SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary.Sort of like your short-sighted reactions to every CFS wobble? Give me a break. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I feel like a lot of the analysis on here is extremely short sighted and overly reactionary. I keep thinking there is a punch line coming here. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I keep thinking there is a punch line coming here.I'd love to hear his analysis if he thinks everyone else is so short sighted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'd love to hear his analysis if he thinks everyone else is so short sighted Weak Nina. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 CFS trended colder tonight. It's a lock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Nino 3.4 is almost down to -1.0 now. Impressive drop. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Interesting graphic. I wish the years used were given. I had no idea west based was so much better for us.It's not analog based, it's pattern based for a West or East based Nina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 It's not analog based, it's pattern based for a West or East based Nina. There were undoubtedly years that featured west based Ninas and ones that featured east based Ninas. I just wish they had listed the years that were used to come up with the graphics. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 There were undoubtedly years that featured west based Ninas and ones that featured east based Ninas. I just wish they had listed the years that were used to come up with the graphics.Unfortunately they did not list the years in the write up either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Unfortunately they did not list the years in the write up either I'm intrigued enough by the results that I will probably try to figure that out myself now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Mentioned awhile back that this Nina was looking west-based, and that was a good sign. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Cooling quickly now basin wide http://i.imgur.com/50QAmxB.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Cooling quickly now basin wide http://i.imgur.com/50QAmxB.jpg Western regions have really fallen off the cliff. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Latest CFS members have been holding the peak cooling into January as of late. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Western regions have really fallen off the cliff. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.pngMama Nature is trollolololing us. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 2, 2016 Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 Mama Nature is trolling us.Well then someone should put her on mod preview. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2016 I'm very pleased with the latest developments. No doubt we have a west based Nina going right now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted October 3, 2016 Report Share Posted October 3, 2016 I'm intrigued enough by the results that I will probably try to figure that out myself now.I am intrigued as well. Let me know if you find anything. Having a hard time finding stuff to read about west vs east based Ninas. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Nina looking much healthier... http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm intrigued enough by the results that I will probably try to figure that out myself now.As far as tropical forcing is concerned, having a west based Nina helps to keep the convection focused over the eastern IO/MC/western Pac region, which as a whole, is the sweet spot for us during the cold months to deliver a western through. With ENSO neutral or an East based Nina, forcing is more easily able to shift further east into the Pacific, which then shifts the mean trough east as well 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 As far as tropical forcing is concerned, having a west based Nina helps to keep the convection focused over the eastern IO/MC/western Pac region, which as a whole, is the sweet spot for us during the cold months to deliver a western through. With ENSO neutral or an East based Nina, forcing is more easily able to shift further east into the Pacific, which then shifts the mean trough east as wellYeah, I think in a -ENSO/+QBO, between 120E and 150E is ideal. Too much IO/EPAC risks a GOA trough, too much WPAC risks a big ridge. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Amazing how Nino 3.4 can't seem to go below -1.0. It has gotten there a number of times and then it's like it hits a barrier. Looks like Nino 3 just had some major cooling so that might get Nino 3.4 to go lower in the near furture. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well I'll be damned...The J, A, S ONI actually ended up at -0.5. Wasn't expecting that at all. Very possible we end up with the required 5 tri monthly -0.5 or below anomalies to call this an official Nina. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well I'll be damned...The J, A, S ONI actually ended up at -0.5. Wasn't expecting that at all. Very possible we end up with the required 5 tri monthly -0.5 or below anomalies to call this an official Nina.Wow, I'm incredibly surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 More of a -PDO look developing with time. Starting to see negative anomalies build along the west coast of North and South America. Should entrain into the ENSO regions eventually. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 So if it is -0.9 now than this is initializing wrong? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 11, 2016 Report Share Posted October 11, 2016 My prediction for a monthly ONI between -1.1C and -1.3C is looking somewhat better now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 15, 2016 Report Share Posted October 15, 2016 Sort of looks like the PDO is rising and ENSO is warming over the last week... http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 15, 2016 Report Share Posted October 15, 2016 Sort of looks like the PDO is rising and ENSO is warming over the last week... http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gifOctober is looking like it could be on a path for the PDO come in higher than September. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted October 15, 2016 Report Share Posted October 15, 2016 Sort of looks like the PDO is rising and ENSO is warming over the last week... Can you explain what is going on along the equator? Is this a La Nina or a developing El Nino? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2016 Can you explain what is going on along the equator? Is this a La Nina or a developing El Nino? That's only the 7 day change. ENSO SST's are still cold. Looking like a west based Nina is in the cards which is good news for the west. West based Ninas bring much colder winters to the NW than east based ones. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 That's only the 7 day change. ENSO SST's are still cold. Looking like a west based Nina is in the cards which is good news for the west. West based Ninas bring much colder winters to the NW than east based ones. I don't really think that's the case anymore. Waters off Peru have really been cooling, I don't think we can call this west based yet. It looks like a typical weak Nina at this stage. I don't think it matters though. Typically weak Ninas are the best for the PNW and that's almost a certainty at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 NWS Winter outlook: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter.It's about time the east coast cooks!!! Looking forward to a real winter again around here. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter.I don't think New England is going "bake", but the SE states very well could. It really depends on the exact state of the NAM/NAO (not just the phase state). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 It's about time the east coast cooks!!! Looking forward to a real winter again around here.You do realize that last winter was our warmest on record, right? Just saying. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 21, 2016 Report Share Posted October 21, 2016 You do realize that last winter was our warmest on record, right? Just saying. Exactly... 24 hours of heavy snow does not change the very warm reality of last winter out there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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