Timmy Supercell Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Been awhile since anything remotely noteworthy occurred, actually. Crater Lake beating a 67 year December snow record last Winter wasn't noteworthy? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 You sure you're not thinking of October 1950? In October of 1951, the NOAA reanalyses do indicate zonal flow undercutting that EPO block, but doesn't seem overly intense on any of the datasets...1950 on the other hand.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1D1675DF-6DA1-4C91-937C-6670D621712A_zpsxajs7ehk.png Yeah, that was another good example. Very strong jet that month. Nice winter followed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Crater Lake beating a 67 year December snow record last Winter wasn't noteworthy? I would say 9 months is awhile. Some of the heat this year has certainly been noteworthy: April, June, and late August all had impressive events. Otherwise been a forgettable run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Yeah, that was another good example. Very strong jet that month. Nice winter followed.Thing is, these relationships and correlations will change over time. The NH Hadley Cells, in particular, have migrated poleward by at least 10-15 degrees since the 1950s. Until this reverses, it'll be difficult to score a good PNW winter on zonal flow/-PNA alone. Obviously, not all zonal/+EPO Octobers will be followed by poor winters, but a lot of them are, especially nowadays. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The ECMWF looks quite a bit chillier than the GFS. Pretty much high and dry with a cool air mass over us after the trough leaves. At face value a lot of chilly nights and cool sunny or partly cloudy days. Pretty likely we will see a good active period thrown in sometime before mid month. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 I would say 9 months is awhile. Some of the heat this year has certainly been noteworthy: April, June, and late August all had impressive events. Otherwise been a forgettable run. The biggest story of the last few months has certainly been the incredibly resilient GOA ridge. A feature that will bring lots of fun this winter if the anomaly can continue. I'm just pleased the endless torching we saw for so long has come to an end. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Thing is, these relationships and correlations will change over time. The NH Hadley Cells, in particular, have migrated poleward by at least 10-15 degrees since the 1950s. Until this reverses, it'll be difficult to score a good PNW winter on zonal flow/-PNA alone. Obviously, not all zonal/+EPO Octobers will be followed by poor winters, but a lot of them are, especially nowadays. I agree. We want above normal heights over the NE Pacific in October. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 The biggest story of the last few months has certainly been the incredibly resilient GOA ridge. A feature that will bring lots of fun this winter if the anomaly can continue. I'm just pleased the endless torching we saw for so long has come to an end. Famous last words. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 As expected, 2007, 2005, 1998, etc are all showing up. Also some Niño years like 1992 and 1958. Though there's also 2008 showing up on 10/02, and 1970 on 10/27. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif1992 and 1958 were not Nino years. Not by this time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Coldest morning of the season at SEA... at least down to 48. Of course the normal low is now 49. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 PDX about six degrees warmer than the next coolest place in the metro area this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 1992 and 1958 were not Nino years. Not by this time.Well, like 2014/15, the atmosphere was in Niño mode, and the Niño3.4 SSTA anomaly was positive. In my opinion, for all intents and purposes, they were Niño winters. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 I would say 9 months is awhile. Some of the heat this year has certainly been noteworthy: April, June, and late August all had impressive events. Otherwise been a forgettable run. Oh, I thought this was about a longer period of time.. My bad. The anomalous April and the semi-severe t'storm in May were my highlights this year. So close to getting a real storm for once. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Jeez. The models sure have been doing a good job of washing out the late September and now early October troughs as the time frames have neared. The weather has been pleasant but nothing noteworthy in the cold department really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Jeez. The models sure have been doing a good job of washing out the late September and now early October troughs as the time frames have neared. The weather has been pleasant but nothing noteworthy in the cold department really. Very pleasant... 18 out of the last 21 days have been basically sunny here. Tomorrow and Sunday look pretty nice as well. Saturday is the only the day with a good chance of meaningful rain. Next week looks like more of the same too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted September 29, 2016 Report Share Posted September 29, 2016 Very pleasant... 18 out of the last 21 days have been basically sunny here. Tomorrow and Sunday look pretty nice as well. Saturday is the only the day with a good chance of meaningful rain. Next week looks like more of the same too. The sunshine looks glorious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Check out this short timelapse of the clouds up at Mt. Rainier today. Notice the low clouds at the bottom, and wave clouds at the top... https://youtu.be/5Z9kKHLQb_A 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 High of 58F today under sunny skies. It feels chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 High of 81 today. This could be the last 80+ day here. Off and on wind gusts over 30 mph too. Feels great in direct sunlight. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Randy... here is an update from Cliff Mass speaking right to you since you are heading out to the coast: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/wet-period-ahead.html Bottom line: if you keep away the coast, this weekend will be tolerable and eastern Washington should be pleasant. But wetter conditions are expected later in the week over both sides of the Cascades. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Jeez. The models sure have been doing a good job of washing out the late September and now early October troughs as the time frames have neared. The weather has been pleasant but nothing noteworthy in the cold department really. The trough is still looking to be pretty impressive. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 The trough is still looking to be pretty impressive.I'm coming around to liking the pattern for next week more. It just always sucks seeing a very cool, active pattern get way watered down. But there will still be lots of cool days and chilly nights. Pure heaven compared to the last two Octobers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Today was gorgeous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Chilly this morning! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Randy... here is an update from Cliff Mass speaking right to you since you are heading out to the coast: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/wet-period-ahead.html Bottom line: if you keep away the coast, this weekend will be tolerable and eastern Washington should be pleasant. But wetter conditions are expected later in the week over both sides of the Cascades. Argh...oh well, it's too late to go east instead of the coast. Hopefully we will get some dry breaks here and there. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Some Thunderstorms popping up in C. Oregon this evening. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Probably not a good idea for a vacation in the Bahamas next week. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_141_precip_p03.gif Or Cape Hatteras http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_180_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range. Yeah... that is quite the system offshore in 11 days! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p12/gfs_namer_264_precip_p12.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 00z GFS looks like a raging Niño. Legit NPAC jet extension in the long range. At least it's decently cool because much of the time the low is a bit north and or east of the awful position that gives us warm rain. I still wouldn't be surprised if it verifies better than that or is short lived. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 At least it's decently cool because much of the time the low is a bit north and or east of the awful position that gives us warm rain. I still wouldn't be surprised if it verifies better than that or is short lived. Plenty time for that to change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Some Thunderstorms popping up in C. Oregon this evening. Saw the strikes on Mark's CG map, I was surprised to see them. 09/25 is personally my latest t'storm here.. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 I'm coming around to liking the pattern for next week more. It just always sucks seeing a very cool, active pattern get way watered down. But there will still be lots of cool days and chilly nights. Pure heaven compared to the last two Octobers. Indeed. We had a lot of room for the models to degrade and still end up decent. Next week does look decently cool. Beyond that it will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 At least it's decently cool because much of the time the low is a bit north and or east of the awful position that gives us warm rain. I still wouldn't be surprised if it verifies better than that or is short lived.I'm seeing shades of 2010: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-09/0F060D03-CF17-4501-86B8-E0E2E0D23E32_zps0eh69sj0.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Canadian shows the monster approaching at day 10 as well. Good agreement for being that far out. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 PDX about six degrees warmer than the next coolest place in the metro area this morning. Amazingly SEA did alright this morning. It dropped to 42 here so a decently below normal day IMBY. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 I'm seeing shades of 2010: I would take my chances with a 2010-11 type winter again. It was decent and could have easily ended up even better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Some Thunderstorms popping up in C. Oregon this evening.Yup. Had a couple good shows off the ENE. Nocturnal storms are always the best. Got a good shot of one of the bolts, but posting photos here sucks. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 30, 2016 Report Share Posted September 30, 2016 Phil - I was going back to review 2010-11 and look at the November event in the archives and got side tracked by your "ramblings" thread. You were saying that global cooling started in 2012 and that arctic events would become much more common starting that winter will a major crash in 2016-17. It seems so far away at the time... but we have almost arrived at 2017. And to your credit... you are still talking about the same thing. Some things you said back then: - Winter 2012-13 will show no mercy, and should make the past 20+ winters look tame everywhere...but there is a question on when it sets in. Could be one of those warm fall-like patterns from NOV thru the New Year, before icy hell unloads suddenly and doesn't let go for several months.-The winters towards the middle/end of this decade and beyond are the ones to fear nationwide, though. -We will not immediately plunge 5-10 degrees centigrade into an ice age climate, but a notable decadal-scale cooling should initiate during winter 2012-13, with the rate increasing sometime around 2017 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.