August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

No, that's not it.

Then what is it?

[snow_wizard]

September has actually overtaken June in terms of average temp @ PDX between the 1961-90 and 1981-10 baselines. Its not necessarily the same story on Vancouver Island. 

 

September is still capable of being colder than June though especially on min temps.

[Jesse]

They both have their strengths and weaknesses. 

 

Look, I've laid into Tim plenty of times. He has a much less blunt way of attacking people than Phil, no doubt, and still very irritating. But whatever, we've seen what happens with they both narrow their sites on each other. I think they'll learn from that. And we'll all be better for it.

 

Unless wxstatman decides a repeat is in order.

 

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At least with Phil, he is fairly up front with his attacks. Not to excuse him, he needs to get better at taking criticism and learning humility if he's going to last here, but at least if he calls you a brainless sh*thead you have something to work with.

 

With Tim it is subtle, underhanded, pervasive and constant, delivered under a permanent guise of mock innocence. Very passive aggressive.

 

Kind of like comparing getting mauled by a grizzly to a slow, months long bout of chinese water torture.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still not totally sold on the warmer pattern being shown after September 10.  Still tons of potential for that 150 ridge to amplify unexpectedly around a week from now.  It could easily go either way.

[Front Ranger]

At least with Phil, he is fairly up front with his attacks. Not to excuse him, he needs to get better at taking criticism and learning humility if he's going to last here, but at least if he calls you a brainless sh*thead you have something to work with. With Tim it is subtle, underhanded, pervasive and constant, delivered under a constant guise of mock innocence. Very passive aggressive.

 

Kind of like comparing getting mauled by a grizzly to a slow, months long bout of chinese water torture.

 

Nailed it. 

[wx_statman]

The fake attempts to objectively "critique" my personality, the intentional mischaracterizations, the strawman arguments, etc..I could go on.

 

Would you call me a "rampaging animal" to my face? Given the fact you don't even know me personally?

 

I disagree with the first line. The answer to the second line is no, because I didn't call you a rampaging animal. I said you're the equivalent of a rampaging animal in this forum. That's how I see you right now. Now, if I felt you were acting that way in a live group conversation (actually insulting people to their faces) I would probably say it in that setting as well. Although chances are, the group would have cleared out by that point because nobody would want to talk to you. 

[wx_statman]

September is still capable of being colder than June though especially on min temps.

 

Absolutely.

[Front Ranger]

September is still capable of being colder than June though especially on min temps.

 

They certainly aren't identical months. June tends to be a steadier climb from spring into summer, while September can be either a long extension of it, or a quick descent into fall.

[ShawniganLake]

Whoa, whoa, whoa. September is now the third summer month, didn't you hear? Left June in the dust.

 

Seriously, I still say June 15 to Sep 15 is the PNW summer per long term climatology, and I'll beat my chest with machismo at anyone who disagrees.

I like those dates.  To me, hot days feel less summery in the second half of September.  Shorter days and longer and cooler evenings.  June is still warmer than September here and I believe Shawnigan has only hit 90 once after Sept 15th.  In fact, May has a higher all-time monthly maximum than September. 

[Jesse]

I'm still not totally sold on the warmer pattern being shown after September 10.  Still tons of potential for that 150 ridge to amplify unexpectedly around a week from now.  It could easily go either way.

 

Definitely not outside the realm of possibility. There are many cool ensemble members at that range.

[Geos]

@ Phil and wx_statman- that's enough with the off topic comments. This is a weather and climate forum lets stick to that subject area and drop the rest now or I will continue to delete posts. 

 

If you have something further to say take it to PM. Other members don't want to keep reading these off topic posts including myself.

[wx_statman]

So, you claim you're not "critiquing" me or building strawmen, yet that's exactly what you just did in this post.

 

Again, thanks for proving my point for me. You're making this quite easy.

 

No.

 

Look, we're clearly not going to get anywhere with this. I've had enough of you for one day.

[wx_statman]

@ Phil and wx_statman- that's enough with the off topic comments. This is a weather and climate forum lets stick to that subject area and drop the rest now or I will continue to delete posts. 

 

If you have something further to say take it to PM. Other members don't want to keep reading these off topic posts including myself.

 

I agree. I'm here to talk about the weather. 

[Geos]

On that note - probably about time to start a September discussion. Only 24 hours left for this month.

[BLI snowman]

Hour 300+?

 

Been a steady guiding hand there.

 

I would be seriously shocked if the 11th ends up cool. That day is hot every year now. Check the stats.

[wx_statman]

They certainly aren't identical months. June tends to be a steadier climb from spring into summer, while September can be either a long extension of it, or a quick descent into fall.

 

I love me a September like 2007. No readings above the mid-70s after the 11th. That month put me into a winter mood like no other September that I can recall. 

[Deweydog]

Time to sweat the Euro!

[Jesse]

I love me a September like 2007. No readings above the mid-70s after the 11th. That month put me into a winter mood like no other September that I can recall. 

 

That was an awesome September, one of my favorite ever.

[wx_statman]

Likewise, I've had enough of you. You're not stealthy, your ulterior motives shine right through your painfully forced verbiage.

 

Goodnight.

 

 

Thanks for that. Goodnight! 

[Jesse]

Time to sweat the Euro!

 

You can sweat for me, heading to bed soon.

[snow_wizard]

The temp has already fallen to the mid 50s here which has been the low temperature many days this summer.  Nice to see it get there before midnight.

[wx_statman]

That was an awesome September, one of my favorite ever.

 

That September is the reason I joined Western on 10/6/2007. I was so excited about the upcoming winter I needed a place to talk about it! 

[Deweydog]

You can sweat for me, heading to bed soon.

 

Don't look.  You'll sleep better.  

[wx_statman]

All I'm here to do is discuss the weather. I'm not enjoying this at all.

 

Unfortunately, someone felt the need to put on a circus performance merely for a little self-esteem boost and/or personal satisfaction.

 

OK Phil. I thought you said goodnight. 

[ShawniganLake]

You can sweat for me, heading to bed soon.

Through hour 192 it doesn't look very sweaty.  Sleep easy. 

[Phil]

OK Phil. I thought you said goodnight.

 

Goodnight.

[Deweydog]

If only statman's name was Ned, this would be too perfect.  Clearly a cinematic premonition of their eventually meeting...

 

[Geos]

The temp has already fallen to the mid 50s here which has been the low temperature many days this summer.  Nice to see it get there before midnight.

 

That's what it is here too. 56°

[snow_wizard]

FWIW my NE Pacific surface pressure index ended up the highest ever for any June - August back to 1948.  A few of the really high years include 1948, 1955, 1985, and 2010.  All winters that featured major Arctic blasts in the NW.

[wx_statman]

If only statman's name was Ned, this would be too perfect.  Clearly a cinematic premonition of their eventually meeting...

 

 

 

That was funny.

 

Jerk.  

[Phil]

If only statman's name was Ned, this would be too perfect. Clearly a cinematic premonition of their eventually meeting...

 

I lol'ed.

 

Needed that one, thanks.

[ShawniganLake]

A mild 62F here but the rain looks like it is getting pretty close. 

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how different it feels tonight.  The summer feel is gone.

 

The ECMWF looks pretty promising for it stay cool well into the month.  Looking possible we may get into a sunny regime with chilly nights and slightly below normal days as we get into the 6 to 10 day time frame.

[TT-SEA]

 

How I feel walking into this thread every other day.

 

 

You brought us pizza??   

[Jesse]

Will be interesting to see if PDX can pull off a sub-70 high today.

[Jesse]

Don't look.  You'll sleep better.  

 

Great run. Did away with the idea of a significant warm up toward the end.

 

Ensembles support this idea too.

[Deweydog]

Will be interesting to see if PDX can pull off a sub-70 high today.

They should. If they don't it would be pretty flukey.

[Jesse]

They should. If they don't it would be pretty flukey.

Yeah, the slow moving front could help out, lingering over the area through peak heating.

[Jesse]

MOS guidance has PDX hitting 70 today.

 

We're screwed.

[Deweydog]

MOS guidance has PDX hitting 70 today.

 

We're screwed.

Well if last Saturday, Sunday, Monday were any indication we should be in the mid 70's. Delightfully below average.