earlier, in early/mid September, usually in years where the hemispheric wavenumber is lower than average. In other years, it'll take until November, usually in years where the hemispheric wavenumber is higher than average.

 

Yeah, I guess what I meant was usually the wave pattern is established by October.

[Jesse]

Pretty remarkable SEA had 11 below normal days this month, and yet the month ended up being one of the warmer Augusts on record. No easy trick.

Love that you brought that pic back in your sig!

[Phil]

Yeah, I guess what I meant was usually the wave pattern is established by October.

I agree. I wouldn't want to rely solely on the October tendencies in extrapolation, though.

 

In years like 2012-13, for example, entire system was unstable and/or in transition through boreal winter, so we never really managed a dominant waveguide that winter. The pattern swung differently every month until A/M/J that spring/summer, when that notorious wave-3 pattern set in for the next 2 years.

[TT-SEA]

Should we all clutter the forum with large pics of silly mythical crap over and over?

[TT-SEA]

Yes?

[Jesse]

Should we all clutter the forum with large pics over and over?

Hiding people's signature is an option here.

[Phil]

Regarding my above post, I'm concerned this be another "unstable" year, where the tropics and higher latitudes/external forcings won't coherently resonate. In other words, seasonal scale unpredictability might be quite high, and the pattern might fluctuate frequently.