October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Where have you gone GOA high??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_204_precip_p03.gif

[Deweydog]

Almost like an arctic front that actually over-performs.

The baroclinic zone is incredibly presistent.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Storm watch! Just had to go down and move the garbage can to a less wind prone spot, the wind knocked it over and started blowing it up the driveway. Could be a few cans knocked over before the garbage pickup tomorrow morning. Definitely some strong gusts of wind out there now and even a bit of rain mixed in

[snow_wizard]

Almost like an arctic front that actually over-performs.  

 

No doubt that is what we want to see in the winter.  Ironically this might finally be what brings some actual below normal temps for us when it looked warm for the last several days.

[Deweydog]

Where have you gone GOA high??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_204_precip_p03.gif

That'll bring him back down to earth!

[snow_wizard]

Once again another overhyped hurricane. It's been 11 years since a hurricane actually truly delivered the goods. 

 

I could still see a direct hit on Georgia or SC.

[TT-SEA]

No doubt that is what we want to see in the winter.  Ironically this might finally be what brings some actual below normal temps for us when it looked warm for the last several days.

 

 

Definitely a shot on Monday and Tuesday now.     Looks like much nicer those days and we could get some clear nights.    And dry until Thursday.  

[TT-SEA]

That'll bring him back down to earth!

 

 

You need new material.    Stuff happens... good and bad.   We discuss it all.   No sacred cows here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I heard some grass huts were destroyed in Haiti!

[BLI snowman]

I dunno, for surge yeah but not for wind. The Labor Day hurricane back in 1935 brought winds over 200mph. People were sand blasted to death..literally stripped of their flesh. Andrew in 1992 also delivered gusts beyond 200mph.

 

And historically the U.S. only sees a landfalling Cat 4 about once per decade. Charley was the last one, Matthew could be the first one since. Only thee Cat 5 landfalls in the country's recorded history.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Remember when we all thought a bullet had been dodged with Katrina? 

[Deweydog]

You need new material. Stuff happens... good and bad. We discuss it all. No sacred cows here.

Start following your own advice. Everyone, their brother and twin sister knows GOA troughing is in our near future. You were just Jim-pricking up the place as usual. This calling-it-as-I-see-it act is embarrassing.

[TT-SEA]

Start following your own advice. Everyone, their brother and twin sister knows GOA troughing is in our near future. You were just Jim-pricking up the place as usual.

 

 

Its impressive looking... and its up next.      Its truly the complete opposite of a GOA high which has been dominant.    Interesting on its own merits.  

 

I also mentioned that Sunday looks like an over-performing arctic front... and it might allow for some cool days early next week.   And 1990 was a top analog recently.   

 

Anything else?

[TT-SEA]

Remember when we all thought a bullet had been dodged with Katrina? 

 

 

No.

 

How did we dodge a bullet there?  

[Jesse]

Start following your own advice. Everyone, their brother and twin sister knows GOA troughing is in our near future. You were just Jim-pricking up the place as usual. This calling-it-as-I-see-it act is embarrassing.

 

Wow. You sound like me!

 

Of course, you are completely right. Born again "reformed" Tim is almost even harder to stomach than the more blatant asshat Tim of old. At least with that one you felt like you were getting the real deal.

 

He is simply a collection of passive-aggressive smiley's and forced seeming small talk-esque banter these days. Embarrassing is the right word for it. Especially since everyone sees right through the act.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But if this storm destroys my ex in-laws vacation home near Daytona Beach it will earn major bonus points. 

[Phil]

I heard some grass huts were destroyed in Haiti!

Go f**k yourself.

[TT-SEA]

Wow. You sound like me!

 

Of course, you are completely right. Born again "reformed Tim is almost even harder to stomach than the more blatant asshat TIm of old. At least with that one you felt like you were getting the real deal.

 

And he is completely right about you as well... all the time.     You are harder to stomach than ever.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No.

 

How did we dodge a bullet there?  

 

Someone didn't pay attention that day. The storm moved through. NOLA was mostly spared and it was declared that NOLA had "dodged a bullet" and that the city "had been spared." Then the levees failed and a lot of poor people got flooded out. 

[TT-SEA]

Someone didn't pay attention that day. The storm moved through. NOLA was mostly spared and it was declared that NOLA had "dodged a bullet" and that the city "had been spared." Then the levees failed and a lot of poor people got flooded out. 

 

 

Ahhh... yes I remember that.  

[Phil]

There are 283 people dead in Haiti, and we're making jokes about grass huts?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Go f**k yourself.

 

My prayers are with the Haitian people

[Jesse]

There are 283 people dead in Haiti, and we're making jokes about grass huts?

 

Yeah, that was in awful taste. Par for the course for a white supremacist.

[GHweatherChris]

Wow. You sound like me!

 

Of course, you are completely right. Born again "reformed" Tim is almost even harder to stomach than the more blatant asshat Tim of old. At least with that one you felt like you were getting the real deal.

I actually have been thinking the last few days that the Tim of old seemed genuine and organic as annoying as it was, this new version feels forced and fake. And obviously now I am not the only one that feels that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most of them were niggers though. So it's all good!

 

Pretty sure there are many people of all racial backgrounds in Louisiana who would fall into the lower income brackets. 

[Jesse]

Didn't like 100,000 people die there in a 5.7 earthquake?

 

Those 283 would matter to you if two of them were your daughters. Just saying...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, that was in awful taste. Par for the course for a white supremacist.

 

I find that to be a pretty slanderous remark. But par for the course for a liberal afflicted by white guilt. Don't like someone, call them a racist!

[TT-SEA]

I actually have been thinking the last few days that the Tim of old seemed genuine and organic as annoying as it was, this new version feels forced and fake. And obviously now I am not the only one that feels that way.

 

 

We certainly have grown to love it here... makes a difference.   So does getting older.

 

I don't feel trapped... we can travel and can certainly move it we want.   We just don't have any inclination to move.      

 

I envision a forum where I can agree with Jim and call him out on things I disagree with and its all fine.   Past history seems to be a problem for some people... but ironically not between Jim and myself.

 

I literally have no animosity towards Jim.   None.   I feel nothing.  Jesse is pretty much the only person on here who is full of venom.   

[Phil]

Didn't like 100,000 people die there in a 5.7 earthquake?

What's your point?

 

It was much more than a 5.7, BTW.

[Deweydog]

Alrighty then...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those 283 would matter to you if two of them were your daughters. Just saying...

Goes without saying...

[Front Ranger]

I dunno, for surge yeah but not for wind. The Labor Day hurricane back in 1935 brought winds over 200mph. People were sand blasted to death..literally stripped of their flesh. Andrew in 1992 also delivered gusts beyond 200mph.

 

More importantly...both of the following winters delivered lowland snowstorms/Arctic air to the PNW!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's your point?

 

It was much more than a 5.7, BTW.

 

I could sneeze and houses would collapse....

 

I know it was 7.0...

[Jesse]

Goes without saying...

Have a little compassion. The Haiti comments were pretty bad. Unlike you.

[Phil]

I could sneeze and houses would collapse....

 

I know it was 7.0...

Sounds like a personal issue.

 

The loss of human life isn't something I'd joke about.

[GHweatherChris]

We certainly have grown to love it here... makes a difference. So does getting older.

 

I don't feel trapped... we can travel and can certainly move it we want. We just don't have any inclination to move.

 

I envision a forum where I can agree with Jim and call him out on things I disagree with and its all fine. Past history seems to be a problem with some people... but ironically not between Jim and I.

 

I literally have no animosity towards Jim. None. I feel nothing. Jesse is pretty much the only person on here who is full of venom.

Dewey hit it on the head.

 

Whatever.

 

Most on here see right through it no matter the amount of spin you try.

 

Its all good, keep on keeping on..... whatever helps your conscience.

[Phil]

And historically the U.S. only sees a landfalling Cat 4 about once per decade. Charley was the last one, Matthew could be the first one since. Only thee Cat 5 landfalls in the country's recorded history.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were more cat5's earlier in the 19th century. Coastal population was much smaller.

 

Also, cat4s used to be much more frequent.

[Deweydog]

Weather enthusiasts trivialize loss of life associated with extreme weather all the time. Playing the holier than thou role is pretty disengenuous.

[Front Ranger]

I could sneeze and houses would collapse....

 

I know it was 7.0...

 

Jesse went too far, but this does seem to be somehow funny to you. What's so funny about abject poverty, and a country that is literally defenseless against natural disasters?

[Phil]

Weather enthusiasts trivialize loss of life associated with extreme weather all the time. Playing the holier than thou role is pretty disengenuous.

So do lawyers.