August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

PDX up to 66!

[ShawniganLake]

PDX up to 66!

I think they can do it.

[Jesse]

I think they can do it.

Stay below 70?

[TT-SEA]

Some warming in the ENSO regions in the last week...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

 

Here is the latest SSTA map...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Stay below 70?

Nope. Gonna be 70 on the nose.

[Jesse]

Nope. Gonna be 70 on the nose.

We shall see. This front does kind of feel like it's falling apart right on top of us.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be butthole-puckering few hours coming up...

[Phil]

The different runs of each model run data the same. The 6z and 18z GFS use slightly older data so their is a belief they may be inherently less reliable. There is no specific reason either run can't be accurate however.

They don't use "older data". Every cycle utilizes a slew of updated satellite derived observations, which are by far the largest component of the ingested data aggregate. All cycles (00z/06z/12z/18z) also utilize radiosonde data the current cycle and several older cycles for hindcasting and extrapolative reasons, however give that more radiosonde are launched at 00z/12z vs 06z/18z, there is indeed more "older" radiosonde data utilized in the 06z/18z than there is in the 00z/12z cycles, but not significantly so.

[Phil]

Noob question here....Do the different model runs (i.e. 6z vs 12z) focus on different aspects of the forecast, or analyze the data in a different way? I ask because over my year or so of lurking on this forum I have noticed a few times where someone would mention an unusual characteristic or outlier for a given model run, to which someone will reply "oh that because its the 6z run"

 

I read into it that the model run in question is (presumably) programmed with a specific bias.

 

I have't quite been able to tell if it's sarcasm or a genuine observation as there is rarely follow up dialogue.

The detonations you're referencing here (06z, 12z, 18z, 00z) are zulu hours...00z corresponds to 5pmPDT/4pm PST, 06z is 11pm PDT/10pmPST, and so on.

[Jesse]

Gonna be butthole-puckering few hours coming up...

Sunbreak here!

[Front Ranger]

Some warming in the ENSO regions in the last week...

 

 

 

Here is the latest SSTA map...

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif

 

Shaping up to be a west-based event. This is good for you guys.

[Trainwreck]

Shaping up to be a west-based event. This is good for you guys.

Depending on how one looks at things.

[Deweydog]

Depending on how one looks at things.

Exactly.

 

Turn that map over and it's an east-based event.

[Jesse]

Already up to Dewey's forecast high. Ouch.

[Deweydog]

Already up to Dewey's forecast high. Ouch.

This is not your father's climate.

[Weather101]

Already up to Dewey's forecast high. Ouch.

71 would be nice

[Jesse]

PDX now reporting 70.

 

Well so much for that, lol.

[Deweydog]

PDX now reporting 70.

 

Well so much for that, lol.

 

That's a goofball reading.  Have a little faith, Debbie D.  

[Jesse]

That's a goofball reading. Have a little faith, Debbie D.

Lots of sunbreaks where I'm at in Central Vancouver now.

[Deweydog]

Lots of sunbreaks where I'm at in Central Vancouver now.

 

You may need to seek safe haven in 67 degree Hillsboro.  

[Jesse]

You may need to seek safe haven in 67 degree Hillsboro.

Looks like a line of showers may move in in the next hour or so, though.

 

#gamechanger

[Geos]

Some warming in the ENSO regions in the last week...

 

 

Here is the latest SSTA map...

 

 

Modoki la Niña in the works?

[Geos]

0.07" of rain so far. 

 

So far only 65° for today.

[TT-SEA]

Modoki la Niña in the works?

 

 

Not sure... there was warming in the western ENSO regions as well.   

 

Watch the 30 day loop... I think in the next week that warmer water in the eastern regions will continue to spread westward.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

[Phil]

Not sure... there was warming in the western ENSO regions as well.

 

Watch the 30 day loop... I think in the next week that warmer water in the eastern regions will continue to spread westward.

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

Until it is mixed out by the next trade wind burst..subsurface anomalies are well below average with another oceanic KW now developing.

[Jesse]

Until it is mixed out by the next trade wind burst..subsurface anomalies are well below average with another oceanic KW now developing.

Nope, this will become an El Niño to punish the cool freaks who are enjoying the upcoming troughy period.

[Phil]

The CFS and latest ECMWF weeklies are really warm from mid-September through mid-October (never had access to these models).

 

On the flip side... the 12Z ECMWF shows SEA below 70 for the next 10 days. Also shows PDX below 70 until Sunday and then only low 70s after that time.

 

Last year SEA was in the 60s for 8 consecutive days beginning on 8/30. And the rest of September did not torch last year. It was basically normal for the remainder of September.

Verbatim, I don't recall seeing the EPS weeklies predict cooler than average temperatures over the PNW beyond d20 all summer.

 

I would recommend taking note of where the highest 500mb heights are forecasted, and extrapolate from there.

[stuffradio]

It's pouring rain at my house right now. Diversity!

[TT-SEA]

Until it is mixed out by the next trade wind burst..subsurface anomalies are well below average with another oceanic KW now developing.

 

OK.    Good information.

 

Running the loop... the warmer water is being pushed westward.     And the 90-day loop is even more pronounced in fading the cooler anomalies.

 

I am sure its evil to some people to discuss anything but signs of a strengthening Nina  (and I don't mean you).  

[Phil]

Interesting development today..seems like both the EPS and GEFS reignite the MJO or some sort of intraseasonal propagatory wave. Manifests clearly over the Pacific/WHEM starting later next week.

 

Extrapolating from there, one expect an initial reduction in trades over the ENSO regions through week2, followed by a trade wind burst during week3 as the wave propagates back into the EHEM domain.

[Deweydog]

Nope, this will become an El Niño to punish the cool freaks who are enjoying the upcoming troughy period.

Please secure the lame humor and make way for intellectual discussion.

 

There is no way a nino develops between now and winter. Weak nina/cool neutral is far more likely.

[Jesse]

Please secure the lame humor and make way for intellectual discussion.

 

There is no way a nino develops between now and winter. Weak nina/cool neutral is far more likely.

Settle down.

 

So how about those bogus 70s continuing at PDX?

[Phil]

OK. Good information.

 

Running the loop... the warmer water is being pushed westward. And the 90-day loop is even more pronounced in fading the cooler anomalies.

 

I am sure its evil to some people to discuss anything but signs of a strengthening Nina (and I don't mean you).

Thanks, no problem.

 

I personally wouldn't call it "warmer water pushed westward" because that's not really what it is. Rather, the strongest trades have propagated westward towards the dateline in recent weeks, reducing the upwelling rate in the EPAC, hence leading to a warming of the immediate surface SSTs.

 

When trades strengthen again over the EPAC during the second half of September, those warm waters will be obliterated quite quickly, IMO.

[Deweydog]

Settle down.

 

So how about those bogus 70s continuing at PDX?

Practice what you preach.

 

And I think you're just gonna have to sweat the 70 all the way out. A perfect stress storm.

[Jesse]

Practice what you preach.

 

And I think you're just gonna have to sweat the 70 all the way out. A perfect stress storm.

68?

[Deweydog]

68?

That train has left the station. You're screwed.

[Jesse]

That train has left the station. You're screwed.

I'm still feeling 69.

 

As long as those 70s were as bogus as a Bill & Ted sequel.

[Deweydog]

64 with moderate rain in Hillsboro. Too little too late????

[Deweydog]

I'm still feeling 69.

 

As long as those 70s were as bogus as a Bill & Ted sequel.

I think they're punching those 70's in just to mess with you.

[Jesse]

I think they're punching those 70's in just to mess with you.

70 is closer to my forecast today than yours.